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  • #101
  • Dec 20, 2005 7:27am Dec 20, 2005 7:27am
Quoting piotruslalka
Has anyone come up with a very high probability system using vantage point? For example, when the short term trend is up and the medium term trend is much higher with an index of 1? And then going long at the predicted low the median of the predicted low and high?

I know many people have posted using vantage point's predicted high and lows to that produce many false alerts, but in the end it turns out profitable. For example, Fiji's sample is using buying at the bottom of the range and selling at the top and vice versa.

And have any other known indictors been used to verify the trend Vantage Point sets up?

Fiji you pointed out that
Is this information about James16's PA analysis and such in the forex factory forums. If so can i get a link to the thread. I am still a newbee to this site, but I am hoping to eventually read most of it. I have a lot of free time around Christmas break so that should be good catching up time.

Thanks a lot everyone and my Vantage Point should be at my house tomorrow! I'm very excited.
this is the thread here at FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=2331

I would suggest that after you get your VP, you study the predicted high and low information it provides. I think you will find that although the number of daily predictions that come close are not as many as some people hope for, there are enough to make some very nice, safe and profitable trades. I am currently working with 10 pair, and I have at least three really good trades a day using the methodology described by FT. It's early in the process........but so far I am pleased with the initial results.
  • #102
  • Dec 20, 2005 11:29am Dec 20, 2005 11:29am
The sample system FJ has made use of sounds good. I have a question about plotting the predicted high's and low's and trading as these levels are reached.

FJ would you also want to consider the strenght of any trend, if the market was truly ranging then the high and low would be foolproof .. (haha almost) ..but usually there is a rend and depending on the strength of that trend selling the predicted high could get you blown away pretty quick in a trend move..

I understand you use a stop, but if you where to be more selective considering the direction of the trend would you expect to see even better results?
  • #103
  • Dec 20, 2005 3:17pm Dec 20, 2005 3:17pm
Quoting Rocket
The sample system FJ has made use of sounds good. I have a question about plotting the predicted high's and low's and trading as these levels are reached.

FJ would you also want to consider the strenght of any trend, if the market was truly ranging then the high and low would be foolproof .. (haha almost) ..but usually there is a rend and depending on the strength of that trend selling the predicted high could get you blown away pretty quick in a trend move..

I understand you use a stop, but if you where to be more selective considering the direction of the trend would you expect to see even better results?
I will not presume to answer for FT here, but he has written that his own experience taught him the wisdom of trading WITH the trend. If the trend is up, he observed that often the price would bounce near the low and then move quickly to the predicted high and beyond. Trying to trade against the trend could lead to the scenario you describe, that is, selling near the high, only to have the price go even higher, stop you out, then turn around and head lower. This has happened to me in my limited time of testing. I have subsequently avoided this either by watching the charts as the price approaches the target price, and waiting for a confirmed entry or choosing not to try to trade against the trend. HTH!
  • #104
  • Dec 20, 2005 3:39pm Dec 20, 2005 3:39pm
Thanks for responding .. but I not sure I explained correctly..

It is my understanding from the sample trading that FJ listed that he would buy at either the projected high and the projected low, not paying any attention at all to the trend.

Pls correct me if I misunderstand his posted system.

And so I am asking would it not work better to trade only in the direction of the trend?

thks
  • #105
  • Dec 21, 2005 3:57am Dec 21, 2005 3:57am
Quoting BeachBum
I have done a little research on the idea of entering at the mid-point of the predicted trading range and trading WITH the trend (as emphasized by FT). My findings indicate this would be profitable, although the pip gain would be less than trading between the two predicted extremes. BUT the quality of the trade would be greatly increased. I believe it is noteworthy that most days when the data is released (around 6 PM EST) the value of many currency pairs is very close to the mid-point. Trading from that point with the trend to the predicted extreme would have good results. I will research this more and report.
The postings here have thus far been very helpful. Thank you and please continue to do so!
This is one of those situations where I've traded successfully by waiting for price action signals combined with overlapping fib levels. (james16 refers to these as fib confluences) Regardless without a high probability buy or sell signal to give a sense of market direction and strength you'd need stops about the same size as your targets. I have had good success trading strong signals to close to predicted s/r. However I still better like the prospect of doubling both the stop size (by trading a larger part of the daily range by trading closer to daily s/r) and the target size since it improves the overall risk/reward ratio. Risk 20 pips to gain 50 or risk 35 to gain 100.

