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Silent Service Method

  • #7,241
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:58am Feb 18, 2010 6:58am
Quoting clockwork71
Cable

Looks like our flag in cable has broken down a bit......it will be confirmed as we make a new low. I have a small position in this pair, (short) and think we may eventually see something close to 1.50-1.55 or so.
  • #7,242
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:18am Feb 18, 2010 7:18am
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like our flag in cable has broken down a bit......it will be confirmed as we make a new low. I have a small position in this pair, (short) and think we may eventually see something close to 1.50-1.55 or so.
Depends on the news soon , Can we break 55!, in my view we should retrace up first also with e/u retrace up but because fear on the market and news soon
I'm Flat
  • #7,243
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:12am Feb 18, 2010 8:12am
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like our flag in cable has broken down a bit......it will be confirmed as we make a new low. I have a small position in this pair, (short) and think we may eventually see something close to 1.50-1.55 or so.
Moving nicely. My chart showed a 2 bar reversal, would have been safe to target the bottom of the range-the 2 day chart shows a hikkake pattern. Maybe it will break out of the range and drop some more?

Good luck.

I played the inside bar on usd/cad daily for a long and things don't look so hot. lol That darn oil currency.
  • #7,244
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:49am Feb 18, 2010 8:49am
Does anyone wonder why almost everything comes in twos? Hehehehehehe............

My two trades for this week PBs on GBPCAD & EURNZD got the SLs hit........looks like the best way to play these PBs is to wait for them to break................i play them using a retracement style but off late this is not working.............currently backtesting the break style....cheers guyz/galz......am done for the week.........got hit the BOOZE tomorrow to celebrate my Negative Wins...........
  • #7,245
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:33am Feb 18, 2010 9:33am
Quoting clockwork71
Threw up a new public video. Check the "twitter" links on front page of web site.

Chris
Hi Chris

Just checked the video, great stuff.

I just want to thank you for this thread. I heard about it in other thread in FF I'm following.

I'm yet another undercapitalized newbie who makes a mind breakthrough reading your thread. I only read 1400 posts so far, but it has really affected my perception of how to think about trading. Somehow, the 15 to 20 books I read during these months (including one by Pring), and the other threads and internet stuff and chats with more experienced traders and so on, have actually clicked in because of the way you explain it. There's something about it that really works, so anyway, cheers for that, brillant, very generous and cool of you.

I was also very happy to see your recent post 7239 about cable, as I had noticed the 2-day pin on the daily at the bottom of a zone I thought could be important.

I've been drawing lots of S/R Zones, and to be honest I struggle a bit, as I tend to draw too many. I notice you tend to ignore some zones but still don't know how to choose them.

Once I finished reading this thread, which will probably take me a few more weeks between practice and my job, I might have to ask you more about how to tell the important weekly zones from the not so important (if I don't find it in the thread before). Until then: thanks mate!
  • #7,246
  • Edited 11:18am Feb 18, 2010 11:05am | Edited 11:18am
Here is the cad might be setting a triple bottom right on a good zone not quite there but something Ive been looking for a bit now. so maybe the dollar can get some of the cad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,247
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:55pm Feb 18, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting kodflakes
Here is the cad might be setting a triple bottom right on a good zone not quite there but something Ive been looking for a bit now. so maybe the dollar can get some of the cad

It is certainly at the right place......
  • #7,248
  • Feb 18, 2010 3:57pm Feb 18, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting sebafx
Hi Chris

Just checked the video, great stuff.

I just want to thank you for this thread. I heard about it in other thread in FF I'm following.

I'm yet another undercapitalized newbie who makes a mind breakthrough reading your thread. I only read 1400 posts so far, but it has really affected my perception of how to think about trading. Somehow, the 15 to 20 books I read during these months (including one by Pring), and the other threads and internet stuff and chats with more experienced traders and so on, have actually clicked in because of the...
Thanks a lot of the kind words. And sure....paying attentino to the right S/R is paramount. Of course - it take s a little time to learn which ones are more important than others.....but if you have a question about a chart - fire away mate.....I will give my opinion promptly.

Welcome,
Chris
  • #7,249
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:06pm Feb 18, 2010 4:06pm
Fed just raised the discount rate, so in case any of you are wondering why a bunch of currencies just went nuts... look no further.
  • #7,250
  • Feb 18, 2010 4:16pm Feb 18, 2010 4:16pm
hey clock, cool new blog site. I tune in everyday to see if anything is new.
The idea you suggested about you opening up an account just to trade week/month charts sounds interesting, i would be interested to see what kind of results you can get from that. It does seem this higher timeframe trading is the way to go, with or without a job.

speaking of which surely these aussie crosses have to go up soon? such as EA and GA etc. Just looking at the monthlys and im not sure. it could almost be worth taking a position long without pa?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,251
  • Feb 18, 2010 5:44pm Feb 18, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting supermatt
hey clock, cool new blog site. I tune in everyday to see if anything is new.
The idea you suggested about you opening up an account just to trade week/month charts sounds interesting, i would be interested to see what kind of results you can get from that. It does seem this higher timeframe trading is the way to go, with or without a job.

speaking of which surely these aussie crosses have to go up soon? such as EA and GA etc. Just looking at the monthlys and im not sure. it could almost be worth taking a position long without pa?

Looks like we will have a BEOB on the 4h & a Pin on the daily but it seems this pair just keeps going down.

Actually this brings me to a question, if you have a PA signal blatantly caused by news such as we have now. Do we take that into consideration or just assess it as normal?

