Technical Analysis Fallacy

lookin at weekly time frame, bias was down from 4100 with extra interest @ 3743 area
eyes open .
monthly timeframe extra interest @ 3648

g/u monthly timeframe
1.6797
1.6250-74
1.5752.... eyes open

u/j weekly areas of interest
9217
9056
8895...eyes open

eur/chf is at the previous CB intervention level.

don't leave your babies unattended tonight.

lookin @ e/u friday
1.3976
3821
3667

watchin a/u 8665 at moment along with 3 kingdoms .

sure acts like she wants to head south.

note taken @ 3668 scout in @ 86 b1x 87

closed u/j b-8895 @ 8965

g/u scout in @ 5735 watchin how 5752 area responds.

squared and looking for scout entry
this is what Im lookin at for friday u/j
9091
8965
8839

I dont feel good shorting from here , gonna scalp around till its clearer,

@baifu , thanks , I wish all newcomers wld read the whole thread like u before asking something ... its just 200 pages , at most takes a whole Sunday ...

first thing this morning that I looked at was the eur/chf pair.

surprise, surprise the CB payed a visit.

got caught in the middle by the Swiss ^&e#!@ ... Bugger!

Seems that ladies have a small rest now... 2,30pm...unemployment rate maybe show us direction...

Made it out with a sweet profit thanks to a well placed rescue. And paid a lot of nerves before that. Done for today, not enough time to trade the unemployment. We have G7 tomorrow - should be interesting next week.
Have a nice weekend guys

nfp time ,
expectation to be +ve , its priced in to be +ve
if its negative , theres gonna be a lot of usd selling ...
ah well anything can happen , so stay nimble ...

As of now my bias is up from e/u 3648,
b 1 x @ 3652

nop,
not enuf usd seller ...

Hi ALL,
Soon ,
I will teach this the imbeciles, what battle is like.
When my funds TT are ready.
Now Big Boys are no play, I AM BIG BOY.
One eye jack in the land of the blind is still king,after all.
Bring the battle to my door.
The proxies and manipulators, I spit at them.
Come manipulate.
The battle field will be sea of Blood.

Gold Bless. Be focused, watch you babies well.
Its thin and manipulated terrain.
To each their own.

regards

Returns the Dragon.

Heros

Fields of Red.

Didnt i missed you chief yesterday.....good to see u back


V

Those that got bloodied in the yen yesterday.
Remember your lesson.
What you experienced was a barrage of japanese exporters selling the usd. They are grouping up to attack.
Be nimble or be sitting duck. That is your choice.
Note toyota is hitting the pits soon. Its war, and the battle lines are drawn.

if you like to leave your babies unattended, then you pay the price.

regards.

very well said....and also very much noted....and yes i got humbled...out from market for next week as well now regrouping...

I paid the price... and humbly accept my fault.. wont lie and not giving excuse if i had kept position open only for 30 more sec i would have been breakeven... not making excuse just letting u know...

Hello,

I discovered this thread not long ago and i have some thoughts to share. The Sun Dzu thing is phenomenal, i bought the book the first time i watched "Wall street" and since then read it some 30 times. At some passages you get the feeling that the book is actually written by a trader not by a chinaman oldtimer, there is so much in common. Even Gordon Gekko did quote the book, hopefully in the sequel film will do again.

More for the discussions here, trading naked is not the best option, it's the only option. If you don't trade naked, you will eventually lose all. Period.

Everything is superb in this thread, except for the progression thing... I used to be a professional gambler and i can assure you that NO type of progression works in the long run. The chance always catches up with you ... Used all kind of progressions at Horse racing , tennis, roulette, blackjack... never, ever worked.

However there is one option for progressional recovery to work... A monster hit rate, lets say 75%. And here comes the grand question, if you have that kind of hit rate, do you really need the services of progressions ? These kind of traders say they have zero tollerance for losses... BS! Don't you know, that only losers are scared of losses ? What's the matter with you ?The only thing it does it adds to the already high stress level of this business. Some will say, that progressions is used from already successfull traders to enhance even more profits, but i don't think this is the way.

One thruth - Progression is an attempt to beat the odds mathematicly, which is impossible, even without commissions at betfair, 50/50% value bets at bookmakers, zero at roulette and forex spread. If you succeed at beating any of those games with math, then grats, mate, you've broken the code of the universe, the code of God, which Einstein tried to define in the end of his life. The shiffre of the chance. With the above said apart, Forex is a completely beatable game.

P.S. That junior member hand-moderated submissions make me really unhappy. This also indicates of what the internet and world has become.

something for the weekend

looking at a monthly chart at the close of jan. my bias was up from 3648 even when we first reached that area but a close at 3664 isnt very convincing at all as we look at the daily charts.

She sure acts like she wants to continue south as she doesnt seem very motivated to head north.

Hello
And NO. You dont understand what is this thread about.
Try to read the first page. You just try to understand it how YOU want. It is a mistake. "Know what i know" is not the way.

One thought for you:

You have a trade. Long... Your target is nice, you wish that it will go 25pips up....
You see, that cycles are in some nice range... Up is your target and support is somewhere where you want to enter.

Yes and you go now from somewhere above the support, it is going up again...catch the pulse they are buying...go with them..... JUST WITH 1lot.

But.... You are back and what a shame... in -5pips back on the support, but it holds very strongly... It is preparing to fly, you feel it... It started...now it is strong move up... So you wait for small retracement and add 2lot....

You close it with +25, +50pips....

When you was in -5pips and see that it is not bull, that it is +,-,?, ...
You close this very soon without any ??.

This is only example to consider. In fact, there is no reason, why it should go somewhere. Charts are rigid. Use them ONLY AS A TOOL. Yes, good tool, but only a tool.

Everytime ask: Is this worth it? Do I want this position?
1lot.............mental SL for example 10
2lots when adding......mental SL 4 = but when you add this, you are more sure about the direction...
Risk can be managed.... Not success? Never mind, your profits are due to your doing.

See it?
Regards