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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,741
  • Edited 11:50pm Feb 22, 2010 11:31pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting auxesis
Charles Munger is Warren Buffett's partner in Berkshire Hathaway. Here's an article he wrote for Slate

http://www.slate.com/id/2245328/
Thank you , aux, for posting this.
His parable is very sound.
So heed it.

Never use leverage in casinos, until you KNOW how to handle its dive.
See, although the instruments of leverage exist, it a fool that will use it to its fullest, unless he has a wish for ruin (death wish if you like).Like credit cards the facility is there to convenience you in portfolio managing, more than risk taking.you add a strategic skew sword with it. Then you had better be skillful. So use the swords wisely.

The thing is it also provides them, who are not in the financial wellness to punt for that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
Is it good? I can't say. Except that most, of them,that went for the rainbow, that I had the privilege of watching, ended drowning in the seas of volatility.
then there are a few exceptions.

regards
  • #13,742
  • Edited Feb 23, 2010 12:15am Feb 22, 2010 11:48pm | Edited Feb 23, 2010 12:15am
Quoting jacson101
thanks- nice read.

One sided trade relationships with China?
just my .02.

Anyhow, a nice piece by Tom Brokaw on a proper trade relationship..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYoTJItSPt0
Thanks jacson,

Was just thinking.
The chinese Yuan (RMB , CNY) is not easily sccessible to the masses. So how does a one sided trade situation develops? Because someone facilitated it? the question is why? and of course the answer is obvious. Just 2 cts.

Is it the one who plants the poison , or the one who makes it accessible ? Foolishness of the lump? (masses)

regards
  • #13,743
  • Edited 12:53am Feb 23, 2010 12:34am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting fti
Thanks jacson,

Was just thinking.
The chinese Yuan (RMB , CNY) is not easily sccessible to the masses. So how does a one sided trade situation develops? Because someone facilitated it? the question is why? and of course the answer is obvious. Just 2 cts.

Is it the one who plants the poison , or the one who makes it accessible ?

regards
Hi fti,
your premise is very sound as always, and I understand it very well,very similar to Mr. Charlie Munger in aux's article.

Much at risk with any sudden influx, the delta's alone would not allow china to continually prosper as it has, via ppp and a floated CNY. I suspect many would not survive in such vol.,but should CNY have only NDF trading for the next 100 years?
Although, I must say you make a good market( argument).
Forgive me, but I am not of the opinion that this is poison.

regards,
  • #13,744
  • Feb 23, 2010 4:20am Feb 23, 2010 4:20am
Quoting jacson101
Hi fti,
your premise is very sound as always, and I understand it very well,very similar to Mr. Charlie Munger in aux's article.

Much at risk with any sudden influx, the delta's alone would not allow china to continually prosper as it has, via ppp and a floated CNY. I suspect many would not survive in such vol.,but should CNY have only NDF trading for the next 100 years?
Although, I must say you make a good market( argument).
Forgive me, but I am not of the opinion that this is poison.

regards,
jacson,
if you hadn't noticed, all GCBs are lost of strategies already, and resorting to devalueation , as nugging china to revalue up has failed.
it would be best for china to hedge her reserves , as well as diversify reserves to physical resources already, if she had not done so.
in fact IMHO, the poison is already in the system. Look at the china mindset vis a vis the free world mindset. She is well positioned and so long as her domestic econmy growth is robust now, it doesn't matter to her what the free world does.
Then look at the poor free world economies , pumping more and more to pay margin calls. Seems to me a case of over leveraged economies, thanks to the keynesian theory) and drowning in the poisons. Whipping out whole generations of savings and reserves. Net wise there is no reserves, only debt.( excessive exuberence)


regards
  • #13,745
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:04am Feb 23, 2010 5:04am
Quoting fti
Hi MyTbo,
Einstein's law of motion.

regards
Hi, fti

Do you mean Einstein's Relativity theory. If this is the case, then the EUR/USD must be dropping so fast that the Gold,S&P 500, DJ Industrials seem to be going up Like planets retrograde cycles

I come to the thought that investors that hold EUR are so much euro-negative that they buy Gold and US Stocks to save their earnings. If my chain of thought is correct, I wonder what should happen to reverse this EUR and EU markets negativism.

Fti, is my reasoning correct?

Regards to all, Mytbo

P.S. I managed to scalp some 33pips on GPS/USD and 45 on EUR/USD during UK Inflation Reports. EUR/USD scout from yesterday is still in at -10pips :S
  • #13,746
  • Edited 5:34am Feb 23, 2010 5:07am | Edited 5:34am
for those of you who may have missed , take a good look at your cable daily bar chart there is a lesson there.
Do you know the name of today's bar, and what is signifys?
then look at the euro, some thing may happen soon.
And plese try not to be greedy or intelligent. Keep it KISS.


regards

PS also be on lookout for CB activity
  • #13,747
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:43am Feb 23, 2010 5:43am
Quoting fti
for those of you who may have missed , take a good look at your cable daily bar chart there is a lesson there.
Do you know the name of today's bar, and what is signifys?
then look at the euro, some thing may happen soon.
And plese try not to be greedy or intelligent. Keep it KISS.


