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  • #81
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:31am Feb 19, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Ctic
I first one I did simply because I messed up originally. Second one I did it bacasue of the news event. I anticapted the down movement (and actually scalped it a little too which was nice.) I do think we will see a bit of an uptrace, but when is the question. Quite honestly I may not keep this trade and close manually if we get a new low again past 5350

In addition, I have had a very excellent week so this trade isn't hurting me too much. Even if it closes @ 1.5300 I will still be 750 pips for the week. Not too shabby. I just don't like watching lower and lower lows with absolutely no highs. All my longer term charts are pegged at the 161.8 and 138.2 fib lines hence why it doesn't want to go too much down. But it doesn't want to go up either. This past news event was WAY negative news for GBP and yet didn't really move anywhere.
  • #82
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:35am Feb 19, 2010 2:35am
Still think it is a downtrend but will retrace to 1.5525 area (the 0 fib line before further movement downward continues. I may be wrong though.
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  • #83
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:44am Feb 19, 2010 2:44am
Quoting Ctic
In addition, I have had a very excellent week so this trade isn't hurting me too much. Even if it closes @ 1.5300 I will still be 750 pips for the week. Not too shabby. I just don't like watching lower and lower lows with absolutely no highs. All my longer term charts are pegged at the 161.8 and 138.2 fib lines hence why it doesn't want to go too much down. But it doesn't want to go up either. This past news event was WAY negative news for GBP and yet didn't really move anywhere.
Yeah, I had a good week up until Wednesday...LOL I was up almost 300 pips. I've lost all that getting suckered at every fib level expecting a long bounce.

I have a long at 5380 right now. But if I don't get some positive looking PA soon, I'll cut it loose and done for the week.

This week was sort of a test for me. First half of the week trading one way, second half another. The results seem clear to me.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #84
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:49am Feb 19, 2010 2:49am
Quoting albchr
Yeah, I had a good week up until Wednesday...LOL I was up almost 300 pips. I've lost all that getting suckered at every fib level expecting a long bounce.

I have a long at 5380 right now. But if I don't get some positive looking PA soon, I'll cut it loose and done for the week.

This week was sort of a test for me. First half of the week trading one way, second half another. The results seem clear to me.
I know what you mean. That is a reason I use multiple trading styles. Figures I took yesterday off not trading and didn't start until tonight. I had a beautiful bear flag on the daily chart I could of played too. By the time I sat down to trade it dropped about 400 pips or so. Figures.
  • #85
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:55am Feb 19, 2010 2:55am
Quoting Ctic
I know what you mean. That is a reason I use multiple trading styles. Figures I took yesterday off not trading and didn't start until tonight. I had a beautiful bear flag on the daily chart I could of played too. By the time I sat down to trade it dropped about 400 pips or so. Figures.
Don't feel bad. I had a short at 5795 because this is what I thought I saw coming. I covered it too fast, got taken out for +4 pips and BANG! There she goes....LOL

That was under the first method this week. Guess which one I'm starting with next week? LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #86
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:05am Feb 19, 2010 3:05am
Quoting albchr
Don't feel bad. I had a short at 5795 because this is what I thought I saw coming. I covered it too fast, got taken out for +4 pips and BANG! There she goes....LOL

That was under the first method this week. Guess which one I'm starting with next week? LOL
LOL... Yeah stick with what works.
  • #87
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:41am Feb 19, 2010 3:41am
Quoting Ctic
LOL... Yeah stick with what works.
What concerns me most right now is the USDX. Rising off a good 4H TL ATM. The PA on GU here isn't giving me much confidance either ATM....LOL

30M chart
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #88
  • Feb 19, 2010 4:58am Feb 19, 2010 4:58am
Quoting albchr
What concerns me most right now is the USDX. Rising off a good 4H TL ATM. The PA on GU here isn't giving me much confidance either ATM....LOL

30M chart
Agreed. The USDX has been very powerful the past several days (or couple weeks for that matter). Unfortunately it appears that the 1.54 mark is posing some resistance right now as well. If we can close above this point, I will feel a little more secure. I have scalped 81 pips tonight so if I even break even in this trade I will ge looking ok.
  • #89
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:09am Feb 19, 2010 5:09am
Quoting Ctic
Agreed. The USDX has been very powerful the past several days (or couple weeks for that matter). Unfortunately it appears that the 1.54 mark is posing some resistance right now as well. If we can close above this point, I will feel a little more secure. I have scalped 81 pips tonight so if I even break even in this trade I will ge looking ok.
Yep..

And if we can't by a couple hours after NY open, I'm out if not stopped out already...LOL

NICE on the scalps. I'm refraining from that this week. Don't want to scew the results of my little test here.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #90
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:55am Feb 19, 2010 5:55am
Quoting Ctic
Trying a little counter trend trading here.

G/U long @ 1.5429 (.4) SL 1.5390

Looking for scalp on retrace. Hit 161.8 fib, good spot for bounce
Long amended 1.5339. TP 1.5500

Why you ask do I have SL at 1.5339. During the course of the night I scalped 89 pips, thus now the SL is BE + 5. Got em green why give em back.
  • #91
  • Feb 20, 2010 12:48am Feb 20, 2010 12:48am
Quote
Still think it is a downtrend but will retrace to 1.5525 area (the 0 fib line before further movement downward continues. I may be wrong though.