FT
  • #106
  • Dec 21, 2005 4:16am Dec 21, 2005 4:16am
[quote=bluemeasure]
Quote
From your response to BeachBum's post, Fiji, there seems to be quite a bit of discretionary trading going on and I believe that’s in part the reason you’re able to make consistent good use of VantagePoint. Because you’re an experienced Forex trader, it seems to me that you’d do well with or without the s/w; it just enhances your results.
Indeed I think day trading VP requires a market feel that includes a sense of trend and related reversals to get up to speed quickly. I'm pretty confident that with some work (like you've been doing) the discretion can be defined by rules.
------------------------

Quote
I trade mainly Equities and have 3 algorithms that I run after the close each day. These are designed to give multiple R (3R+) type trades. They don’t signal new trades every day, but when they do, it’s usually a profitable trade. Unfortunately, these algorithms did not port into the world of Forex. Nevertheless, my preference is to take a trade only when such an algorithm indicates the odds are highly in my favour. This is also what attracted me to James16 price action concept, the idea of “rifle shots vs. shotgun”, “hiding in the bushes” approach waiting for the right trade, etc. Thus, I was looking for a way to use VantagePoint’s neural network’s output in a similar manner; essentially to use it only on the days it’s right and then key in the corresponding limit order trades at 8:30am my time (JST) and walk away from the computer.
I think this can be done effectively with VP. I got as far as only needing to check the trades every four hours or so to determine exits. I don't think it will take a lot of refinement to get to checking trades every 8 to 12 hours.

Quote
There are days when VantagePoint is right on the money (pun intended ) , i.e. where predicted low was close to actual low on an uptrend day and vice-versa. I set out to find if there was a way to filter out the days when the report turned out to be off. I spent a bit of time over the week-end looking at different combinations of the report's neural indicator output and here’s the gist of what I found using sample historical EURUSD data from Sep15/05 to Dec07/05:

Filtering the data:

1) Both the EURUSD’s PFSDiff and PTMDiff indicators should be neg. or pos.
2) I had an inkling that using the DX’s output to confirm the trade might be beneficial and this panned out. Just as e.g. the Nikkei and USDJPY are highly correlated, so it is in this case as well. The filter should also ensure that the PFSDiff and PTMDiff indicator for DX are pointing in the same direction (and opposite to the EURUSD’s because the two are neg. correlated)
Good idea for augmenting the less predictable JPY pair.

Quote
3) The EURUSD Index Indicator did not provide any added value. It did not enhance the filter in any way I could find. Adding the DX’s Index Indicator, however, filtered out a few more off days, but also filtered out a couple of highly profitable days as well.
True.

Quote
4) Overall, the higher the absolute value of the Strength Indicator, the more likely the PFSDiff and PTMDiff indicators are to be right. However, this is not always accurate so it filters out too many good days, so I chose not to include the Strength Indicator in the filter.
I could never find much correlation with the Index indicator. It seemed to behave more like a lagging indicator.

Thanks for your comments.

FT
  • #107
  • Dec 21, 2005 4:23am Dec 21, 2005 4:23am
Quoting BeachBum
this is the thread here at FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=2331

I would suggest that after you get your VP, you study the predicted high and low information it provides. I think you will find that although the number of daily predictions that come close are not as many as some people hope for, there are enough to make some very nice, safe and profitable trades. I am currently working with 10 pair, and I have at least three really good trades a day using the methodology described by FT. It's early in the process........but so far I am pleased with the initial results.
Very well put. I could not say it any better. People usually want to trade too often. I noted that with the statistics Bluemeasure posted a while back that out of 59 trading days there were around 22 or so low risk entries (less than 25 pip stops) in just one currency. Apply some basic means (like trend determination) of reducing the number of entries or maximizing the profitable days and you can sustain a lot of losing trades with the huge home runs this software scores a few times a month per currency.

