CoG + Ultra Trend System

Would you post a couple or more of your recent trades and
recent success record. Like to hear what's happening and
how the system is working for you.

Brian

Hai everyone. I just found this thread and it seems rather interesting.
I will be using the system and see how it works. I quick question, the indicators u post on post #38 works best with m15 or h1 or any other?

I used this on a live account today and it went well. My first attempt failed cause my SL was kinda low. After that i got back what i lost and gain some profit. Very good system. Good job

To help this thread develop, could you post a couple of those or new trades, doesn't matter really..

thanks!

Brian

Sorry to everyone requesting further information or example trades in the past few days, I've been w/o email and didn't get an update for new thread posts.

Since my last post, I've made several revisions to the template, along with the indicators used. I've added a MA/RSI/Stochastics/Bollinger bands indicator that I've found compliments the UT_FAST movements.

The chart is getting busy, but I've been trading off a 23" wide screen monitor, so there is plenty of screen real estate to work with. If you are serious about trading, I recommend getting one or two of these to work with different pair windows, etc.

Basically, I've divided buy and sell signals into a series of sequential logics (that could possibly be applied as a blue print to writing an automated EA using this system ).

All trades are to be taken on the 1 HR PERIOD

BUY:

(Preliminary / Primary Alerts)
UT_FAST "UTF"
1. UT_FAST needs to have passed the "15" level, and plateaued along the zero line. (Most signals, 95%+, will have plateaued, some will not even cross the "25" level"). This is the bread and butter indicator for this system.
Slope_Direction_Line (20) & (35) "SDL (x)"
2. Next we look to the SDL lines (20, 35). After we observe UT_FAST movement and it's slope turn positive, we should see the SDL(20) become "green" signifying an uptrend. SDL (35) will become "blue" after a few periods, depending on the PA upward.

Trade Confirmations / Checks
JB Center of Gravity (non-repainting) "CoG"
1. Observe where PA was relative to the CoG before and after the SDL(s) changed to uptrend status. What we want to see is PA past or riding the "bottom green" CoG band. This signifies that, much like the bollinger bands, price was oversold, and ripe for a upward correction or bullish trend change (the correction will be of lesser magnitude, the bull trend change will deliver the more pips).
RSI/MA/Stochastics/Bands "RSI"
2. I have borrowed this indicator from Forex Factory FX-Group. His system, located here : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=207012 has generated over 2700% since its inception during November 2009. I really like this system, but think it lacks some of the confirmation strengths of this system. Check it out, it's very simple and works like gang busters. Onto the indicator though...

What we are looking for is all the lines to compress along the bottom of the indicator window (below the "25" level). I have observed buy signals from this indicator occur above this level, but most of the successful signals yielding more than 50-75 pips occur below "25". After the compression, we look for the "blue" stochastic element to cross the top red band. All the lines should spring up from the plateau into a very positive slope (about 0.5). This is a very powerful indicator, and I'm slowing integrating into the UT_FAST window as one of the primary indicators for this system.

MACD_Colorhist_Alert 12 26 (MACD)
3. Slightly unnecessary at this point, I look at the MACD last in order to gauge to potential magnitude of the move. If you are not familiar with the MACD patterns (mountains, double tops, etc.), do so, as many of them alone are great signals. That being said, if you are not comfortable with the MACD, you can remove it from the template w/o a great loss towards signal continuity.



For a Sell, reverse the above. Sorry for a non-detailed explanation of shorts

I'll include the logics later tonight, as the Super Bowl is almost on, and I don't have my logic notes in front of me. Colts will probably run away with it, but there is no UT_FAST indicator for that so who knows.

I'll post the example chart along with the new indicator(s) and template in a later posts; and some trades I've taken in the past days.

Ok, so in addition to the simple structure of this system, there are a couple logics which should be valid before taking a trade.

Legend:
Slope_Direction_Line (Window A) : SDL

UT_FAST (Window C) : UTF
Stochastics(Slow line) (Window C): STD
Stochastics (Fast line) (Window C): SG

RSI/MA/Stochastics/Bands (Window B): RSB
JB Center of Gravity (Window A): CoG
Price Action: PA

Buys: (logics are in descending order)
UTF=0 (plateaued state)
UTF>8/9 (last period CLOSED)
STD>UTF
STD<SG
SDL (slope) > 0
RSB < 25 (All elements should be tightly entwined below this level)
RSB, stochastic element exceeds top Band.

The way I'm actually entering trades though is not absolute. I normally average in to attempt to capture the majority of the trend change. This acts also as a hedge against a poor interpretation of the signals, or a sudden reversal. I encourage anyone following this system, and putting in orders before the UTF either gets very close to crossing the "50" level in Window C, to average in by increments of 15-20%, playing the stochastics.

PA will tend to retract slightly in the opposite direction of the perceived trend change when the UTF crosses, which allows for an excellent entry point. I usually sink about 60-70% of my trade upon this event.

