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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #216,801
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:21am Feb 26, 2010 10:21am
Quoting rgitt05
I am trading from the higher TF's..The eurozone problem is getting worst and the month is almost over.. All the fundamentals are bad and PA held up for the FREEFALL..No indicators can help..EW will not help..

This beast is heading down...Gravity will attract it to the fib level..

Anyway, IMHO..

LOL

I say all kaboom to the 76.8% level 128.00

don't know about other's ew count, but mine gives me the same target you are looking at (higher TF).
  • #216,802
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:23am Feb 26, 2010 10:23am
Quoting hindart
i agree, but not in straight line. attached is my long term daily chart. i am still noob and opinions most welcome.
too far ahead. only a possibility.
  • #216,803
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:23am Feb 26, 2010 10:23am


Quoting pkimnyc
don't know about other's ew count, but mine gives me the same target you are looking at (higher TF).
[
  • #216,804
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:48am Feb 26, 2010 10:48am
So, in the cold light of day we have the following:

A 50% fibo from today's downmove at 135.70.
A second test of the Weekly 61.8% fibo line. (135.73)
A break of yesterday's support, before quickly retracing back up.
The possibility, (and it's only a possibility right now), of a pin bar on the Daily. Something above 135.90 will achieve this IMO.
Strong volume since the test of 134.60.
Some hefty bullish divergence on the Daily TF with o/s condition.
This bearishness for Sterling is not playing out through other Yen pairs, namely AY.


As is often said here, nothing moves in a straight line and for us to move considerably lower, a retrace is required. (139 - 140?), and other currencies have to play the same game.

I'm not sure when the proper rally will occur, but when it does, it will be considerable.

Just what I see in between all this PA madness.
  • #216,805
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:02am Feb 26, 2010 11:02am
let see..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBPJPY, H1_20100226_175957.png Size: 136 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #216,806
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:53am Feb 26, 2010 11:53am
Higher TF's tell the whole story when PA is heading..

Good Luck longs..

Sell all rallies..



Quoting donfriday
let see..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart#a.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart#b.gif Size: 26 KB
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  • #216,807
  • Feb 26, 2010 11:55am Feb 26, 2010 11:55am
Quoting rgitt05
Higher TF's tell the whole story when PA is heading..

Good Luck longs..

Sell all rallies..

and i could remember how many pips up and down in higher tf..not on straight line ...if it was straight line ur bmw will not get to it destination..lol
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #216,808
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:00pm Feb 26, 2010 12:00pm
Judging from last drop, it's going to 20 this time.
Interesting pair!
  • #216,809
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:22pm Feb 26, 2010 12:22pm
Correction: My Mercedes Benz will not get to the destination...



Quoting donfriday
and i could remember how many pips up and down in higher tf..not on straight line ...if it was straight line ur bmw will not get to it destination..lol
[
  • #216,810
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:23pm Feb 26, 2010 12:23pm
Intraday Market Thought - from Ashraf Laidi

2010.02.26 08:03: GBP tumbles across the board, further breaking away from its previous positive correlations with equities as the likelihood of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England haunts the currency. Readers of this website will recall our Dec 18 article http://bit.ly/5Meew3 laying out the case for why Sterling to Regain Whipping Boy Status in 2010. GBPUSD looks for preliminary target at $1.5130 after the $1.53 retracement had been shattered. Any rebound remains capped at $1.5270 and $1.5330. GBPJPY probes the 135.70 support (61.8% retracement of the rise from the 118.90 low to the 162.91 high. Subsequent target at 135.30, followed by 133.80. US prelim Q2 GDP expected to be revised to 5.6% from 5.7%. CANADA Q4 Current Acct exp C$ -8.7 bln from C$ -13.bln. USDCAD supported at 1.0540, a break of which to call up 1.0480. But upside remains intact, for renewed test of 1.0590 and 1.0630.

Also including wonderfully bearish UK yield view:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-02-26_132149.png Size: 60 KB
  • #216,811
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:31pm Feb 26, 2010 12:31pm
Thanks for the information Beljevina!!!

UK been quiet for a long time with this Greece crisis..Next week will be interesting since March starts Monday..

Enjoy the weekend!!



Quoting Beljevina
Intraday Market Thought - from Ashraf Laidi

2010.02.26 08:03: GBP tumbles across the board, further breaking away from its previous positive correlations with equities as the likelihood of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England haunts the currency. Readers of this website will recall our Dec 18 article http://bit.ly/5Meew3 laying out the case for why Sterling to Regain Whipping Boy Status in 2010. GBPUSD looks for preliminary target at $1.5130 after the $1.53 retracement had been shattered. Any rebound remains capped...
[
  • #216,812
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:49pm Feb 26, 2010 1:49pm
Took a long 135.55 for 200 pips take profit by next week.

