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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #216,281
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:01am Feb 23, 2010 11:01am
Quoting Beljevina
All the yen crosses are unanimously heading in the same direction; lots of yen strength out there. The H4 looks ominously ready to further collapse and sail past our low of 138.23. And the current DPP looks to be 250 pips uphill - will be interesting to see what Asia does with this thing next. If Wall Street catches a cold as we move to it's close, this could get ugly.
always possible, further down looks very likely. but then, isnt that when the smart money takes it back up to screw everyone?
  • #216,282
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:03am Feb 23, 2010 11:03am
That's the "Forex Golden Rule" right there, imo. Smart man.
Quoting rgitt05
I will stick to a simple rule I use...Trade only in the 4hr,Daily bias direction until a major S/R is hit...


Weekly S3 137.55 possible reversal..

Kaboom

  • #216,283
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:05am Feb 23, 2010 11:05am
okay. You know some people always have to try and ice skate uphill. Not me.
Quoting Scrat
for all scalpers out there, here is a nice quote from a very wise trader - it is exactly what i am trying to say:

"...BEFORE you can enter a trade in the opposite direction, PRICE has to STOP going in its original direction. This is BEFORE PRICE moves in the opposite direction. It has to STOP going in its original direction....
  • #216,284
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:16am Feb 23, 2010 11:16am
no. first they have to convince EVERYBODY and their mother that price is really going down, i mean down... but you are still on the sides, watching for a long... so you are not convinced that it may go down.
well, when you will see another dip and will enter a short, that's when they'll turn the trend, not now ... i've been there hundreds of times but hopefully learned my lesson long time ago.

Quoting ewokuk
always possible, further down looks very likely. but then, isnt that when the smart money takes it back up to screw everyone?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,285
  • Edited 11:48am Feb 23, 2010 11:31am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting Scrat
no. first they have to convince EVERYBODY and their mother that price is really going down, i mean down... but you are still on the sides, watching for a long... so you are not convinced that it may go down.
well, when you will see another dip and will enter a short, that's when they'll turn the trend, not now ... i've been there hundreds of times but hopefully learned my lesson long time ago.
yes i noticed. i still have a nasty habit of going short at the bottom and long at the top, often right to the very pip! even right at the high or low of the day, TO THE PIP! amazes me every time.

the problem then to correct this i start looking for longs instead after a big down move like today, because i sure as hell am not going to short near the bottom of a 300 pip move straight down. so ironically by trying not to short at the bottom, i end up going long in the middle of a downtrend instead and STILL get screwed. and if i wait until its omving in one direction then jump on it in that direction, itll be right as it reverses. so basically i get screwed whatever i do lol
  • #216,286
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:46am Feb 23, 2010 11:46am
you need to have PATIENCE. trade only in the direction of the main trend. for instance, main trend on g-j is DOWN, then you will look to go short on all rallies.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO GO LONG on g-j now. if you see a rally, get out and take a walk or have a drink or have sex or whatever. then when you see that rally about to end, short it again.
and get your timeframe correlation straight, once and for all - this is the most important thing.

Quoting ewokuk
yes i noticed....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,287
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:51am Feb 23, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Scrat
you need to have PATIENCE. trade only in the direction of the main trend. for instance, main trend on g-j is DOWN, then you will look to go short on all rallies.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO GO LONG on g-j now. if you see a rally, get out and take a walk or have a drink or have sex or whatever. then when you see that rally about to end, short it again.
and get your timeframe correlation straight, once and for all - this is the most important thing.
yes it seems patience is the most important thing aside from money management. problem is if i see a rally i start thinking, maybe this rally isnt a rally maybe its the start of a new uptrend and then i get scared to short it

timeframe correlation? u mean i have to wait for daily, 4h, 1h and 15min to be pointing down? ill be waitin forever
  • #216,288
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:53am Feb 23, 2010 11:53am
Well the heavy bearish divergence I was banging on about last week has pretty much played out now. Closed all AY shorts after much frowning and head scratching. lol

Not saying I don't see more downside, but we may consolidate higher than we think over the next few sessions.