regards

PS also be on lookout for CB activity
Hello fti. I think, that todays daily bar is bigger than bars before. They are inside this bar or they maybe will be... Is it outside bar? And maybe new bottom will be created today? Regards
  • #13,748
  • Feb 23, 2010 6:01am Feb 23, 2010 6:01am
so 1.000 at the end of the year ?
crystallballing is so much fun ... i can see y ppl like doing it ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,749
  • Feb 23, 2010 8:46am Feb 23, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Fana
Hello fti. I think, that todays daily bar is bigger than bars before. They are inside this bar or they maybe will be... Is it outside bar? And maybe new bottom will be created today? Regards
It's outside bar plus key reversal, very very bearish
  • #13,750
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:06am Feb 23, 2010 11:06am
The simpler the trading method the better. Just follow the price trend and you will make money. There are a lot of people who make money trading technically.
  • #13,751
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:10am Feb 23, 2010 11:10am
Quoting fti
And plese try not to be greedy or intelligent.
Hi fti,
Difficult to do when you have the forex by the balls, but I took your words to heart and exited my trades. Who ever took the eur and gbp up today in early Europe trading, thank you for teeing up the ball for a great run south. Time for some rest. Good trading everyone.
  • #13,752
  • Edited 4:34pm Feb 23, 2010 1:06pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi fti,
Difficult to do when you have the forex by the balls, but I took your words to heart and exited my trades. Who ever took the eur and gbp up today in early Europe trading, thank you for teeing up the ball for a great run south. Time for some rest. Good trading everyone.
careful GEfx,
when teeing off with titanium driver and downwind and downhill, its hard to OB la. Hope you pinhigh for birdie. But of course i pressume you playing to single. Use your irons if you are ladies handicaper, and please look at the ball when you whack.For those of you who in the sand bunkers instead. Relax la, chip out for par.

regards
  • #13,753
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:15pm Feb 23, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting fti
careful GEfx,
when teeing off with titanium driver and downwind and downhill, its hard to OB la. Hope you pinhigh for birdie. But of course i pressume you playing to single. Use your irons if you are ladies handicaper, and please look at the ball when you whack.

regards
LOL--thank you sir for the reminders. Hope you are well!
  • #13,754
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:22pm Feb 23, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting GEfx
LOL--thank you sir for the reminders. Hope you are well!
I am good, my friend. Did that today in the cable.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #13,755
  • Edited 5:39pm Feb 23, 2010 1:32pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting imjscn
It's outside bar plus key reversal, very very bearish
yes imjscn, outside(engulfing) key reversal day in an inverted flag in cable. Also inverted flag on the cable hours. Also outside key reversalin euro hor
watch out, for oversold reactions.as well as CBs or proxies.

My little small boys are in play , so sleepless days ahead.

regards


ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo says : Euro fall not totally unjustified

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSF...pe=usDollarRpt
  • #13,756
  • Feb 23, 2010 1:49pm Feb 23, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, fti

Do you mean Einstein's Relativity theory. If this is the case, then the EUR/USD must be dropping so fast that the Gold,S&P 500, DJ Industrials seem to be going up Like planets retrograde cycles

I come to the thought that investors that hold EUR are so much euro-negative that they buy Gold and US Stocks to save their earnings. If my chain of thought is correct, I wonder what should happen to reverse this EUR and EU markets negativism.

Fti, is my reasoning correct?

Regards to all, Mytbo

P.S. I managed to scalp some...
MyTbo, KISS(keep it simple and stupid)
http://sciencefictionobserver.blogsp...anics-and.html

pay special attention to ,Inertia

& Special relativity.

regards
  • #13,757
  • Feb 23, 2010 4:23pm Feb 23, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting ScalpMachine
The simpler the trading method the better. Just follow the price trend and you will make money. There are a lot of people who make money trading technically.
Hi,
I checked you out.
You made 5 posts so far
this one makes sense.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...61&postcount=9
Do you really know what it takes?
this i ask because you said something that, I dropped like hot charcoal.

regards
  • #13,758
  • Feb 23, 2010 4:33pm Feb 23, 2010 4:33pm
i made much more money on USD/ZAR than with trading. 2.7% a day.
i thought do i earn for the high risk i take??? BIS and FIFA are probably friends (both from Switzerland)) .... and FIFA for shure talked about south africa with the BIS, before they gave them the world cup 2010.

first thing i did with profits suscribe to the economist.

i could be very wrong... so don't consider this as advice. i just want to let people here know wich way i am going.

kind greets pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,759
  • Feb 23, 2010 4:43pm Feb 23, 2010 4:43pm
Hi ALL,
I am still on the ball. Euro and cable.
this was first thoughts.
Where will we see , the high for euro and cable today?
The low I am not particularly worried about. It should be deep.

It a million $$$ question , i guess.

regards
  • #13,760
  • Feb 23, 2010 4:57pm Feb 23, 2010 4:57pm
How i see todays 5min,those big red maniac candless.... who wants to fight against such arsenal... But on the other hand... They can be so crazy to go everywhere...? Only i dont know now is if this is a calm before the storm or after the storm...
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