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  • #61
  • Feb 11, 2010 5:51pm Feb 11, 2010 5:51pm
Ronin2002, I'd love your take on this...on how am reading this and what you think.

Ok, daily chart first...price coming down from a double top and flag forming after retesting support level..

4 hr- bear in mind , these are the same lines from the daily , its the same chart and didnt want to over kill with lines but basically price on the way down from an ascending channel and possibly forming a bearish pennant..


hr.1--if and when price closes below support of triangle...go short...red horizontal line would be my sl and green horizontal line my target...

Looking forward to your reply...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #62
  • Feb 12, 2010 9:30am Feb 12, 2010 9:30am
I apologise for the delay in responding, especially since this trade has passed. I am on CST here in the States. The short answer to your questions would be.....YES! The R/R appears to be good, so this would constitute a low risk, High Probability (or Likelyhood for the statistical purists). Good eye, and good job breaking it down. Let me know if you did take it, and how it turned out.
  • #63
  • Feb 12, 2010 9:53am Feb 12, 2010 9:53am
Well I just looked at the AUDCAD Chart to see for myself how things turned out. I hope you got into that trade. While it took a awhile to play out, and you had to take some heat, I see it went down to .9270 or so.
  • #64
  • Feb 12, 2010 6:45pm Feb 12, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting Ronin2002
I apologise for the delay in responding, especially since this trade has passed. I am on CST here in the States. The short answer to your questions would be.....YES! The R/R appears to be good, so this would constitute a low risk, High Probability (or Likelyhood for the statistical purists). Good eye, and good job breaking it down. Let me know if you did take it, and how it turned out.
Hey Ronin2002 no sweat dont worry about it...thanks for replying though. Actually I did take the trade and to be honest with you for a while there while it was going against me was really really doubting myself. I also took a very similar set up on usd/jpy , only on the long side and the tp was hit a lot quicker.

Cant thank you enough for getting me to look at at the market in a proper fashion. Kinda tough with no one pointing you and the right direction. I mean it, THANKS ALOT....

For the time being am sure with more practice on interpretting and spotting these patterns. atleast my efforts are being put towards the right direction .But unbelievably, for the first time in over 2 years am viewing these charts like never before and seeing things that were there all along and seem somewhat obvious now which just last week I would've been like , huh? you see what? really? where?

Still need much work on the confidence and am hoping that will come with time and practice...
  • #65
  • Feb 13, 2010 1:54am Feb 13, 2010 1:54am
hello, i'm newbie here.
i use chart pattern and trendline in my trading too. but i, sometimes, add pitchfork. in some cases, chart pattern only did not fill the signal accurately. i think collaborate these tools would be better. i upload the picture where i failed to get accurate entry. may you halp me to solve this problem.

in the first pict, i set a plan to entry a short position, then i did. but actually the price move to opposite. even it was true in the end, but i suffered -40. how can i take a right position? need your advice. thank's in advance
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  • #66
  • Edited 11:47pm Feb 13, 2010 1:37pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting morethanezra
hello, i'm newbie here.
i use chart pattern and trendline in my trading too. but i, sometimes, add pitchfork. in some cases, chart pattern only did not fill the signal accurately. i think collaborate these tools would be better. i upload the picture where i failed to get accurate entry. may you halp me to solve this problem.

in the first pict, i set a plan to entry a short position, then i did. but actually the price move to opposite. even it was true in the end, but i suffered -40. how can i take a right position? need your advice. thank's in...
Welcome morethanezra,

Its good to finally hear from another trader in training seeking advise.

I myself am still learning and dont really trade the 15min. charts with the hopes of avoiding just this..the whipsawy jerky movements of lower time frames..However, I'd love to tell you what i see and perhaps some of the more experienced traders out there can either confirm or dispute and we both may learn something new..

first, I see the entry as a bounce of a trend line, not necessarily confirmation of a breakout from a chart pattern.

second on the 15min. time frame just to the left of your entry the last pattern I see is a bullish flag which actually broke first to the bullish side. and also on the 15 min. right at your entry point I also see a small bullish flag forming.

all though it broke to the right side I probably wouldnt have taken the trade just do to the fact that it was BULLISH...

now switching to the one hour chart..I see a pretty symetrical triangle.....and its nearing a decision area as far as opening a position or not...so am looking for a confirmation (chart pattern) in the right direction on this key area in order to make my decision...Once again I see a bullish flag which broke to the short side and a small bearish flag forming...

so finally i see a flag in the direction I'd like to go...however the bearish flag breaksout in the wrong direction...so I would have not taken this trade due to that....

