Chart patterns and trendline discussion.... | Forex Factory

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Chart patterns and trendline discussion....

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 6, 2010 2:03am Feb 6, 2010 2:03am
I'd like to start this thread in the hopes of analyzing chart patterns and trend lines , interpretting them and using them to trade succesfully.

I realize that this is a very subjective subject and is open to several forms of interpretation based on each individual traders way of looking at the market.

by no means am i here to teach anyone anything but to compare analysis in the hopes that i myself may learn something. I hope to take away from this some knowledge from the more experienced traders on here if they would be so kind as to dish out the constructive critisism.

Since I will be concentrating on recurring patterns I will not be so concerned about which pairs I trade but more so on the time frames.

I myself will concentrating strictly on the four hour and daily charts.

but please feel free on any input or your own particular trades so long as they are based on sup/res. areas or recurring and interpretation of chart patterns...

shortly I'll post what am look at for the beggining of the upcoming week...so let'er rip....

best of luck
  • #2
  • Edited 2:27am Feb 6, 2010 2:16am | Edited 2:27am
For the opening of the upcoming weeking am currently looking at the eur/nzd on the 4 hour chart. I will try to post the chart on here but please bare with me if I am unable to do so correctly as its been a while since i've posted anything on here..

Ok, for this pair am looking to go long at the beggining of the week and would love to post up my chart with my trendlines for interpretation but apparently I do not know how to do this.

so I will continue to try and in the meantime , please am open for suggestions on the easiest way to post a screen shot of the chart.
  • #3
  • Feb 6, 2010 2:29am Feb 6, 2010 2:29am
Here is my current chart with my sup/rest. lines drawn.....I am looking to go long off of the support line...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:46am Feb 6, 2010 4:46am
How about some horizontal lines as well?
  • #5
  • Feb 6, 2010 9:18am Feb 6, 2010 9:18am
Quoting mf036ml
Here is my current chart with my sup/rest. lines drawn.....I am looking to go long off of the support line...
What pattern are you trading to go long? Chart work is a very personal so I am not trying to be critical of your analysis. What I see is that sellers enter the market at the current price levels and there is a big up candle that needs to be squared sometime, so maybe the sellers are going to regain control next. I do not trade this pair and it sure looks congested in this range.

Not sure how you want to proceed with this thread, but I will check back from time to time to participate. I am a believer that forex profits flow to those who are best at pattern recognition, and I will be happy to contribute as best I can.
  • #6
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:06pm Feb 6, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting GEfx
What pattern are you trading to go long? Chart work is a very personal so I am not trying to be critical of your analysis. What I see is that sellers enter the market at the current price levels and there is a big up candle that needs to be squared sometime, so maybe the sellers are going to regain control next. I do not trade this pair and it sure looks congested in this range.

Not sure how you want to proceed with this thread, but I will check back from time to time to participate. I am a believer that forex profits flow to those who are best...
Please dont worry, this is exactly what i was hoping for. thank you so much for your input.

remember I am learning and there are definetly eliments of analisis that I am missing..

I'll tell you my thought process behind this particular trade and by all means it is open for critic.

I see this as an upward wedge. now wedges and triangles are signs of congestion ...correct?

I had also put a sma of 50 and the sentiment seems to be long...

I only want to trade with the trend so I am not looking at any downward bounces. strictly long..

Now what i am iffy on is ...would it be wise to trade with the trend and get in early off a support bounce..or would it make more sense to wait for a break out of these levels on either side....if the price breaks down which is against the current trend would this void any trade..

and i have not even touched upon my sl and tp. levels which definelty I need alot of work on....

I was thinking a very conservitive trade and perhaps using a sl of 1.9789 which is just behind the last support bounce and perhaps a conservitive tp. of 2.0056.....now if the price does break out on the upside I would be missing out on letting my profits run...this is a subject and an area I still have much to learn..

Once again, thank you so much for your input and this is exactly what i was hoping for...looking forward to hearing your take on how am reading this...
  • #7
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:14pm Feb 6, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting pipmutt
How about some horizontal lines as well?

Pip mutt,

thank you for your suggestions...now bear in mind. I am simply trying to learn....

i zoomed out for a better over all picture and drew both support and resistance lines on what i interpret to be the most recent significant levels...

Please, would you deem these as accurate and please feel free as to how you would interpret these...should interpret this as price perhaps making another run to test 2.0436 level?

thanks again for your input and hoping to hear your interpretation as well...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8
  • Feb 6, 2010 3:52pm Feb 6, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting mf036ml
Pip mutt,

thank you for your suggestions...now bear in mind. I am simply trying to learn....

i zoomed out for a better over all picture and drew both support and resistance lines on what i interpret to be the most recent significant levels...

Please, would you deem these as accurate and please feel free as to how you would interpret these...should interpret this as price perhaps making another run to test 2.0436 level?

thanks again for your input and hoping to hear your interpretation as well...
We're all continually learning, no-one ever knows it all, I think that's what keeps the interest alive!

I've always found most technical analysis is fairly subjective and there's rarely a 'right' or 'wrong' way to use it, it's how we see things which matters and which gives us definitive entry and exit points, and the confidence to risk money.

