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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,541
  • Feb 12, 2010 12:52pm Feb 12, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting jacson101
Hi Fana,
No, I don't use stops I use VaR. This what I'm comfortable with.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk

The number of trades is not shown only complete sequences( booked, flipped, levels).
Each stack is an individual sequence of trades( adding or lightening up).
Great, thank you.
And one question... What is your average dd when close trade in loss? Happy weekend.
  • #13,542
  • Feb 12, 2010 12:58pm Feb 12, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting Fana
Great, thank you.
And one question... What is your average dd when close trade in loss? Happy weekend.
in the last 8 day's my average booked DD has been 2.00 pips.

I hope this helps you.
  • #13,543
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:09pm Feb 12, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting jacson101
in the last 8 day's my average booked DD has been 2.00 pips.

I hope this helps you.
Yes. So you dont let trades to go to minus area... And profits are mostly around 10 pips? Thank you, this was really the last question for today. Thak you very much. Best regards, Fana.
  • #13,544
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:11pm Feb 12, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting jacson101
Hi Fana,
No, I don't use stops I use VaR. This what I'm comfortable with.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk

The number of trades is not shown only complete sequences( booked, flipped, level attacks and rescues).
Each stack is an individual sequence of trades( adding to or lightening up).

Regards.

Hi Jacson101,

thanx for your statistics.
Can you please help me to read the VaR graph?

Ok - you made 130 sequences.
6 of this sequences ended in a small loss.
Largaest DD has been 10 pips.
Very execellent results I would say.
Congrats!

But what does this VaR graph is showing?
How do I have to read it?

Thx in advance!

MaMood
  • #13,545
  • Edited 1:30pm Feb 12, 2010 1:15pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Jacson101,

thanx for your statistics.
Can you please help me to read the VaR graph?

Ok - you made 130 sequences.
6 of this sequences ended in a small loss.
Largaest DD has been 10 pips.
Very execellent results I would say.
Congrats!

But what does this VaR graph is showing?
How do I have to read it?

Thx in advance!

MaMood
Hi MM,
>0% chance loss on the sequence. Booked loss = 100% loss on the position.
In real time it will fluctuate, until the position is closed. I see it as a $ value, not as %.
All measured over 1 day.
Regards and have a good weekend.
  • #13,546
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:18pm Feb 12, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting jacson101
Hi MM,
>0% chance loss on the sequence. Booked loss = 100% loss.
In real time it will fluctuate, until the position is closed.
All measured over 1 day.
Regards and have a good weekend.
Ah I see.
Thx and have a good one too!

CU,
MaMood
  • #13,547
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:20pm Feb 12, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting Fana
Yes. So you dont let trades to go to minus area... And profits are mostly around 10 pips? Thank you, this was really the last question for today. Thak you very much. Best regards, Fana.
Trades go minus, but we have a plan
yes, MY average trade was around 10+ for this period in time.

remember this just some analysis of MY trading, everyone is a bit different.

Have a good weekend.
  • #13,548
  • Feb 12, 2010 3:31pm Feb 12, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting lilpip
2nd timothy 3:16,17
all scripture inspired by god beneficial for teaching reproving, setting things strait and disciplining so man can be equipped for every good work.
Hi lilpip, thanks for that. Always slight differences in interpretations. When we work for good, it all becomes clear.

Timothy 3:16-17

16 All Scripture is God-breathed and is useful for teaching, rebuking, correcting and training in righteousness, 17 so that the man of God may be thoroughly equipped for every good work.
  • #13,549
  • Feb 12, 2010 3:50pm Feb 12, 2010 3:50pm
hello traders.. i accepted the proffesional way teached by FTI is not possible for me. i cannot trade full time, and my personality/scorpions are an issue. i thought i could modify the MO but now think it cannot be done.

instead of watching charts i started to make music again....
in decication to my mentor in dj-ing (the guy in this clip behind the turntables)
a song wich could be about trading, i wish all here, the very best "in the fast lane"

Inserted Video


a special thanks to FTI for your time and effort.

pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,550
  • Feb 12, 2010 3:59pm Feb 12, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting j-pax
hello traders.. i accepted the proffesional way teached by FTI is not possible for me. i cannot trade full time, and my personality/scorpions are an issue....
Thanks for your kind words.

Don't feel bad, only less than 5% of traders can. There are different ways in life. Find one that fits for you. Good Luck in your chosen endevours.

regards
  • #13,551
  • Feb 12, 2010 4:23pm Feb 12, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting fti
Thanks for your kind words.

