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Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #461
  • Feb 12, 2010 3:13am Feb 12, 2010 3:13am
Time of Posting – Fri. Feb. 12, 2010. 09:13 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe price is still trapped within the downward or bearish channel, which we started observing since the early weeks of this year, 2010. Currently, in an overall bearish trend, the bulls are attempting to break decisively above the channel. Supporting the possibility of the bulls escaping the channel is the recent price-break above the previous day’s high @ 90.13 (not highlighted). However, it’s rather too early to conclude the bulls have finally broken through as the resistance pressure around the upper edge of the bearish channel might eventually subdue them before the close of today’s (also this week’s) trading hours.
From a day-trade perspective, our bias is bullish, but, based on the analysis above, more conservative traders might prefer to stay off this pair till next week. Less conservative traders might still be able to rely on the H4 price action to make their decisions on whether to seek Long trade setups on the Hourly charts or not.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high – also yesterday’s high @ 90.13 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, on the H4 chart, we could also observe more clearly price action around the bearish channel discussed on the Daily chart. Price, at the moment, is probably within a resistance-area, hence, there’s the need to be cautious. Again, while less aggressive traders might have to wait till next week to trade this currency pair, more aggressive traders might only wait for a clear H4 candle-close above the resistance confluence of the 90.13 level and the upper edge of the bearish channel.
The green horizontal line @ 89.56 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in case we have a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #462
  • Feb 15, 2010 5:37am Feb 15, 2010 5:37am
Time of Posting – Mon. Feb. 15, 2010. 11:37 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we could observe the GBPUSD pair settled into range trading throughout last week. Price hit the lower edge of the downward or bearish channel only to get stalled as the bulls were unable to garner enough momentum to send price back toward the upper edge of the channel. Currently, price is stuck between the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5763 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – on the upper side – and a support confluence of the channel’s lower edge and the year-low @ 1.5533 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) – on the lower side.
Consequently, while our day-trade bias leans toward the bulls, we need a clear break above the 1.5763 level to be convinced of the bulls’ resolve to push price northward.
Also, today is a Bank Holiday in the US, so let’s keep in mind the possibility of thin volume in U.S. trade.

On the H4 chart (attached), price is yet to break the most recent swing high @ 1.5707 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That buttresses our view that traders are currently indecisive on whether to react to the critical support confluence discussed on the Daily chart and push price northward or succumb to the lingering bearish pressure and continue southward. In all, as also mentioned on the Daily chart, our day-trade bias reluctantly favors the bulls; but we need further confirmation to be more convinced of the bullish retracement.
The green horizontal line @ 1.5579 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, in case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows.
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  • #463
  • Edited 7:11am Feb 16, 2010 5:41am | Edited 7:11am
Time of Posting – Tue. Feb. 16, 2010. 11:40 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe traders have been struggling to make a decisive move on the USDJPY pair since late last week when price hit the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel. By the end of yesterday, we had a sign suggesting the channel’s upper edge, as a resistance area, would probably aid the bears to resume their southward journey: yesterday’s candle closed within Friday’s candle – forming a reversal candle pattern (an “inside candle”) in the process, and, as earlier said, that gave us an indication that the bears might resume their activities. In addition, today’s price action has seen the break of yesterday’s low @ 89.90 (not highlighted).
From a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bears. Although, the market is relatively sluggish at the moment, the coast seems relatively clear for us to seek Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low – also yesterday’s low @ 89.90 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. We could observe, more clearly, price reaction at the upper edge of the bearish channel, which we discussed on the Daily chart: it suggests the resistance-strength the bulls are contending with around the area.
Also, we could observe the lull-mode the pair has been since yesterday. There’s the possibility of a big break toward either side, but, as earlier said, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is in favor of the bears.
The white horizontal line @ 90.09 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #464
  • Feb 17, 2010 7:07am Feb 17, 2010 7:07am
Time of Posting – Wed. Feb. 17, 2010. 13:06 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), given the time of this posting, it’s not unexpected that traders have already made some decisive moves regarding the direction in which price would go; however, we should still expect more decisions to be made before today’s trading hours close. On the USDJPY, we would observe the bulls are resolved to hold on to their reign despite the pro-bears signals we identified yesterday. Earlier price action today saw price moving decisively above the upper edge of the downward or bearish channel – breaking in the process the previous day’s high @ 90.50 (not highlighted). That suggested to us the bulls now have enough drive to push further northward, at least toward the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.26 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line).