When using TA I'm more of an intraday trader, for longer time frames I tend to use fundamentals and technicals together.

I don't want to color your view by introducing my tools and analysis because there's nothing to say I would be right in that analysis any more than you would be.

For previous highs and lows I try and take the most obvious ones to me, but I'm looking for a breakout more than a retest so it's a slightly different approach. I also take Fibonacci levels into account.

IMO the best we can do is find what we believe are probabilities and trade them.

Sorry, that all sounds a bit vague really!
  • #9
  • Feb 6, 2010 10:55pm Feb 6, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting pipmutt
We're all continually learning, no-one ever knows it all, I think that's what keeps the interest alive!

I've always found most technical analysis is fairly subjective and there's rarely a 'right' or 'wrong' way to use it, it's how we see things which matters and which gives us definitive entry and exit points, and the confidence to risk money.

When using TA I'm more of an intraday trader, for longer time frames I tend to use fundamentals and technicals together.

I don't want to color your view by introducing my tools and analysis...
No problem, I actually appreciate the input. I'd love hear from other traders as well as to how they trade these patterns...

be it, retest of levels and entering with the current trend or breakouts from these levels...

Thanks again for the input...
  • #10
  • Feb 6, 2010 11:12pm Feb 6, 2010 11:12pm
Here's another pattern i'll be watching in the upcoming week...a falling wedge on the 4hr. for nzd/chf....

Am looking to take shorts off of the resistance level....I also did not mention and would like to hear your take on it ....on finding my patterns on the 4hr time frame and my entries on the 1 hour ..(off the bounce/retest)....

and the same for patterns found on the daily's ...taking my entries off of the 4hr....
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  • #11
  • Feb 7, 2010 4:56pm Feb 7, 2010 4:56pm
Getting ready to start the week and see what lessons this weeks mistakes or triumph may bring....pairs I'll be watching as the week starts are the following..

Eur/nzd- looking for longs
nzd/chf-looking for good short opportunities
aud/cad-looking for possible short set ups
eur/dkk- seems to have been trading sideways for a while and a bit of a down channel has formed-but i'll more than likely stay away and just watch...price is above the 200 sma which i like to watch as well. So dont feel as comfortable shorting which is what i would be looking for...

really hope to see some other members charts and analysis and chart patterns with their interpretations....
  • #12
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:21pm Feb 7, 2010 5:21pm
short @ 0.7381

initial sl: 0.7429

initial tp: 0.7307
  • #13
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:47pm Feb 7, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting mf036ml
short @ 0.7381

initial sl: 0.7429

initial tp: 0.7307
chart
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  • #14
  • Feb 7, 2010 6:41pm Feb 7, 2010 6:41pm
ok to be honest am not really thrilled about my decision as far as the risk/reward ratio I went with on this trade. but none the less, I took the bounce off support on rising wedge on the daily for the eur/dkk..
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  • #15
  • Feb 7, 2010 7:06pm Feb 7, 2010 7:06pm
Curious to hear some of the more advanced succesful traders on trading these patterns as to whether these patterns are more succesfully traded using support and resistance levels as entries or waiting for breakouts of these levels as entries...


Thanks in advanced...
  • #16
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:02pm Feb 7, 2010 8:02pm
Short Aud/Cad

tp- 0.9226

didnt post the chart cause its a bit time consuming and not really seeing much interest or interaction...so will post final results on the current 3 positions i have open...
  • #17
  • Feb 8, 2010 1:20pm Feb 8, 2010 1:20pm
Open postion.....falling wedge/down channel interpretted as a continuation...my sl levels and tp's still have much to be desired...but working on interpretting these patterns and my entries for the time being
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  • #18
  • Feb 8, 2010 2:39pm Feb 8, 2010 2:39pm
had posted this and deleted it by mistake...sorry..

would appreciate someone elses take on this....

I see , rising wedge...sign of congestion..correct

also possible sign of continuation of trend...

What would be best in this scenario as far as an entry..? wait for a bounce off support or for a breakout from resistance...thanks in advanced..
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  • #19
  • Feb 8, 2010 2:58pm Feb 8, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting mf036ml
had posted this and deleted it by mistake...sorry..

would appreciate someone elses take on this....

I see , rising wedge...sign of congestion..correct

also possible sign of continuation of trend...

What would be best in this scenario as far as an entry..? wait for a bounce off support or for a breakout from resistance...thanks in advanced..
Here is another view of the CAD from a 4H time compression. I see an uptrend and a bull flag that is very tradable on the break if you missed the entry at the .50 fib. I trade the 60M chart and enter/exit on the 10M chart, so my approach differs from yours.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #20
  • Feb 8, 2010 3:08pm Feb 8, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting GEfx
Here is another view of the CAD from a 4H time compression. I see an uptrend and a bull flag that is very tradable on the break if you missed the entry at the .50 fib. I trade the 60M chart and enter/exit on the 10M chart, so my approach differs from yours.

Attachment
Thank you so much for your input...although the trading styles are different , atleast were thinking about the same direction...
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