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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #921
  • Feb 21, 2010 4:09pm Feb 21, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting DanUK
How do you set it to the fibonacci formula?
Downloads moved to url: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=17863

You need read the notes in compile, please. This will avoid you having to ask a lot of questions.
  • #922
  • Feb 22, 2010 10:49am Feb 22, 2010 10:49am
Hi Dan,

Thank you for sharing your experience and knowledge with us.

I have a question regarding the Fib 50%.

From your experience, does the entry point have to be after the price bounce from a 50% line?

What if the price bounce back after the 50% (i.e. 61.8%, 100%) or before the 50% (i.e. 23.6%)? Would you still enter the trade?

The reason I asked this is because I noticed sometime the price would bounce before or after the 50% line.

Thank you in advance for your reply

bun888
  • #923
  • Feb 22, 2010 11:27am Feb 22, 2010 11:27am
Dan
I entered a EU short on the break of a TL, a round number near the 50% of the last swing and lastly, a reversal pattern called the hanging man. (Well, the entry was supposed to be 1.36 but thanks to my ISP , I entered at 1.3589). Position: Sell -1.3589, TP- 0, SL -1.37 and TS - 100

Anyone with me ?


http://content.screencast.com/users/...02-22_2254.png
  • #924
  • Feb 22, 2010 2:52pm Feb 22, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting bun888
Hi Dan,

Thank you for sharing your experience and knowledge with us.

I have a question regarding the Fib 50%.

From your experience, does the entry point have to be after the price bounce from a 50% line?

What if the price bounce back after the 50% (i.e. 61.8%, 100%) or before the 50% (i.e. 23.6%)? Would you still enter the trade?

The reason I asked this is because I noticed sometime the price would bounce before or after the 50% line.

Thank you in advance for your reply

bun888
Hi bun888,

I don't tend to pay attention to any other fib level. I only use the 50% retracement because it is the level that has proven (statistically over the course of time) to be the most likely turning point for a trend retracement.

The only exception to this is if there is a trendline or some serious support or resistance level that stands in the way of the 50%. Other than that I generally use the 50% retracement as my "minimum" distance for an entry in a retracement.

Hope that makes sense!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #925
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:00pm Feb 22, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Dan
I entered a EU short on the break of a TL, a round number near the 50% of the last swing and lastly, a reversal pattern called the hanging man. (Well, the entry was supposed to be 1.36 but thanks to my ISP , I entered at 1.3589). Position: Sell -1.3589, TP- 0, SL -1.37 and TS - 100

Anyone with me ?

Hi Vicky_ag,

Yes this looks like a good entry to me. I am in an EU short from 1.3600, it is currently sitting just over breakeven and I am waiting for something to move... hopefully down! Lol!

I also have a long on A/U from 0.8900 which I'm not sure if I mentioned before or not.

Regards,


Dan
  • #926
  • Edited 3:34pm Feb 22, 2010 3:05pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Dan
I entered a EU short on the break of a TL, a round number near the 50% of the last swing and lastly, a reversal pattern called the hanging man. (Well, the entry was supposed to be 1.36 but thanks to my ISP , I entered at 1.3589). Position: Sell -1.3589, TP- 0, SL -1.37 and TS - 100

Anyone with me ?


http://content.screencast.com/users/...02-22_2254.png
G'day Vicky

I am brand new to trading 'sensible' time frames, and thus am still on demo. However, my assessment has been bearish too.

Having said that, I am a bit of a babe in the woods at the moment, still trying to get my mind around it all.

I set a sell order at 1.35733, which was triggered over night when I was sleeping, seemingly to the pip. Since then, we have had the retrace, but in the last hour there has been a bounce off the 50% Fib on the H1/H4, and we are back down below 1.36 again, giving the entry the hint of a hope...

Having said this, I was also short on Friday, which was stopped out during the US session... Looking forward to the resurrecting that soldier when the time comes...

Personally, the market definitely looks bearish to me, and it was comforting to have this proved after the rally based on Friday's good news from the US was seemingly short lived. However, I have to wonder, with the 'blip' from last week breaking the inside trend line, how that bodes for the overall health of the trend?

Is that the first sign that the Southbound Express is not travelling to all stations? Is this slide short lived?

Regardless, both the UK and US sessions were messy last night, with no shorter term 70 - 100 pips trends in either session... consolidating for a run perhaps?

Thanks to Dan for chucking up his chart showing the placement of his TL's... Good to know I can at least put my lines in the right place... hehehe...

PPP

PS - Man! One word that I have heard repeatedly throughout the Jacko related threads has been PATIENCE... The great attraction for me to the M5 has been the speed... Of course, it was the speed that the market took my cash on most occasions... One thing I will have to come to terms with in trading like this is the time frame that it takes to be profitable.

