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4H Box Breakout

  • #5,001
  • Jan 13, 2010 12:58pm Jan 13, 2010 12:58pm
I'm getting a problem with the EA whereby it says this in the journal: please see attached. Can anybody offer any input?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Error.jpg Size: 54 KB
Probability Professor
  • #5,002
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:20am Jan 14, 2010 1:20am
Quoting Galation
I'm getting a problem with the EA whereby it says this in the journal: please see attached. Can anybody offer any input?
Tha data are corrupted. You should download fresh historical bars through the history center.
  • #5,003
  • Jan 26, 2010 3:09pm Jan 26, 2010 3:09pm
Hi Ace and all constructive contributors of this forum,

I took my time and read all the posts on this forum, before I talk about my question I would like to convey the creator of this system ACE and all constructive contributors my sincere thanks and deepest appreciation on creating and sharing such a valuable system and its improvements. Tip of hat to Pharoah, Dano, RR, Yen, and many others.

I am relatively, new and a part-timer to forex, and this is my 2nd system I have completely read and now raising questions.

1. When the box size is small, sometimes, BUY/SELL both orders are stopped out and by the time I come and see the status the market is gone far away. What box size minimum we should have for the breakout to have optimal enter/exit levels. ACE did mention that no trade if the box size is 200+. What if the box size is less than 100 pips? in this case i have noticed that market take at least 1 or two retrace and then set its direction. so what to do to avoid this.

Regards
ForexZak
  • #5,004
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:30am Feb 4, 2010 12:30am
After few months not entering this forum because busying with my family stuff, this system it seems to be ended. Anyone still following this system? Myself not 100%/ blindly follow this system, I will draw a R & S lines, MAs and add in Fibo + EW concept to see whether want to set buy or sell order only or both. But the main idea is still come from this system because it is easy, set and forget style which suit to my work time.

I believe even we paid to get signals, advices... we also not getting 100% accurate trade, we still will have lost trades. Just because we pay for that and we are more confident on them than urselve, we tent to follow blindly.

ACE, are you in any of the forum that more interesting than this one that you created?
  • #5,005
  • Feb 6, 2010 1:29pm Feb 6, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting pips info
After few months not entering this forum because busying with my family stuff, this system it seems to be ended. Anyone still following this system? Myself not 100%/ blindly follow this system, I will draw a R & S lines, MAs and add in Fibo + EW concept to see whether want to set buy or sell order only or both. But the main idea is still come from this system because it is easy, set and forget style which suit to my work time.

I believe even we paid to get signals, advices... we also not getting 100% accurate trade, we still will have lost trades....
Frankly, this system has not performed well for along time.
Had anyone risked actually 2-4% per trade, he would have blown his account.
I think Ace made some modification and I am sure I know what he did as I had made some changes as well, but do not use this system anymore as it takes too long to stay in trade and I have only 4 hours a day to trade . Leaving trades running while I am away is out of question.
  • #5,006
  • Feb 6, 2010 2:19pm Feb 6, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting shiko
Frankly, this system has not performed well for along time.
Had anyone risked actually 2-4% per trade, he would have blown his account.
I think Ace made some modification and I am sure I know what he did as I had made some changes as well, but do not use this system anymore as it takes too long to stay in trade and I have only 4 hours a day to trade . Leaving trades running while I am away is out of question.
I backtested this system over last last year and I think it made around 70 times return on invesment. I think end of December and January was a bad period for all breakout strategies because the range was very low.

Volatility was also extrememly high last year so it's unlikely that we'll see a repeat of that performance. It's likely that we'll see a much lower return and longer periods of drawdown which emphasises the need for careful MM.
  • #5,007
  • Feb 7, 2010 1:00am Feb 7, 2010 1:00am
Using set and forget does not cut it anymore. I have to manage the trade.It still has a good entry point. As long as i am reasonably in the money ,I get out . Dont want to get greedy and take chances since it is very volatile.
  • #5,008
  • Feb 7, 2010 8:02am Feb 7, 2010 8:02am
i back tested this from today til oct 2009. looks quite good if i incorporated S&R n pivots.
  • #5,009
  • Feb 7, 2010 11:41am Feb 7, 2010 11:41am
Hi Guys,

the problem with this "fake" breakout strategy is that you will always found a better way at some time to enter your trades.

It will be the second H4 candle, or this of the past week, or the 2 first 4H candles,etc...

This is a random entry.

The only good thing you can learn with this is to let your trades runs and because of "set and forget" you can avoid your bad management as beginner.


Just my thoughts,
Billy
  • #5,010
  • Feb 8, 2010 1:13am Feb 8, 2010 1:13am
Quoting yunielescaz
i back tested this from today til oct 2009. looks quite good if i incorporated S&R n pivots.
Agreed
  • #5,011
  • Mar 9, 2010 10:36am Mar 9, 2010 10:36am
first of all thnks ace.
anyone tested it on gold? better than gbpjpy?
  • #5,012
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:24pm Mar 12, 2010 1:24pm
Hi everyone haven't posted here in a while, I am sad to see Ace leave but this thread has gotten a bit out of control.