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 90.50 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That again shifts our bias in favor of an upward price move. We could observe the critical resistance level @ 91.26 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart. Please let’s keep the level in mind.
The green horizontal line @ 89.70 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #465
  • Feb 18, 2010 12:41am Feb 18, 2010 12:41am
Time of Posting – Thur. Feb. 18, 2010. 06:42 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), as expected yesterday, price continued moving upward to pause around the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.26 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). If the 91.26 level happens to be a strong resistance area, we might see the bears forcing price to resume its longer term bearish trend. From a day-trade perspective however, our bias remains in support of the bulls – until we have enough reasons to change our view.
For now, all we know is: as a result of yesterday’s price activity, the previous day’s candle closed as a very strong bullish candle – breaching the 91.26 resistance level in the process. That suggested to us that the bulls probably have enough momentum to push price further upward. However, since price is yet to break decisively above the 91.26 level, to be convinced of a continued bullish move today, we would prefer to see price-break above the previous day’s high @ 91.36 (not highlighted) before seeking our Hourly long trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), yesterday, price broke the most recent swing high @ 90.50 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. Again, as with yesterday, we could observe price reaction to the critical resistance level @ 91.26 (that we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart. Currently, we are seeing signs of a possible bearish move, which might end up becoming a major move – considering the longer term bearish scenario on higher time frame charts. Please let’s keep the level in mind.
The green horizontal line @ 90.14 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #466
  • Feb 19, 2010 3:44am Feb 19, 2010 3:44am
Time of Posting – Fri. Feb. 19, 2010. 09:44 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, the bulls continued their activity in a very determined manner: after the break of Wednesday’s high @ 91.36 (not highlighted), which resulted in a clear break above the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.26 (that we've highlighted using the blue broken line), as anticipated, price continued its upward movement. Also, early market action today has seen price break above the previous day’s high @ 92.03 (also not highlighted). Consequently, from a day-trade perspective, our bias remains bullish. The next important resistance area we should be monitoring is the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle.
Today, the coast seems relatively clear enough for us to seek Hourly Long trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent Daily swing high @ 91.36 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move.
The green horizontal line @ 90.55 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #467
  • Feb 22, 2010 3:14am Feb 22, 2010 3:14am
Time of Posting – Mon. Feb. 22, 2010. 09:14 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe that on Friday, last week, price hit the upper edge of the upward or bullish channel, and on the same day, it reversed sharply to close as a strong bear-bodied candle. That was a convincing sign that the bulls weren’t prepared to disregard the upper boundary of the bullish channel just yet. Further supporting the possibility of a bearish move toward the lower part of the bullish channel is earlier price action today, which resulted in the break of the previous trading day’s low – Friday’s low @ 1.0747 (not highlighted). Consequently, from a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bears.
However, considering price’s proximity to the lower edge of the bullish channel (currently about 50pips away), there’s the need for us to be cautious as we seek Short trade opportunities – especially when we also consider that the USD/CHF currency pair is currently within a medium term bullish trend.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has breached the most recent swing low @ 1.0746 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, we could notice price is yet to break decisively below the 1.0746 support level, and the last fully formed H4 candle completed the formation of a quasi-reversal candle pattern around the same support level. Hence, we have a sign suggesting a possible bullish retracement.
In all, while our day-trade bias supports the bears, we should be conscious of the contradictory signals.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0897 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, in case of a clearer coast, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #468
  • Edited 5:22am Feb 23, 2010 4:44am | Edited 5:22am
Time of Posting – Tue. Feb. 23, 2010. 10:44 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), in line with what we discussed yesterday, earlier today, price moved further downward toward the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel – breaking the previous day’s low @ 1.0738 (not highlighted) in the process. At the moment, the channel’s lower edge is doing a good job of providing strong support as the bears seem unable to break below it. From a day-trade perspective, our bias is still reluctantly in favor of the bears, but current price actions are telling to be wary of seeking Short trade setups until the coast is clear. Consequently, it’s advisable for us to exercise patience on this currency pair – probably throughout today.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has breached the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 1.0738 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, we could notice the proximity of price to the lower edge of the bullish channel, which we discussed on the Daily chart, and how it’s reacting to the lower edge. It’s quite obvious the bears aren’t having a field day. Again, as advised on the Daily chart, it’s better to abstain from trading this pair until the coast is clear.
In all, technically speaking, our day-trade bias still supports the bears – albeit reluctantly.
The white horizontal line @ 1.0787 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
Attached Images
  • #469
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:25am Feb 24, 2010 3:25am
Time of Posting – Wed. Feb. 24, 2010. 09:25 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel eventually proved an insurmountable hurdle for the bears as the initial price-rally was sustained. Consequently, our trading bias, from a day-trade perspective, has again shifted to favor the bulls. However, for us to be convinced of the bulls’ readiness to push price further today, we would like to see the break above the previous day’s high @ 1.0847 (not highlighted).
In case price breaks above the 1.0847 level, we should expect further unhindered bullish action toward the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0897 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line).

On the H4 chart (attached), price broke, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.0787 (which we've highlighted using the lower blue broken line) upward. That shifted our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, in line with what was discussed on the Daily chart, the most recent swing high – also the previous day’s high @ 1.0847 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) is a crucial resistance level we would like to see broken for us to be more confident of the bulls’ resolve to sustain their activity.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0713 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #470
  • Edited 2:32am Feb 25, 2010 2:22am | Edited 2:32am
Time of Posting – Thur. Feb. 25, 2010. 08:21 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, we anticipated a continued bullish move, but, virtually throughout the earlier trading hours, the bears caused an upset as price swooned. Although our bias, yesterday, from a day-trade perspective was bullish, traders following the analyses on this thread were probably shielded from the sudden price collapse since price didn’t break above the Tuesday’s high (which, yesterday, was a previous day’s high) @ 1.0847.
Toward the close of yesterday’s trading hours, the bulls regained their momentum – forcing the bears to give up most of their sudden gains. In continuation of the bulls’ resurgence, early price action today has seen the break of both Tuesday’s high and yesterday’s high @ 1.0847 and 1.0841, respectively. Consequently, our bullish bias remains, with the critical resistance level – the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.0897 (which we've highlighted using the upper blue broken line) – still in focus.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.0847 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. Again, while seeking Long trade setups on the Hourly chart, let’s keep in mind the 1.0897 resistance level, which we discussed on the Daily chart.
The green horizontal line @ 1.0737 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels – to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #471
  • Feb 25, 2010 7:24am Feb 25, 2010 7:24am
Hello Tunji.....Nice to see your thread's still alive and doing well....

