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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,641
  • Feb 16, 2010 6:27pm Feb 16, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting maheswara
the longer tfs (gbp) are blatantly saying up with those higher lows ,
lets if its the trend trap ...

we watched news that funds are all betting euro downfall...
it just concerns me that they are actually showing their hand ...
wat do u do , when u want to release ur positions at best possible price , u shout loudly that its going down , forcing market to go lower before cleaning out ...

hehe just my imagination ...
good trading to all
You were right, up from 3650 to3774(now) 120 pips.
Yesterday I short EU & GU micro account I got big mac meal $5.00.
I was lucky to quit early if not

Cheers,
  • #13,642
  • Feb 16, 2010 6:52pm Feb 16, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Happy new year to master Fti, Maheswara, Lusan, Auxesis, GEfx, Mamood, Setebos, jacson101, lilpip, hcong168, 1234, Fana, Baifu, acim, robertw, MyTbo and the rest in this thread.
Hope you all have good fortune & healthy life in this new year

Gong Xi Fat Choi,

PS I havn't got time to read last 4-5 pages I'll read them this afternoon. Thanks
happy new year to you too, pete.

staying nimble here.
market's timing is off, full d to e break?

regards,
  • #13,643
  • Edited 7:53pm Feb 16, 2010 7:34pm | Edited 7:53pm
[quote=Fana;3467913]
Quoting pete.alfa

hello Pete. We are on the same boat. It is good to know, that here are people who struggle also to learn. I hope you make a progress. (i know it you do). Now i am back at pages 25...50... repeating, analyzing......
Hi Fana, all guys & gals,
I'm improving a lot now I'm picking the right direction about 55% used to be 20%. So B4 most of the time rescue, rescue & rescue. Then I have to be good at rescue(by no choice). I'll share with you guys this weekend when I'm free(simple & effective 90% but ofcos still can't fight with big wave). I think fti and most seniors know how to do this.

After I listened the 'how to listen' video, I was thinking a lot about how to feel and touch the market rhythm into my mind,heart & soul.
I realise that my scout have to be in the market most of the time so I can feel & touch market rhythm not only by looking at the charts. I've read about scout have to be in the market more than ten times but I didn't get it until watched yesterday video. Thanks Fti your are a great teacher. you put clear example without saying.

Now come to the size of scout to my understand as Hcong posted few days ago.
4. Scout being small, can affort a bigger fluctuation in term of pips, thus able to ride a longer wave move, not just short impulsive thrust as attacks. In this sense scout is for "longer term trading",
to be able to become that you have to think you are snop rich person(I put as example), you don't eat big mac, your average meal in classy restaurant ( a meal will cost you $100 up) so you don't feel a pinch when you lose $100 -$200.
because average persons eat big mac or take away meal $5.00-$20 is our bread & butter if you lost that(inside our mind - you feel something).

Now to be able to come to that you need a big capital so you don't feel pressure while you're trading. Just like yesterday I traded micro lots I felt very relax(feel so good but ofcos not the same of having sex just kidding) and started to feel the market rhythm - no pressure at all.
So to feel relax, enjoy, feel & touch market rhythm I need a big Capital not big at least $10K so I can trade with $1-10/pip without stress at all.

I guess many newbies think the same as me making only $100 a day to start with (some might be more or less)

Sorry for long & winding post. I just feel like to express myself after I found out to feel & touch market rymthm yesterday I'm very happy at the moment- enjoying relaxing while trading. ofcos all the professional traders know that and yet some also they can enjoy trading with $2000 cap. Cos they are fully confident by knowing they are making for sure

Cheers, Hope you guy making heaps heaps of pips


Cheers,
  • #13,644
  • Edited 11:44pm Feb 16, 2010 8:22pm | Edited 11:44pm
although bias is down from 3785 - 3839 on weekly, trying to get feel for e/u

eyes watchin also
a/u 9000 area
g/u5765
  • #13,645
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:12pm Feb 16, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting maheswara
the longer tfs (gbp) are blatantly saying up with those higher lows ,
lets if its the trend trap ...

we watched news that funds are all betting euro downfall...
it just concerns me that they are actually showing their hand ...
wat do u do , when u want to release ur positions at best possible price , u shout loudly that its going down , forcing market to go lower before cleaning out ...

hehe just my imagination ...
good trading to all
You caught them, man!
Nice fireworks for Chinese New Year.
  • #13,646
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:23pm Feb 16, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting lilpip
although bias is down from 3785 on weekly,trying to get feel for e/u
eyes watchin also
a/u 9000 area
g/u5765
hi lilpip,
watch your behind.
market did daily punch reversal and it seems market is caught very short and liquidity thin too. I am not sure if 1.2358 will come. but for now dance her like your life depends on it.
Bias is bias, Reality is now. yeterdays are gone, tomorrow never comes.


regards
  • #13,647
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:24pm Feb 16, 2010 11:24pm
[quote=pete.alfa;3470436]
Quoting Fana

Hi Fana, all guys & gals,
I'm improving a lot now I'm picking the right direction about 55% used to be 20%. So B4 most of the time rescue, rescue & rescue. Then I have to be good at rescue(by no choice). I'll share with you guys this weekend when I'm free(simple & effective 90% but ofcos still can't fight with big wave). I think fti and most seniors know how to do this.