The system has worked pretty well for me even though I did make changes to it as time went on. For those of you who are lossing on this sytem you have to learn trading before jumping in blindly and just trading. So just take some time and read some books and learn how the market moves before just throwing your money away.

I will be sticking around if people need help.

Gus Forex
  • #5,013
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:01pm Mar 12, 2010 6:01pm
Gustav,

How about providing some ideas on how you better implement this trading strategy?

Thanks,
BC
  • #5,014
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:30pm Mar 12, 2010 8:30pm
Well I have been working using some moving averages and RSI to better predict the way to enter trades and definitely keep a close eye on the news to figure out what might happen throughout the week. Ill post some shots of the moving averages later.

But I do feel like the most important part that I changed is not entering blindly, just look at the news ahead of you for the week and keep an eye on the forecasts even though they are not always right, they can at least give an educated guess at what will happen.
  • #5,015
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:55pm Mar 25, 2010 5:55pm
I just discovered this system today, so I'm getting my feet wet with how to use it. After reading what the parameters were I went over to GBP/JPY and found that it would have triggered both a Buy and a Sell for this week, with the Buy currently showing a very nice move and the Sell stopping out.

I then had a thought - - what if we drew a box not just around the first four hours, but expanded the parameters. I don't know if anybody has already done this because I just found the thread today and haven't read through the entire thing, but it could work. Right?

For kicks I drew a box around all of Monday instead. I know, a huge box with 20 pips on either side of the Monday candle. But the upside is, hopefully, not triggering both Long and Short. For this week that would have saved us from hitting both sides.

In a brief backtesting of the last 12 weeks it looks like this would have had a 7W and 5L record, so nothing great. Then, just for kicks, I looked at combining Monday and Tuesday into one HUGE box and that yielded 12 W and 0 L. Hmmmm. That's interesting. Not as big of a pip winner as the original I'm sure but it's hard to argue with 12 W.

I then just looked at Tuesday and got the same 12W and 0 L. Another hmmm. I remember reading in the forum that some people prefer to avoid trading on Mondays, so using Tuesday as our data gathering day may not be too far fetched.

I only came up with this idea as I'm typing this note, so I don't have all of the facts, just an idea. It looks like some weeks would have been 0 gain and others pretty decent. I wonder what a two lot trade with a 50 or 75 TP stop 1 and a move to BE on the 2nd lot would yield. I think I'll look into it . . . .

Anyway, has anybody looked at expanding the 4 hour block? If it's in the thread already I apologize and would appreciate some direction as to where it is and what happenend.

Thanks!
  • #5,016
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:14pm Apr 4, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Ace284
I've seen breakout strategies for daily and weekly. I've never seen one like the one i'm about to present.

DRAW a box connecting the high of the first 4hr candle(00:00) of the week with the low along with a buffer of 20 pips on each side.
The week starts at the open of the Australian session.
If I had a penny for every time someone has asked which candle it is..i wouldn't need to trade forex to make money. For the next person who is going to ask, follow these instructions.
Download an FXDD platform. Press Ctrl+y on a 4hr chart. Lines will...
Thank you ACE for youre post its incredible!
The only barriers in life are only the ones that we create to our self's..
  • #5,017
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:36pm Apr 4, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Gustav,

How about providing some ideas on how you better implement this trading strategy?

Thanks,
BC
I do feel like this strategy still has a lot of potential, and I still use it almost every week with a lot of success. I do think one cannot enter this blindly by just buying and selling if the indicator says so. The best thing to do in my opinion is to look at the news events to see if anything will cause a spike in either direction since that will throw off your trade. I will post an indicator I saw on one of the threads which actually post the news feed to your metatrader right on the chart.

Besides looking at the news, pay attention not just to the future but the past, what if the previous week employment reports came out and a large spike happened, this week might be a correction of that which might throw off your indicator.

The 4H Breakout has a lot to do with how you trade and in my opinion to use successful over a long period of time you have to manage it and not just blindly trade it. Which is why I see people come on here and complain saying this isn't working when it works great. Just have to use your head.

I will post the indicators later today once I get home.

Gus FX
  • #5,018
  • Apr 5, 2010 2:59pm Apr 5, 2010 2:59pm
how to change indicator to work with all pairs...not only jpy
  • #5,019
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:10pm Apr 5, 2010 6:10pm
The only problem with using on other pairs is that this is following the first 4h candle which normally forms during the push of the Tokyo open so would have some weird issues on other pairs.
  • #5,020
  • Apr 5, 2010 9:58pm Apr 5, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting gustav213
I do feel like this strategy still has a lot of potential, and I still use it almost every week with a lot of success. I do think one cannot enter this blindly by just buying and selling if the indicator says so. The best thing to do in my opinion is to look at the news events to see if anything will cause a spike in either direction since that will throw off your trade. I will post an indicator I saw on one of the threads which actually post the news feed to your metatrader right on the chart.

Besides looking at the news, pay attention not just...
hey gustav i'd really like to see that indicator. cheers
The only barriers in life are only the ones that we create to our self's..
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