Hi Ctic,

Great trades you take based on fib analysis.

I trade daily charts using candlestick, monthly pivot and fib and i was of the opinion that we are due for a retracement on GBP/USD from jan 19 high to feb 19 low.

Point A- 1.6460

Point B- 1.5347

Once we retace, we will get point C from where we can use fib projection.

This is a longer term trade based on daily TF.

What are your views regarding the above fib analysis?
  • #92
  • Feb 20, 2010 1:27am Feb 20, 2010 1:27am
... i can learn something here .... keep up
  • #93
  • Edited 10:28am Feb 21, 2010 10:24am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting kingfisher
Hi Ctic,

Great trades you take based on fib analysis.

I trade daily charts using candlestick, monthly pivot and fib and i was of the opinion that we are due for a retracement on GBP/USD from jan 19 high to feb 19 low.

Point A- 1.6460

Point B- 1.5347

Once we retace, we will get point C from where we can use fib projection.

This is a longer term trade based on daily TF.

What are your views regarding the above fib analysis?
Kingfisher,

Thanks for you post here and welcome.

The 1.5525 mark that I referred to was taht 138.2 fib line which was stop one. Now is when the timing comes into play. We are at the end of the month, end of the quarter and coming on the beginning of the next month. I believe we should see retrace here moving up through the fibs. I believe that we will go up to the 1.6295 to 1.6400 area and then beging the move downward. This Timing as I call it will nicely make the upper and lower shadows for the longer term candles.

I do play day by day, and usually close out to take advantages of the retraces. Friday's trade was an exception since it went just a little lower originally than I anticipated. I like the pinbar candle that we ended up with, the fib we ended up at, and we are at the bottom of channel. Today's candle will be a good conformation candle but I am planning on playing long still.

C.
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  • #94
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:25am Feb 21, 2010 10:25am
Quoting dogol
... i can learn something here .... keep up
Dogol,

Welcome and thankyou. As I say I hope people can learn something from me and likewise I hope to learn from others. The more knowledge you have the better and more powerful you become.

Knowledge is power.

C.
  • #95
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:08am Feb 21, 2010 11:08am
Hi Ctic

Enjoying the thread and would like to be in the board room.

I have endeavored to set myself a standard on how to draw fibs. Your opinion here would be great.

What I do is each fib is drawn only if price crosses the 50 ma according to the time frame of the chart. So in my posted chart price retraced a few pips past 61.8 fib. My entry would be the close beyond the 8ma 3 candles latter. I add the zigzag to the chart to help with quickly finding tops and bottoms usually it works. I played with the settings on it to coincide as close as possible to the 50 ma.

So anyway let me know your thoughts.

Rufus
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #96
  • Feb 21, 2010 2:37pm Feb 21, 2010 2:37pm
Rufus,

Welcome to the boardroom and I am glad you enjoy it. I hope we can both learn off each other, so feel free to post in here any time.

IMHO, I would draw the fibs at the conclusion of the session. Each session has highs and lows which affects the way the MA's move. Remember MA's are lagging indicators where fibs are not. Fibs are simply levels, like a tape measure. Just so happens they tend to wind up on the supports and resistances.. Thus for your 15M chart posted I like using the 4H candle as the session. Thus the 4H candle portray's the session of the 15M chart and can give you a heads up to what the MA's are doing.

Ask yourself this..What happens if we are in a strong trend and price does not cross the 50MA just keeps moving downwards/upwards? You would not have any accurate target levels left at this point, thus not know where to exit or re-enter.

Also you may want to add the 200 SMA/EMA. Great long term MA's to have and many times that is a spot of real great support and resistance (overall trend.)

Remember there is no single correct way to trade. There are many good methods out there, and if it isn't broken don't fix it. Your MA's you currently use are good ones IMHO. I definately love having up to date fibs though since they do measure support and resistance, and since the levels are always changing.

C.

Quoting Rufus
Hi Ctic

Enjoying the thread and would like to be in the board room.

I have endeavored to set myself a standard on how to draw fibs. Your opinion here would be great.

What I do is each fib is drawn only if price crosses the 50 ma according to the time frame of the chart. So in my posted chart price retraced a few pips past 61.8 fib. My entry would be the close beyond the 8ma 3 candles latter. I add the zigzag to the chart to help with quickly finding tops and bottoms usually it works. I played with the settings on it to coincide as close...
  • #97
  • Feb 21, 2010 8:16pm Feb 21, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting Ctic
Trying a little counter trend trading here.

G/U long @ 1.5429 (.4) SL 1.5390

Looking for scalp on retrace. Hit 161.8 fib, good spot for bounce
G/U long 1.5429 (.4) closed @ 1.5491.
  • #98
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:07pm Feb 21, 2010 10:07pm
thought you had a thread I was looking for one with ctic in the name, goofy farmers lol, thanks , got some reading material now
  • #99
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:10pm Feb 21, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting digger1
thought you had a thread I was looking for one with ctic in the name, goofy farmers lol, thanks , got some reading material now
LOL...

Well, welcome Digger I hope you enjoy it. Please feel free to post any comments, questions, arguments, etc.

C.
  • #100
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:11pm Feb 21, 2010 10:11pm
Thought it was fitting that since it's my thread to have the 100th post. So here it is....
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