Not shorting here unless I see convincing breaks of support supported by volume.
  • #216,289
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:56am Feb 23, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Scrat
you need to have PATIENCE. trade only in the direction of the main trend. for instance, main trend on g-j is DOWN, then you will look to go short on all rallies.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO GO LONG on g-j now. if you see a rally, get out and take a walk or have a drink or have sex or whatever. then when you see that rally about to end, short it again.
and get your timeframe correlation straight, once and for all - this is the most important thing.
Scrat, you're absolutely right ... I actually try to catch the anti-trend moves but more important is the main trend - but that main trend requires patience, and biting of the lip often - that's been the toughest for me to learn. On bottom and top picking, I can score about a 70% success ratio - if I anti-trend scalp, I use much smaller lots, as I've been burned too much on that non-successful 30%. Capital preservation is paramount for me - that's why I've persevered to bottom & top pick.
  • #216,290
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:59am Feb 23, 2010 11:59am
read what i wrote above about price. a trend NEVER CHANGES suddenly!!! there must be a distribution/accumulation period! learn how they look, and you will save yourself a lot of trouble.

by timeframe correlation i meant to learn how to identify the trend on each timeframe + understand where is the "no return" place on each timeframe + understand the importance, strength and place of each timeframe within the higher ones.

Quoting ewokuk
yes it seems patience is the most important thing aside from money management. problem is if i see a rally i start thinking, maybe this rally isnt a rally maybe its the start of a new uptrend and then i get scared to short it

timeframe correlation? u mean i have to wait for daily, 4h, 1h and 15min to be pointing down? ill be waitin forever
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,291
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:05pm Feb 23, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting ewokuk
yes i noticed. i still have a nasty habit of going short at the bottom and long at the top, often right to the very pip! even right at the high or low of the day, TO THE PIP! amazes me every time.
Wouldn't it help to not directly buy or sell, but to set limit orders? Like as this moment I have a small short open and sell orders @ 140, 140.50 and 141.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #216,292
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:07pm Feb 23, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting ewokuk
problem is if i see a rally i start thinking, maybe this rally isnt a rally maybe its the start of a new uptrend and then i get scared to short it
Early London session was a perfect example of a fake out quickie rally (white area), then needing the guts to short at the (blue) trend line (it had been rigidly obeying it), and then taking patience pills, sleeping, etc. That was friggin 280 pips ago & 10 hours time. For anyone who caught that complete move, the profit potential on it alone was almost obscene. Although I was watching it like a hawk, I did not short (cold feet, but entered to catch about half the move), but it is repetitive lessons like that, that keep me trading GY, and more importantly learning from it's habitual and rather predictable nature.
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  • #216,293
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:08pm Feb 23, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting Scrat
read what i wrote above about price. a trend NEVER CHANGES suddenly!!! there must be a distribution/accumulation period! learn how they look, and you will save yourself a lot of trouble.
in that case it should be pretty safe to short it from here

but ill wait for my 140 first. nothing more irritating that saying you want it to go to 140, jumping the ugn and entering at 139.30 and then sitting there watching it go to 140
  • #216,294
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:11pm Feb 23, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Wouldn't it help to not directly buy or sell, but to set limit orders? Like as this moment I have a small short open and sell orders @ 140, 140.50 and 141.

Shamu
in theory yes. but one thing i dont like doing is having price moving UP to trigger a sell order (or down to trigger a buy order), purely because at the point it gets triggered the price is moving the wrong way!

if i set orders i like to set them so price is going the same direction as the order. i figure that gives me the best chance of getting something instead of being instantly down on the trade. the problem is to set those orders i need the price to go where i want it first and only then can i set the order below it for a short, which kinda defeats the point of it i guess as ive already waited for it to go where i want it.
  • #216,295
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:11pm Feb 23, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting ewokuk
yes i noticed. i still have a nasty habit of going short at the bottom and long at the top, often right to the very pip! even right at the high or low of the day, TO THE PIP! amazes me every time.

the problem then to correct this i start looking for longs instead after a big down move like today, because i sure as hell am not going to short near the bottom of a 300 pip move straight down. so ironically by trying not to short at the bottom, i end up going long in the middle of a downtrend instead and STILL get screwed. and if i wait until its omving...

chuck every ind. away..learn where is all the S/R levels ,entries based on that and you are whyyy ahead,and you will be a profitable trader ..trust me ... that was my tunring point in my trading career.. it was a struggle,a real strugggle, before.

i build my acc from a cetain amount,and build my accwhere i now open now positions of 500k upto 1.2 mill with a strict MM.. and that is ONLY PLAIN P/A and S/R..no. MA,,no ind.. no fibs,,absoluut nothing...

i post many charts here ,where i say its untested S/R levels.. look how it react on that levels..

for instance ,, the eur/usd @ 1.3450
gbp/usd @ 1.5350 and i post this long time ago ..

for the future look for this reaction on this pairs..

gbp/chf @ 1.6450 long
eur/jpy 119.63 long
cad/jpy 83.65 (scalping long)
USD/jpy 87.00
thats all higher time frames,but i can go lower and point out ..

you can place all that in your order box for a pending order and wait for it to trigger..

i can go on,and point 25 entries , all in my order window,,but i point only now 5 of them...