There was another member that had excellent success trading just off the UT_FAST crosses. This is the EA I'm currently working on, to alert and open trades on the subsequent period/candle following a CLOSED period confirming the cross @ "50."

Attached is a EURUSD chart with, perhaps, the perfect setup to a very profitable, 300+ pips at the moment, short trade. I've circled the alerts in each window of the chart that indicate a short signal. Followers of the UT_FAST crossing ONLY should note a very steep downward slope, followed by the cross without a stutter.

As I mentioned before, this indicator is the bread and butter of this system, especially when paired with the other indicators. The UTF behavior previous to its move to the downside should be of interest, as there was little stuttering during the plateau and shortly before it. We saw a straight shot move towards a very negative slope.

The RSI indicator also exploded downward, with the Stochastic element bypassing the lower band, and all other elements fanning out as well. The "fanning downward" pattern is of importance in this window. The stochastics in Window C were also on the way down, complimenting the UTF slope.

Finally, the SDL (35) turned yellow/bearish VERY quickly (x<1 period) following the SDL (20) going red/bearish. Coupling these indicators together would have yielded a short signal following the SDL (35) closing bearish.

More experienced traders averaging in and carefully observing the UTF could have got in before the UTF actually crossed. The CoG bands also turned towards a negative slope during these other events.

Anyone following this system: trade off of the UTF breaking the "25" level, and the subsequent period CLOSING above he "25" level. Don't try to get tricky and play around this level. A break above 25 is one of the best indicators you'll ever see for a trend change confirmation. Look at the other indicators in the process of submitting the trade. After a while, you'll see how they compliment and guide your decision in either averaging in, or fore-seeing problems in the direction of the UTF.

A quick note before I retire for the evening, EURUSD is exhibiting signs of a reversal/trend change. The UTF is inching towards/past the 25 level, but the SDL (35) has yet to change. A signal might appear in approximately 2-5 hours indicating a long. Something to watch if you're currently using or testing this system.

USDJPY's UTF crossed upward about 2 periods ago, but hasn't shown much volatility. I would be careful trading with this system on some of the less volatile pairs, like USDJPY. Your capital is better invested in more volatile pairs such as GBPUSD, EURJPY or even EURUSD rather than a poor performer.

I would very much like it if another member could help write an EA to simply indicate UTF CLOSES above the "25" level and UTF crosses. Anyone interested, please post in the thread of PM me. I can't be awake 24/7, and I'm missing alot of good entries simply because I'm asleep.

Here's the trade that I setup last night in my previous post. EURUSD was showing clear signs of a trend reversal, with the UTF showing movement to the upside, and the RSB beginning to diverge, and fan upward. If you got in around the open of the subsequent candle following the close of the UTF above "25", around 1.3628-1.3638, you're sitting @ around a around 45 pips of profit at the moment.

I usually set TPs around the 50-75 pip range, and got out @ 1.3694, which was also the MR1 pivot point. Setting TPs and SLs very close to pivots usually yields good returns. This signal alone had the potential to generate 80+ pips of profit if you got in when you were supposed to, and it's still going strong.

You can also see how, following the UTF break of "25", the SDL (20) and SDL (35) both went bullish, further confirming the reversal uptrend. Hope somebody got in.

I think this is better..good shot here, thanks!

Brian

Please post the newest revised template here if you will

And any indicator changes if need be.

Thanks

Brian

Here's the new template with all the indicators. Let me know if I forgot anything or the template is wonky.

Working on this now... thanks. If you can post a couple of more
trades when you can, it would be great!

Brian

I am adding/subtracting indicators/schemes to this system on a daily basis; as I find better ways, in my mind, to visually depict what I have in my head as the ideal system for me. I changed the scheme to an offline "Renko candle" based system. Anyone not familiar with Renko candles might get really lost here, and I would direct you here for a detailed explanation/thread with the indicator(s):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=189584

I'm leaning back towards PA, "feeling it" type trading; which is how I first started trading before I became savvy with the myriad indicators out there. So essentially, this is now a PA/leading oscillator system now. I've taken out the "RSI" idicator, as it is mainly superfluous now, and just clutters the chart.

The CoG is back in force in this revised version, as PA has become more heavily weighted in making decisions. The Slope_Direction_Line has been replaced by the HMA(x) indicator. I believe this new indicator more closely matches the activity of the Renko candles than the SDL did. There was a MA(68) added, which more or less is a good top or bottom for the trend.

There is also an indicator that prints arrows on potential entry points.

Many of these elements have been melded from the "NITRO Scalping for Serious Traders" found here;
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=193524

Anyone still following this thread should see I'm building this system mainly from the choice parts of other successful proven systems, save for the UT_FAST (UTF). The elements I elect to include match my trading style well, but my be an anathema to your method.

I'll include the new trading logics in another thread.