Hope that makes sense?
Learning to be rigid in my rules & flexible in my expectations
  • #7,252
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:27pm Feb 18, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting Treefingers
Looks like we will have a BEOB on the 4h & a Pin on the daily but it seems this pair just keeps going down.

Actually this brings me to a question, if you have a PA signal blatantly caused by news such as we have now. Do we take that into consideration or just assess it as normal?

Hope that makes sense?
Yes, I understand. Typically, trading the news is about the reaction....not what is "supposed" to happen. So in a sense, I wouldn't worry so much about the news event - just the market's reaction to said news.

Think of it this way: It's not the why that matters, but the what.
  • #7,253
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:31pm Feb 18, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting supermatt
hey clock, cool new blog site. I tune in everyday to see if anything is new.
The idea you suggested about you opening up an account just to trade week/month charts sounds interesting, i would be interested to see what kind of results you can get from that. It does seem this higher timeframe trading is the way to go, with or without a job.

speaking of which surely these aussie crosses have to go up soon? such as EA and GA etc. Just looking at the monthlys and im not sure. it could almost be worth taking a position long without pa?
I am going to tell you a great secret about trading: It's not so much the shape of the bar. It's not even the place as much. Any idiot can be right half the time....but it comes down to how comfortable you are.

If you look at the chart you pulled up, I would say there's a damn good chance that it will bounce. Here's the question: Would you be comfortable in this position? You could buy it and hang on for 2000 pips.....but it might shake you out of the trade between now and then.

I am very interested in this pair at the moment, and have bought it about 3 times in the last 6 weeks or so. I am seriously thinking of going long soon.
  • #7,254
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:32pm Feb 18, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Fed just raised the discount rate, so in case any of you are wondering why a bunch of currencies just went nuts... look no further.
Actually, that's not the issue. I hear Samer put on 4 positions today. lol

  • #7,255
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:42pm Feb 18, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, I understand. Typically, trading the news is about the reaction....not what is "supposed" to happen. So in a sense, I wouldn't worry so much about the news event - just the market's reaction to said news.

Think of it this way: It's not the why that matters, but the what.
They key in my view for successful trade MM , Can History repeat it self we will see
Happy to see you Chris
  • #7,256
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:55pm Feb 18, 2010 6:55pm
Quoting clockwork71
I might consider playing it for a bounce....but please remember that you are counter-trend on this one. Be careful, and don't let a gain turn into a loss. I never let that happen on a counter-trend trade. (At least I try not to let it happen. )
Hi Chris,

Here is my mistake ( I think I should write a book - "How not to trade" and document everything I have done. Will be a great book :-)).

I bought this one and lost ( in hindsight, now I understand Samer's thought process when he said break of trend line). This is what I thought when I bought it.

1. It was going back to the same support area where it bounced back from last time ( very strong even on weekly). I failed to understand counter trend argument. Don't we always counter trend when price goes downward from resistance to support and then we buy at support ( assuming it as a reversal)? Is strong weekly support more important or strong weekly trend? ( see the image and it worked last time it touched the same support zone with similar pin)

2. It was nice enough pin

Anyways. We can not win every trade ( and I only lose 1% so no biggy). I am curious about points regarding counter trending. Every real trade is a learning session :-) but I am enjoying it.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,257
  • Feb 18, 2010 7:43pm Feb 18, 2010 7:43pm
hi
i am sorry i should have posted a chart with this trendline .
as u said it is a lesson . so it will bring u money in future , look at it this way and this loss will look like investment
happy trading
samer
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,

Here is my mistake ( I think I should write a book - "How not to trade" and document everything I have done. Will be a great book :-)).

I bought this one and lost ( in hindsight, now I understand Samer's thought process when he said break of trend line). This is what I thought when I bought it.

1. It was going back to the same support area where it bounced back from last time ( very strong even on weekly). I failed to understand counter trend argument. Don't we always counter trend when price goes downward from resistance to support...
  • #7,258
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:17pm Feb 18, 2010 8:17pm
lol , how did u know ?


Quoting clockwork71
Actually, that's not the issue. I hear Samer put on 4 positions today. lol

  • #7,259
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:56pm Feb 18, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,

Here is my mistake ( I think I should write a book - "How not to trade" and document everything I have done. Will be a great book :-)).

I bought this one and lost ( in hindsight, now I understand Samer's thought process when he said break of trend line). This is what I thought when I bought it.

1. It was going back to the same support area where it bounced back from last time ( very strong even on weekly). I failed to understand counter trend argument. Don't we always counter trend when price goes downward from resistance to support...

#1 You were correct in looking at that area. However, you could have perhaps waited to see if it went a bit above not only the pinbar on the daily that formed, but the trend line as well. (That is a more conservative way to trade it.) Do not worry - your interest in this area was well founded, the execution was a little off is all.

The rest of this could be an entire course in itself. Actually, you should think of the pinbar as a reversal signal, and no - it's not always counter trend. The best pins are actually with the trend, and a retest of a S/R line that was resistance, and is now proving to be support.

When you look at the trend - it needs to be obvious on the weekly. Take the GBP/USD at the moment, we have broken support, and it shouldn't be a surprise....it's in a down trend! We have just been consolidating over hte last few months is all.

Trend lines matter, yes.....but mainly I only pay attention to weekly, and dead obvious.

#2 Great quote. Like you said: It's only 1%, and it's a learning experience. Like samer said - consider it an investment.
  • #7,260
  • Feb 18, 2010 10:57pm Feb 18, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting samer960
lol , how did u know ?

You always shake the markets don't you????
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