Another round of news figures coming out here in a few minutes, heads up everyone
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #13,661
- Feb 17, 2010 8:13am Feb 17, 2010 8:13am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #13,664
- Edited 11:11am Feb 17, 2010 10:03am | Edited 11:11am
Whew!
Was caught on the wrong side when E/U spiked up NY morning yesterday, I had 4 troops in (out of 50+). This is my third tsunami (demo), I thought I knew the drill - my drill is to cut attack troops immediately, then zoom in to scalp for foreign capital to airlift scout. But I failed to execute decisively
If I had cut all troops when tsunami hit I would have given back half of booked profit. Not doing so result in my being 6% down at NY close, I went to bed with Stop Profits orders hoping God would save me (scorpion
). No such luck, had to continue my clumsy rescues today, at the worse moment my DD was 12% equity, for a few minutes I had 44 troops in battle (broke all rules). London open saved me and I Attack/withdrew troops throughout the day, now squared with 2% plus to book. That was a 24 hour campaign
Lots of work ahead to drill for extemporaneous responses
Was caught on the wrong side when E/U spiked up NY morning yesterday, I had 4 troops in (out of 50+). This is my third tsunami (demo), I thought I knew the drill - my drill is to cut attack troops immediately, then zoom in to scalp for foreign capital to airlift scout. But I failed to execute decisively
If I had cut all troops when tsunami hit I would have given back half of booked profit. Not doing so result in my being 6% down at NY close, I went to bed with Stop Profits orders hoping God would save me (scorpion
). No such luck, had to continue my clumsy rescues today, at the worse moment my DD was 12% equity, for a few minutes I had 44 troops in battle (broke all rules). London open saved me and I Attack/withdrew troops throughout the day, now squared with 2% plus to book. That was a 24 hour campaignLots of work ahead to drill for extemporaneous responses
- #13,665
- Feb 17, 2010 12:06pm Feb 17, 2010 12:06pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,043 Posts
Whew!
Was caught on the wrong side when E/U spiked up NY morning yesterday, I had 4 troops in (out of 50+). This is my third tsunami (demo), I thought I knew the drill - my drill is to cut attack troops immediately, then zoom in to scalp for foreign capital to airlift scout. But I failed to execute decisively
If I had cut all troops when tsunami hit I would have given back half of booked profit. Not doing so result in my being 6% down at NY close, I went to bed with Stop Profits orders hoping God would save me (scorpion
- #13,666
- Feb 17, 2010 3:13pm Feb 17, 2010 3:13pm
Hi, I am curious, not only towards you, however I thought I might ask you since you are the more recent posters. With all the talk about skews and mindset (which are all good, don't be mistaken), what are your technical observations ? I belief with good technical study and skill, can save you a lot of heart ache and make better decisions. Of course, be wary about what fti taught about the fallacy of TA.
In hindsight, at the time E/U broke out yesterday:
- the “bottom” put in last Friday has held
- price has broken out and successfully retested the down trend line from the 9:15 High
- My short attacks all day, though profitable (0.7%), was like rolling a square log uphill, that should warn me the down move was reactive
- Prior to tsunami price coiled at the hourly mean, since congestion and volatility begat each other, my attack was like besieging wall city and waging river warfare.
Real time, I don’t know 
, I had 2 scouts out, one profit one loss, and there was half an hour to my favorite cookery program, so I thought I would put in a quick 2 troop attack to bring all troops home, ……, and Bam, tsunami hit
“I belief with good technical study and skill, can save you a lot of heart ache and make better decisions.”
Tell me more, I am all ears - now where can I find the all ear smily 
regards
- #13,667
- Feb 17, 2010 3:59pm Feb 17, 2010 3:59pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #13,668
- Feb 17, 2010 4:47pm Feb 17, 2010 4:47pm
waging river warfare.
Real time, I don’t know
“I belief with good technical study and skill, can save you a lot of heart ache and make better decisions.”
i stopped trading because i believe the "taf" way of trading is the only way to do it. i have no time/balls for it.. you went to bed with a TP stop and based a decision on a cooking program??? "
i also believe good technical study and can help" the skill (for me) is to feel/wait if the break of technical levels is shaking of the weak, or a real move and cut your loss/flip. it could take days or seconds for the market to show wich way it goes.
about your tp stop... you are on demo mode ..remember FTI was battleing 24 hours without sleep to rescue demo pips..... a real general and commander, he leads by example!!!
i hope you can follow baifu
one of the many reasons i am not trading atm. and maybe never is FTI's
t-shirt.
edit: i am laughing but it realy was a wake up call for me.trade well every one .... keep asking your self how am i doing as a general (TA) and commander (dance)... keep reading the art of war.
kind regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
- #13,669
- Edited 7:53pm Feb 17, 2010 7:06pm | Edited 7:53pm
HI Fana,
This is very good message, i have to confirm. It is question what to do, when i have only some $1500 to trade. Some time ago, i thought that the purpose, the need, was to earn more money to have bigger account.
Now i have different attitude. I try to dance well. The point is to do nice trades with good mindset always ready to do changes to improve ones doing. To have built some robust complexity in myself. Thats why the system and mindset have to be rightly adopted and not miss the right way. The skills can be developed only thus.
Now I have to learn from from you how to trade with small account. I feel very relax when trading with small lot no pressure at all(like sailing in very good weather condition) but with bigger lot-stress stress & stress (like driving high speed car racing).
What i do first was, that i realized i need TIME for my new carrier. A lot of time. I have a job 2days a week(with a lot of extra time with internet to study). And 5days only for trading. I dont care about anything else(except my gf(not gbp of course).
