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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #241
  • Edited 8:08pm Jan 18, 2010 7:44pm | Edited 8:08pm
Quoting tano
Then what is the trend now in EURUSD? And where is correct entry? And at what point the trend will change?
I think that we both know to not entry now on EUR-USD, there is no definited trend. Take EUR-GBP for sell, its not late. target - 0.8500
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  • #242
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:54pm Jan 18, 2010 7:54pm
I've never been a Fan of the "SYSTEM" which basically long term gives you a license to print money, but on the same note I've been working on this for YEARS I've tried 100's of variations on a theme which I know to have REAL Merit ( so don't get to excited yet ), BUT I do believe I've cracked it still working on getting my head fully around it and it seems to stack up LONG Term, maybe tweaks as you go to fine tune it but we'll see.

Demo trading results show the potential, trading 100% system without emotions while Live is as always tricky though



Ask me again in a few weeks time if I got it all working or back to the drawing board again



Smart money is on the Drawing board
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #243
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:04pm Jan 18, 2010 8:04pm
Stop Fooling Your System, There is No Self...

Then I suppose I am fooling my system.

It seems to think that it works.

I understand that that may create a minimum of 3 variables but...
Lucky me, i guess, I found them.

Me + Market + Comprehensive Analytical view.
Method or System?
I really don't care.
  • #244
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:08pm Jan 18, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting Bemac
Then I suppose I am fooling my system.

It seems to think that it works.

I understand that that may create a minimum of 3 variables but...
Lucky me, i guess, I found them.

Me + Market + Comprehensive Analytical view.
Method or System?
I really don't care.

Thats mostly due to YOU, so thats 20% System and 80% Method likely there, read you couldn't teach it to someone in 6months most likely, with them being GOOD themselves.

80% system and thankfully only 20% Method required for my new toy, reducing the ME part more and more cause I'm the bad part here
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #245
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:48pm Jan 18, 2010 8:48pm
I agree with Vlad...

You cannot "can the market".

Does this mean there are not successful and talented manual traders....no.

Does this mean that all EA's fail...Yes

Does this mean that somebody that exclusively follows a wiggley line (s) to base their decisions on an ever-changing market characteristic fails...well yes.


sorry But I have not failed in my own trading to agree with Vlad. But I have failed many times until I realized the truth in his post.

ES
  • #246
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:48pm Jan 18, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting tinojazz
I think that we both know to not entry now on EUR-USD, there is no definited trend. Take EUR-GBP for sell, its not late. target - 0.8500
OK, let's try trend following. Selling EurGBP @ 0.8773 for 0.85. Although bit skeptical. according to my analysis on 4hr charts it's about to bottom out.
  • #247
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:35am Jan 19, 2010 4:35am
Quoting tano
OK, let's try trend following. Selling EurGBP @ 0.8773 for 0.85. Although bit skeptical. according to my analysis on 4hr charts it's about to bottom out.
I say that the last target is 0.8500, but now if you folow me you have 45 pips, so you can improve with break even or trailing stop. you can win a lot or you can loose nothing. And what is definition for trend in your opinion? Or you are just one of them scalpers?
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  • #248
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:45am Jan 19, 2010 11:45am
Quoting tinojazz
I say that the last target is 0.8500, but now if you folow me you have 45 pips, so you can improve with break even or trailing stop. you can win a lot or you can loose nothing. And what is definition for trend in your opinion? Or you are just one of them scalpers?
yes i have 55 pips, locking in. i tried trend trending many times, i made a lot of money during quiet, trending periods just to see it destroyed during quick and violent correction like last fall from 1.51 in euro.
  • #249
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:23pm Jan 19, 2010 12:23pm
that's not entirely accurate about there being no system. most of it is about money management i think. If you have that then you can be 30% accurate and still win. You have to also realize that the market dynamic is always changing. So most systems will have a hard time eventually usually in sideways markets.

Find currency pairs that trend often and avoid ranging pair like the EUR/CHF. you will get whipsawed. Also higher time frames are generally more accurate then lower ones. use 30m, 1hr, 4hr to get rid of the noise.
  • #250
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:34pm Jan 19, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.

There is a system & its indicators are !!!

1) Patience !
2) Discipline !
3) Hard Practice !
4) You Have to know what you are doing !
5) Your complete control on your emotions & fear of losing money !

Result ==== Pip's , Pip's , Pip's

GoodLuck & Happy Trading!