After I listened the 'how to listen' video, I was thinking a lot about how to feel and touch the market rhythm into my mind,heart & soul.
I realise that my...
Hi Pete and gang
This is very good message, i have to confirm. It is question what to do, when i have only some $1500 to trade. Some time ago, i thought that the purpose, the need, was to earn more money to have bigger account.
Now i have different attitude. I try to dance well. The point is to do nice trades with good mindset always ready to do changes to improve ones doing. To have built some robust complexity in myself. Thats why the system and mindset have to be rightly adopted and not miss the right way. The skills can be developed only thus.
What i do first was, that i realized i need TIME for my new carrier. A lot of time. I have a job 2days a week(with a lot of extra time with internet to study). And 5days only for trading. I dont care about anything else(except my gf(not gbp of course).
Skills, mindset and ... develop throw this time and i am more skilled, more balanced and i know, that one day it will be relatively "enough" to be independent as a trader.
So i try to controll my doing in my small research of "what i do, why, do i see mistakes, scorpions...?"
The very big question is "Who is your mentor?". We have one of the best in the world. The professional, who is kind to share his research. And also many other great traders.
There are things at the beginning of this thread, which are so important, but not everyone read it attentively. The most of newbies start to read but dont understand what it means and they continue like they have it. This is the terrible mistake, which judge them to be slaves of themselves.
What i now strongly try to solve is sigma and vega what fti talked about. It is an alpha-omega, with three kingdoms and phi spiral. These have to be in connection to work. It is not like you can use ftis research in free direction. You have to choose which timeframe and what you will be trading, but the background is very same. Why is charting rigid? What illusions and why should i trade? What the word NIMBLE is about? Why does fti give so much accent to it?
These are some of questions which hint....
regards
  • #13,648
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:31pm Feb 16, 2010 11:31pm
[quote=Fana;3470941]
Quoting pete.alfa

Hi Pete and gang
This is very good message, i have to confirm. It is question what to do, when i have only some $1500 to trade. Some time ago, i thought that the purpose, the need, was to earn more money to have bigger account.
Now i have different attitude. I try to dance well. The point is to do nice trades with good mindset always ready to do changes to improve ones doing. To have built some robust complexity in myself. Thats why the system and mindset have to be rightly adopted and not miss the right way. The...
Thanks Fana , for your kind words.
Just to nudge you in the right direction. Your study of sigma and vega, starts with a complete understanding and mastery of the Black Scholes model. It's working (what makes it tick) and it's impact in different volatility variances and scenarios.

regards.
  • #13,649
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:44pm Feb 16, 2010 11:44pm
[quote=fti;3470952]
Quoting Fana

Thanks Fana , for your kind words.
Just to nudge you in the right direction. Your study of sigma and vega, starts with a complete understanding and mastery of the Black Scholes model. It's working (what makes it tick) and it's impact in different volatility variances and scenarios.

regards.
Thank you fti. Refreshing... To master the connection between these elements is for me now crucial. I try to stick to your teaching as much as my humble abilities can.
Best regards
  • #13,650
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:45pm Feb 16, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting fti
hi lilpip,
watch your behind.
market did daily punch reversal and it seems market is caught very short and liquidity thin too. I am not sure if 1.2358 will come. but for now dance her like your life depends on it.
Bias is bias, Reality is now. yeterdays are gone, tomorrow never comes.


regards
thankyou for reminders and heads up.
  • #13,651
  • Feb 17, 2010 12:54am Feb 17, 2010 12:54am
Quoting Fana
Baifu, good post....
When in phi spiral, we can have three events.
1. Caught somewhere
2. Be with trend
3. Be against trend.

So how to solve these situations...
Every needs somethingelse.
1.Should be pre-phase of 2,(3), that is important, so staying in defense.
2.Is from where opportunities should be transfered in money.
3.Is about the controlling of risk. Because when we find, that we are against the trend, we can start with the new actions which belong to 2.

VaR is very crucial to be productive in 2. Because to catch the right tempo will produce...
Edit some bulls..t : we CANT BE CAUGHT, in the market
.. and when in phi spiral, its only processing.
  • #13,652
  • Feb 17, 2010 1:32am Feb 17, 2010 1:32am
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Possible diamond (hope I draw it correctly) forming on Euro (daily) ...... time will tell. According to Edwards/Magee they happen more often on tops, but seems like Euro is in some kind of congestion now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: diamond on daily.jpg Size: 53 KB
  • #13,653
  • Feb 17, 2010 2:08am Feb 17, 2010 2:08am
trade strategy for the rest of the week,
buy
oh u still have to dance around , take some at top , add some at bottom , etc...
keep it simple
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,654
  • Edited 5:21am Feb 17, 2010 5:11am | Edited 5:21am
Hello friends. Fti has written about human nature. That human has naturally destructive mind. And he writes also about Value of Risk. The correlation between these two phenomenons was a little unclear for me.
Let me think some thinks...