FT
  • #108
  • Dec 21, 2005 4:31am Dec 21, 2005 4:31am
Quoting BeachBum
I will not presume to answer for FT here, but he has written that his own experience taught him the wisdom of trading WITH the trend. If the trend is up, he observed that often the price would bounce near the low and then move quickly to the predicted high and beyond. Trying to trade against the trend could lead to the scenario you describe, that is, selling near the high, only to have the price go even higher, stop you out, then turn around and head lower. This has happened to me in my limited time of testing. I have subsequently avoided this either by watching the charts as the price approaches the target price, and waiting for a confirmed entry or choosing not to try to trade against the trend. HTH!
Yes I agree. I found that one of the fast ways to rack up losses was to be in the market too often when it is going against your position. Trend is important. That said when the trend is weak, consolidating, or sideways the daily range is often tested on both ends without the barrier breaking strength that causes breakouts (trends). This is where PA can help a lot when trading against the trend because it gives you confidence whether the market is likely to respect the daily predicted s/r or not.

FT
  • #109
  • Dec 21, 2005 4:46am Dec 21, 2005 4:46am
Quoting Rocket
Thanks for responding .. but I not sure I explained correctly..

It is my understanding from the sample trading that FJ listed that he would buy at either the projected high and the projected low, not paying any attention at all to the trend.

Pls correct me if I misunderstand his posted system.

And so I am asking would it not work better to trade only in the direction of the trend?

thks
Without going back to read what I wrote I'll say this:

Yes it is better to trade with the trend but there are counter trend opportunities. The best countertrend opps are usually during daily or weekly chart reversals. During these times a bounce off the daily high or low in a reversing market can result in some very fast profits during higher volatility markets where market pressure is close to equal as the market is turning. This is sometimes also true during consolidation periods.

At first that is exactly what I did (after running a statistical analysis of the reliability of the predicted daily range) to see what size stops and targets were most likely to work. However I quickly began to implement a lot of discretion on entries and, after too many stop outs in breakout situations, I used a quick and dirty (as explained) method of trend determination. Of course watching the market every day pretty much was all I needed to get a sense of trending, consolidation, and ranging. In the end I rarely bracketed both the predicte high and low. I almost always came up with a bias for market direction that day. In ranging markets I'd often wait for the market to challenge the s/r and watch what kind of strength it had. Often I'd see the high or low challenged and then a bounce and then challenged a second time. If the second challenge was weaker I'd watch for an entry opportunity when I'd seen the challenge failure confirmed.

FT
  • #110
  • Dec 21, 2005 12:19pm Dec 21, 2005 12:19pm
I've been carefully reading posts here from the last few days and really appreciate everyone's input and observations. Please allow me to add some more:
So far in the VP learning process, I can almost absolutely say that if I wait in the bushes like a lion ready to pounce in anticipation of price reaching a predicted high or low, carefully observe price action at this point and then enter after the bounce (best with the trend) that I get a good trade. This is without regard for s/r, fibs or other indicators. I am not saying these are unnecessary, because when I add them into the mix, I have greater confidence in the quality of my trades. But I am really trying to use the VP info in as simple a way as possible. The downside to this is having to monitor entries, exits and trades in general more carefully. I do this in the evening EST and then again very early the next AM as the European market is slowing down. I want to be able to do what FT wrote about: trades that can be entered and not monitiored for 8 to 12 hours. This, I believe, is attainable; but it is going to be a process with a simple beginning. Baby steps first!
  • #111
  • Dec 21, 2005 4:34pm Dec 21, 2005 4:34pm
Fiji or Beachbum or anyone else working on a strategy with Vantage Point, do any of you have a strategy using the predicted 10-day moving average?

It seems as though if there is a highly probable way to enter trades based on the predicted moving average and finding a good place to put stops then the predicted 10-day moving average would be a good indicator. It seems to catch some very nice moves. And this is what they seems to advertise.

Any hints?

Thanks

P.S. i received Vantage Point yesterday and most of the day I have been trying to find a strategy that would work well as often as possible. I am leaning towards less entries and higher probablities of the trades. I wouldn't mind trading less, but with better setups.
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
  • #112
  • Dec 22, 2005 7:11am Dec 22, 2005 7:11am
Quoting piotruslalka
Fiji or Beachbum or anyone else working on a strategy with Vantage Point, do any of you have a strategy using the predicted 10-day moving average?