PipHacker!!!
  • #251
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:18pm Jan 19, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting fxxx
Parisienne said he had no losses; i know people do that - sometimes 4 fun or 4 the hell of it - but for whole year...

forex is a game of edges, therefore the idea is to be profitable overall ( including the broker's machinations to steal client money, which disturbs me, but that's another discussion), not to not have a single loss over a period of time.

if i trade anything with a small size amount, only one trade and dont put any stop loss on that ( which i will not do it, but for the sake of discussion) would be very hard to have a loss you see....but the first loss will be the end of my roll LOL
The risk is what gives value to an investment.
  • #252
  • Jan 19, 2010 6:22pm Jan 19, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting Vlad
Sorry.
That you are.
  • #253
  • Jan 19, 2010 6:28pm Jan 19, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting 3cent
forex is a game of edges, therefore the idea is to be profitable overall ( including the broker's machinations to steal client money, which disturbs me, but that's another discussion), not to not have a single loss over a period of time.

if i trade anything with a small size amount, only one trade and dont put any stop loss on that ( which i will not do it, but for the sake of discussion) would be very hard to have a loss you see....but the first loss will be the end of my roll LOL
If you run on a multiple positions, not really hedging but as the market calls it and leave your losers on the table for ever +50 TP say ?? As long as your trading at a small enough amount then the profits should out strip the LONG Term losers which might take from 6weeks to 6years to get to the TP.

It's a slow account growth game though and that long at GU 2.10000 area may never get closed
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #254
  • Jan 19, 2010 8:56pm Jan 19, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting Vlad
So, its been 15 months or so, did anybody became a trillionire while I was gone?
not all trader want to compete with bill gate,, my motto is do the right trade,, lose the the right way ..money will follow.. this kind your mentaly is still primy in trading... system trading is not the only way of trading.. i think you need to do some more homework
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #255
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:24pm Jan 19, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting sphinx
...and central banks aren't making money...
They are the money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #256
  • Jan 20, 2010 11:11am Jan 20, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Vlad
So, its been 15 months or so, did anybody became a trillionire while I was gone?

No one has ever, ever claimed that they could return 5% on a compounding account balance ad infinitum. But you obviously don't care what people can actually do, and instead think that a simple math problem dispels the notion a trader can be profitable through skill.

You can't earn 5% ad infinitum on a compounding account because of market mechanics, once your account is large enough returning a consistent 5% is going to become extremely difficult.

You are fooling yourself if you don't think some traders could return 5% on a fixed account balance though. I.e., trader has $100000 account and earns 5% through the month of January, now his balance is $105000. He withdraws the $5000, and proceeds to earn 5% again in February. Balance is $105000 again and he withdraws the extra $5000. By year end he has earned $60000. He returned 5% per month. 10 years later, he has only earned $600000. All the while returning 5% of his balance per month.

Of course it's clear you have probably lost a lot of money and have no natural or teachable ability to trade (evidenced by you constantly losing), so I guess this doesn't really help you at all. Sorry.
  • #257
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:28pm Jan 20, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting smittens4212
No one has ever, ever claimed that they could return 5% on a compounding account balance ad infinitum. But you obviously don't care what people can actually do, and instead think that a simple math problem dispels the notion a trader can be profitable through skill.

You can't earn 5% ad infinitum on a compounding account because of market mechanics, once your account is large enough returning a consistent 5% is going to become extremely difficult.

You are fooling yourself if you don't think some traders could return 5% on a fixed account balance...

I have a similar plan, but with a 10K GBP account, plan to make 30-50% per month so 3K-5K GBP and withdraw the account back to 10K each month, I can't see the need for more with the current Margin requirements I guess, only need £500+ to trade at $10 per pip after all, don't really need more.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #258
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:02pm Feb 23, 2010 5:02pm
Pick the direction of the train, get on and get off when the direction changes. Simple.
  • #259
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:10pm Feb 23, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting Kurti
Pick the direction of the train, get on and get off when the direction changes. Simple.

PERFECT, it really is that simple.


Spotting the direction of the train is like trying to work out the direction of a real train when your blind and death though
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #260
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:22pm Feb 23, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting Turveyd
PERFECT, it really is that simple.


Spotting the direction of the train is like trying to work out the direction of a real train when your blind and death though
He, He, yeah but thank god the train sometimes really goes where it says it's going and starts and stops nice and slow so you can feel it
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