CoG + Ultra Trend System

There is a good potential setup forming on the EURJPY chart.

 

1. UTF has plateaued
2. PA has consistently been over 50 pips south of the MA(68).
3. PA has touched the lower red CoG band, and is very close to the MS1 pivot. (I generally find that longs on support pivots and shorts on resistance pivots pan out well)

Renko candles are still consistently bearish, and the HMA(20) has yet to change, but there will definitely be a fairly profitable long signal soon. It could be 1 hour or 10 though, so don't get penisy. MS1 is about 23 pips away, and will mostly be the fulcrum for the trend change.

Anyone that has implemented the new UTF Renko Trend on the EURJPY chart will see that the HMA(20) has turned green, but hasn't been confirmed green. Three bullish green Renko candles are almost done forming as well. The UTF has yet to break upwards out of its plateau though, so I haven't opened the trade. This could just be a slight retracement from the previous big down move.

I got in and out of that EURJPY long for 5 pips, but got out. For the long to continue, PA would have had to exceed the upper white CoG level for several Renko candles. This is probably not going to happen. PA doesn't normally ride outside of either the upper or lower white CoG levels for very long (think of it like PA blasting through the S5 or R5 pivot levels, it just doesn't happen very often.) That being said, the CoG lines are getting pretty tight, and we could see a short plateau before a profitable trend resumes. PA is riding the FPV (equilibrium pivot) at the moment, maybe unsure of where to go.

Well...I was right and wrong on that EURJPY long. I got out too early @ 123.24 from 123.15 ( including spread). PA broke the FPV pivot, broke the MA(68), and looks to be headed to MR1 at the moment. Price is around 123.49 now, about 25 pips away from where I got out, and about 20 pips away from MR1 (if it goes that high).

PA will most likely see resistance around that level, and I wouldn't be surprised if PA constricted a little, as the UTF is about to cross (PA normally jumps back a little relative to the perceived trend when nearing the UTF cross, during the cross, and slightly after wards before the trend continues).

If you got in around the confirmed Renko candle @ 123.15-123.19, you'd be in the green about 40 pips minus the spread (about 800% more profit than I got and still going ).

I think I'm going to call it a night; it sure is nice complaining about how I ONLY got 5 pips profit and not 40 instead of losing . I just started using this system and didn't want to take much risk past that amount. Good luck to anyone implementing this system. I'd appreciate it if members would post their successes and failures so that we may all get better. Goodnight!

Hello

I am unable to attach the Renko indicator to my chart. Under tools - options-expert advisers - allow DDL imports is selected. The renko indicator was loaded to the indicator folder. Will appreciate any suggestions to rectify the problem.

regards

Dedyal

Hi rainingpips,

I was pretty keen to test out your system but i can't get the renko chart to work.
Everything loads properly on to the offline chart so it looks like yours but the price feed from the live chart doesn't seem to come through so price doesn't change on offline chart.

Any ideas?

Wes

The "Renko Live" indicator needs to be attached to the LIVE chart. After you have added it, you should see which offline "m2" to open. LEAVE THE LIVE CHART OPEN, DO NOT CLOSE IT. Open the offline m2 chart and add the template. You should get the live price feed. Make sure that .dll is enabled in the actual Renko Live indicator on your live chart. Post back if you're still having trouble.

Hello Rainingpips

Thats what the problem is. Can't attach the renko indicator to the live opened chart. When, from the indicator list you double click or try to drag & drop it to the live chart nothing happens.

B Dedyal

The Renko doesn't do anything on the live chart. It compiles a historical offline chart with the PA/time augmented to Renko. What it CONTINUES to do though, is stream live data to the offline chart which technically makes it a live chart with an "offline" tag at the top.

Try going to the top of your mt4 platform and go to: Insert --> Indicators --> Custom --> "RenkoLiveChart_2.1" onto the live chart. You are DONE with this chart, BUT DON'T CLOSE IT. Go to "offline charts" under file and open the m2 chart of the pair (chart that the indicator created). This is your trade chart which you then load the template onto.

If this doesn't fix your issue, your installation directory might be corrupted. Go ahead and backup all your customizations and scrub/uninstall all traces of mt4 from your PC. Reinstall and you should be all set. I had a problem with mt4 where it wouldn't let me open the "indicator/object lists." It would open them, but they wouldn't appear. I had to reinstall the whole platform.

Yeah thats exactly how i did it. Feed still not going through though.

Will look through the renko thread and see if i can find a solution.

Thanks

Hmm not sure what the problem is, seems another person was having the same problem too. Good luck, and please post back with the solution.

Here's another chart of EURJPY with a developing short trade signal. Notice that the UTF has plateaued, the HMA(20) and Renko has demonstrated weakness and PA is a relatively far north, 25 pips away, from the MA(68). The last legitimate downtrend was 25 pips south of the MA(68) , and reversed. Looks good for a short once the HMA(20) trend reversal is confirmed and the UTF breaks the plateau to a negative slope.

EURUSD has a pretty good short trade alert. Check it out.

Quick note: The Renko and HMA(20) trends are much more choppy on EURUSD than on the jpy pairs. Set your TPs lower than you would would those pairs.

Haha, that EURUSD short turned out to be bunk! I got out with a small loss, this system isn't going to pump out 100% legitimate signals, so pay close attention right after opening a trade. If UTF isn't trending towards or past either the "23" (for a short) or "6" (for a buy) level, be careful.

I'm thinking about trading only JPY crosses with this system. I just netted 15 pips off a EURJPY short, while the EURUSD is puttering around. The pairs I'm currently looking at are EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, CHFJPY and NZDJPY. These pairs show more volatility and compatibility with this system.

Here is the list of pairs that I'm watching in descending order of volatility/system cohesion:

 

1. GBPJPY daily average: 227 pips
2. EURJPY daily average: 201 pips
3. GBPUSD daily average: 155 pips
4. NZDJPY daily average: 147 pips
5. AUDUSD daily average: 134 pips
6. CHFJPY daily average: 133 pips

We need volatility and sheer pips to get, on average, good profitable trade alerts.

I'm taking trades with a 10 tp till the end of the week, as I continue to tweak and do calculations/backtesting for the average profit of a trend change. I've only got one 5 pip loss out of a bad EURUSD signal, and I removed that pair from this system.

Here's a EURJPY chart I just got a long signal from. Notice how the the confirming Renko candle for the trend was accompanied by a buy sigal arrow. The UTF saw trouble penetrating past the "23" level on the previous downtrend. I've seen consistent 10 pip profits off these signals all day. The last buy signal is good for about 32 pips right now (not including the spread). As I said, I'm being safe and taking the 10 and closing the trade until next week.

I like it very much, your Renko system, but I am having such a high success rate on track with what I have been doing a while now, that your last version
of the system for candles let me adjust to show differently and continue
so I want to show an example here and there of that system working
for me.

The arrows are the trix arrows, the sdl was not alerting for me
so I added these, you will notice how often they do line up
with good sdl changes so when they match its worth
checking the trade.

Entered at 1.5667 out at 1.5590.

Thanks!

Brian
golden1

PS: Just updated pic, apologize..first red line is entry, second is exit.