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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,721
  • Feb 21, 2010 6:32pm Feb 21, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting auxesis
Sobering thought for the day, specially if you live in the US.

Don't stop reading until you find the U.S. in the list.
I wonder if our placement in relation to the PIIGS is important?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2187rank.html
I was thinking about these types of things as I was considering how weak the U.S.dollar should be versus the strength its showing where it is.
And thought to myself I have a lot to learn as theres a lesson here and Im missing the point by not fully grasping it.

My view has been its a matter of manipulation or a con game of trying to restore confidence to the market. But with everything so obvious how long can something like this go on ?
  • #13,722
  • Feb 21, 2010 6:53pm Feb 21, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting lilpip
I was thinking about these types of things as I was considering how weak the U.S.dollar should be versus the strength its showing where it is.
And thought to myself I have a lot to learn as theres a lesson here and Im missing the point by not fully grasping it.

My view has been its a matter of manipulation or a con game of trying to restore confidence to the market. But with everything so obvious how long can something like this go on ?
Lilpip,

The whole system is a shell game, imho. CNBC, not that I believe they are a great source of market info, had Nouriel Roubini on talking about Greece and sovereign debt last week. Everyone's jaw literally hit the floor when he said he thought all major sovereigns would fail.

What I've noticed the last few days is the divergence of gold from the Dollar.

Since the Dollar's correction started, Gold has followed south until the height of the PIIGS fiasco, where it put in a floor+/- 1050, Where the last major IMF sale went off. The Dollar continued to gather strength as Gold started up.

My doomsday scenario will be when Gold (actually all metals and hard assets) breaks away from all currencies as people bail out (hyperinflation). Time will tell is it's happening now.

Scary times.

regards,
  • #13,723
  • Edited 7:38pm Feb 21, 2010 7:15pm | Edited 7:38pm
I hear ya im continuing to set some aside.

Im watchin e/u 3620 and how 3600 responds
keeping main trend in mind bias is down from 3694 .
  • #13,724
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:14pm Feb 21, 2010 9:14pm
Saw this on another forum, not that I agree completely with Paul, but an interesting message.

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  • #13,725
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm
Hi,

I'm a late comer and have something to clarify.
as per my understanding we're trading 5 min chart and probably aim for average 20 pips/trade within 1 or 2 hours at max.

I see one of the fti's posting
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1200931695
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=947

If you look at 1st trade, it takes him 8 hours to close.
If that is taking him so long, he could have gone through many cycles of rescue or attack operations.

Why does it takes him so long to close a single position?
  • #13,726
  • Edited 1:13am Feb 22, 2010 12:47am | Edited 1:13am
The euro will face bigger tests than Greece
By George Soros
Published: February 21 2010

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88790e8e-1...nclick_check=1

seems the finance people are learning well from computer coders. Just sell the programs first, then bug and debug them along the way. Why worry, the consuming sucker, well, what do they know.

regards
  • #13,727
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:40am Feb 22, 2010 3:40am
Quoting fti
The euro will face bigger tests than Greece
By George Soros
Published: February 21 2010

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88790e8e-1...nclick_check=1

seems the finance people are learning well from computer coders. Just sell the programs first, then bug and debug them along the way. Why worry, the consuming sucker, well, what do they know.

regards
It seems when the time comes to force a global currency, they will have their precedent for the need of a global taxing authority and government in the failed EU. They won't be able to resolve a global financial crises without it, or at least that will be the reasoning.

The deck is being stacked.
  • #13,728
  • Feb 22, 2010 4:11am Feb 22, 2010 4:11am
Quoting auxesis
It seems when the time comes to force a global currency, they will have their precedent for the need of a global taxing authority and government in the failed EU. They won't be able to resolve a global financial crises without it, or at least that will be the reasoning.

