USDCAD trend reversal?

Good Evening FOTO: again thanks for your input( don't know about other viewers; but I get some serious viewpoints to ponder & maybe modify my trading strategies).

I agree that "finding a TF that works" is a key for successful trading. I find it useful to have a methodolgy for "said" TF.

To relax, I like to check for "scalp" probabilities on the 5M during Asia ( less volatility & lower likelihood that Asia will break prev day's high/low)

I do not think (please do not use the preceding as a quote out of context) that PA action is random. Certain central banks have a perception of where they want their currency to be & on occasion intervene wrt PA; the huge commercials certainly have a vested interest in where $ will be @ a future time reference.I feel that this is a purpose & thus; not random. It behooves the "bottom feeders" (a distinction that I proudly cast myself in) to try to discern in which direction they see $ to go! Random action is comparable to when I play "snooker" & take a shot. Where those balls end up is random (i.e. left to chance). The skilled player has perception & purpose to his shot. To me; this determines mkt action.

Hello Scarecru,
To be very truthful, I have always been envious of those who can make the short term game work. The greatest opportunities are in grabbing in and out segments of intraday moves. Your position sizing can be kept consistently small and a high probability method will fill the fish bucket to the overflow.
Every night when the lights are turned off a sound nights sleep is sure to follow.
So God bless to those who can pull it off.

Chowderheads like me have to learn to shrug off volatility and keep the nose to the grindstone and sometimes blinders on our eyes. Long walks by a seashore keeps things in perspective. Our personalities are responsible for the way we trade, and it behooves oneself to be true to what and who we are.
This week will certainly challenge all the bulls and bears out there.

Good Evening FOTO: "chowderheads","seashore" I hope that you are not in a part of the snowbelt that hit some of the Atlantic coasts this weekend?
( "long walks" might be replaced by " serious shovelling").

Too true, your statement re: personality & methods of trading analogy.
Fear has kept me from the lonnnnng trades( lack of knowledge re: politics & world events; these are issues that I have little knowledge of)-hence, my own form of risk-aversion.

Technical analysis & shorter TFs (D/to 5min)& the knowledge of the idiosyncrasies of each TF has increased my confidence when I put on a trade (I have more control of the probability of the outcome).As you mentioned-it behooves the trader to recognize his/her personality!

I am happy with 3-10 (5-20 pip)wins/ Asia.
If mkts during US are strong trend, then another paradigm for trades is invoked.
What I am attempting to acquire is an awareness for the fundie/political/global mindset.

Re: your last line-looking @ Friday's candle could be interesting. I'm gonna check out the chicken entrails

Hi Scarecru,
The following items might help you on your search.
Fundies and using them is an internal sort of thing. A model of what moves markets coupled with the ability to hold conflicting ideas in your mind and still being able to act (make judgement) allows them to be useful.
There are a few books that walk that line.
"Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds" is exceptional to learn about mania's
"Alchemy of Finance" George Soros his theory of reflexivity and how to construct a scenario model
"Myths to live by" Joseph Campbell He explores human spiritual motivations and I have found helps to understand differing global cultures
"Reminiscences of a stock operator" All time classic with incredible insight into the sucesses and foilables of trading
" Reminiscences" by Gen. Douglas McArthur A truly first rate mind both as a military stategist and for the geo-political insights that have created the post WW 2 world we live in. This book is in a whole other plane of intelect
"Day trading the currency markets" by Lien has a small section as a summary of the major economic theorists on fundies. A starting point if economic theory becomes your thing.

I would also suggest that you find or develop a long term trend following technical method. Possibly using 3 or 4 different period moving averages as components. You will be using daily charts or longer. Just watch what the averages do and how they respond to events over the next year.

This path is far from the crowd as it will test your limits and only you can decide if your desire for comprehension exceeds the roadblocks encountered along the way.
Best of luck

As a followup, since this is a blog I live along the eastern Seaboard and was north of the last storm. Supposedly there is one coming that will affect my area tuesday evening. Thanks for asking.
These are also publicaly accessable websites so as I come from another time privacy means something to me. I really do not understand why young people post their life history on things like facebook. Maybe it is the invincibility of youth?

FOTO: as always thank you for the gems.

The bibliography that you forwarded should keep me sated for a few weeks. I enjoy reading (books are so much more tactile than the computer screen & this,I believe; enhances the kinetic part of memory).
My home has 2 libraries and each has its own toilet!