"Oh impatience! Youth is thy name!"

Like the big fella said: It is better to get rich slowly...than to go broke spectacularly fast.
How do you make a small fortune in Forex? Start with a large one!
  • #927
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:12am Feb 23, 2010 1:12am
Hi All,

Hi Dan,

just a question regarding AU. What made you go long there? This is a serious query. I was short on it at 8985r- came out at BE. But the real deal to me- is that looking at the daily and EU it seems to me as if we were looking at a beginning of a down move here. That is why I was looking to go short.
Also on Kiwi - BE again.

No we are at area of questio as the upward momentom seems to be slow now and EU may make its anticipated bigger correction.

By all means trading wht is right thee is the way IMO.

I did wrong this month and lost a signifficant amount of my profit from the begining of the month. Although still in profit, I decided to demo trade for one more month to prove to me that I can handle this better. I figured that this market will be here long after my death so I do not rush.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Kind Regards zol
  • #928
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:45am Feb 23, 2010 1:45am
Quoting vicky_ag
Dan
I entered a EU short on the break of a TL, a round number near the 50% of the last swing and lastly, a reversal pattern called the hanging man. (Well, the entry was supposed to be 1.36 but thanks to my ISP , I entered at 1.3589). Position: Sell -1.3589, TP- 0, SL -1.37 and TS - 100

Anyone with me ?


http://content.screencast.com/users/...02-22_2254.png

Don't draw your TL to fit your current price. If you are drawing a TL connecting the highs then it should touch all the highs on the way down - redraw your TL and you'll see that price should meet it near 1.3700.

I wouldnt use 50% fibs on small swings that we have seen on the 4H. A TL bounce near 1.4700 is the nearest short opportunity IMO - if we got PA too that would be great. But be careful and ready to kill the trade if we get a breakout above th 4H TL.

The only decent swing that I would be applying a fib too is the daily swing for which the 50% is 1.4000.

Taking short trades
  • #929
  • Feb 23, 2010 6:07am Feb 23, 2010 6:07am
Quoting lovejoy80
Don't draw your TL to fit your current price. If you are drawing a TL connecting the highs then it should touch all the highs on the way down - redraw your TL and you'll see that price should meet it near 1.3700.

I wouldnt use 50% fibs on small swings that we have seen on the 4H. A TL bounce...
Lovejoy80

My chart is actually filled with TLs all with a minimum of two touches.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=22

And actually, I am betting more on this channel :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=20

I am not sure how you draw TL connecting all highs. Maybe you can post an example of your chart for us to learn.

Also, what exactly is a small swing? I mean how you define "how small is small" Hypothetical question : a 100 pip swing in say a week is small? Or a 100 pip in a day is small?

Cause IMO 3-4 day swing is also a swing cause there is a time value to the fx movements too.

Maybe you can illustrate an example for the small vs big swings too.
  • #930
  • Feb 23, 2010 6:52am Feb 23, 2010 6:52am
Quoting vicky_ag
Lovejoy80

My chart is actually filled with TLs all with a minimum of two touches.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=22

And actually, I am betting more on this channel :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=20

I am not sure how you draw TL connecting all highs. Maybe you can post an example of your chart for us to learn.

Also, what exactly is a small swing? I mean how you define "how small is small" Hypothetical question : a 100 pip swing in say a week is small?...
I'll explain in more detail with charts what I mean this evening when I get more time. As you can see price bounced of the 4H TL connecting the recent highs @ 1.3680.

In terms of swings...it's subjective, but the recent 'swings' on the 4H are not really swings they are just very small pullbacks - probably caused due to some profit taking rather than what you would term a correction. The smaller the swing the less reliable the 50% fib connecting them.

Again, when I get some time this evening I will provide a longer post with charts explaining what I mean, my approach and what I'm currently looking at.
  • #931
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:33am Feb 23, 2010 11:33am
fellow trendies,

i hope you are rolling in pips on the euro, aussie shorts and usdcad long. well the usdcad wasnt a trend trade strictly.

my mistake in letting the aussie short close at 8915. never mind, the euro is running and i hope it sinks all the way into oblivion
  • #932
  • Feb 23, 2010 12:35pm Feb 23, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting coolshades
fellow trendies,

i hope you are rolling in pips on the euro, aussie shorts and usdcad long. well the usdcad wasnt a trend trade strictly.

my mistake in letting the aussie short close at 8915. never mind, the euro is running and i hope it sinks all the way into oblivion
Coolshades, Aussie trades are running beyond me. First there was a long which were contrary to the daily trend. That cud be explained by the fact that we need to look at the trend in our trading TF which meant looking at the lower TF, trend did look long.