How are the pips doing..
God's Love For You Is Sure Never You Doubt It
  • #472
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:04am Feb 26, 2010 1:04am
Time of Posting – Fri. Feb. 26, 2010. 07:04 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), for the past one week, price has been trending southward – in agreement with the longer term down trend. Yesterday, price decisively broke below the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle as the trading day ended with a strong bear-bodied candle. As a result, that strengthened the notion that the longer term bearish trend has probably resumed. From a day-trade perspective, our bearish bias remains intact.
However, there are two critical support levels that we expect price to break below for us to be more confident that the overall bearish trend has resumed: the first is the usual previous day’s low, which, in the case of this currency pair today, is @ 88.79 (not highlighted), and the most recent Daily swing low @ 88.58 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). For more conservative traders, it’s advisable to avoid seeking Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart – till the coast is clear.

On the H4 chart (attached), price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 89.91 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. As discussed on the Daily chart, to be convinced of the bears’ readiness to continue their activity, especially for more conservative traders, it’s preferable to see price break below the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 88.79 (which we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line).
The white horizontal line @ 90.35 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY - Daily 260210.gif Size: 22 KB
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  • #473
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:25pm Feb 27, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting D liberators
Hello Tunji.....Nice to see your thread's still alive and doing well....

How are the pips doing..
Thanks D liberators, quite a while. Regarding the pips, they haven’t been unruly Have a restful weekend and I wish us all a fulfilling March.
  • #474
  • Mar 2, 2010 5:14am Mar 2, 2010 5:14am
Time of Posting – Tue. Mar. 02, 2010. 11:14 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe price is still within the downward or bearish channel, and there is the likelihood that price would attempt to find its way down toward the lower edge of the channel – especially when we consider the fact that price is in a very strong longer term bearish trend. From a day-trade perspective, our bias favors the bears, and price break below the previous day’s low @ 1.3459 (not highlighted) earlier today gives more credence to the bias.
However, price is around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.3450 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), and it seems the bears are currently struggling to break decisively below the support level. It would be preferable to wait for the close of today’s candle to be surer of where price might be heading next.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has breached the most recent swing low @ 1.3459 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustains our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, to buttress the support hurdle the bears are contending with around the 1.3450 level, which we discussed on the Daily chart, price is struggling to break decisively below the most recent H4 swing low @ 1.3459 that we just mentioned above.
In all, our Daily bias still favors the bears, but we need to be very cautious if we attempt to seek Short trade setups, today, on this currency pair.
The white horizontal line @ 1.3653 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #475
  • Mar 3, 2010 3:38am Mar 3, 2010 3:38am
Time of Posting – Wed. Mar. 03, 2010. 09:39 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe price is in a symmetrical triangle formation. Yesterday, the bulls attempted to break above the upper edge of the triangle but were forced to retreat as they found themselves around a very strong resistance-confluence area of the upper edge of the triangle and the year-high @ 1.0897 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). Consequently, yesterday’s candle closed as bear-bodied reversal candle pattern.
From a day-trade perspective, our bias has shifted in favor of the bears. However, price is currently around the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle, and there’s the possibility of the bears experiencing some challenges in their attempt to break decisively below the triangle. Hence, while our daily bias favors the bears, let’s keep the triangle’s lower edge in mind as we seek Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart.

On the H4 chart (attached), earlier today, price slightly breached the most recent swing low @ 1.0719 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, to buttress the support hurdle the bears are contending with around the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle, which we discussed on the Daily chart (and seen on the H4 chart), we would observe that price is yet to break decisively below the 1.0719 level. Consequently, the 1.0719 level – in agreement with the lower edge of the triangle – could still be considered a support level that the bears must break below decisively for their resolve to be ascertained.
In all, our Daily bias still favors the bears, the white horizontal line @ 1.0886 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #476
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:03pm Mar 8, 2010 6:03pm
Dear fellow traders,

I won’t be posting the usual daily analysis for some time. Sorry for any inconvenience caused, and thanks for making this thread a valuable one.
  • #477
  • Last Post: Mar 8, 2010 7:25pm Mar 8, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting Tunji
Dear fellow traders,

I won’t be posting the usual daily analysis for some time. Sorry for any inconvenience caused, and thanks for making this thread a valuable one.
Hi Tunji, I will certainly miss yr post. Please come back soon. Take care
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