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  • #141
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:15am Feb 25, 2010 10:15am
Hi Ctic

I have a lot of chart time in looking at fibs, compression, master candles etc. The grip on fibonacci reality is setting in.

In the posted 1h chart. Fibs were drawn from daily master candle. The highlited area was a bounce off the 61.8 fib. Would you have considered this a good entry? And if so where would you have placed your order?

For order placement I was thinking about the price breaking the 6 ema.

Rufus

Forgot chart. Next post
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #142
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:17am Feb 25, 2010 10:17am
There it is. It was hiding munder my coffee.

Rufus

ps. It gets amusing seeing the words that come up with myt big fingers pressing multiple keys. I have to be very careful with orders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hourly chart 61.8 fib.gif Size: 25 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #143
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:52pm Feb 25, 2010 11:52pm
As you know I am a die hard fib trader among other methods. But here is the daily chart with the monthly and quarterly fibs. The orange is the monthly fib and it is right on top of the 161.8. The quarterly fib (red) is right on the 138.2. Amazing that it was the stopping point. Now I am not saying that we couldn't head down to the 261 fib but it is usually unlikely. Now the quarterly 161.8 fib is another 200 pips down or so, so we could make a run for it. My thinking is that we may see a bit of buying for the next few days to week or so before we make the run to the quarterly 161.8, but like you said nothing has been confirmed yet. Time will tell if the bulls finally got back from vacation for a little before the bears resume their domination.

C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #144
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:57pm Feb 25, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting Rufus
There it is. It was hiding munder my coffee.

Rufus

ps. It gets amusing seeing the words that come up with myt big fingers pressing multiple keys. I have to be very careful with orders.
Rufus,

Knowing that E/U is a downtrend, I am assuming that the dark brown line is the 200 SMA. If so, that is probabaly where I would of placed the trade at. I would of set the stop loss above the master candle high. I usually use my shorter tf charts for the entry but based on that chart that would be the area.

C.
  • #145
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:29am Feb 26, 2010 12:29am
Quoting Ctic
Rufus,

Knowing that E/U is a downtrend, I am assuming that the dark brown line is the 200 SMA. If so, that is probabaly where I would of placed the trade at. I would of set the stop loss above the master candle high. I usually use my shorter tf charts for the entry but based on that chart that would be the area.

C.

Hi Ctic

I have been using 5m for entries once I see a signal.

These master candles with their fibbs is an intresting study. Thiss weekend I will get in some more chart time with them.

Thanks again

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #146
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:31am Mar 1, 2010 10:31am
Hi Ctic

Good morning to you and start of a brand new trading week. NFP week to boot.

I did not participate in this move. Doing business paper work.

Daily master candle fibs on 5 min chart. Retrace at 50. Confirms on 15m chart. (4h candle fib).

I think this is the stuff you are talking about.

Rufus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bounce on 50 fib.gif Size: 30 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #147
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:57pm Mar 1, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting Rufus
Hi Ctic

Good morning to you and start of a brand new trading week. NFP week to boot.

I did not participate in this move. Doing business paper work.

Daily master candle fibs on 5 min chart. Retrace at 50. Confirms on 15m chart. (4h candle fib).

I think this is the stuff you are talking about.

Rufus
Rufus,

You sound like you are getting the hang of it. I apoligize for being a bit distant this week but I am taking the week off from trading (Wife's orders). I need the break, but I do sneak a few trades in once she goes to sleep, since I stay up way later than her...Shhhhh don't tell her.

It appeared that you were correct with what you did, but I didn't analyze it closely since I am not at my trading computers with the charts. I may not check back in until next week so if I don't, I hope everyone gets massive green pips.

C.
  • #148
  • Mar 3, 2010 7:03am Mar 3, 2010 7:03am
Quote
Kingfisher,

Thanks for you post here and welcome.

The 1.5525 mark that I referred to was taht 138.2 fib line which was stop one. Now is when the timing comes into play. We are at the end of the month, end of the quarter and coming on the beginning of the next month. I believe we should see retrace here moving up through the fibs. I believe that we will go up to the 1.6295 to 1.6400 area and then beging the move downward. This Timing as I call it will nicely make the upper and lower shadows for the longer term candles.

I do play day by day, and...

Thanks CTIC for guidance.
  • #149
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:34pm Mar 4, 2010 11:34pm
Been kinda distant this week. I have checked in to other threads and have done some scalping, but for the most part I have taken the week off (mostly due to NFP coming up). Currently do have a couple longs in that I entered earlier in the week.

G/U

long 4860 (.1) sl amended to 4970
long 4890 (.4) sl amended to 4970
long 4953 (.3) sl amended to 4970
long 5010 (.2) sl amended to 4970

With NFP coming up I want to keep tight stops. Chances are I may get stoped out before but all well. Targets are 1.54 - 1.56 area.
  • #150
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:33pm Mar 5, 2010 12:33pm
Enjoying your journal.

Is there a thread on ff that demonstrates your scalping
method mentioned here?

I am only a scalper, my mindset can not handle
anything else..LOL, would love to know more
about your scalping method asap.

Brian

Quoting Ctic
Hi Rufus,

I do trade multiple countrypairs but G/U has always been my favorate.

I do have differnt trading styles. I usually stick with short and medium term trades. Long term for me is usually less than a day. On rare occurances (which we happen to be in one now) I keep the trades for more than a day.

