USDCAD trend reversal?

Well it is a start. Looking for a close above the 105.50 level that will hold the overnight trade. Then we may be on our way to a functioning capitalist economy without Fed intervention every time someone sneezes.

If one believes in the move add to position on pullbacks.

hey foto, sound good. i look for retracement to buy

Hi Clouds,
The buying pressure in USD/CAD is strong. As the Euro sells down it takes everything else with it.
We know that come 5 pm est the major banks close up and go home. Still might be selling pressure from the west coast like Wells Fargo and B.O.A.
Have no idea what to expect out of Asia overnight.
I am sitting right on through with what I've got on for the longer pull. Treating last night action as a significant reversal

Think the upside on this pair is 1.1500 but with major strikes hitting Greece very soon who can tell the future.

I am suprised that Gold hasn't moved more on the day. So there are many who remain on the other side of the trade. This would suggest that there will be some countering moves to come.

Good luck with however you play this.

i think there's no stopping usd/cad, no upside limit for me i not be surprised see 1.50 in 1-year! cause it goes FAST up, and slow down
hey, my gold chart is bearish

Everyone may be waiting to see what comes out of Bernanke tomorrow. If get a retrace to 104.80 level I may add. The 50% Fibo of the last near term move, around 1.0574 held as near term resistance.

Clouds your target price is ambitious, but a severe credit contraction might do it. I am not that bearish, just believe the piper has yet to be paid in full for all the debt sins of the past.
One mess at a time

No retrace appearing. this might have legs.

It also has a nice little bullish consolidation kinda what some people call a bull pendant or bull flag,, I just call it a bull consolidation pattern,, Just my two cents if I'm wrong my draw down will let me know

SNB has seemingly intervened more frequently than usual as of late. Anyone have thoughts on why?

Big Ben B has yet to speak (coupled with disappointing consumer confidence info this a.m.) & USD "looking good" today.

Throw in BoJ chief & J Finance Minister in a Sumo wrestling match.


I sense a tad of uncertainty from the experts & speculators.

FOTO, I agree that long term US/CAD shall rise.

I am still out of the "Loonie" trade temporarily.

Unable to focus totally, so I shall remain out of US & Y pairs this week ( look @ the Beaver today!).

Might relax with G/CAD or G/AUD.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1478413/

Here's something I read on it:

Judging by the overnight round of SNB intervention to support EUR/CHF when it had the audacity to trade all the way down to 1.4617 versus the previous eleven days" lows in the 1.4630-50 vicinity, "excessive", the word SNB"s Jordan used to describe what amount of franc strength was needed to force the CB"s hand, now means "any". But as has happened numerous times since they first began intervening last March, prices did not rise very high and quickly fell back toward where they were before the SNB bids hit. EUR/CHF ran into resistance again by the 21-day MA line and ahead of the 1.4704 highs of the past eleven sessions. Subsequently, support has been found close to the lower 10-day Bolli band at 1.4630. With risk going out of the markets in droves today, the natural flows are offers in this cross, so the SNB will have to maintain a close presence if they wish to keep prices in their recent stultifying ranges.



The Swiss government, according to a DJ report earlier today, is set for a special cabinet session tomorrow to discuss what to do for the economy"s financial sector, which remains challenged by the financial crisis, recession and assaults on Swiss tax secrecy.

Good morning,
Consider this line of thought. First we are entering a protracted period of debt liquidation. Whether it arrives from default or paydown the end result is there is less credit to fuel growth. Money as we normaly think about it is a number on a piece of paper. However money in the economy is actualy the aggregate amount of credit in play at any given time.
When you have credit expansion in effect you have money increasing and the reverse also holds that as credit restricts you have money decreasing.
The USD acts as in real terms the worlds currency because of its reserve status. When the world expands credit the amount of USD available increases. More money chasing fewer goods and the dollar declines in value. When credit contracts you have more goods and fewer dollars so the price of the dollar goes up.
An exporter will sell more goods with a weaker currency. So that exporter has incentive to maintain a weaker currency, so they intervene in their own self interest.
The USD with so many pegs to it by exporters becomes subject to the actions of those exporters. So the exporters thwart the role of the USD as a reserve currency. This then pushes that role onto other currencies.
The CHF is one that currently recieves a double whammy. First flight capital out of Europe ( a traditional safe haven) and secondly the weakening of the USD via intervention. Therefore the CHF being an exporter is hurt by the actions of other interventionists.

The SNB in the interests of the Swiss people is forced to intervene to minimize the actions of countries such as China. At some point China will realize that trying to stop the market is futile, but it does not understand that yet.

Of course this is all theoretical but it is funny how the price of gold is falling but commodity currencies are not responding to that. May it be due to intervention against the USD?

Got in at 1.0530

Clouds, nice going
now we wait.
The general strike in Greece is the beginning of tensions in Europe. How much the market has priced in dovishness out of Bernanke today will be the driving force in U.S. markets.

If a person wanted to trade the intervention theory, the assumption is that interveners would attempt to lock in the Euro/USD rate. That in turn would redirect European selling pressure against the GBP. So far this morning that seems to be what is happening.
Thus shorting GBP/CAD and GBP/USD would be the pairs to watch.

If the market starts to focus on deflation as a result of Bernanke then it would be unwise to short the GBP/CAD I think this last case is highly unlikely, but we have had a rally in this pair yesterday and it might continue today.
A selloff in AUD/USD would confirm a deflationary bias as this pair has been the strong one.

Scarecru, chicken entrails might well be better

I'm very bearish on CAD and AUD, I'd buy GBP, EUR & USD with them. The charts look a bit extreme longer-term time frames. Some charts look better than others.

Gold & Oil is due for a big drop, and Bernanke is just the one to do it!

OIL H&S

Since price action in the Euro looks as if intervention is occuring. One may choose to sit out the day and let the USD get beat up and get back in at a better level.
There is nothing in the Bernanke testimony to trigger this kind of price action. When situations like this occur intervention is the only logical reasoning that makes sense.

ps: looks as if the Cad central bank stopped the market selloff and locked up price for a bit.
High risk situation but there was opportunity in buying long USD/CHF and the Loonie.
It is all part of the game, so this is an example of the unexpected and why a person should not overtrade.

Was there a spike in the USD/CAD to 2.35758? I see the high in my FXCM is 2.35758, and got a margin call!!!! Is this real or I am nuts!!! I opened a case with FXCM!! Any one experienced the same?

Not me, but it's all over the forum.

Give them a chance to work it out. It was out of their control when this kind of thing happens. If you trade frequently they will most likely settle it amiable.
The good news is that the Bk.of Canada is willing to stabilize the market which makes the bull case stronger.