USDCAD trend reversal?

Yes they do solve it. This is the second time a technical issue happened and they were very professional and credited me with the deserved amount. But I almost got a heart attack!!!! When I saw the Margin Call Banner!!

Hi,

I've been expecting a fall in oil as well - Just wondering if you had any views on the oil PA today. Fundamentally everything seemed to point to a down day with oil stocks increasing more than forecast and housing starts being down following on from yesterdays consumer confidence shocker so I'm a bit puzzled at the rise. Any views on where we go from here much appreciated ..

Dode

Could have been that the 'whisper' number was calling for a larger increase than the actual. Another possibility, which is similar, is the market was expecting this as oil sold off yesterday vs. today.

FOTO, as usual I thank you for the plethora of insightful information that you provide in this forum.

Venge: the Globe link you generously provided, offset info that I was reading today. I shall attempt to send the link tonight.

One must decide one's own trading style. I don't have "deep pockets" or a Wells Fargo truck for a wallet. Therefore; I shall continue to "bottom feed"
& fight for every pip to build up my account, based on short TF tekkies.

However; from the wealth of quality information contributed, I temper my trade decisions with a look @ the Wly & Mly charts to see if any change might be upcoming.

FOTO: chicken entrails may soon become a commodity; so. I'm thinking of purchasing a "chicken ranch" in Nevada.

Venge: if there appears to be a possibilty of a 2nd leg down, I'm thinking it might be profitable to start a coffee shop in the financial districts.
Called " Aristotle's" or "Socrates'" & specializing in Hemlock teas/lattes.

i changed my view now. double top. lol.
didn't even see that till a second ago. it was a speculative H&S of course.
but ya, 80 is a good number to go to 70 , time for reversal. gold maybe can bring it down.

I'm in! Sounds profitable, and as a snack we could offer wills...

Foto: Interesting insight!

Acouple more links if anyone wants a good read:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...DDLETopStories

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...i-Germany.html

I haven't been dipping in the USD/CAD pond recently...been shorting EUR/USD and trying to catch another SNB foray into the EUR/CHF...Looks like they might jump in if we see a break of 1.4625. Or not...

i think good bull flag on usd/cad

Thanks Venge for the beauty response,eh!
Going to go home now, but shall read the posts tomorrow.

Iffen you be up & looking @ charts- FOTO left great info yesterday, re: G/Cad & G/Aud. I just glanced @ their Dailies - looks like a retrace up ( STO o/s; MacD o/s & curling up) BUT ema's down. Sell rallies my cyber friend.

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/curren...umer_surprises

Good morning,
Everyone is in good humor I see. Funny stuff.

Peering at the entrails there appears to be a shift in perception that easy money may not be the panacea for all the evils afflicting markets. There is some substance issues that are larger then an asprin or a hot toddy will cure.
USD/CAD dailies are building support in the 1.05 -1.06 area Wifts of deflation?
Bandaids are not going to be enough to hold the Euro together and old wounds and deep hurts are surfacing.
To good to be true is ringing in Asia, in the distance yet, but it is there.
AUD/USD has lost some steam and upwards momentum is stalling.

The counterattack will come as those with vested interests command us to listen or be crushed by their assets. Well we all can trade guerrillla style and duck behind a tree for cover. Then dash out and strike from behind enemy lines.

Weakness in retail and jobs and money growth are signaling all is not over yet.

Cash in a bank is always better then the charge of the Light Brigade, just not very gallant or romantic.

i am closing 1.0500= +160 pip and 1.0600= +60 pip positions, holding other positions from 1.0450 to the next month S.L break even T.P 1.0800 for some and other to 1.0950...pips to everybody

That HPI(Fannie Mae + Freddie Mac) with a drop of -1.6% coupled with the posibility of 12 million mortgages having negative equity is a serious debt problem. The residential real estate overbuilding is a long way from being absorbed. These are aspects of a deflation that will be ongoing.
The evidence is compiling for a real event.

Aud/Usd lost luster today and made the first test for lower levels. Sentiment is shifting

ps. Fx broker it only took you six days to reach p.t. that you thought would take 2 or 3 weeks. This market is moving. Congrats

FOTO: just finished watching a nightly business report & the news was full of the bonuses that the banks were awarding their execs.

So things must be really improving because in my world, those that do their, accordingly, rewarded ( those who are not are terminated); right?

Ergo- the big boys are saving the global economy- or saving something-

There should be some sort of attention awarded to these financial Neroes!

The Pulitzer prize for you Scarecru, this is why Alice in Wonderland was such a big hit. This stuff has been going on forever.

A trade based upon the intervention theory may be about to unfold. The Euro/Gbp is spiking upwards. If the Euro is being artificialy supported, as per theory then it has been pushed up in value against the Gbp as well. So if the GBP/USD stabilizes after having broke badly the past few days or even reverses a bit. Keep an eye on the Euro/Gbp for it to start falling as European selling then goes aganst the Euro.

We of course can always believe official GDP numbers since they include fiscal stimulus via govt. debt and think the world is just really fine. It is an option for those inclined.

Have a great weekend all readers and posters.

The post London close push against the USD is underway, Usd/Cad appeared to be under accumulation, so if it gets knocked down today
may just get some cheap USD's. Similar in price action to last Friday selloff.

GBP is up off lows and this again may be opportunity to short GBP/USD on GBP strength.

Euro has had a nice run down so there may be profit taking underway as well. If one is trading USD bull then any USD weakness means low risk entry on retracement of primary trend.

Well it is Sunday morning and the validity of the deflation theme must have some support in the real world numbers. Otherwise it is of no value to trade a scenario based viewpoint that is a fiction.

Deflation is an ongoing process of lower prices for goods and services. The person that wins is the person who losses the least.

