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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,681
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:52pm Feb 18, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting lilpip
eyes open e/u 3454
looking at weekly timeframe after fridays close bias was down from 3785 and up from 3454.
sure feels southbown to me.
e/u friday
3736
3564
3391
yeah,
that reversal yesterday opened the door for those levels possibly.. looking @ u/y and y crosses upside could be capped no follow through..
Markets possibly scared as auxesis said.

Regards.
  • #13,682
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:12pm Feb 18, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting jacson101
yeah,
that reversal yesterday opened the door for those levels possibly.. looking @ u/y and y crosses upside could be capped no follow through..
Markets possibly scared as auxesis said.

Regards.
Market is so tilted long dollar, weak Euro atm, she was primed I though for a good short squeeze, Swiss stepped in and then the Fed, boom!

Anything is possible but 3360/90 looks like the floor for this dive if it makes it there. When the dust settles look for a prolonged range trade, probably slowly sinking south, heading into tom NY, imho.

regards,
  • #13,683
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:35pm Feb 18, 2010 7:35pm
Quoting auxesis
Market is so tilted long dollar, weak Euro atm, she was primed I though for a good short squeeze, Swiss stepped in and then the Fed, boom!

Anything is possible but 3360/90 looks like the floor for this dive if it makes it there. When the dust settles look for a prolonged range trade, probably slowly sinking south, heading into tom NY, imho.

regards,
yes, this CB stuff has kept everyone busy as it were.
e/u outlier sub 130 or north of 139 both big fig's ($$$ barriers)
yen pairs and commodity ccy are interesting, spend a lot of time on them.
..Outside reversal late in the day $/CAD... e/y had a chance for an outside punch reversal today, didn't work out...

Surviving and thriving waiting on more fishing expeditions..stay nimb..

regards aux.
  • #13,684
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:28pm Feb 18, 2010 9:28pm
Have you seen this?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-bu....html?x=0&.v=3
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,685
  • Feb 19, 2010 1:26am Feb 19, 2010 1:26am
Quoting jacson101
yeah,
that reversal yesterday opened the door for those levels possibly.. looking @ u/y and y crosses upside could be capped no follow through..
Markets possibly scared as auxesis said.

Regards.
yes absolutely trying to manipulate
although owner, they can still get hurt.
25 basis points is nothing

regards

now lets see what chet's got, nothing i presume
more sucking up,maybe.

caution wild rides ahead, watch size
  • #13,686
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:11am Feb 19, 2010 5:11am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Pax,

I hope you are doing fine. I guess you received my PM or email by now.

Good luck to you.

Cheers,
heey pete,

i am doing fine thank you...

i've sent you an email to your yahoo-account, maybe it's in your spam folder?? i'll send you an new mail to see if it arrives

Good luck to you too mate
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,687
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:34am Feb 19, 2010 5:34am
After 3/4 year in trading my DD of all invested capital is 38%. I take this like this should be and i am sure, that it was worth it. Looking ahead and still improving are what we need to develop being a trader.
  • #13,688
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:18am Feb 19, 2010 6:18am
One question for profitable traders... How certain are you that you are profitable? Are you 100% sure, that also when you lose some trades, you are profitable and without emotions you can close your book in minus for that day and know that next time it will be ok? regards.

Because what i cant still say: What will be when i will have finished my trading day..."
  • #13,689
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:23am Feb 19, 2010 6:23am
Quoting Fana
Are you 100% sure, that also when you lose some trades, you are profitable and without emotions you can close your book in minus for that day and know that next time it will be ok?
Yes
  • #13,690
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:27am Feb 19, 2010 6:27am
Quoting GEfx
Yes
My admiration.

And it is very important to hear that it can be said with 100%. Thank you.
  • #13,691
  • Feb 19, 2010 6:55am Feb 19, 2010 6:55am
Quoting Fana
One question for profitable traders... How certain are you that you are profitable? Are you 100% sure, that also when you lose some trades, you are profitable and without emotions you can close your book in minus for that day and know that next time it will be ok? regards.

