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Chart patterns and trendline discussion....

  • #101
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:04am Feb 15, 2010 10:04am
Quoting mf036ml

Since I will be concentrating on recurring patterns I will not be so concerned about which pairs I trade but more so on the time frames.

I myself will concentrating strictly on the four hour and daily charts.

but please feel free on any input or your own particular trades so long as they are based on sup/res. areas or recurring and interpretation of chart patterns...
I have traded trend lines for a long time and here's what I'd like to share.
The main point of my method is that you should determine a trend first.
It's hardly to trust trend lines as sup/res levels when you don't see a trend.
It's a safiest way of using trend lines - to analyse a trend, so you can make a very profitable trade.
Once you have found a trend, you should sertainly trade in the direction of the trend. Wait till price
crossed the trendline (consider here as sup/res level) and when buy on close. Set SL on opposite side of the line.
Take profit is before the next sup/res level.
  • #102
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:10am Feb 15, 2010 10:10am
Quoting agiletrader
I have traded trend lines for a long time and here's what I'd like to share.
The main point of my method is that you should determine a trend first.
It's hardly to trust trend lines as sup/res levels when you don't see a trend.
It's a safiest way of using trend lines - to analyse a trend, so you can make a very profitable trade.
Once you have found a trend, you should sertainly trade in the direction of the trend. Wait till price
crossed the trendline (consider here as sup/res level) and when buy on close. Set SL on opposite side of the line.
Take...
Agiletrader,

welcome and thank you so much for your advise...just to see if am understanding correctly...

in this particular case with the main trend being down...you would not risk going against the trend and wait for safer set ups with the trend?

Once again, thank you for your input and hope to see a lot more on here...finally, its good to have a few more people involved and getting different takes and views based on different styles and experience levels...
  • #103
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:41am Feb 15, 2010 10:41am
Here's what I see for what it is worth....
15 is in a fallinng wedge, price is below 122.45 area (support lost) and is going to retest this area from all appearances. Let's say for sake of discussion that support of 122.45 is regained. Above that is 122.80 are a proven resistance zone in what ahs determined to be am established downtrend.Should thewedge break I believe it could pop to 122.80 maybe even 122.95 (an even stronger resistance area), but most likely fail imo, as pressure is to the down side.

Having said all of that, My plan would be to either place my short at 122.45 area or wait for the potential pop to be short at the 122.80 or 122.95 areas. Let the market tell you what is going to do, guessing is gambling. Hope this helps. Respectfully


RONIN
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  • #104
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:59am Feb 15, 2010 10:59am
Quoting Ronin2002
Here's what I see for what it is worth....
15 is in a fallinng wedge, price is below 122.45 area (support lost) and is going to retest this area from all appearances. Let's say for sake of discussion that support of 122.45 is regained. Above that is 122.80 are a proven resistance zone in what ahs determined to be am established downtrend.Should thewedge break I believe it could pop to 122.80 maybe even 122.95 (an even stronger resistance area), but most likely fail imo, as pressure is to the down side.

Having said all of that, My plan would...
Hello guys,

Ronin i think you are wrong...

To many reasons for long > Industry in japan is litle higher and other countries will help that more soon.I wish you many pips but think you are wrong for selling yen but time will tell...

Cheers i am long from friday
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #105
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:03am Feb 15, 2010 11:03am
Quoting Ronin2002
Here's what I see for what it is worth....
15 is in a fallinng wedge, price is below 122.45 area (support lost) and is going to retest this area from all appearances. Let's say for sake of discussion that support of 122.45 is regained. Above that is 122.80 are a proven resistance zone in what ahs determined to be am established downtrend.Should thewedge break I believe it could pop to 122.80 maybe even 122.95 (an even stronger resistance area), but most likely fail imo, as pressure is to the down side.

Having said all of that, My plan would be...
Ronin2002,

As always thank you so much and your opinion is actually worth more than you can expect to me...

In the beggining of this thread I mentioned that this was very subjective and someone mentioned that it was a very personal thing.

I totally agree...This is great, this is just what i wanted. while there is know way I will be able to copy anyones particular style since we all view things a bit different...

My eyes are being opened to things i use to miss all the time in the past...and am taking away a little bit from every piece of advise you guys with more experience put up here....with time maybe I will be able to develop my own style with all the pieces of what i've taken away from here...

so please, its always a pleasure to hear yours and all other traders views and advise..

so keep em coming and thanks to all you guys...
  • #106
  • Feb 15, 2010 11:06am Feb 15, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello guys,

Ronin i think you are wrong...

To many reasons for long > Industry in japan is litle higher and other countries will help that more soon.I wish you many pips but think you are wrong for selling yen but time will tell...

Cheers i am long from friday


Hello Petar,

Its good to see you again...and I really hope your right...Cause i took that long based on the break of that line from the previous chart i posted...and am not feeling so confident right now...

anyhow, good to hear from you again...dont be a stranger..
  • #107
  • Edited 12:22pm Feb 15, 2010 11:11am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello guys,

Ronin i think you are wrong...

To many reasons for long > Industry in japan is litle higher and other countries will help that more soon.I wish you many pips but think you are wrong for selling yen but time will tell...

