USDCAD trend reversal?

One more note for the day. It is about becoming cannon fodder.
Sitting here at lunchtime there was a sharp selloff in the USD. Suprise, suprise it was after 12 noon est and before 1 pm est
There are computer driven short term funds that whack the market to flush out your stops. After they drive you out and then run into the real market they quickly close out the move and head to the bank.
When the markets are thin such as off trading hours these predatory programs will strike. They cannot hurt the real market but they will hurt you the small trader.
Use them to enter positions as they will invariably be countertrend initiated and will bring the market to what should become solid reistance or support whichever the move may be.
From me personaly, screw them the originators of these things.

My overnight order (sell @ 1.07) got filled early this morning and my TP got hit at 1.065. I'm liking this brief downtrend. Broke a downtrend line on my charts, and 1.0620-15 is another area of interest on my charts. Could bounce. But watching intently.

Another 2 easy shorts. That's enough scalping for today. My next line down is 1.0583. Today's S2 is 1.0581. Could have another bounce first though.

Will be of interest to see if the USD bears with fists full of trade deficit money find enough buyers in the Asia session. If Dollar buyers hold the line with demand then when Europe comes on line may have a nice move up.
Certainly will be a test of validity for the USD bull when Euro nations come out with the program to keep the Euro whole.
The surrender of sovereignty is not going to sit well with the Greeks. The birthplace of western democracy.

Another TP line hit (1.0582). 1.0555-63 is a serious support are on my charts. Then there's 1.0507 below that. I personally will close all open shorts there and would expect some sort of bounce. But with all the EU news and commodoties (relative) strength, it's difficult to tell what will happen before IT happens.

Good trading all.

Hi Duce, USD is at pretty solid suport in the longer time frames.
On the 8 hr it is right on the 20 sma
on the daily its been trading around the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the move that started in early march the 80.15 level.
Most likely that is why it is bouncing back and forth without clear direction.
Equities are at the juncture of bull and bear decision time.
I have trouble believing that Europe can continue with a strong Euro and come out whole. Just too big a problem for Germany to handle as it still struggles with reunification. The French want union but they are traditionaly more concerned about their own national interests. Sarkozy may suprise though.

Half way to my TP. Manually closed short. Don't want to leave it open overnight. I'll check tomorrow AM to see if we got to 1.0563-5 area.

I know this link is supposed to be about the USD/Cad. In my view currency markets are traded as individual pairs but they all interconnect via the driving forces in world trade.
As the move in last nights Euro/Aud exhibited there seems to be a knee jerk reaction that commodity currencies will benefit from world bailouts.
The deflationary aspects of these moves remains a minority opinion for market participants.
All that said I have partialy hedged my Euro/USD shorts by shorting the Euro/Cad
There will be some serious volatility as the Euro crisis comes to a head so if one decides not to be flat for the episode then reducing ones exposure in the market via smaller position size would be a way to reduce market risk.
It is possible this event may turn into something akin to trading through a N.F.P friday

More than likely Europe will attempt to minimize the impact, the only way to do that might be to drag this out and let the Euro work down in an orderly way.
Thus they avoid the IMF, maintain their soverign interests and make Europe more competitive globaly which will support the southern tier nations. Any statement similar to the one by BOE's King that inflation is not a real threat due to excess capacity would imply a weaker Euro.
This would buy the needed time to work out the bugs.
Certainly any quick fix attempt is not palatable. Culturaly, time is not as significant in Europe.
This is the scenario that helps me decide what to do in the market.

Hell of a morning. It may not be rocket science but it is a head scratcher at times. We are now going through the countertrend reaction with the closing of London trading desks. removal of buying pressure from Europe.
If USD is to continue to strengthen we will know soon with another test of the 136.00 level on the EURO/USD
Am glad I shorted Euro/CAD earlier. My GBP/USD short is pretty much sideways but was able to short the EURO/GBP but did it quite late into the move. Have a real tight stop so that trade if it goes awry will be a wash.
Not exactly happy with my USD/CAD long at the present time

This afternoon will see if Asia continues to put on carry trades for the weekend. With all the turmoil that line of thinking, is a lot to accept.

This pair is smashing all my levels on the way down. My charts said down and my gut has been saying down since we were up at 1.0744 area. There's no greater feeling than when your charts and your gut say the same thing. But this is where greed creeps in. My long term number is 1.0411. At that point, I will be quite content. Below that, I will be exstatic. But again...nobody knows what will happen 'til it happens.

BTW...1.0507 is a minor level. Baby bounce for scalpers. But since we pushed through 1.0530x easily, still a bear.

let's see if this works, buy 1.0522, SL 1.0490, TP 1.30

I have that same line on my Daily. But MACD says down.

good luck

Thanx Clouds.

Your TP was "open" before you edited it. Now you have 1.30. Are you serious? What time frame are you talking about?

i dont like making too many trades, i think the trend is up

Heh Duce, congratulations. Hope you make a bundle. Just watch the greed as you say.
It is a good thing to be able to be in tune with the market. That's why I rarely trade short term.
The Euro is a stick of dynamite with a lighted fuse. this morning was a powerful rally in the dollar index, this coming out of Europe. I just choose to not argue with the team that owns the ball.
There were times in the morning session when the AUD and CAD were selling off with the rise in the dollar. So there was some validating in the theory.
The exporters of Asia are in a pickle as the world cannot absorb the output any longer. The AUD looks like a distribution top to me, on the dailies. Shorting this pair is tough but thats what the charts are telling me.
Everyone is convinced the USD is a dead dog and cannot rally further, so if we do get a move up it will be quite a run.

I'm with you (Clouds). But because I'm a Canadian exporter, I find myself having to mitigate losses/gains in my regular business when I close a deal at one rate, and the rate is usually much higher or lower once I get my receivable back. So I trade. Sometimes I make some extra money. Sometimes my trades help me break even in my 'real-life' business.

Foto, et al. Trade well. I'm off to a meeting so no more Forex this afternoon.