Talk about handicapped,i think i need a handicapped parking space more than her?
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Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #13,602
- Feb 15, 2010 1:23am Feb 15, 2010 1:23am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
Hello friends
She is really amazing. How much effort she had to put in...to be virtuous...
I thing that the very quest for many new traders is integrity.
For me its not easy to absorb "parts", but it is possible.
But this teaching demands to have all parts in coact.
I thank to everyone here to have patience with me. Thank you for that
She is really amazing. How much effort she had to put in...to be virtuous...
I thing that the very quest for many new traders is integrity.
For me its not easy to absorb "parts", but it is possible.
But this teaching demands to have all parts in coact.
I thank to everyone here to have patience with me. Thank you for that
- #13,604
- Feb 15, 2010 1:37am Feb 15, 2010 1:37am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Hello friends
She is really amazing. How much effort she had to put in...to be virtuous...
I thing that the very quest for many new traders is integrity.
For me its not easy to absorb "parts", but it is possible.
But this teaching demands to have all parts in coact.
I thank to everyone here to have patience with me. Thank you for that
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13604
regards
- #13,608
- Edited 3:49am Feb 15, 2010 3:14am | Edited 3:49am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Senior Member | 1,798 Posts
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
- #13,609
- Feb 15, 2010 4:01am Feb 15, 2010 4:01am
Hi ALL,
In reality, if you have been following the methodology closely,
is that when you are in attack mode, you have foreign capital cushion before you "press"
for attack, so you are prepared for minimal damage if flanked. but most impotantly,your nimbleness is in the attack. As in yesterdays scenario, there was good windfall already.
If you can remember , my hand hold session before, you would realise that as this windfall comesin the money, the possitions are wounded down. this gives you muscle for rewinding for another attack on the next...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1898024&postcount=1701
the forum won't quote whole text, do a paste job instead (in blue):Hi ALL,
In reality, if you have been following the methodology closely,
is that when you are in attack mode, you have foreign capital cushion before you "press"
for attack, so you are prepared for minimal damage if flanked. but most impotantly,your nimbleness is in the attack. As in yesterdays scenario, there was good windfall already.
If you can remember , my hand hold session before, you would realise that as this windfall comesin the money, the possitions are wounded down. this gives you muscle for rewinding for another attack on the next wave. this action also prepares one for the eventualities as we witness yesterday. where we met the owner of the market coming out in protest. The cost to the trader would only be opportunity cost in such instances.
Therefore to be able to carry out such, the mindset must be, to allow for lost opportunity cost on every attack.
Althought when the protest was in progress, most traders will not see CB face, but it will be announced within the (normally) 30 min time lag. Therefore, the only pain to recind is the small spiral, which can be easily reversed. That's why when the attack is in progress , we are known as "big guns". The rule of thumb is never to allow the "big guns" to stay on the field, after its purpose has been achieved.
Again as in yesterdays scenario, the smaller exposure may be trapped in battle ground, but that can be managed to reverse the positions "on wind". If I was in the dealing room , I would probably have seen CB in market much earlier, because they check the market many times before they act. Some tier 1 are actually acting on their behalf.
In unnormal situation of unseen hand at work, the same scenario is still applicable, but only that there maybe slight attrition to P&L due to reactive time scope. Nevertheless, they will never find the trader in attack mode and trapped in "dead ground" due to it never is in there long enough for targeting. At worst case , only part of the attck may be trapped.That's why the attack's nimbleness is critical for success and babysiting is necessary.
For normal traders, it would be highly likely that they would be caught log stock and barrel, while they where pushing for the market run. The deadly possibility is where they had actually added the bulk to press the run.This is especially so for term position trading. Or for break out traders. The difference is the greed factor.
So in reality there is no "just kill it" requirement. But if any comfort, a 3X of normal daily P&L range , would already signal, "dead in water" possibilities. From there the trader has to decided if the "cannon" (rescue of last resort) may be used, but that would depend on how much accumulated foreign capital is available for such an endevour.
Once you are experienced in this MO, you are mostly doing ants work regularly, and any attrition to P&L would be within the confines of your accumulated winnings. For banks that is limited to the annual quarter's P&L. This is also the reson why , when a disaster scenario is reported , as in the case of socgen, they can still report that principal is safe.
It would be great if individual traders can adopt this. But this is unlikely as , the modus operandi sowed in the minds of most trader is to profit in access of 3 to 4X cap ROI on outlay. So exposing them to castratopic runs on cap. Not withstanding those that want to make millions from pittance. Of course high gearing accelerates their demise.
Maybe this may help some come to their senses, that to be truely profitable , it must be over time ( like ants work), never depending on sudden winfalls. If of any value , to be on the watch out for and to reverse sudden misfortunes. [MINDSET] ...