S/R on lower TM had much lower limits.. but we all know that,,and on daily it has some of them over 200 limits..and monthly over 2000...
most of the time my S/R on monhtly's go to the pip on my enttrie and drop or shoot up over 2000 pips to my limit,,yes it take time,but whe reach it..

S/R is poision when you know excactly where it is,and they never change,they stay at the same level all the time..
  • #216,296
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:12pm Feb 23, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting quecee5
U don't wanna know what I see on the monthly I won't speak of it hear. . . But here is a daily chart that suggest we are headed lower. . .

There are some major support that's need at least a solid daily close below them before we can say we are in a full continuation south. . . if verified I see 112 but we won't talk about that right now until after this consolidation. . .

Also, you can clearly see only a solid daily close above 143-143.50 area would suggest more upside and the min target is 146.50 area...
Congrats to shorts if you were short - I think my targets lower still stands. . .
  • #216,297
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:16pm Feb 23, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Beljevina
Early London session was a perfect example of a fake out quickie rally (white area), then needing the guts to short at the (blue) trend line (it had been rigidly obeying it), and then taking patience pills, sleeping, etc. That was friggin 280 pips ago & 10 hours time. For anyone who caught that complete move, the profit potential on it alone was almost obscene. Although I was watching it like a hawk, I did not short (cold feet, but entered to catch about half the move), but it is repetitive lessons like that, that keep me trading GY, and more importantly...
i actually did catch that move but on GU. i saw the nice fat 1h up bar this morning exactly where i said YESTERDAY that i wanted to short from (1.5550). i figured it looked fake up move, BoE news was never going to be good, and i had already targeted that area for a sell. so i took it at 1.5555.

unfortunately i dont like being a load of pips up and then see it come right back and end up with nothing. so i ended up jumping out at 100 pips on a small up spike, and as usual i jumped out right at the very top of the little spike, so if i had put the stop a couple of pips higher id have still been in. then i watched it drop another 70 pips!
  • #216,298
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:17pm Feb 23, 2010 12:17pm
from here? maybe, maybe not. it is close to the end of the trading day, and volume is low. let's see what asia wants to do and we'll take it from there.

but i'm telling you: it's not 140 anymore, it's 139.35. if we go above139.35, then i think we may go even higher than 140, i don't know maybe 141? i don't care about the rallies, all i care is to reload shorts until descending trend line/channel is broken. then i count my profits .

Quoting ewokuk
in that case it should be pretty safe to short it from here

but ill wait for my 140 first. nothing more irritating that saying you want it to go to 140, jumping the ugn and entering at 139.30 and then sitting there watching it go to 140
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #216,299
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:22pm Feb 23, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting zweig
chuck every ind. away..learn where is all the S/R levels ,entries based on that and you are whyyy ahead,and you will be a profitable trader ..trust me ... that was my tunring point in my trading career.. it was a struggle,a real strugggle, before.

i build my acc from a cetain amount,and build my accwhere i now open now positions of 500k upto 1.2 mill with a strict MM.. and that is ONLY PLAIN P/A and S/R..no. MA,,no ind.. no fibs,,absoluut nothing...
S/R yes. but no fibs? no pivots? fibs and pivots ARE S/R levels! The GU trade i called earlier for a short off 1.5475 I called because thats the daily pivot (and happens to be the daily open too).

GJ, after the initial drop earlier, price got back up to 140.27. why? 140.27 happens to be the weekly S1, to the pip!

the only indicator i have is a macd to spot divergence, which actually doesnt work very well anyway so i may ditch it just to avoid the distraction.
  • #216,300
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:30pm Feb 23, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting ewokuk
S/R yes. but no fibs? no pivots? fibs and pivots ARE S/R levels! The GU trade i called earlier for a short off 1.5475 I called because thats the daily pivot (and happens to be the daily open too).

GJ, after the initial drop earlier, price got back up to 140.27. why? 140.27 happens to be the weekly S1, to the pip!

the only indicator i have is a macd to spot divergence, which actually doesnt work very well anyway so i may ditch it just to avoid the distraction.

you can get the right S/R levels right to the pip with only the PA,, fibs are only a tool to point then out.. but you dont need them..
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