Don't feel bad, only less than 5% of traders can. There are different ways in life. Find one that fits for you. Good Luck in your chosen endevours.

regards
thank you fti, i'll find my way, ... you say less than 5% of traders can... i have a feeling this does not even count retail/parttime traders.

to all new here ... be honest to your self.

edit: and don't believe th talking heads:
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regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,552
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:09pm Feb 12, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting j-pax
hello traders.. i accepted the proffesional way teached by FTI is not possible for me. i cannot trade full time, and my personality/scorpions are an issue. i thought i could modify the MO but now think it cannot be done.


pax
I am sorry to hear you are giving up pax, but I do admire your self-judgement and courage to admit that this might not be your thing. Wish you all the best and I hope you will drop by from time to time

Best regards and wishes.
  • #13,553
  • Edited 6:12pm Feb 12, 2010 5:57pm | Edited 6:12pm
Thank you fti. "Ask and Thou Shall Receive"
  • #13,554
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:58pm Feb 12, 2010 5:58pm
Hello to everyone on the thread. First I would like to thank fti for sharing his profound knowledge and experience here. This has helped me(and, I believe, many newbies like me) greatly.

I've been a silent lurker on this thread, reading and trying to absorb the information shared, doing my homework by researching all the clues fti has given, reading the books he suggetsted. I am new to Forex trading, I started demo trading about 6 months ago. In the beginning I tried fundamental analysis and new trading but it didn't work out. Then I turned to technical analysis and struggled to find the right system or trading strategy, this also didn't work out.Then I read the first page of this thread and thought this thread may contain some really usefull information. Guess what? I was right!

This precious information wasn't when to buy or to sell, how to enter and exit the market. The most valuable things I learned were money management and the personal traits and qualities that a good trader must have. I learned that greed, fear and ignorance are my worts enemies and that prudence, nimbleness and mental stability are may greatest friends.

I really want to thank fti and all of you who kept this thread alive. People like fti are such a rare thing nowadays. I've come across to only 3 such exceptional people in my 24 year life and I will always be grateful to them.

I opened a real account in the middle of last month with 400$ and I have made 20% prifit up to know. I'm trading with mini-micro lots ( 1pip = 1 cent) so that I can implement rescues

I've managed to get some pips and I'm doing the ants' work that fti mentioned on several occasions.

regards to all and many thanks,

MyTbo

P.S. Sorry for the long post. I have some questions regarding this week forex battlefield, but I will write them in a later post.
  • #13,555
  • Feb 12, 2010 7:25pm Feb 12, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting lilpip
exactly, and why ? mm
if I cant rescue at least 100-160 pips mm is not right.
try it and enjoy while learning.

g/u just moved 80 pips in 20 minutes for example, can you handle it ?
note taken 5674 area
Hi Lilpip,

If lot size $1.00 per pip -160pips so $160 gone if the big wave comes against me. And sometime happened to me that I started to put 2nd attack(after scout in and that happened to me quite often) then the prices came against me with a big wave so mostly 300-400 bucks gone in a flash.
Normally I prepare for 50-80 pips(possible 100pips) agianst me but 160pips that heaps of money.
my goal is average making $100/day so now now I'm working on -my scout $1.00 per pips if I'm right???
Any advice would be appriciated so I can adjust my mm Thank you

Best regards,
  • #13,556
  • Edited 9:10pm Feb 12, 2010 8:36pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting j-pax
hello traders.. i accepted the proffesional way teached by FTI is not possible for me. i cannot trade full time, and my personality/scorpions are an issue. i thought i could modify the MO but now think it cannot be done.

instead of watching charts i started to make music again....
in decication to my mentor in dj-ing (the guy in this clip behind the turntables)
a song wich could be about trading, i wish all here, the very best "in the fast lane"

a special thanks to FTI for your time and effort.

pax
Hi Pax how are you?
I started TAF about the same time with you I'm still hang on it. I'll miss you.
3-4 yrs ago I wanted to become a full time trader because the broker's advertising ' it's easy to make money on stocks,forex ...etc ans so on....'.

Bloody hell after 4 yrs I still don't make any money(lost some)spent money some on the courses (how easy is that as the brokers say) & thanks god TAF is free of charges Thanks Fti)& yet I've spent 20-30 hrs per week on learning & practice well I'm still working on it but I don't know how long it's going to be.

