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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,961
  • Feb 15, 2010 3:06pm Feb 15, 2010 3:06pm
We may not have the resources of major investment banks. We do have our own brains. Thanks Olu
  • #2,962
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:13pm Feb 15, 2010 10:13pm
Price on the USD/CAD has been trading lower for about a week now. Price is currently inside the Daily Upswing levels. Will be looking for price to impact 1.0411 area and find possible buyers @ support as well as the .618 from the Daily Upswing fib. Will watch price closely at that level for a possible entry if I see confirmation that there are buyers.
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  • #2,963
  • Feb 16, 2010 1:19am Feb 16, 2010 1:19am
Quoting uncle gromit
Just thought I'd post my offering.
Looking to sell into area marked (previous weekly lows)
Old broken support should become new resistance.
So far so good. Stop lowered.
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #2,964
  • Feb 16, 2010 2:15am Feb 16, 2010 2:15am
The RSI is weak so I expect it to break lower sooner or later- am short at these levels-----
  • #2,965
  • Edited 1:16pm Feb 16, 2010 7:30am | Edited 1:16pm
I know I am going to honor my stops. It is beginning to look as if the only way to have a solid currency in the US of A is to wait for the inevitable overthrow of Washington that is coming in November by the American people. And if that fails maybe the second coming of Christ.
  • #2,966
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:57am Feb 16, 2010 8:57am
Price has now come down and impacted Support @ 1.0411. This is the level I wanted to see the market test. Will be looking for possible long entries if price shows me orders are being filled and begins to push up some. Will continue to monitor the market throughout the rest of the afternoon.
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  • #2,967
  • Feb 16, 2010 9:06am Feb 16, 2010 9:06am
Quoting garry0667
Hey duce,

What platform do you use? Is it MT4 or something else
MT4.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #2,968
  • Edited 3:15pm Feb 16, 2010 10:00am | Edited 3:15pm
Sold the Euro/Cad again. Thought is that the Fed must have flooded the market with liquidity fearing a breakdown in the Euro. This big spike in Gold if it backs off would confirm that. really do not like doing this going into Asia but the Euro's fundies has not really changed. Price looks attractive.
dollar index is at a support level.

Just a followup, if the thinking is right, now the Fed is covering the credit default swaps of Goldmans for Greece and probably others in Europe. So the US taxpayer is now going to stabilize the Euro. That would imply the Euro is hanging by a very thin thread.

And on a lite note since there are not too many jokes in currency trading. Maybe the Drachma will reappear and be pegged to the USD
  • #2,969
  • Feb 16, 2010 10:56am Feb 16, 2010 10:56am
Quoting uncle gromit
So far so good. Stop lowered.
Target reached.
Now square.
1.0412 the key to more downside.
1.0531/44 above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #2,970
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:07pm Feb 16, 2010 11:07pm
Price on the USD/CAD has impacted support @ 1.0411 and started to show some buying pressure. Will be looking for price to push a little further up for confirmation for my long entry. Will continue to watch price closely.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-4h.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #2,971
  • Edited 2:05am Feb 17, 2010 1:26am | Edited 2:05am
good morning all,
really great posts. The Fed must be getting the desired result from a fire hose full of liquidity aimed at Europe. Equities are strong. Since it is impossible to know just how much damage lurks in Soverign debt a failure of the USD at 79.00 level would indicate that all is not clear.
Longer term the Fed has to deal with excess liquidity but Bernanke will not hold a line with monetary policy.
If that level is breached I will stand aside for some time until another major bottom comes thru on the charts.

Liquid good luck with your trade if you went long. Lots of guts to enter such an uncertain environment.

one more thought. Japan does well when the US does well. Keeping that in mind Japan seems willing to pick up some of the slack from China.
  • #2,972
  • Feb 17, 2010 3:06am Feb 17, 2010 3:06am
Quoting foto
good morning all,
really great posts. The Fed must be getting the desired result from a fire hose full of liquidity aimed at Europe. Equities are strong. Since it is impossible to know just how much damage lurks in Soverign debt a failure of the USD at 79.00 level would indicate that all is not clear.
Longer term the Fed has to deal with excess liquidity but Bernanke will not hold a line with monetary policy.
If that level is breached I will stand aside for some time until another major bottom comes thru on the charts.

Liquid good luck with your...
Have not gone long yet.
  • #2,973
  • Feb 17, 2010 4:55am Feb 17, 2010 4:55am
We can only hope that Bernanke and co. will realize some day that socializing the damage of thieves and fools is destructive by its' very nature. The end result of monetizing these costs by raising the cost of living onto the shoulders of those already struggling, heaps insult upon injury.
It may also snuf out the life of any incipent recovery. Thus reinforcing the deflationary spiral.
  • #2,974
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:24am Feb 17, 2010 8:24am
Currently Long on USD/CAD @ 1.0462. Price has started to push up again after going back down to 1.0411 and testing that level of support again. I would like to see yesterdays Daily Candle High broken, for further confirmation for up movement.
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  • #2,975
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:34am Feb 17, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Liquid
Currently Long on USD/CAD @ 1.0462. Price has started to push up again after going back down to 1.0411 and testing that level of support again. I would like to see yesterdays Daily Candle High broken, for further confirmation for up movement.
I took the long yesterday and the double bottom created today adds strength to it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=36
  • #2,976
  • Feb 17, 2010 8:47am Feb 17, 2010 8:47am
Quoting jack.canadia
I took the long yesterday and the double bottom created today adds strength to it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=36
Nice, we are trading the same level of support. I just like to see confirmation of order flow before I enter.
  • #2,977
  • Edited 1:09pm Feb 17, 2010 12:52pm | Edited 1:09pm
I have remained long this pair for quite some time and it was quite a rollercoaster. Got a bit close yesterday, but this looks like some stability in the pair has returned. Had no way to anticipate the Euro and the way the Fed responded. As has been told to me about the market "the wildness lies in wait".

Currently there is a lot of support for the Euro at the 1:36 level as if some entity is holding it from going lower. So the Euro selling pressure gets applied to the Euro/Cad instead, which then brings pressure downards against the Usd/Cad. I believe the market selling forces are much like water and they find their own level. Something like a balancing act between all the pairs. Just a personal interpretation.
  • #2,978
  • Feb 17, 2010 11:52pm Feb 17, 2010 11:52pm
Still currently Long on USD/CAD @ 1.0462. Price has pushed up a little and I am up around 30 pips. Will continue to monitor price and look for opportunities to reduce my initial risk on the investment. I will also be looking to see how the market reacts to resistance @ 1.0544. Market Sentiment on the Daily TF is still Bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,979
  • Feb 18, 2010 6:50am Feb 18, 2010 6:50am
This current market will be a good test of those longer term players. If USD buying steps up and treats this as a correction to build position then the bull remains strong.
Hard to accept that the Euro is safe haven so if this turns into a rejection candle then more upside for the USD is coming.
  • #2,980
  • Feb 18, 2010 8:51am Feb 18, 2010 8:51am
I felt I was getting a little greedy (looking for 1.0411) so I TPed and went long at 1.0434. SL will be a couple hundred pips. Let's see what happens.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
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