Since much of the worlds economies are based upon consumption what drives price higher or lower is the mechanics of the process.

In an inflation the consumer decides to live beyond their means. Assuming debt to purchase today what will cost more tommorow and paying back the debt with devalued currency. A transfer of asset from saver to debtor. This has been fully supported by Government institution and central bankers for decades. It has been the way of life for many if not most.

Easy money = cheap money + easy terms + psychology = consumption

produced
overindulgence = debt default = bank crisis = consumer retrenchment = government broke

Government panic produced
Nationalization of economy = breakdown in psychology = further retrenchment

Where are we now?
Is it still easy money?
We have cheap money, but consumer and small business loans are tight and prices are falling. Is consumer psychology returning to precrisis levels, not yet (past weeks numbers)

Do things change? This financial crisis has shocked the consumer from their stupor. Wages have fallen, jobs are not available, and servicing existing debt has become a paycheck to paycheck ordeal. Is this an environment that is condusive to assuming more debt? A bit early to say people are not in lockdown mode at this time.

What is ahead? The consumer can tread water and do the utmost to service debt and live in that middle world of neither heat nor cold. They might also start to question if living in debt from cradle to grave benefits them in a positive fashion.

For the Deflation scenario to take hold the consumer must decide that enough is enough it is time to get the financial house in order. If the shop till you drop impulse must get satiated, there are flea markets to express ones self. Is aquiring McMansions to be continued, there will have to be data concerning housing to support that notion.

This weeks data streams will supply evidence for where the truth is. Jobs data will determine the ability of the consumer to make choice.

What the market perceives and how it reacts is what is of most interest. Bailout mentality may continue and certainly has its biggest supporter in Bernanke and Obama. If this does not materialize then a turn is being confirmed.

In the bewildering world of forex it pays to have a compass.

Not today. Until the love affair with the Euro ends the inflation forever people control the markets.

For better or worse will make a post anyway. The continued selling of both the Euro/Cad and Gbp/Cad and the ongoing support of Euro/Usd in the American market makes the winner the Long Cad.
The inflation is the only outcome market bias remains the dominant process.
Overnight selling of Euro/Usd was reversed this morning (e.s.t) The USD index daily chart remains solidly up. The 8 hour chart exhibiting consolidation with slight upwards direction. Either the USD index will change direction or at some point a reversal in commodity currencies will occur. They cannot keep going in different directions.
How much is mania in commodities and how much is fact reflecting actual conditions would be a wonderful analysis if it were possible to do so.

Something has got to give. I still am betting that Europe is where the debt crisis will strike next. Weak jobs supported only by government subsidy, combined with little prospect that civilian populations will bite the bullet are a toxic combo. Unlike in America where the Fed believes that there exist institutions exempt from the common peoples plight, Europe remains divided between elites and the masses. Stones may still be thrown in Europe.

If the Euro cracks then commodities are sure to follow against the USD. Commodity countries remain too small to become reserve currencies.

Central bank intervention in support of the Euro may be the reason that this has not happened as of yet. The Fed to date denies intervention as that would imply picking winners and losers in the global markets and not something a reserve currency does. The week is not over and the juicy stuff is yet to come for economic releases.

Evening FOTO:

As usual great input from you (in my opinion). Your info has allowed me to
re-think trade decisions that I base on the tek analysis. Thank you.

Just finished glancing @ some of my bank sheets & noted that gm. bank of ny is also suggesting: " US/CAD may very well test parity later this year once risk-appetite rebounds & USD loses its safe-haven bid".

My initial tek analysis suggests small shorts (which I may place upon further chart study tonight).

However; I FOTOlized the aforementioned quotation & deemed "may very well..." is more of a guess than a prediction.

Also,"...once R-A rebounds & USD loses safe-haven bid", my initial read was that parity was a "given" target. It may very well be! - my FOTOthink rejoinder ( to myself)- " WILL risk appetite rebound & WILL USD lose its "safe-haven" status?". So I shall just wade into the pool ( US/CAD short rather than dive in).

Morning Scarecru,
Always trade your own game. Take into consideration others thoughts because they may give a view that was not in your own mind.
But ultimately you have to trade from where you believe. Otherwise you will end up doubting your own position and short circuiting a possible win.

There are times that one has to hold in the face of adversity, and times to accept that adversity and yield to it. Developing that sixth sense makes a winner.

I use a scenario but treat it as another indicator. The only real risk to using one is sometimes it becomes the driver rather then paying attention to the market. That is called getting stuck in scenario. There are those times however when the market is all over the place, and the scenario helps ride out the confusion. There are times it is even right on target and those become good days.

As for loonie parity, I am shorting NZD/USD now as the test of Asia weakening. The testing for commodity weakness continues.

The Challenger jobs report has credibility. It is possible that the Bull USD scenario that envisions the Fed exiting from its ward of the state policy to normalization will occur.
This still leaves Europe in a slowdown.

A normalization removes liquidity monetary policy as the Feds' function.

Does RSI in overbought get more overbought, what's the difference between pure technicals and following fundamentals which shift as well?

Only real question to be answered is does what the trader use to trade help them make profitable trades?

For example, suppose you were an unemployed carpenter. Out of work, your lifes a shambles. In danger of losing your home. So what do you do, you trade forex, time for a new outlook. As a human being could you possibly trade that the U.S, was going to enter a period of sharply rising inflation? That notion runs contrary to what you are experiencing, so it would be impossible to trade.

But if you traded a scenario that was in alignment with the life you were experiencing it would be easy to trade. So we look for justification in the markets for what we believe. We create our own realities. As one master trader said, everybody gets what they want from the market. From the market wizards series.
Have a good day