Would really really like to hear some other traders out there so I dont confuse anyone as to this is a good way of looking at this or not...

and once again , welcome.
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  • #67
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:55am Feb 14, 2010 6:55am
thank's for reply mf036ml

i see a triangle form on your chart. based on your chart (1h) the triangle pattern was broken, indicate us that bullish is on the way, but the lower line was broken too. but i have a different picture. it's look bigger triangle than yours. on my opinion, it's not confirm yet. to have a true break confirmation, i got it was difficult. but then, i had a solution (i thought). i watch the strength of pair correlation.

based on that picture, i would see the pattern on eur/usd, aud/usd, gbp/chf and usd/chf. if their strength are clear, their break almost in the same time, then i have no doubt. that was what i did. well, what do yoou think about this? thank's in advance


regard
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  • #68
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:16am Feb 14, 2010 7:16am
in other time frame, h4, it was break, but i was not confirmed yet. well, my english is not good, so i have no other words, even much i want to say.
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  • #69
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:33am Feb 14, 2010 7:33am
based on my two earlier picture, i try to map gbp/usd's movement. beside chart pettern, i add modified pitchfork (teal color), that i think it can show short resistant or support (see teal upperline pitchfork)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70
  • Feb 14, 2010 3:53pm Feb 14, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting morethanezra
thank's for reply mf036ml


based on that picture, i would see the pattern on eur/usd, aud/usd, gbp/chf and usd/chf. if their strength are clear, their break almost in the same time, then i have no doubt. that was what i did. well, what do yoou think about this? thank's in advance


regard

morethenezra & mf036ml:

Here's why the trade was so early (at least in my eyes):
The first chart is the 15min showing your trenline, however I added in S&R lines. Note the red horizontal dashed line. There was resistance there that needed to be tested before the price would fall. The next chart shows the 1 hour where that can be found more easily. As I was trying to explain to mf036ml earlier, patterns form around S&R, not the other way around. Patterns are good to give you a heads up as to where it may be found, but usually with some time & patience you will find them on a larger time frame. I play shorter time frames like you do morethanezra, and believe me it's worth the time. Also bear in mind the importance of the higher time frames when playing off of the lower ones. High frames my be built by the smaller, but they display the true momentum of the underlying. Hope this helps. Respectfully


RONIN
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #71
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:33pm Feb 14, 2010 6:33pm
ok, if price breaks on ascending triangle...white line tp red line sl....open for critic...I did take a look at the longer time frames but didnt want to post so many charts....it is going down so this would be against the general trend...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #72
  • Feb 14, 2010 7:54pm Feb 14, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting mf036ml
ok, if price breaks on ascending triangle...white line tp red line sl....open for critic...I did take a look at the longer time frames but didnt want to post so many charts....it is going down so this would be against the general trend...

Still watching and waiting, if this breaks I will be taking the trade.

Really wish I had more traffic on here and more traders in training posting there set ups ....both for learining purpose and by all means teaching purposes as well..

Ronin2002's participation has been invaluable and really hope he sticks around ....


And looking forward to other traders participation as well..

good luck to all,
  • #73
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:12pm Feb 14, 2010 8:12pm
hi mf036ml,
i got this on my eur/jpy. i use h4 that i converted into m15. red line below indicate that eur/jpy had fallen below., then followed by rising up, above the trendline. so i think it was not confirmed to fall further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #74
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:18pm Feb 14, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting morethanezra
hi mf036ml,
i got this on my eur/jpy

Hi Morethanezra,

Good to hear from you again, Looks like were pretty much on the same page with this particular trade. except looks like your entries a little bit earlier than mine.

good luck to us both on this trade if it develops...will keep you posted...
  • #75
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:29pm Feb 14, 2010 8:29pm
thank's for your quick reply mf036ml,
on my attached chart, it is current chart, my entry was not generated yet, but i will wait until it reach green area.
  • #76
  • Feb 14, 2010 9:39pm Feb 14, 2010 9:39pm
Ok, perhaps since it has been awhile since your posts any comments I may have would be of little use, but here goes. Myself, I have low confidence on this pattern being successful. triangles are low likelihood patterns in my eyes. Add to that the fact it is counter trend and I would look elsewhere. That's just me. I see when price has tried to break through 122.80 area it has been rejected over and over. I'll admit that the selling appears to be absorbed and the lows are rising, but again, it is counter trade.

I hesitate to comment to strongly as I am not and will never claim to be a 'guru' of any sort (just ask my teenagers, according to them, I am wrong about a lot of things ) and would feel horrible if I lead you astray. I do enjoy learning and sharing in this forum, and will continue until told to go away. In any event, you have to trade what you see. Anyway, have good night and happy trades
  • #77
  • Feb 14, 2010 9:59pm Feb 14, 2010 9:59pm
Pardon for my interruption. I noticed nice balances and interrupting falls in the last chart of post #61, and made the version below. Hope it helps.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #78
  • Feb 14, 2010 10:27pm Feb 14, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting mf036ml
ok, if price breaks on ascending triangle...white line tp red line sl....open for critic...I did take a look at the longer time frames but didnt want to post so many charts....it is going down so this would be against the general trend...

Just curious,

if anyone else out there watching this set up, will take it if breaks on the short side...and how they will handle there tp/sl's....

I personally probably will not...but would love to hear some feedback..
  • #79
  • Feb 14, 2010 10:46pm Feb 14, 2010 10:46pm
i think they will use it as their refference
  • #80
  • Feb 14, 2010 11:00pm Feb 14, 2010 11:00pm
seems like a pretty decent r/r ratio if it goes short ...with a tp. to that last support on the 15min. chart...
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