Now this short. I hope it was in the line with the trend of the daily and a 50% retrace. Or am i wrong?
  • #933
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:03pm Feb 23, 2010 1:03pm
totally depends on how you look at charts and willingness to take a risk.

for me, the 9000 ish level was a very strong resistance level. hence i exited my long from 8900 of last week at that level. when price stalled a bit at that level, i entered a short. i exited (maybe a bit early) at 8915. however, an 8900 might be worth a long, but trade at your own risk.

see my interpretation below. see dotted lines and where they intersect with what. the first is daily chart, the second h4.



Quoting vicky_ag
Coolshades, Aussie trades are running beyond me. First there was a long which were contrary to the daily trend. That cud be explained by the fact that we need to look at the trend in our trading TF which meant looking at the lower TF, trend did look long.

Now this short. I hope it was in the line with the trend of the daily and a 50% retrace. Or am i wrong?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_daily_feb2010.png Size: 15 KB
Attached Image
  • #934
  • Feb 23, 2010 2:25pm Feb 23, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting coolshades
fellow trendies,

i hope you are rolling in pips on the euro, aussie shorts and usdcad long. well the usdcad wasnt a trend trade strictly.

my mistake in letting the aussie short close at 8915. never mind, the euro is running and i hope it sinks all the way into oblivion
Yes. I woke up to a bed full of pips this morning...

Two dead solders came back to life over night, while I was sleeping! Currently in profit! Yay!

At this stage, I am just trying to play the base Jacko method, so I am only in the Euro...

First profit I have made in months, and it was, as Jacko said, so easy...

I didn't have to do a thing!

Ahhhh...

It feels good!

PPP
How do you make a small fortune in Forex? Start with a large one!
  • #935
  • Feb 23, 2010 9:22pm Feb 23, 2010 9:22pm
On EU 1.35 is proving a gud resistance so moved my stop to BE. We might see a bounce back today.
  • #936
  • Edited 10:15am Feb 24, 2010 9:54am | Edited 10:15am
Stopped at BE. Looking to re-enter at 1.36. Lets see.

Edit: Is position scaling followed using this method?

I did take half my position when the price hovered around 1.35, so that the trade was not a total loss.
  • #937
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:35am Feb 24, 2010 10:35am
Quoting vicky_ag
Stopped at BE. Looking to re-enter at 1.36. Lets see.

Edit: Is position scaling followed using this method?

I did take half my position when the price hovered around 1.35, so that the trade was not a total loss.
Getting a trade to breakeven is never a loss!

As per our recent discussions... we could be expecting a bigger retracement so watch price carefully as it gets to our "areas of interest" - if price doesn't get rejected then watch above for a bigger correction.

Regards,

Dan
  • #938
  • Feb 24, 2010 12:42pm Feb 24, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting DanUK
Getting a trade to breakeven is never a loss!

As per our recent discussions... we could be expecting a bigger retracement so watch price carefully as it gets to our "areas of interest" - if price doesn't get rejected then watch above for a bigger correction.

Regards,

Dan
Dan, I dint mean that way. BE is infact a winner. Looks like I need to chose my words very carefully, especially the negative ones.

Anyhow, I shorted down from 1.36 as it fell on one of my TL's.
  • #939
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:31am Feb 25, 2010 12:31am
morning trendies,

i hope the cha ching experience continues for many of you on the euro and aussie shorts. as i said yesterday, i closed my aussie short prematurely ( i trade s/r to s/r) however i entered another short at 8927 and that is running now. for some reason oanda exited my euro short and i have asked them why. however i also blindly entered a usdchf long that is giving me the nice warm fuzzy feeling that we need on a cold grey morning.

die euro die!
  • #940
  • Feb 25, 2010 3:26am Feb 25, 2010 3:26am
hey coolshades,

the blind long entry on usdchf was ok and will always be okay as long as eur is dying......the usdchf & eurusd are STRONGLY negative correlated currently. Print the Daily or 4-hr charts of the two pairs and look at them..............made some nice pips on gbpusd short from yesterday..........why did i never ever trade with the trend...................

My usdchf and eurusd demos are all in some good profits and soo is my eurcad short.................cheers

Quoting coolshades
morning trendies,

i hope the cha ching experience continues for many of you on the euro and aussie shorts. as i said yesterday, i closed my aussie short prematurely ( i trade s/r to s/r) however i entered another short at 8927 and that is running now. for some reason oanda exited my euro short and i have asked them why. however i also blindly entered a usdchf long that is giving me the nice warm fuzzy feeling that we need on a cold grey morning.

die euro die!
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