It seems as though if there is a highly probable way to enter trades based on the predicted moving average and finding a good place to put stops then the predicted 10-day moving average would be a good indicator. It seems to catch some very nice moves. And this is what they seems to advertise.

Any hints?

Thanks

P.S. i received Vantage Point yesterday and most of the day I have been trying to find a strategy that would work well as often as possible. I am leaning towards less entries and higher probablities of the trades. I wouldn't mind trading less, but with better setups.
piotruslalka.......

I have been using the 10 day as a general trend indicator, but would like to develop it's use further, so like you welcome observations on this. Another thing I have learned is that the best trades seem to appear in the first six hours after data is collected, in fact my very best trades have been on the JPY pairs. The predicted H/L prices have put me in during the early hours of the Asian session and yielded profit in the early hours of the Euro session. Last night was a good example. Only one trade, but 75 pips gained.......and if I had been watching the charts at around 10 & 12 PM EST, I would have manually entered 4 additional trades (missed entry orders by single digit pips) with excellent profit results. This is not the ideal scenario because I want to place entry orders and then go do something else, BUT an evening in front of the PC would have been very profitable.
I'm posting these observations hoping that in some small way others are helped, and I continue to benefit from the postings of others. Thanks!

PS............Mr. P, interestingly I am your neighbor. I'm in TC
  • #113
  • Dec 24, 2005 1:13am Dec 24, 2005 1:13am
[quote=BeachBum]
Quote
So far in the VP learning process, I can almost absolutely say that if I wait in the bushes like a lion ready to pounce in anticipation of price reaching a predicted high or low, carefully observe price action at this point and then enter after the bounce (best with the trend) that I get a good trade. This is without regard for s/r, fibs or other indicators. I am not saying these are unnecessary, because when I add them into the mix, I have greater confidence in the quality of my trades.
I could not agree more. If you have any kind of decent means of gauging market volatility and trend direction, then using the PDH or PDL from VP's output you are going to get enough winners to outstrip the losers. It is not too hard to get a sense of trend when you put a trade on from a bounce off the high or low because when it is counter trend it is like trying to surf a wave in a rip current.

Quote
But I am really trying to use the VP info in as simple a way as possible. The downside to this is having to monitor entries, exits and trades in general more carefully. I do this in the evening EST and then again very early the next AM as the European market is slowing down. I want to be able to do what FT wrote about: trades that can be entered and not monitiored for 8 to 12 hours. This, I believe, is attainable; but it is going to be a process with a simple beginning. Baby steps first!
I think this is very doable. One possiblity is if you open an account through fxengines you can use manual entries but also have access to a number of contextual exit scenarios which could just be the way to contain your trades. Once the bugs are out of mt4 this may also work with brokers that support them. The difference is that with fxengines there is so much redundancy built in to keep your trading engine connected to the mm that there is almost zero danger of your connection being blown offline thereby keeping a trade open that you'd want closed or vice versa.

FT

FT
  • #114
  • Dec 24, 2005 1:23am Dec 24, 2005 1:23am
[quote]
Quoting piotruslalka
Fiji or Beachbum or anyone else working on a strategy with Vantage Point, do any of you have a strategy using the predicted 10-day moving average?
For me not yet. However my next project after completing a satisfactory and more rule based system for day trading VP is to develop a set of rules to govern when a trade is left on. I did not have very good success by arbitrarily taking trades that "looked good" and let them run multiple days because I didn't really have any rules to determine probability. Most likely would combine a predicted ma cross with a daily or weekly PA setup, and look for an entry close to the extreme of the daily predicted range and then ride the trend with stops behind the predicted range of the market. I'd most likely treat it as a separate system using much wider stops and look for a combination of exit signals and/or continuation setups to manage the trade.

Quote
It seems as though if there is a highly probable way to enter trades based on the predicted moving average and finding a good place to put stops then the predicted 10-day moving average would be a good indicator. It seems to catch some very nice moves. And this is what they seems to advertise.
Any hints?
Thanks
I think the advantage of using the daily range as a low risk entry point is probably the best way to get into the longer term trends and maintain a better risk/reward ratio. Generally VP is pretty good at reaching those ranges when the market is turning.