Why 95% of people is not succesfull? And as in many lectures and books, it is even in every human activity, that often 95% is not succesfull (polemic of course..)

Mostly because of their nature...

Connection to trading...
People want to win. They win and are happy that they win. But, when they dont win, they automatically blame themselves and systems, that they lose...
They know only Value of their potentionaly win, but they dont see negative of this.
Their brain doesnt emotionally know value of what is in their risk...
They cant see "Negation of negation.." (that Loss is Profit-they are together one thing)

"
They cant say: This loss of 8 pips is super, because it produces fortune when use correctly. This small loss is not a loss, but it is finally the cash. This is a dynamical control, and not only "wish"...

They already say: I cant have a loss, i will wait when this will be winner... So he is actually setting his own voluntary failure...I wish... I see, I hope...

So the point is imho to reverse this natural phenomenon in head....to negate nature tending...

So in conclusion i can tell to my brain to seek for the high valued risk...
  • #13,655
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:34am Feb 17, 2010 6:34am
Quoting Fana
Hello friends. Fti has written about human nature. That human has naturally destructive mind. And he writes also about Value of Risk. The correlation between these two phenomenons was a little unclear for me.
Let me think some thinks...

Why 95% of people is not succesfull? And as in many lectures and books, it is even in every human activity, that often 95% is not succesfull (polemic of course..)

Mostly because of their nature...

Connection to trading...
People want to win. They win and are happy that they win. But, when they dont win,...
Hey Fana,

your brain seems to work like on steroids at the moment. From my point of view you are making good progress in developing the right attitude and mindset for trading.

Keep on with your research.
Keep on pondering about all the words of wisdom fti has given to us.

Congrats to your way of learning!
Really cool!

MaMood
  • #13,656
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:39am Feb 17, 2010 6:39am
Quoting Fana

Why 95% of people is not succesfull? And as in many lectures and books, it is even in every human activity, that often 95% is not succesfull (polemic of course..)

Mostly because of their nature...

...
Fana,

The reason why 95% of people referring to themselves as traders fail is because they are morons looking for the holy grail in forums, TV or seminars. FF is a very good example of that - 95% of the trading related threads and comments are rubbish written by such people. They spend most of their time in front of the TV, writing posts/comments or listening to someone else's ideas instead of sitting on their bottom and doing their homework. And that homework is a no-brainer - find out what works for you or fail trying to COPY-PASTE what works for someone else.

One of my personal favorite phrases that fti uses in the early (and imho best) part of the thread is "there is no rule written in stone". Fana, there are a huge number of theories and models for risk management, price movement structure and market models - I've had the doubtful privilege to have studied most of them and I assure you that none of them will give you the key. Maybe point you the door but never give you the key to open it. It is the chart screen time (borrowed from mahes) that makes the difference.

I hope this rings a bell. Just my 0,002.
  • #13,657
  • Feb 17, 2010 6:50am Feb 17, 2010 6:50am
@ Fana again. In addition to my posting above:

Please try to focus on the main essential topics in the first run.
I guess Signma, Vega and Black Scholes model is not essentially needed to become a good dancers respectively a successful retail FX trader.

That stuff is a little complex and will distract you from the basics at this stage of your learning curve.

CU,
MaMood
  • #13,658
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:10am Feb 17, 2010 7:10am
Quoting Fana
Hello friends. Fti has written about human nature. That human has naturally destructive mind. And he writes also about Value of Risk. The correlation between these two phenomenons was a little unclear for me.
Let me think some thinks...

Why 95% of people is not succesfull? And as in many lectures and books, it is even in every human activity, that often 95% is not succesfull (polemic of course..)

Mostly because of their nature...

Connection to trading...
People want to win. They win and are happy that they win. But, when they dont win, they...
Fana,

Imho, people want to be right, yes. As traders, to enter a trade, there has to be some reason why you would put at risk your hard earned money. Long or short, enter here or there, our brains have come to some conclusion that this is the "right" time and direction.

The market gives clues, Highs, lows, patterns ect... as it moves along, we see those clues and as a result we interpret them which gives us the decision to enter.

From that point on, right or wrong, most traders will see the following clues the market gives as either confirmation that their decision was correct, or they will hold on to their bias in anticipation that the next clue the market will give will prove them right, now falling into hope.

No system of money management will be able to over compensate for this mental flaw. As the decision making is fundamentally wrong.

regards,
  • #13,659
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:16am Feb 17, 2010 7:16am
Quoting MaMood
@ Fana again. In addition to my posting above:

Please try to focus on the main essential topics in the first run.
I guess Signma, Vega and Black Scholes model is not essentially needed to become a good dancers respectively a successful retail FX trader.

That stuff is a little complex and will distract you from the basics at this stage of your learning curve.

CU,
MaMood

Thank you MaMood. Yes, i maybe want to have it too fast and really in this proccess i should not give so much accent at "only" some parts... It may decrease my abilities when trading... So i repeat to myself: "keep it strong and simple".
  • #13,660
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:19am Feb 17, 2010 7:19am
Setebos, Auxesis,
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