You won't mind me posting a couple 30m trades with this basic setup here to see if there is any interest?
share what I see here in this thread


Brian

By all means!!! I've been waiting for someone to become active and using the system. I have made changes, ones that I will soon post, as I'm sure you have to suit your trading style and preferences. As I mentioned above, I'm moving towards PA with the new main window indicators I've added (which I will post soon as well ). UT_FAST works great on any time setting above 15m with the default settings (but can be fine tuned to work on 1m and 5m, I wouldn't recommend it though, gets really choppy and unprofitable unless you have a broker like alpari with consistent 0-1 pip spreads spreads).

Look forward to some of your trades! No system is perfect, and making new additions and learning from others' successes and failures is what allows trading knowledge and ability to grow.

Here are two charts with the new indicators and template. Renko candles are somewhat independent of time, and work more so on patterns and price velocity (as far as I know). Everything else in the system is essentially the same, but the focus is now primarily on the main window, with the Renko "trend" along with the HMA(x) as the trade signal. UT_FAST is still important, as it confirms the direction of the legitimate signals.

For example, in the EURJPY chart, there is a sell signal [HMA(x) goes bearish, Renko candles become bearish], however PA didn't directly engage a pivot level or daily high/low. It did hit the equilibrium level of the CoG and bounce down, but (most importantly), would have been against the general slope/trend of the UTF.

Once the UTF slope becomes positive, and has crossed the (in this case) "8" level, it is ill-advised to go short. Think of it as the all important "don't go against the trend / the trend is your friend" mantra.

I'll go into some other good trades / bad trades in this setup later.

Post your Renko setup here then... so those of us already with you
can check it out. I keep getting sucked into renko, I lost
myself in it a while back but am willing to look again to see
whats up

Brian

Here is the template and new indicators for my new scheme. The old indicators are posted already in the thread, maybe not the FF Calendar, but you guys should already have that . Basically I look for trend changes [HMA(x) changes, trade signal arrow present right before or after HMA(x) change, change in Renko candles] that are confluent with the UTF slope, or the new UTF slope should it have plateaued.

VERY IMPORTANT FOR RENKO (offline) CHART TO STAY UPDATED:

1. Open up a new chart (live), lower spread pairs and/or more volatile pairs are recommended
2. Load the Renko indicator onto the live chart. Ensure that you enable Allow .dll imports !!! (see step 6 why)
3. You will be notified at the top left hand corner of the chart in white lettering which offline chart "<insert pair here> m2" you need to open.
4. Go to file --> Open Offline, and open the previously indicated chart
5. Apply the UTF+Renko Trend template to the OFFLINE chart
6. MOST IMPORTANT STEP. Leave the live chart OPEN. This chart feeds the offline charts with live data. If you closed the chart or didn't enable .dll on the live chart, you will only be able to view historical data. Renko requires "historical offline" charting in order to work. This Renko indicator though works around this weakness of Renko by allowing live data to stream into the normally static, offline chart.

I'll go more into how exactly I get into a trade, my R/R and how I play it while it's open in later posts. In the mean time, see what works for you.

Here's an annotated chart that I traded off earlier today if EURJPY (a very good pair to use with this syste m despite the 3-4 pips spread from Interbank FX ).

The first trade was a short signal

1. The UT_FAST had plateaued (best possible prior state for the UTF
before a trend change). Be wary of where PA has been and is in the CoG.
2. Bearish Renko candles began to form, along with the HMA(x) going
bearish.
3. There was a sell signal arrow on the second Renko candle, but we
don't take the trade yet.
4. I waited until the third Renko candle formed, confirming the HMA(x) bear
trend, along with the sell signal arrow.

Other Notes:
PA had been steeply bullish, flirting the the upper white band of the CoG, and riding the upper red band throughout the trend. This type of behavior is consistent with an imminent reversal keeping with the change in Renko and HMA(x) trends. PA also strayed VERY far from the MA(68) to the tune of 120 pips. If that isn't a sign of an eventual correction, I don't know what is. Normally the farther an individual trend strays from this MA, the more potent the reversal will be until PA temporarily stabilizes around it.

Only take trades in the direction of the HMA and UTF. If you choose to average into a trade, going 20-30% on the first signal is wise, followed by the rest in incremints or in total following additional homogenous Renko candles and UTF slope continuation.

The most important thing (I've already been burned once or twice) is WAITING until the HMA has been CONFIRMED and the confirming Renko candle has CLOSED. While you might be watching the chart closely, and are "sure" that the trend has changed and want to get into the trade at the earliest possible time to maximize profit, DON'T. More than likely, the trend has a few remained candles left before it changes, and your SL will get hit.

I included an example of a false signal in the uptrend following the previously detailed downtrend trade. We see bearish renko candles begin to form, and there is even a sell signal arrow. Notice where the UTF was though. It was in the "6-8" level range, and trending upwards. This would have been a bad trade. PA was also below the lower red band, very close to the lower white band. We don't really want to engage in shorts that far south of the equilibrium (black line) of the CoG.