USDCAD trend reversal?

Hi Duce, One never knows. A good idea would be for the head of the SNB to give B.B. a rather heated call and remind him what the function of a global reserve currency was.

We can only dream. In the meantime flight capital remains unabatted out of Euro

Been up since early, time to go.

The recent flight out of Euro hasn't really helped the US in the USDCAD pair. Hopefully this will change.

Took partial +65 and rest out at BE. Looking to buy 1.0310/20

i went long at 1.0450 there is triple bottom forming but it broke it now so i am a little confused!! not sure if its over shot or not!!!

Took another long at 1.0404 after test of the lower limit of my zone. Did not expect such a bouce. Again, took partial and stop is at +10

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=38

great man now i am not confused it back as i want i am holding buy positions from 1.0600 and 1.0500 and 1.0450, targeting 1.0800 its matter of time 2-3 weeks fine by me it will hit it eventually..

do hope everyone is holding their longs. Dollar looks like a runaway train. Maybe see 82.00 on the dollar index by morning.
This rise if it conitinues is also lifting the Yuan so the Aus might be vunerable, I am short Aud/USD amongst others.

Just went long CHF/CAD but Canada got lucky beyond belief. So, so lucky. Lucky,lucky.lucky. Cindy score a goal and all is well. Lucky.

Numbers out of Europe were on the weak side, so the longer a correction drags out in the currency imbalances the harder the fall in the end.
The Southern tier nations need some relief and will not get it from what is currently occuring.
Slowing down the correction by soverign power so as to preserve own self interest appears to be were it is at.
The GBP is correcting faster as the Euro is slowed down.

The long USD trade may be one of just sitting on ones hands and letting it happen in time.
Do hope this makes sense to those who do not trade on fundies.

Failed retest of the 105.31/44 lows.

For those who might consider hedging their long Usd/Cad positions.
Since we seem to be experiencing two conflicting forces one the flight out of Europe and the second is the deflationary pressure from the hangover of the credit binge. The market is running both ways at the same time.
Consider shorting the Euro/Cad or today the Gbp/Cad was better so far. This way as the swings occur you have some protection until the market chooses which way is to be the trend.
These two pairs are very extended and yet they keep going. Pick your points carefully.

Just sold euro/cad and gbp/cad on the premise that todays USD weakness was an oportunity going into the close this friday. As it strenghthened the Euro and GBP above trend
Not sure if there is any life in the USD/CAD after todays price action. Just looked horrible after the London close.
Have a good weekend and Duce maybe you were not greedy enough. Will find out soon

always read your post, thanks foto.

Have a nice weekendd

Hi hohoho, thanks for the compliment.
Since you read the post as you may have noticed I deleted the addendum. That info may be worth something to you. If you remember about the different fibo levels I wrote about and the pairs. Do it for yourself on your charts then look at the differences of the 38.2% retrace.
That is the upside potential Do it for each chart the USD index and the Usd/Cad then just stare at each chart and look for the difference between the two. Also bare in mind that this link is about reversal.

Play with the idea and think as if you were Sherlock Holmes. You should recognize what I am writing about. Look for an imbalance Good luck
Remember there are no sure things, but this idea is pretty amazing

Scenario,
The U.S. is at a juncture where its status as a world power has become a National Security issue. The deficits will bring down the U.S.D as the worlds reserve currency. If the U.S.D falls, so falls the world financial system, and with that world trade. Not a science fiction plot any longer. This is not an option for governments. Trade cannot continue if we go back to counting Gold coin.
The long USD/CAD trade is about the awakening that the juncture is at hand. Some of the load of carrying the reserve currency status was to be picked up by Europe. In that way the U.S. economy would have the chance to rebuild itself, not by consumerism fueled by the Fed but through exports.
Europe was not up to the task. The Euro and GBP have been falling against the USD. The dollar has strengthened and the export lead recovery will not happen without the U.S. becoming very competitive.

Therefore inflating away the problem is no longer an option.
The hangover from the debt binge coupled with a stronger dollar will cause deflation. The markets are obsessed with inflation. The real world outside of financials is experiencing deflation from debt.
As fine nations like Australia and Canada pick up some load their economies are much too small to be reserve currencies. the world is stuck with the U.S.D. for better or worse. When markets comprehend that deflation and not inflation is what is in the future they will correct. The mania driven by fear has skewed the commodity currencies heavily into the " inflation is the only outcome camp"
Therein is the basis for a shift of sentiment.

Another contributing factor is that China has the Renminbi pegged to the USD. It has been achieving prosperity by having an artificialy depressed currency. The rest of the world will no longer tolerate that situation.
The USD is rising also from the lift of the undervalued Chinese currency. China will not break that peg, for it would be political suicide for the communist government in China to have a collapsing economy with the unrest at home it would create.
China did not seek the outside world to be nice guys, they did it so the political elite would maintain power. Machiavelli at work.