BTW Thanks everyone on the thread. so here songs from Joe cocker, Sorry a bit of Joe cocker festival
with a little help from my friends joe cocker version better than original from beatles even Paul McCartney admitted that.
And again thank you guys 'you are so beautiful'
Most of all we're all have to go 'up to where we belong'

Pax I sent you PM or may be email if I can't reach you

Inserted Video

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Cheers,
  • #13,557
  • Feb 12, 2010 8:59pm Feb 12, 2010 8:59pm
Welcome Mytbo,

You've come to the right place.

I opened a real account in the middle of last month with 400$ and I have made 20% prifit up to know. I'm trading with mini-micro lots ( 1pip = 1 cent) so that I can implement rescues

CongratulationYou are great Making 20% profit already.. if I'm not wrong 1pip : 1 cent is nano account or may be diffrent broker saying (1pip:$1 mini, 1pip:$0.10 micro).
I'm about to trade live but working on platform at the moment.

P.S. Sorry for the long post. I have some questions regarding this week forex battlefield, but I will write them in a later post.[/quote]

Great I can learn from you & your questions too

Cheers,
  • #13,558
  • Feb 13, 2010 4:19am Feb 13, 2010 4:19am
Hello friends. I have discovered something. Please, help me to navigate if i am on the right way.
It is about controlling risk and snowballs.
It was very difficult for me to get to this point of understanding, so i ask you for help again. Please, who knows how this works, tell me that i am now rightly directed.

I have discovered this :
Imagine trades...
Example: 10000units is scout
20000 is level 1
30000 is level 2
50000 is level 3
80000 is level 4

Now i start with scout. And i win, my targets will be around 10pips. So i have got +$10

I can go to level 1. I will trade 20000units and have mental stoploss somewhere around -4pips. I will be right. I won $20.

After scout level and level 1 i have profit +$30

This is level 2. I go with 30000 units, also profit 10pips, it is + another $30
So total scout+L1+L2 is now +$60

I can try level 3, 50000units and i also have profit 10pips. It is +$50
Now after S,L1,L2,L3, Total is +$110

Now next is L4(80000units). It will be wrong, so i close it -4pips. Loss is -$32
Total now is $110 minus $32. And The Total of this whole cycle is $78

The point should be, that i can controll risk with these snowballs. When not succed with scout and low levels, i have nearly zero losses. But when i have some 3-4 trades SUCCESS IN A ROW, IT IS IT !!! ???
Thank you
  • #13,559
  • Feb 13, 2010 5:33am Feb 13, 2010 5:33am
Hi to all

@pete.alfa
You are right, it's 1pip = 10 cents. I've missed the zero at the end

This weeks PA on EUR/USD left me with the impression that CBs intervened on several occasions trying to prevent the EUR collapse. Everytime the the price was going north fast with great momentum, there was sharp reversal. The first 2 times happened at around 1.3700 and then at around 1.3600.

With the Greek crysis on the news and the other PIIGS in the background and the news releases on Friday, I didn,t see any reason for the PA to come back above 1.3600. Do you guys see any reason for this?

Please share your thoughts

Regards, MyTbo
  • #13,560
  • Feb 13, 2010 6:19am Feb 13, 2010 6:19am
Quoting MyTbo
Hi to all

@pete.alfa
You are right, it's 1pip = 10 cents. I've missed the zero at the end

This weeks PA on EUR/USD left me with the impression that CBs intervened on several occasions trying to prevent the EUR collapse. Everytime the the price was going north fast with great momentum, there was sharp reversal. The first 2 times happened at around 1.3700 and then at around 1.3600.

With the Greek crysis on the news and the other PIIGS in the background and the news releases on Friday, I didn,t see any reason for the PA to come back above...
MyTbo,

My humble thoughts here,

Don't try and guess what the market will do, just watch the charts. It it's going up, higher highs lows, trade it north. The same if it's going down.

The market is heavily against the Euro at the moment. While Greece may be close to having something resolved, it doesn't eliminate the problem, just a band-aid over the wound, so to speak. Yes there are big hands in the market with certain interests but it's hard to hold back the tide. CB's can do it with much resources but tough for them too. Sometimes they tell you in advance, but mostly you will hear in the news after the fact. So don't rely on actual communications, news, media and such as all you will get is the tag number of the buss that ran over you.

It closed yesterday 3630. Can it take out take out Thursday's close of 3700? yes. Can it drop straight from here to 3400? yes. I assure you, when you draw a line in the sand, the market will step it's toe over the line to see how you react. So don't guess, don't view the charts with a predetermined bias. Just trade what it's doing now.

Regards.
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