Some catch phases to remember for myself:
attack (ideally already have foreign capital), be nimble to wind down (mindset to allow for opportunity cost on every attack), only small exposure trapped (easier to turn on wind), ..... 3X normal daily P&L
Regards,
Baifu
- #13,610
- Edited 4:37am Feb 15, 2010 4:24am | Edited 4:37am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
- #13,613
- Feb 15, 2010 5:00am Feb 15, 2010 5:00am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
Happy Day Everyone,
And a Happy New Years FTI,
Holiday here in the US today. Lets see where if any they want to go today.
regards
And a Happy New Years FTI,
Holiday here in the US today. Lets see where if any they want to go today.
regards
- #13,614
- Feb 15, 2010 5:04am Feb 15, 2010 5:04am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Happy Day Everyone,
And a Happy New Years FTI,
Holiday here in the US today. Lets see where if any they want to go today.
regards
no players, so bewary of short squeeze.
directional squeeze soon.
regards
- #13,615
- Feb 15, 2010 5:07am Feb 15, 2010 5:07am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #13,617
- Feb 15, 2010 8:44am Feb 15, 2010 8:44am
- Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Cartographer | 1,981 Posts
Happy New Year FTI and all friends from the East
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
- #13,618
- Feb 15, 2010 9:43am Feb 15, 2010 9:43am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Happy New Year FTI and all friends from the East
much fireworks display, and the 1st casino opens in Sg.
should had gone there, wasting time with market.
regards
- #13,619
- Feb 15, 2010 10:10am Feb 15, 2010 10:10am
Hi Auxesis and hcong168,
Thank you for your takes on pi skew, your comments make a lot of sense to me. I am happy and grateful respected veterans spend time to help us new students.
So the range window reference the leg’s volatility and range, we reset our current positions as base (=1) and “spiral out” to form a new spiral using range and volatility to decide the skew (how is never revealed, end of speculation). “Spiral out” because all previous spirals (positions) are contained inside the start of this new spiral. I imagine one example of application is at the start of second wave attack, when the left over scout from the last wave and the new scout form a new base. Just one scenario, among many.
This is advance stuff, to be done with skill learned from experience and practice, needless to say far too advance for me. But I have been experimenting with spiral in. I sometimes split the scout into 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 spies. Either scout follows spies or I skip some levels and go straight to attack, for example, when I am not sure of my bias near term and decide to scalp for foreign capital (play the range market)
May be fti use the term “pi skew” loosely, not necessarily saying the next larger number in the skew is 3.1416 x next smaller number, he calls this pi skew because pi is a component of spiral (spiral is made of quarter circles, = pi x radius x 0.5) not because each next larger radius is 3.1416 x next smaller radius. The actual skew of the new spiral is not rigid, it depends on the trader (skill and capitalization) and the circumstance (range window).
@Auxesis:
I understand what you said, I think
but my shorter time frame (1 min/ 30 sec for entry, M5,15,30,60 for set up) and lesser skill means I cannot customize position sizing real time according to risk-rewards reads from PA. I just follow fib numbers in my skew, because then I know the pip value of my new position = sum of last + next last positions, or = 1.618 of last position etc. My goal is to scale up or down my pip value as I follow the market.
@hcong189:
You are right. To quote fti in the thread you posted, “There are no rules, It depends on experience”.
Skip to my left,
Skip to my right,
Front load, back load, hump load,
Spiral in, Spiral out, ………….,
Don’t be rigid.
Quote of the text that was the subject of this speculation:
“Using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.”
恭喜發財 Happy New Year to fti and friends of East South West and North
Regards,
Baifu
Thank you for your takes on pi skew, your comments make a lot of sense to me. I am happy and grateful respected veterans spend time to help us new students.
So the range window reference the leg’s volatility and range, we reset our current positions as base (=1) and “spiral out” to form a new spiral using range and volatility to decide the skew (how is never revealed, end of speculation). “Spiral out” because all previous spirals (positions) are contained inside the start of this new spiral. I imagine one example of application is at the start of second wave attack, when the left over scout from the last wave and the new scout form a new base. Just one scenario, among many.
This is advance stuff, to be done with skill learned from experience and practice, needless to say far too advance for me. But I have been experimenting with spiral in. I sometimes split the scout into 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 spies. Either scout follows spies or I skip some levels and go straight to attack, for example, when I am not sure of my bias near term and decide to scalp for foreign capital (play the range market)
May be fti use the term “pi skew” loosely, not necessarily saying the next larger number in the skew is 3.1416 x next smaller number, he calls this pi skew because pi is a component of spiral (spiral is made of quarter circles, = pi x radius x 0.5) not because each next larger radius is 3.1416 x next smaller radius. The actual skew of the new spiral is not rigid, it depends on the trader (skill and capitalization) and the circumstance (range window).
@Auxesis:
I understand what you said, I think
but my shorter time frame (1 min/ 30 sec for entry, M5,15,30,60 for set up) and lesser skill means I cannot customize position sizing real time according to risk-rewards reads from PA. I just follow fib numbers in my skew, because then I know the pip value of my new position = sum of last + next last positions, or = 1.618 of last position etc. My goal is to scale up or down my pip value as I follow the market.@hcong189:
You are right. To quote fti in the thread you posted, “There are no rules, It depends on experience”.
Skip to my left,
Skip to my right,
Front load, back load, hump load,
Spiral in, Spiral out, ………….,
Don’t be rigid.
Quote of the text that was the subject of this speculation:
“Using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.”
恭喜發財 Happy New Year
to fti and friends of East South West and NorthRegards,
Baifu
- #13,620
- Feb 15, 2010 10:28am Feb 15, 2010 10:28am
- | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,849 Posts
Fti and gang, happy new year