Actually bigger account is just for mental issue I'll only put in trading account only 2.5-5K. The rest keep in the bank to make me feel relax. So what I'm doing is saving while learning but not for long 4-5 months then I might work just like you 2days/week the rest trading & study.(may be I change my mind if my result is much more improving - well why not trade with small account save a lot with money it's much better isn't it?)
I wish I can do like you working 2 days/week but I have some responsibility so I can't. Anyway I might follow you soon....but a bit later
Cheers,.
This is very good message, i have to confirm. It is question what to do, when i have only some $1500 to trade. Some time ago, i thought that the purpose, the need, was to earn more money to have bigger account.
Now i have different attitude. I try to dance well. The point is to do nice trades with good mindset always ready to do changes to improve ones doing. To have built some robust complexity in myself. Thats why the system and mindset have to be rightly adopted and not miss the right way. The skills can be developed only thus.
Now I have to learn from from you how to trade with small account
. I feel very relax when trading with small lot no pressure at all(like sailing in very good weather condition) but with bigger lot-stress stress & stress (like driving high speed car racing).What i do first was, that i realized i need TIME for my new carrier. A lot of time. I have a job 2days a week(with a lot of extra time with internet to study). And 5days only for trading. I dont care about anything else(except my gf(not gbp
of course). Actually bigger account is just for mental issue I'll only put in trading account only 2.5-5K. The rest keep in the bank to make me feel relax. So what I'm doing is saving while learning but not for long 4-5 months then I might work just like you 2days/week the rest trading & study.(may be I change my mind if my result is much more improving - well why not trade with small account save a lot with money it's much better isn't it?)
I wish I can do like you working 2 days/week but I have some responsibility so I can't. Anyway I might follow you soon....but a bit later
Cheers,.
- #13,670
- Edited 8:36pm Feb 17, 2010 8:17pm | Edited 8:36pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts
- #13,672
- Feb 18, 2010 5:00am Feb 18, 2010 5:00am
hello baifu ,
i stopped trading because i believe the "taf" way of trading is the only way to do it. i have no time/balls for it.. you went to bed with a TP stop and based a decision on a cooking program??? "
i also believe good technical study and can help" the skill (for me) is to feel/wait if the break of technical levels is shaking of the weak, or a real move and cut your loss/flip. it could take days or seconds for the market to show wich way it goes.
about your tp stop... you are on demo mode ..remember FTI was battleing 24 hours...
“ …. ..remember FTI was battleing 24 hours without sleep to rescue demo pips..... a real general and commander, he leads by example!!!”
Hi Pax, you are absolutely right, I am painfully aware of my errs. I know of fti’s 24 hour battle to save demo pips (hey I have been reading this thread daily for the past 3 months). I cannot wage 24 hours campaigns so if it were real money I would cut when my clock time runs out, therefore I need to work out strategies to suit my clock time.
I believe it is important to take loss (not the same as using SL order), for me realized known loss (small in this case) is preferrable to unrealized unknown loss that can potentially snowball against me til heaven kingdom comes.
Even if you decide not to trade atm do hang around, I enjoy your conversation
regards,
baifu
- #13,673
- Feb 18, 2010 6:11am Feb 18, 2010 6:11am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 1,798 Posts
hello baifu ,
i stopped trading because i believe the "taf" way of trading is the only way to do it.
one of the many reasons i am not trading atm. and maybe never is FTI's
t-shirt.
kind regards, pax
may good fortune be with you and u find something u can live with and for
good luck
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
- #13,674
- Feb 18, 2010 12:47pm Feb 18, 2010 12:47pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #13,675
- Feb 18, 2010 4:33pm Feb 18, 2010 4:33pm
Swiss have been making it interesting today. Market will get scared, Owners starting to get involved. Trade extra nimble, to survive.
regards
Stay nimble, e/u outside reversal yesterday opened the door for fireworks.
regards
- #13,677
- Feb 18, 2010 4:54pm Feb 18, 2010 4:54pm
Swiss have been making it interesting today. Market will get scared, Owners starting to get involved. Trade extra nimble, to survive.
regards
i realy hope all active traders followed your "extra nimble" advice.
@baifu:
I cannot wage 24 hours campaigns so if it were real money I would cut when my clock time runs out, therefore I need to work out strategies to suit my clock time.
when working on your strategies remember this suprise move.... and remember that if you have a mental stop you can get slipped just like with a sl-order.
i'll hang around, curious about the people here, the music and to remind that FTI MO is not for everyone, tell me when i get too negative
all new here study hard and be honest to your self.
kind greets. pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
- #13,678
- Feb 18, 2010 5:00pm Feb 18, 2010 5:00pm
- Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Cartographer | 1,981 Posts
did something happened in last 30 min.......again 70 pip movement when NYC is closed i dont understand...
V
Ok...I am out and gone...happy trading to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
- #13,679
- Edited 6:21pm Feb 18, 2010 5:56pm | Edited 6:21pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts
- #13,680
- Feb 18, 2010 6:39pm Feb 18, 2010 6:39pm
after this USfed (owners) suprise/ discount rate hike...
i realy hope all active traders followed your "extra nimble" advice.
@baifu:
I cannot wage 24 hours campaigns so if it were real money I would cut when my clock time runs out, therefore I need to work out strategies to suit my clock time.
when working on your strategies remember this suprise move.... and remember that if you have a mental stop you can get slipped just like with a sl-order.
i'll hang around, curious about the people here,...
I hope you are doing fine. I guess you received my PM or email by now.
Good luck to you.
Cheers,