I,also, value my privacy ( & I was not attempting to glean personal info from previous post). An interesting read might be J J Luna's " How to Become Invisible".

Interesting comment re: ma's on W,M charts- I utilize these on D & less TFs (but "fear" prevents use on higher frames-less control, too much drawback if retracement, etc). Thanks for the therapy session "DOC"

As I tell my children "Stay beneath the radar!" ( but they think 1984 is a year!).
Off to scalp-maybe some US$ weakness during Asia.

Foto,

Interesting books! The one by the ol' general sounds quite interesting, and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was a great read!

Just a note on MAs, when using 200 day plus MAs you might want to consider using EMAs vs. SMAs just due to the way they are calculated. Also, CTA/hedge funds etc., also tend to use these in their systems along with support/resistance, trend lines, and even fibs. Or so I've been told.

So what do you think on the ol' USD/CAD? 1.0850+ being hit soon? Looks that way to me as seems corporate orders are getting taken out/depleted in the 1.0730-50 area.

Cheers!

-ve Histo div on MacD

-ve STO div

I "might" consider sell 0660

Let's add to that an inside day, which can denote either indecision or in a prolonged uptrend especially near resistance that the rally could be strating to fizzle and a reversal could be in the making...

I have a small bullish bias despite the techs, and with great housing data out of Canada today and a bit of a rally in oil and gold the USD/CAD still pushed higher so leads me to 'feel' the market still wants to push USD higher...

Will play the ol' sell at failure buy a break around 1.0780 if I'm around for it.

Venge : W chart looks like U/Cad going to retrace.

Thanks for the ema/sma info. ( I gonna place this on a coupla charts)

BTW: ya may wanna rethink my fx info-cuz I thought Colts would win

haha!!! After that interception in the 3rd? or was it 4th? Whatever. They just kinda gave up! My buddy thinks the game was fixed as a lot of calls were shady and the announcers who are usually all over these kind of calls were quiet, eerily so...

Not nearly as entertaining as the Grey Cup showdown in Calgary this year!!!

Hello Vengeance,
The Usd/Cad is quite the interesting pair. As I think we are in a deflationary period and all the debt that the US Fed has allowed to accumulate will be quite destructive economicaly in the near future. I am looking for the USD to go to at least the 1.1500 area or higher.
In it's fears of inflation the market has taken oil and commodities to unsustainable heights.
During deflations money should buy more, not less of an item. So this inordinate fear of inflation has skewed the market and is an example of mania.
I am not looking for a depression although U.S. housing remains in one.
If the Usd/Cad breaks higher and when is always the really big question, this to me is the confirmation that the USD is in a true bull market.
Since when the market recognizes the reality of deflation and then moves is not predictable, I choose to sit with my long positions and wait.

I noticed that El Erian ( apologize if mispelt) from Pimco says they have been scaling back on debt except to the highest quality borrowers, his new normal scenario is being acted upon by the biggest players.

Prechter as the super bear is pretty tough to read, but he has his logic. An example of disconcerting ideas being accomodated in ones thinking.

Thanks to all. I am finding these posts stimulating.
Will be of interest if the USD index holds the 80.00 level today. If it does it is supportive of the bull stance, as it means positioning is using weakness to add size.

Well it looks like everyone has put the we hate the USD hat on again today.

I don't wear hats....messes up my hair. I was long EU and got a pleasant surprise just now. Took that profit and went long UC with a big SL (courtesy the EURO USD traders )

Today was mine.

Nice long! EUR/USD really made a nice move! I managed to around when German bail out Greece rumour hit the wires. Shorted USD/CAD at 1.0755 and rode it to 1.0680.

Then this pair reversed when German gov't spokesperson said rumour was "unfounded".

Wat a mess in this pair today... Staying out for now.

Might just end the day as it started The Euro soverign debt is bigger then Greece. How much rot is really in Europe is going to be difficult to hide.

USDCAD is yes, a weak short, as it also displayed today with the up-down movement.

Longterm is still up. 1.0550s is the mark to watch for a concrete trend reversal in my opinion.

All that debt sloshing all over the world, just never know where the festering sore will show up next. Might even be bullish for the USD as the credibility of the Euro is more then just tarnished.

Who is willing to pay for the latest Goldman inspired mess?