Quote
P.S. i received Vantage Point yesterday and most of the day I have been trying to find a strategy that would work well as often as possible. I am leaning towards less entries and higher probablities of the trades. I wouldn't mind trading less, but with better setups.
That is right on the money.

FT
  • #115
  • Dec 24, 2005 1:30am Dec 24, 2005 1:30am
Quoting BeachBum
piotruslalka.......

Another thing I have learned is that the best trades seem to appear in the first six hours after data is collected, in fact my very best trades have been on the JPY pairs. The predicted H/L prices have put me in during the early hours of the Asian session and yielded profit in the early hours of the Euro session. Last night was a good example. Only one trade, but 75 pips gained.......and if I had been watching the charts at around 10 & 12 PM EST, I would have manually entered 4 additional trades (missed entry orders by single digit pips) with excellent profit results. This is not the ideal scenario because I want to place entry orders and then go do something else, BUT an evening in front of the PC would have been very profitable.
I'm posting these observations hoping that in some small way others are helped, and I continue to benefit from the postings of others. Thanks!

PS............Mr. P, interestingly I am your neighbor. I'm in TC
I agree completely that the Asian market has yielded some great trades by using VP. I solved a lot of the entry problems by looking carefully at intraday s/r by observing recent fractal points to see where entries might be foiled by entering too close to s/r by being just below or above a fractal. Usually I needed somewhere around 35 pip stops and up to 50 pip stops if my entries were within 25 pips of the h/l. When I was least certain about market conditions I'd filter trades looking only for the ideal ones by entering only 5 pips away and using 20 to 25 pips stops. This was all without paying any attention to PA and it has worked well.

FT
  • #116
  • Dec 24, 2005 8:57am Dec 24, 2005 8:57am
with the commentary, that is.

FT......thank you very much for taking the time to comment on the posts of those of us who are new to VP software. I value your insights and observations. And why shouldn't I? Afterall, it was your review that got me and others trading with this excellent tool.
And speaking of others, I would like to hear more from those who are using VP, either positive or negative. Some people have not posted in a while, what's happening? (I realize the holidays have both a direct and indirect impact on trading. Hopefully there will be more about this in 2006)
  • #117
  • Dec 24, 2005 11:08am Dec 24, 2005 11:08am
Could you comment on how you manage "Rules", do you have a checklist or a logic diagram or try to sort out whats going on in your head ....

I have trouble overlapping different rule scenarios in my head, so I need to limit myself to 1 set of very simple rules.., but it is very difficult, also has a lot to do with trading discipline..

Sry this isnt VP specific ....
  • #118
  • Dec 25, 2005 1:17pm Dec 25, 2005 1:17pm
I received a PM asking questions about my trading with VP and I have decided to answer them here with the thought that others might find my comments & observations useful. So here goes;
Following the lead of FT, I set entry points about 10 pips higher than the predicted low and/or lower than the predicted high. But right now this is just a WAG. I am in the process of looking closely at the 'track record' of VP predictions. I have printed out the history for 14 currency pairs and will now set out to determine how close the predictions actually are and just far off they can be. I believe this will give me an initial benchmark so as to finetune my entry points. For example; if I learn that GBP/JPY comes within 17 pips of the predicted price 65% of the time, I will consider using that number to set my entry as long as the data shows that the other 35% of the time I won't get blown out of a trade on a stop. A system of checks and balances will be needed. This will take some time but hopefully will give me the direction I need.
As for stops; I am familiar with the personality of some pairs because of trading them regularly, and so 'feel' comfortable using a 25 -35 pip stop from point of entry to protect my trade (a larger stop on some like GBP/USD or GBP/JPY because of volatility, sometimes as high as a 50 pip stop.) Here too, my history analysis will include looking at how far the price has gone beyond the predicted level with an eye on determing appropriate stops for each pair.
Limits; I wrote earlier about shooting for 60% of the predicted range and was asked about this. This figure was strictly arbitrary and again based on some experience with certain pairs. As you might have guessed, my history study will include determing how much of the range on average can we expect to capture using VP projections. (there have been times when I captured much MORE than 60% of the range because I monitored the trade)
So far, in a very limited amount of time, I have had very good success using the VP info as I have described in this thread. I have had some monster gains on a few trades, suffered a few modest losses and missed WAY too many trade entries by just a handful of pips (either because of being too close to the predicted H/L or being shut out by 'my' broker for a pip or two ). I think in some ways I have been a little too conservative in setting my entries. But my demo account is UP very nicely, thank you.
I've written this before, so excuse me for repeating myself. The BEST trades are WITH the trend, but I have some very NICE trades the other way, particularly during the Asian session WITH Asian pairs. Because I live in EST, I can watch these trades develop over a period of 4 or 5 hours and then before retiring around midnight make some decisions (close a trade, move a stop, let it go). At 7AM, I can make some more decisions about continuing with the program or not, based on current conditions and expected NEWS. I will add, that most all of my missed trades were during the early hours of the Euro session (3-7 AM EST). And a few good trades came about after the NY open.