Cheers i am long from friday
Petar, thanks for the input and I respect your insights. Admittedly I don't pay fundamentals much mind, something contrary to most in FF. I'm a technical kind of guy, for better or worse. I noticed you posted a 4hr chart, the question was posed on a 15min and so my hypothesis was based accordingly. I'm ok with being wrong, it happens. Since you are long at the moment, then I hope I am. I am here to learn as well, so please, keep your insights coming.
  • #108
  • Edited 1:46pm Feb 15, 2010 1:43pm | Edited 1:46pm
Wow I am definitely asleep at the wheel here.
Petar you wrote: "Ronin i think you are wrong...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif

To many reasons for long > Industry in japan is litle higher and other countries will help that more soon.I wish you many pips but think you are wrong for selling yen but time will tell... http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif

Cheers i am long from friday http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif"

My post doesn't suggest selling yen, in fact it would suggest the opposite: "Here's what I see for what it is worth....
15 is in a falling wedge, price is below 122.45 area (support lost) and is going to retest this area from all appearances. Let's say for sake of discussion that support of 122.45 is regained. Above that is 122.80 are a proven resistance zone in what ahs determined to be am established downtrend.Should the wedge break I believe it could pop to 122.80 maybe even 122.95 (an even stronger resistance area), but most likely fail imo, as pressure is to the down side.

Having said all of that, My plan would be to either place my short at 122.45 area or wait for the potential pop to be short at the 122.80 or 122.95 areas. Let the market tell you what is going to do, guessing is gambling. Hope this helps. Respectfully"

As this is the EURJPY pair, to be long is to buy the Euro and sell the Yen. I am not nit picking, just didn't want anyone to be confused.

Respectfully

RONIN
  • #109
  • Feb 15, 2010 4:24pm Feb 15, 2010 4:24pm
So does the presidents day holiday affect mainly the U.S. session ?

Can one expect a little more movement in the upcoming asian and euro session...

I fell asleep and woke up to this totally going sideways on me and very little movement...
  • #110
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:27pm Feb 15, 2010 7:27pm
closed half of my position at 122.59 and moved sl to break even....feel much more comfortable now...
  • #111
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:42pm Feb 15, 2010 7:42pm
Nice job dood!
  • #112
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:52pm Feb 15, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting Ronin2002
Nice job dood!

Thank you Ronin,

I know I have to give time for these trades to develop ...but i had the postition open for longer than I felt comfortable with and did not want to risk it being a loss....


This is all new to me and my confident level is not the best...definetly need to work on that and hopefully that will come with time and practice..

thanks again,

Looking at 122.80 to close the next half perhaps if it happens while am up..if not i'll just set my tp to that level and sleep easy..
  • #113
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:55pm Feb 15, 2010 7:55pm
good morning all,
nice to meet you again,
i got this on my work. wait for any comments.
my projection is, wait for a moment to confirm it's break. then when price go down for a small rail, around 122.45, buy.
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  • #114
  • Feb 15, 2010 7:56pm Feb 15, 2010 7:56pm
You can never be wrong taking money off the table. As the saying goes "no one ever went broke taking a profit"
  • #115
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:05pm Feb 15, 2010 8:05pm
forget something to tell, post again. very sorry..
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  • #116
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:06pm Feb 15, 2010 8:06pm
Ok guys,


heres another set up am hoping to take if it plays out...as always its open for critic and different points of view...so looking forward to it...

this would be taken on the 4hr time frame....first chart is the daily in which am seeing a bearish flag...now am going to take it on the 4hr..but that red line would be my sl and the what am shooting for...

next chart is 4 hrs..if it breaks and closes below while am up..(short)..

Looking forward to comments...
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  • #117
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:08pm Feb 15, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting morethanezra
forget something to tell, post again. very sorry..

Looks good morethanezra....good luck to you...am also long on eur/jpy...

Hopefully this time works out good for us both..
  • #118
  • Feb 15, 2010 8:41pm Feb 15, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting mf036ml
closed half of my position at 122.59 and moved sl to break even....feel much more comfortable now...
2nd part of my position just hit its sl at break even...
  • #119
  • Feb 15, 2010 9:00pm Feb 15, 2010 9:00pm
mf036ml, thank you.
yesterday you were right. i got to close my position, even small, in negative position. congratulation mf036ml.
  • #120
  • Feb 15, 2010 9:19pm Feb 15, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting morethanezra
mf036ml, thank you.
yesterday you were right. i got to close my position, even small, in negative position. congratulation mf036ml.
Thank you morethanezra...atleast you were able to cut your loss and keep that small....

am still a little intimidated by these 15min. time frames but I do enjoy comparing and learing from one another both with you and ronin...so whenever I have the time to watch this time frame and trade off it..

I'll continue to post so we could compare results...and analysis....still intimidate me though...

good luck to you tonight...hope you make up for that loss and then some...

am hoping to take that short one usd/jpy on the longer time frame and call it a night...

and then tomorrow night take a look at the eur/jpy again on the smaller time frame and looking forward to posting whatever I see and comparing with you guys again..
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