The deck is being stacked.
aux.

note that the illiquidty has forced market dance sequences to the hourly domain, 5 mins domain had become ineffective and redundant. This will require even more time constrains and exposures.

regards
  • #13,729
  • Feb 22, 2010 4:19am Feb 22, 2010 4:19am
Quoting fti
aux.

note that the illiquidty has forced market dance sequences to the hourly domain, 5 mins domain had become ineffective and redundant. This will require even more time constrains and exposures.

regards
Fti,

Thanks, I'm glad you said that, because I have felt the same thing. And have taken to the higher charts and scaled down size. I have found it hard to trade effectively as of late, not sure of it's me or markets but taking the higher view has helped.

regards,
  • #13,730
  • Feb 22, 2010 4:34am Feb 22, 2010 4:34am
there is a word for crystal balling !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias??
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,731
  • Feb 22, 2010 5:29am Feb 22, 2010 5:29am
Quoting maheswara
there is a word for crystal balling !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias??
to me, its mostly people's mind parallax errors aka rigid minds. And aux correctly posed
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regards
  • #13,732
  • Feb 22, 2010 5:51am Feb 22, 2010 5:51am
here they come again, the politics

Der Spiegel reported that German government was readying rescue package.

THEN

German FinMin spokesman: German government has made no decision on aid for Greece.

????what spokesman, nameless idiot? or he is small fry trying to be noticed.

ai ya, shameful politics. When Euro gets to 1.3400 they come with all sorts of BS. So 1.2358 is in sights?


regards
  • #13,733
  • Feb 22, 2010 7:49am Feb 22, 2010 7:49am
i think 1.000 more like it
more they talk , more concerning it is ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,734
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:21am Feb 22, 2010 8:21am
Analysis of SP 500 index by the main trader of the biggest czech broker.....

http://www.investicniweb.cz/video/20...rendovy-kanal/
  • #13,735
  • Feb 22, 2010 4:04pm Feb 22, 2010 4:04pm
Hi to all Hope your trading has been profitable while I was away. I have passed my exams and now I can get back to trading.

Fana,
If a person deosn't believe he/she can be successful in whatever he/she is doing, he most probably won't be. When I played basketball, in the most critical moments of tournament games, if I believed I can score, I shot and most of the times scored. But if I didn't have confidence in my skill, I either shot and missed, or didn't take the responsibility to shoot. However, this confidence and belief comes with practice and experience. So study and practice hard to boost your confidence. You won't be afraid to make mistakes, if you know that there will be other chances to try. So manage your risk wisely That is my humble opinion.

The pips I've made till now would mean doubling or tripling my account if I had risked more capital per trade. But if I hade lost these pips I would be crying in some dark corner.

Fti, can you give me a clue on how to interpret the divergence between EUR/USD and S&P500, Gold, DJ Industrials. So far, they had been moving in tandem, but last week they went in opposite directions.

Regards, MyTbo
  • #13,736
  • Feb 22, 2010 4:24pm Feb 22, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

The whole system is a shell game, imho....
Aloha,

I'm always wary of what this guy has to say, economists have forked tongues you know.

Big name's starting to appear in fixed income.. kampo..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...f71VVrR4&pos=7

Regards.
  • #13,737
  • Feb 22, 2010 8:35pm Feb 22, 2010 8:35pm
Charles Munger is Warren Buffett's partner in Berkshire Hathaway. Here's an article he wrote for Slate

http://www.slate.com/id/2245328/
  • #13,738
  • Edited 10:00pm Feb 22, 2010 9:43pm | Edited 10:00pm
note taken @ uj 9091 a daily area of extra interest along with 9075 area on weekly time frame.
  • #13,739
  • Edited 10:18pm Feb 22, 2010 10:03pm | Edited 10:18pm
Quoting auxesis
Charles Munger is Warren Buffett's partner in Berkshire Hathaway. Here's an article he wrote for Slate

http://www.slate.com/id/2245328/
thanks- nice read.

Seems logical that anyone turning over a "yard" in cashflow every month would take such a view. But what is it exactly that is over? One sided trade relationships with China?
just my .02.

Anyhow, a nice piece by Tom Brokaw on a proper trade relationship..

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  • #13,740
  • Feb 22, 2010 10:54pm Feb 22, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi to all Hope your trading has been profitable while I was away. I have passed my exams and now I can get back to trading.

Fana,
If a person deosn't believe he/she can be successful in whatever he/she is doing, he most probably won't be. When I played basketball, in the most critical moments of tournament games, if I believed I can score, I shot and most of the times scored. But if I didn't have confidence in my skill, I either shot and missed, or didn't take the responsibility to shoot. However, this confidence and belief comes with practice...
Hi MyTbo,
Einstein's law of motion.

regards
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