OK......if you haven't fallen asleep reading this, then thanks for following along. The man who wrote to me expressed his appreciation and gratitude for all the info and help here at FF...........and I want to add my enthusiastic support to that statement!!! FF really is a great place......and getting better everyday!!!

I'll have more about this 'work in progess'. (I will be out of the country and away from the net for the first two weeks in January and will greatly miss being here at FF everyday. But I will be using some of that away time to study my 'history' reports and I hope to return with some good solid info to help with using VP. Wish me the best.)
  • #119
  • Dec 27, 2005 9:54am Dec 27, 2005 9:54am
Quoting traderob
I paid several thousand dollars for vantage point about 3 years ago. I can honestly say - out of all the sytems, books, courses and chatrooms that I have used over the years- that Vantage point is the biggest and most blatant con of them all. I did learn about my own greed and stupidity by buying it so I guess there is value in that.
Without having additonal background information and more details, I think it is impossible to see the relevance of the above statement. And because this is your first post, traderob, some may qusetion your motives. Of course the same people might question whether or not I am in some way affiliated with VP and therefore my positive comments are a result of that affiliation. I am NOT in any way associated with VP. I am simply a trader who started using their software and has had early success with the product when using it as outlined in this thread.
It is too bad that you spent a lot of money on something you now believe is a good con. But at least, by your own admition, you learned about two character flaws that MIGHT have been the real reasons why you were unable to successfully use this trading tool.
The one thing that does trouble me about VP is the way they change their price structure on what seems to almost be a weekly basis. My 15 day evaluation period is almost over. So when I called to register this AM and pick my 10 purchased markets, I was 'offered' a new 'promotion' by the technician who handled my registration. I can, "for this week only", purchase ALL 69 markets for an additional $1500. WOW, what a savings! I elected to take a pass on this offer. But I am tempted to call VP back in a few days and offer $1000 for this package. I wonder how they will respond?
  • #120
  • Dec 28, 2005 7:28pm Dec 28, 2005 7:28pm
BeachBum,

I am looking forward to your research as I too have just begun with VP and will be trying to do some research on my own as regards to predicted range, highs and lows, trading with trend along with using the strength indicator and price action analysis (thx j16).

As for Bob, I think it goes back to what Fiji said earlier about how this should be used as another analysis tool, not solely as a trading system, the trader using the analysis tools will determine if it is a successful or useful tool for trading or not. (sorry Fiji, I don't have the time to find the exact quote d/t 3 little boys running around the house). Or hopefully there will be an easy to use trading system based on VP's outputs...using all the indicators they furnish...probably a rifle shot approach based on all the data (thx agn j16)

On pricing, I too am a little disturbed by the sales tactics simply b/c I believe if you believe in your product and it has true value, it will essentially sell itself when in the hands of a knowledgeable trader. In my business we have an acronym we strongly adhere to:

Always have FCB in your PSI---Faith, Confidence and Belief in your Products, Services and Ideas.
(This is not to say VP doesn't have FCB in their PSI, I think I just don't like the so-called "time-sensitive" sales approaches, just seems a bit much for such a "great" product.)

To finish, I believe in just a couple of nights I definitely see the value in the VP software, based on demo trading. I look forward to hearing more of anyone elses findings on the research, good, bad or neutral. Keep your posts coming Beach, as I see real value in the research you will be providing.

Thx,
drjoe4x
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