It is a counter trend trade but i can see a sort of hammer forming on last 2 daily candles.
  • #216,813
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:56pm Feb 26, 2010 1:56pm
Quote
yes my friend

gbp/cad on monthly s2
gbp/jpy on monthly s3
gbp/usd on monthly s3
gbp index on monthly s3

do u still hesitate ? http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

Yup bro..me also brought GBP/JPY for 200 swing next week.

It is difficult to take a counter trend trade but need to do to grab some profits.
  • #216,814
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:03pm Feb 26, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting Beljevina
Intraday Market Thought - from Ashraf Laidi

2010.02.26 08:03: GBP tumbles across the board, further breaking away from its previous positive correlations with equities as the likelihood of further quantitative easing from the Bank of England haunts the currency. Readers of this website will recall our Dec 18 article http://bit.ly/5Meew3 laying out the case for why Sterling to Regain Whipping Boy Status in 2010. GBPUSD looks for preliminary target at $1.5130 after the $1.53 retracement had been shattered. Any rebound remains capped at...
I spoke with him once. He is really nice guy.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #216,815
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:06pm Feb 26, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
So, in the cold light of day we have the following:

A 50% fibo from today's downmove at 135.70.
A second test of the Weekly 61.8% fibo line. (135.73)
A break of yesterday's support, before quickly retracing back up.
The possibility, (and it's only a possibility right now), of a pin bar on the Daily. Something above 135.90 will achieve this IMO.
Strong volume since the test of 134.60.
Some hefty bullish divergence on the Daily TF with o/s condition.
This bearishness for Sterling is not playing out through other Yen pairs, namely AY.


As is often...
I'm hoping will fall through 134.93 (area of short-term support)
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #216,816
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:13pm Feb 26, 2010 3:13pm
here is a chart showing long term view on g-j - it should be self explanatory.

i marked all resistances by colored horizontal lines (and their correspondent timeframe):
- weekly = 138.99
- monthly = 141.11
- yearly = 148.71

it is obvious that this pair is heading down - honestly, i don't know where it's going but i will trade it with the trend. i will reconsider the main direction only after i see price breaking yearly resistance (purple line, currently @ 148.71).

in the short/medium term, bias is bearish UNLESS 136.50 is broken. first resistance is 138.99 area.

enjoy the weekend !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-j_pvp.gif Size: 25 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,817
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:29pm Feb 26, 2010 3:29pm
Thanks

Quoting Scrat
here is a chart showing long term view on g-j - it should be self explanatory.

i marked all resistances by colored horizontal lines (and their correspondent timeframe):
- weekly = 138.99
- monthly = 141.11
- yearly = 148.71

it is obvious that this pair is heading down - honestly, i don't know where it's going but i will trade it with the trend. i will reconsider the main direction only after i see price breaking yearly resistance (purple line, currently @ 148.71).

in the short/medium term, bias is bearish UNLESS 136.50 is broken. first...
[
  • #216,818
  • Feb 26, 2010 7:39pm Feb 26, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Agree mate if 142 give away there should not have been problem to test 160 level or monthly fibo 50% which is around 185.

As we all know gj likes to makes 76.4% retrace(130 area), we are now currently at 61.8% lets test 50% then we will see what next

btw on weekly huge bullish divergence is building making this whole decline from 163 as bullish flag with a lot of accumulation.

Also VIX does not support kaboom.
HELLO Friend.

You have changed your Bias from 120. to 185..( from BEAR to BULL)

Can I ask Why? besides the VIX....

Thanks
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #216,819
  • Feb 27, 2010 12:34am Feb 27, 2010 12:34am
Hi I am short on GBPJPY pair @ 134.846 with TP @ 133.588.Could someone please tell me if I am in the right direction.Thank You
  • #216,820
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:53am Feb 27, 2010 2:53am
Quoting Waheed
Hi I am short on GBPJPY pair @ 134.846 with TP @ 133.588.Could someone please tell me if I am in the right direction.Thank You

IMHO ..I think you are a little late on entry. That is why I dont like trading break-out and get caught with your pants down. You are on the right direction but looking at the price pattern we will be stuck in a consolidated range between the spike base at 136.7-134.9 for a few days. But if the spike base is breached ..we may see a full retracement to 137.3 or up to 139.
The green lines are old daily fractal resistance.
Hold on to your entry if you can stand the heat of the range. 136.7 will hold for a few days.
Just my 2 cents
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj spike.gif Size: 23 KB
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