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Silent Service Method

  • #7,081
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:46am Feb 5, 2010 9:46am
Quoting clockwork71
I think it's possible. Let's put it this way: The markets are more likely to drop on bad news, than rise on good news. Fear is a strong emotion, and it's starting to take hold. We have been hearing for some time now about the potential problems in Europe, and now they are starting to come to the surface.
Thank you for simple and valuable answer
  • #7,082
  • Feb 5, 2010 11:05am Feb 5, 2010 11:05am
Quoting egkid
Real panic in my view, Anyone also think so?
Agreed.


Am I the only one hoping for some kind of retracement to get short gbpusd, eurusd, or eurjpy?
  • #7,083
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:34pm Feb 5, 2010 12:34pm
It'll be interesting to see if we get a nice pinbar on stocks. Incidentally right around 10,000 on the dow. Keeping a very close eye on the close here...

Still 30mins left to go...

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  • #7,084
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:47pm Feb 5, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting InfinitySL
It'll be interesting to see if we get a nice pinbar on stocks. Incidentally right around 10,000 on the dow. Keeping a very close eye on the close here...

Still 30mins left to go...
Gold and silver printing really juicy daily pins as well. Is it the fabled sucker-pin?

Thanks PPT. Those guys really know how to get the technical traders attention.
  • #7,085
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:00pm Feb 5, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Low
Thanks PPT. Those guys really know how to get the technical traders attention.
I don't know if i buy that all that PPT stuff. If there really was a PPT, you wouldn't have seen days in 2008 where we had 500+point drops in the dow with no buyers in sight? And If there is a PPT, they weren't very good at their jobs! My current theory is that so many people missed this rally from March '09 onwards that there's little danger of an outright crash -- there'll be too many people rushing to buy the dip (which I think is what you're seeing here...).

But that's just a theory, we'll see what prices actually do... Nasdaq & small-caps are outperforming the big-cap stocks (S&P and Dow) in a pretty big way.
  • #7,086
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:29pm Feb 5, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting clockwork71
Just thought I would let you know I have the votes to get into the "Commercial Section" and have sent a message to Twee.....so I would believe this thread should be moved in the next few days.....
Congrats!

If your kids and your dog don't listen to you, get a cat - that way you will have someone who not only doesn't listen but rather actively ignores you
  • #7,087
  • Feb 5, 2010 3:23pm Feb 5, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Congrats!

If your kids and your dog don't listen to you, get a cat - that way you will have someone who not only doesn't listen but rather actively ignores you
Very true!
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  • #7,088
  • Feb 5, 2010 3:38pm Feb 5, 2010 3:38pm
Our little cat resting after a long hard day of... sleeping
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  • #7,089
  • Feb 5, 2010 3:44pm Feb 5, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Our little cat resting after a long hard day of... sleeping

Gotta love those cats! Or be a dog person! lol
  • #7,090
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:10pm Feb 5, 2010 5:10pm
I love cats......




I just can't eat a whole one....
  • #7,091
  • Feb 5, 2010 8:39pm Feb 5, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting Low
I love cats......




I just can't eat a whole one....

lol.
  • #7,092
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:47pm Feb 5, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting Low
I love cats......




I just can't eat a whole one....
Use more butter!
  • #7,093
  • Feb 6, 2010 6:56am Feb 6, 2010 6:56am
Quoting clockwork71
Just thought I would let you know I have the votes to get into the "Commercial Section" and have sent a message to Twee.....so I would believe this thread should be moved in the next few days.....
Congratulations!
  • #7,094
  • Feb 6, 2010 9:50am Feb 6, 2010 9:50am
Quoting calderone
Use more butter!

  • #7,095
  • Feb 6, 2010 10:45am Feb 6, 2010 10:45am
Quoting calderone
Use more butter!
I was thinking more along the lines of a nice mushroom gravy....
  • #7,096
  • Feb 6, 2010 12:58pm Feb 6, 2010 12:58pm
I don't know about you guys, but the end of the day on Friday in the US was very interesting. We got a nice shot straight up in the markets. (Bullish that is...) With all that's going on, you have to ask yourself:

 

  1. Is this a bottom?
  2. Did something change in a big way at 2 pm EST?
  3. Is it more likely short covering because of a potentially news-sensitive weekend?
  4. Was the sharp move down the real deal?

These are all the questions you should be asking yourself over the weekend. Also, watch Asia. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bit of a bounce for the first 24 hours or so of next week. But we have clearly seen lately that any bad news knocks the markets straight back down. Positive news seems to have little noticeable effect.

Take a look at GBP/USD for example.....we finally broke out of the "box" to the downside. It certainly took long enough.

  • #7,097
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:32pm Feb 6, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't know about you guys, but the end of the day on Friday in the US was very interesting. We got a nice shot straight up in the markets. (Bullish that is...) With all that's going on, you have to ask yourself:

 

  1. Is this a bottom?
  2. Did something change in a big way at 2 pm EST?
  3. Is it more likely short covering because of a potentially news-sensitive weekend?
  4. Was the sharp move down the real deal?

These are all the questions you should be asking yourself over the weekend. Also, watch Asia. It wouldn't surprise me to see...

yep seemed like massive short covering going into the weekend...

couple of rumours ive been hearing around the traps

- traders covering shorts as EU discussing plans to stop the Greece situation
- big hedge fund blew up during the week liquidating positions in oil longs, meaning the Thursday selloff may have been overdone..

just some rumours, who knows, but I made a call for a bottom last Friday at work, probably wrong as most bottom picking is, however theres a lot of key markets heavily oversold imo. Monday morning will be very interesting...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #7,098
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:49pm Feb 6, 2010 5:49pm
I read "enhancing trader performance" by Brett Steenbarger not too long ago, and he had this filter for trading emini's intraday, based on NYSE tick data.

He identified levels (horizontal lines in this case) which the tick data hit rarely, 600 and 800 we good for short term sentiment reversals, and 1000 was considered extreme. In the case of extreme tick ($TICK) readings, the strategy was to fade it (go short on ticks readings of +1000, and long on readings -1000)

I never bothered to think much of this because it doesn't apply to FX, but FX is correlated to equities, and some trader on another site brought up that Fridays reading was -1400, which if you already had a set-up, and other confirmations, it would bolster the argument to go long.

Since I've been eyeing that gold pin, I think I'll be taking it Sunday as soon as spreads narrow enough to be reasonable.

If anybody wants to learn more:

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/...-intraday.html

http://www.articlesbase.com/day-trad...s-1696560.html
  • #7,099
  • Feb 6, 2010 6:03pm Feb 6, 2010 6:03pm
Steenbargers blog is the best going around id say... strongly reccomend reading everyday, really helps on the psychology side of trading which to be honest is like 90%
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #7,100
  • Feb 7, 2010 5:34am Feb 7, 2010 5:34am
Quoting whitegoodman
yep seemed like massive short covering going into the weekend...

couple of rumours ive been hearing around the traps

- traders covering shorts as EU discussing plans to stop the Greece situation
- big hedge fund blew up during the week liquidating positions in oil longs, meaning the Thursday selloff may have been overdone..

just some rumours, who knows, but I made a call for a bottom last Friday at work, probably wrong as most bottom picking is, however theres a lot of key markets heavily oversold imo. Monday morning will be very interesting...

I still feel the direction overall is going to be down.....but I certainly can see a bounce as being reasonable.
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