Because what i cant still say: What will be when i will have finished my trading day..."
Yes. One needs to. Happened to me today - did not pay attention and paid the price. The market takes no prisoners. It takes brains and balls, but there's always another day.
  • #13,692
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:02am Feb 19, 2010 7:02am
looks like bernanke is testing ground with his scout ...
on the other hand euro cant increase rate when some of their members are in bad shape ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,693
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:19am Feb 19, 2010 7:19am
Quoting Fana
One question for profitable traders... How certain are you that you are profitable? Are you 100% sure, that also when you lose some trades, you are profitable and without emotions you can close your book in minus for that day and know that next time it will be ok? regards.

Because what i cant still say: What will be when i will have finished my trading day..."
You have to have respect or fear of the markets, understanding how quick they can hurt you. But you cannot trade with fear of yourself.

You have to have belief in yourself, abilities to succeed, this applies to all things, not just trading. If you don't think you can make it trading - why risk your money? That mindset is gambling, uncertain.

To make it, you have to answer that question in the affirmative. Yes I understand what I am doing and know I can do it. Until you can say that and believe it, do not put money in the market. Demo until the mechanics are correct ( ok, I know I am trading correctly, mechanically) then start small, so small it does not hurt much to lose your book , and then work on controlling the emotions as you increase size.

You have heard it said over and over, It's the trader that makes it or breaks it. I would contend that psychological aspects are the root of most all trading problems. Sadly most are in denial, ( or totally blind to the fact) as they blame the markets or systems for their failure. It's always something else, never themselves. You will find Fana, although correct trading technique is essential, that it's more about yourself and adjusting your specific mental quirks that define success.

Everyone, after enough time will have dry spells. It's not the ability, it's the ego that FTI talks about, getting in the way. The real trader understands it, takes his/hers medicine and continues on, after correctly identifying and adjusting the id (mind).

Time to trade, news out in a few.

regards,
  • #13,694
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:04am Feb 19, 2010 8:04am
Quoting auxesis
You have to have respect or fear of the markets, understanding how quick they can hurt you....
Thanks Auxesis. Wise words. I am going to work to handle it. I have to do just some research, so that is why i ask again and again... I cant allow myself to do mistakes forever. Happy weekend
  • #13,695
  • Edited 9:25am Feb 19, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting fti
yes absolutely trying to manipulate
although owner, they can still get hurt.
25 basis points is nothing

regards

now lets see what chet's got, nothing i presume
more sucking up,maybe.

caution wild rides ahead, watch size
Hi fti,
not sure what is meant by owner and chet?
Probably need to read through once again.
25 bps.. swap curve priced, u/y 1year coming in. A sign of strength maybe?

Will be taking some time off, need some r/r..
Olympics in my country.

I heard that resorts world casino in sg is outstanding( although only half complete?)

Regards


Inserted Video
  • #13,696
  • Feb 19, 2010 9:20am Feb 19, 2010 9:20am
Quoting jacson101
Hi fti,
not sure what is meant by owner and chet?
Probably need to read through once again.

Will be taking some time off, need some r/r..
Olympics in my country.

I heard that resorts world casino in sg is outstanding( although only half complete?)

Regards


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Knbh7TkX6A
Let me guess.

Owners are licensed to print the paper money of their countries CBs

Chet is Europe's counterpart of heli

Regards
  • #13,697
  • Feb 19, 2010 9:27am Feb 19, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Baifu
Let me guess.

Owners are licensed to print the paper money of their countries CBs

Chet is Europe's counterpart of heli

Regards
got it

thanks
  • #13,698
  • Feb 19, 2010 7:02pm Feb 19, 2010 7:02pm
When your mind merges your soul

Inserted Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3lWwBslWqg
  • #13,699
  • Feb 19, 2010 11:19pm Feb 19, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting Setebos
When your mind merges your soul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3lWwBslWqg
, Setebos
yes, the police, he still kicks up storms.
thanks

regards
  • #13,700
  • Feb 19, 2010 11:25pm Feb 19, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting jacson101
Hi fti,

I heard that resorts world casino in sg is outstanding( although only half complete?)

Regards


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Knbh7TkX6A
jacson,
outstanding is good.
But when I sit on the tables, everything fades into the background. In fact all those pretty topless dancers, well, just distractions.but it adds to background ambience.

regards
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