Why do I do this? Because everyday price moves towards and hits the targets it will hit. Then Like clockwork, it retraces back into the candle. I.E. every candle retraces back into the previous day candle. Thus I like to take advantage of...
  • #151
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:53pm Mar 5, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting golden1
Enjoying your journal.

Is there a thread on ff that demonstrates your scalping
method mentioned here?

I am only a scalper, my mindset can not handle
anything else..LOL, would love to know more
about your scalping method asap.

Brian
Brian,

I have not created a thread yet that demonstrates my scalping method mentioned here. Basically, it is about the same method used here, only used on much shorter time frames. Many times I will scalp 3 to 7 pips, in and out, wait for the next. I will post info in here on it hopefully this weekend.
  • #152
  • Mar 5, 2010 6:10pm Mar 5, 2010 6:10pm
Welcome back to your thread. Hope you had a good break. With tax season I kinda doubt you had much of one.

Looking forward to your insight this upcoming week with the fibs and master candles.

This weekend I will be laying out how to employ all this into my current trading plan. So I might be posting some questions for you.

Thanks for all the help you have already given me.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #153
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:17pm Mar 5, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting Rufus
Welcome back to your thread. Hope you had a good break. With tax season I kinda doubt you had much of one.

Looking forward to your insight this upcoming week with the fibs and master candles.

This weekend I will be laying out how to employ all this into my current trading plan. So I might be posting some questions for you.

Thanks for all the help you have already given me.

Rufus
Thank you and your right, didn't have much of one. I did do some trading this week, just did a very light week. Any questions you have just ask and I will try to answer.

C.
  • #154
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:03am Mar 8, 2010 3:03am
Quoting Ctic
Been kinda distant this week. I have checked in to other threads and have done some scalping, but for the most part I have taken the week off (mostly due to NFP coming up). Currently do have a couple longs in that I entered earlier in the week.

G/U

long 4860 (.1) sl amended to 4970
long 4890 (.4) sl amended to 4970
long 4953 (.3) sl amended to 4970
long 5010 (.2) sl amended to 4970

With NFP coming up I want to keep tight stops. Chances are I may get stoped out before but all well. Targets are 1.54 - 1.56 area.
Added another long position 5159 (.3) SL 5045.

All other SL amended to 5045
  • #155
  • Mar 8, 2010 10:44am Mar 8, 2010 10:44am
Quote
Added another long position 5159 (.3) SL 5045.

All other SL amended to 5045

Mate, SL hit at 5045 but you have got great profits. Good trading.

It is a crazy market. After 2 days, i will not be surprised if G/U hits 1.53.
  • #156
  • Mar 8, 2010 11:32am Mar 8, 2010 11:32am
Quoting Ctic
Added another long position 5159 (.3) SL 5045.

All other SL amended to 5045
long 4860 (.1) stopped out @ 5045
long 4890 (.4) stopped out @ 5045
long 4953 (.3) stopped out @ 5045
long 5010 (.2) stopped out @ 5045
long 5159 (.3) stopped out @ 5045

Overall good trade, probably shouldn't of bought last long @ the top of the weekly pinbar. Even though I do still have a bullish opinion atm (could change if we break critical levels).
  • #157
  • Mar 8, 2010 11:34am Mar 8, 2010 11:34am
Quoting kingfisher
Mate, SL hit at 5045 but you have got great profits. Good trading.

It is a crazy market. After 2 days, i will not be surprised if G/U hits 1.53.
Hey Kingfisher,

Yeah, probably shouldn't of bought the last one, and I think we should still go up unless we break the 1.4990 level. Oh well, that is what happens when you trade. Like you said, still got nice profits and was good trade.
  • #158
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:21pm Mar 8, 2010 12:21pm
I really like to follow this thread,its precise and to the point.Anyway,i still haven't understood what happened;that the GBP/USD fell up to 150 pips,i really got caught.Any idea what happened.Its bad enough getting caught,but not knowing why makes it worse.Everyone kept talking of a break,i couldn't see it coming.!!!
  • #159
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:30pm Mar 8, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting mwafrika
I really like to follow this thread,its precise and to the point.Anyway,i still haven't understood what happened;that the GBP/USD fell up to 150 pips,i really got caught.Any idea what happened.Its bad enough getting caught,but not knowing why makes it worse.Everyone kept talking of a break,i couldn't see it coming.!!!
MW,

It is the beginning of the new weekly candle. Yes we ended last week with a pinbar but, proper retracement was still due, hence the drop. But, here is what we have to watch. We basically have an even top to the candles from last week and this week so far. This here is the point where we will determine what will happen for the week. Proper retracement completed IMHO so that it can continue it's way back up. However, time will tell if we are going to continue the downtrend. I will be flat until late Asian session and/or London session.

C.
  • #160
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:08pm Mar 8, 2010 6:08pm
I am starting to think that I will not enter into long term positions until we break out of this range either top side or bottom side. Although my short term views are still bullish to 1.54 - 1.56, it has been a very difficlut ride up. Until I get a longer term signal, I wil only be scalping. Bottom line is overall trend is still bearish, but I feel a small retracement is necessary for the monthly candle. Time will tell. Right now, all charts seem very much bearish from the 5m up to the monthly.
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