Skracor's Thoughts and Journal of Trading

Two possible trade entries coming up. I will be watching the close of these candles very closely.

Eur/Usd Long
Usd/Chf Short

That was a fun Eur/Jpy trade. Shorted at 124.57 exited at 124.74.

Reasoning H4 was overbought M5 went into a down trend. got price confirmation and used a 17pip stoploss.

Explanation of what I am thinking with this strategy:

I have plotted four MAs.
8 smma high
8 smma low
8 smma median
35 sma median

You will notice none of the MAs are on the close price. This makes them more stable and they will not 'run away' from the price when approached.

The 8 smma median is merely the middle of the channel.

The 35 sma median is a rough trend indicator(When the channel is above UP, when the channel is below DOWN). I can accomplish the same thing looking at HH HL and LH LL and TL but this allows me the freedom to open my chart and just go with whatever direction it says.

My entries are defined by a simple logic. If the Trend is down(channel below 35) and Price fails to close above the average High(8 smma high) the Trend is holding and it is safe to Short the pair. The opposite is true for Longs: if the Trend is up(channel above the 35) and Price fails to close below the average Low(8 smma low) the Trend is holding and it is safe to Buy the pair. This logic however only holds for the immediate future(the next 2-4 candles). Unless, I am able to identify where I am within a much larger TF thus making my entries from the H4 into the weekly scheme while maintaining a small(relatively) stoploss.


Explanation of outside envelopes(blue and red dotted lines):

These are from the Moving Average Dynamic Envelopes indicator, which describes a moving average and then plots envelopes multiples of the ATR away.

What I have done with them is used them as an extension of my trading strategy to show me when price is overbought/oversold(a very difficult thing to quantify). What I have done is to set up these envelopes to show me 1.5ATRs from the High and Low channel walls. What that tells me is "Look the High Price is 1.5 times the Average True Range Higher than the average High, it must be overbought". So I can exit my Trend following trades at this point and look for shorter counter trend trades.


That is it in a nutshell.

Another H4 candle has come and gone with no friendly signal for an entry. I should have held my Yen trade.

Shorted Usd/Jpy from M5. H4 overbought looking for a retrace.

I received your pm today, hope all is well. I am keeping tabs on your progress.

The UJ 4hour gave a big rejection for sure, the shorts should dip nicely, hope it goes straight down for you from here on that trade.

Admittedly my progress has been slower than I would like, but I have promised myself I won't give up. Good to see you around and kickin!

I don't like the whole idea of the Japanese overnight call rate being tentative. It's like they are waiting to see if the Yen strengthens any more tonight then lower the rate to bail themselves out. I don't see that helping them in the long run anyway, it's only a quick fix for the near future.

I took early stock of the H4 charts and didn't see any opportunities for entry.

My Usd/Jpy counter trend trade is still running. At the moment I am up 8 pips thinking it should go a little more but I will not push it too hard.

Immediately after posting something in the market let go and I was up 21pips and closed out the trade.

Reasons for closing: Running late in the Asian session(at least until the LO), counter trend trade, M5 in oversold territory. I think it may go a little further and I may have safely held onto that position until the 90.75ish area but I am unwilling to stay up any longer. I also have a sleep deprivation headache, and had it all day so its off to bed for me.

Very quickly this candle there are three trades taken.


Short

Usd/Cad
Trend following


Long

Aus/Usd
Trend Following

Eur/Jpy
Counter Trend

All three trades moved just far enough against me to knock me out. Reentered Usd/Cad Short on new H4 Signal.


Stop Losses hit

Usd/Cad -28pips
Aus/Usd -42pips
Eur/Jpy -40pips


Shorted
Usd/Cad

Two trades running.


Usd/Cad short +33pips
Aud/Usd long +26pips

Both are trend following trades and will hold them as long as I can.

Looks like I missed two entries(Longs on the Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Jpy) but that is okay as they are counter trend trades.

And here I was complaining about Japan!

So here is the story. I placed my trades knowing I would be away from my computer today and saw there were no scheduled high impact news events. I thought I was doing fine with my stoplosses moved a little closer and my trades were in green pips. Then I talk to a friend of mine that was on his computer and he says, "The Fed raised the interest rate unannounced!". You can imagine my state of mind as I was short the dollar on both positions. To make a short story even shorter I was knocked out of my trades for -6pips and -23pips. Not a horrible loss(Thank God for SLs) but yet another unprofitable day.

I am not really upset, but the backhanded deceitfulness of the Fed still surprises me sometimes.

Okay I'm all caught up. I will check again at the next candle open as there are no new entry setups. I see I missed the Euro, Swissy, and Cable setups earlier today. Those three trades would have offset my loss by more than a little, but responsibility first. Had to get my house ready for a showing tomorrow. Okay I really am off now, G'night all.

Entered this Eur/Jpy trade earlier this morning. I'm glad to see it is doing well. I'm up about 50pips right now. It is a counter trend(weekly) trade right now but I know my risk and know where my TP is so I feel quite safe.

Hey bro, I have taken the EJ 4 hour chart, and put together a quick thought of how I process price and trend.

I hope this adds a little to your trade arsenal, I like fibs to help locate areas of interest, especially on a larger time frame like 4 hour.

I prefer looking for recent movement, and pullback to test those breakout moves, and trading into the trend that was presented hours before.

You can do this on almost any time frame over 5 minute, but I also have been working on it with a 1 minute and smaller time frames for faster scalping pips.

Have a great weekend.

Interesting thought with the fibs. I have never been able to really use them to my advantage. I find I need concrete rules whenever I use one of the drawing tools, and there are few that have such rules and are willing to share them. I think we are on the same page(as long as you are proficient at identifying the trend PA is all you need to make an entry, I hope all can learn this lesson and increase the profitability of their trading no matter what they have on their chart).

My Eur/Jpy long is still in play

+118 pips at the moment.

Will be looking for more trade entries this week and areas to add to winning positions.

Awesome Job on the EJ, keep it up

I will be watching your setups this week, but I am only trading EU 90% and GJ 10%.

Too many new entries for me to safely place them all this new candle. Possibility for Short Gbpy/Jpy, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Usd, Aud/Usd. Possible Long Usd/Cad, Usd/Chf. I tried to take only the one's that looked the absolute best to me.

Eur/Jpy still running, hoping trend continues of Yen weakening against Euro
+77pips

Shorted

Eur/Usd(trend following careful on this one as weekly is far oversold)

Aud/Usd(trend following)