Technicals reveal that there is a distorted valuation in the market. A rather large one at that. It may get more distorted. I am hedging that distortion by shorting the Euro/Cad and the Gbp/Cad. When these hedges no longer gain value then the time is revealed for the shift in sentiment. The capital flight from Europe has changed course in effect.
The Usd/Cad exploded on the mere mention of the Fed having possibly changed direction. An acceptance that as much as Bernanke and Obama are not to be trusted but have no choice, then the market will shift.

Politicaly the U.S. is facing a groudswell of populist unrest that American central government policy is out of touch with America. A populist revolt is in the staging grounds for November.
In addition major bond players have announced the new normal philosphy (pimco's El Erian) will be the guide for investment, so the bond market has reached its' limits as to accepting inflated dollars instead of real money.

These are my thoughts. It is a trade because the downside is limited and the upside has potential for significant gains. It is not a prediction of certainty but based upon the observation that markets overindulge themes. These markets have overindulged fear.
These are the thoughts that guide my trading decisions.
Thank you for reading them.
Foto

[quote=foto;3484262]Scenario,
The U.S. is at a juncture where its status as a world power has become a National Security issue. The deficits will bring down the U.S.D as the worlds reserve currency. If the U.S.D falls, so falls the world financial system, and with that world trade. Not a science fiction plot any longer. This is not an option for governments. Trade cannot continue if we go back to counting Gold coin.
The long USD/CAD trade is about the awakening that the juncture is at hand. Some of the load of carrying the reserve currency status was to be picked up by Europe. In that way the U.S. economy would have the chance to rebuild itself, not by consumerism fueled by the Fed but through exports.

I take my hat off to you. A nice insight of the fundamentals.
Each to their own. I simply try to trade what the charts tell me, but a good read nonetheless.

Funny stuff, this forex. I moved my long SL up to my original buy when I was up 100 pips, only to comeback to my computer a day later and see that I was stopped out. I just had to laugh. What the hell did you guys do on Friday?! Anyways, my month has been very successful so far. If and when I do trade this pair this month, it will be with house money...and then some.

My current thought is my original game plan. Down to 1.0232-47 area, with 1.0313-21 in between. But I don't have any positions in the UC. I do have an EU short which is red right now.

Trade well people.

Since there appears to be a slight shift occuring in the market, I have closed my hedges in alignment with the scenario. Asia was exuberant and overconfident. Europe appears uncertain and the U.S. open in equities appears uncertain.
Have added to the USD/CAD long on this mornings slight strength.
Really have no certainty that sentiment shift is occuring, but we may be getting some profit taking in the Euro/Cad and Gbp/Cad which would indicate the unwillingness of the market to add to established positions.

ps: It is as if some entity is trying to convince the market that the Euro is still gold plated. The line from the show Chicago comes to mind, "do you want to believe what you see or what I tell you"

Yo: FOTO, Venge, Duce, Cloud et al.

All your input was fantastic. Surely, someone made pips regardless of the trading TF ( & one's trading technique).

My head still is not into making trades. However, the W up TL (4/11/07 to
10/01/10) is valid. STO is down & MacD is < than the water line.

The 50 ema is down & 34 is <50.

My thought: if 1.0250 ( my line in the sand is broken). Then parity could be reached & I won't have to buy poutine!

Uncle Gromit has great charts with my Loonie short thoughts.

CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!!!!

FOTO, from my limited reading of fundies-I still believe that you are "right on". USD will be the reserve currency for now.

Hi Scarcru,
Nice to have you post.
It is hard to trade a minority view, but the fundies are pointing to deflation ahead. That message just isn't mainstream belief.
French retail sales fell and German IFO was weak. Germany is not going to stay with the Euro if the only option is to print money to save the alliance. The Germanic people suffered dearly for the Weimar Republic collapse, therein is the fatal notion that Europe will bail out soverign debt without severe penalties.
In this age of economist theory by socialism ideology, it is they that currently control monetary policy and trading desks so the one trade is to sell the reserve currency as the only outcome, would be inflation.
Will see if there are further signs in price movement that anyone is taking into account that deflation is an outcome and will most likely be for the future.
Japan is an example that is going on now.
For position traders these swings in market emotion are not easy.

Also it is impossible for me to believe that China is not actively working to use its' trade deficit holdings of USD to weaken the dollar so as to maintain a competitive edge for China. We have had that discussion previously about the Dollar peg. So the after midnight attacks on the USD keep happening in my view.


I see on the news page there is a post that the SNB intervened. I guess anything is possible.