USDCAD trend reversal?

Yo FOTO: thank you again for your valuable insights!!!
The 30 yr tf reminded me of a paragraph that I read ( Bird Watching in Lion Country). The author said that most traders stand too close to PA (like standing next to an expressway & using binoculars to watch the traffic flow). The successful traders are far away from the traffic flow & are able to view the road from way back to way ahead in order to see if there are any obstacles that may interfere with the flow & how the traffic could flow up ahead. Poor analogy, & I apologize.
Loved when RR ( in a candidate's debate said -I shall not bring up my opponent's youth & inexperience; if he does not bring up the age issue-or words to that effect). There was vision, there was a plan,there was committment ( the Air Traffic Controllers soon learned this).
Thanks for the equities nugget & politics. I shall pay more attention to these areas.

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DEMA

How does this daily chart look? My target is 1.0400.

Yo Quantisan: your bottom indicator appears to be +ve divergence.

My D has 200 going down ( like your channel)
0740 has been good Resistance since '09/11/20
STO is going down, but MacD>H20 & RSI>50.
I'm watching 056ish ( convergence of Dec 21-Jan22 Down TL & Jan19-Feb3 up TL).
NFP on Friday -I stay out because I am unable to trade during the NY or London times ( job constraints).

FOTO's & VENGE's are the posts you really want to consider.

Scare, you are too kind! Sounds like someone is trying to get some 'real' Canadian poutine shipped down to them?!?! Keep it up and that just might happen... haha

I'm sitting out on this pair at the moment as things are a bit too range bound and...directionless...at the moment. 1.0540 area looks to be shaping up as solid support, and 1.0640 area as resistance. If you take the simple moving averages from short to long term and average them out you get a rate of aout 1.0628 or so and with current spot in this neighbourhood, USD/CAD is very slowly trying to gring higher...Overall trend is still up so I would be thinking of going long on a bounce around aforementioned 1.0540 area...

But like Scare said, NFPs on Friday so buyer beware!

If one is looking to go short, I would suggest selling a failure at 1.0640 and keeping your stop loss tight - maybe at 1.0670 area...

Cheers,

Veng.

Hey Quant,

Despite anyone's analysis, if you are happy with your idea and have valid reasons for shorting, go for it! I might adjust the target to 1.0470 area which coincides with the daily low from Jan 22nd and 50% retracement of the run up from 1.0220s to 1.0720s.

Anyway, best of luck!

Yo Venge: you "silver-tongued" devil. Great info ( as always)

Stating the obvious, all eyes are on the ECB. Whether or not Mr. Trichet can come up with a satisfactory idea about solving the club med economic woes without lowering the Euro will be quite a Rabbit out of the Hat trick.

Maybe the Obama group will manage to say something counterproductive is always a wild card.

Staying with a position trade through all the volatility is the ultimate rollercoaster ride. And here I thought currency markets were for the sedate.
Good luck to all

Price action has moved back up to the 1.075 range, which has served as resistance since November.

The longer term daily downtrend failed to take out the Oct 15th lows which would signal that the trend may be weakening.

If we break out above 1.076 then price action could move up to test 1.087. It would also negate the downtrend, which would probably put us into sideways price action until a new trend is formed.

If the price action holds below 1.075 and breaks below 1.055 then the next real support is around 1.041 (November and December lows)

Protectionism? really?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1456109/

If the USD Index closes at or above the 80 level for the week this is bullish near term. If the 80 level gets taken out tommorrow cleanly then this move has some serious legs.

What a day! Post-ECB we saw USD soar as good ol' risk aversion reared its ugly head. Oil and gold both got sold off with gold an astonishing 49 bucks lower! Equites got pimp smacked and the indices were 2% or more lower.

Looks like the focus on Greece's debt problem is now shifting focus to Spain, Portugal and Italy (PIGS) as sovereign credit in Portugal was marked lower than corporate for, I think, the first time ever...Spreads have just been widening all week.

The JPY crosses were just brutalized with most being 300 pips lower. Astonishing.

USD/CAD rocketed higher and stalled out at 1.07 initially and then made a run to 1.0752 before retracing a bit. Chopped sideways for the rest of the afternoon and with employment reports out from the US and Canada tomorrow, I'm sure the PA will be no less spectacular.

My take on this is that if the CAD emply. is better than expected CAD should gain against the buck so prob. a good opportunity to get long at say 1.0650 area give or take a handful of pips. Then with US NFPs up next, I reckon that regardless of how the number comes out it will be USD poisitve. My thinking here is that a worse number means risk aversion, so USD wins. A stronger number could also be good for the greenback as fundamentally that is what should happen and we have been seeing more of this good news from the states = good news for the USD, lately. So I guess there is a 33% chance that the NFPs are better than exected and risk appetite reappears.

Anyone else have thoughts on this? Love to hear them!

Hi, I will stay with my previous thinking as expressed in prior posts. With the credibility of the Euro status as an alternative reserve being questioned. ie:The southern tier countries do not have economies that can support the Euro at these levels, the Euro must fall.
The USD as the reserve currency will rise and the U.S. recovery based upon export growth will falter.
Consumer spending will not pickup to compensate and this will trigger continued pressure on equities. If equities fall, so fall commodity currencies.
Japan is getting clobbered as this post is being made.

No kidding! THe nikkei opened what, 200 point lower than yesterday's close and now sits around 3% lower. Risk aversion seems to still be spilling over into Asia.

Just looking pack at some of the posts, and Foto - thank you! I was trying to remember the other "i" in PIIGS and it's Ireland. I need to edit my post to reflect that is should be PIIGS not just PIGS! Genius!

Yo Venge: Was short BEAVER today(Ka-ching)
wish I had Oz & kiwi shorts also.

NFP tomorrow: US$ wins no matter what the numbers are.

Just finished scalping 5m Euro (short).

CAD Dtf has 200 ema down (teknikly she still in a downtrend) but iffen $ breaks 0790 (my line in the sand) I shall be doing the "FOTO shuffle" ( dance that football players do after a TD). I shall trade my thongs for longs. {Ya don't need beliefs, principals or moral convictions in FX-just making pips is where it 's at}

I hear that son! I was having dinner and just happened to take a glance at the charts and caught the SNB intervening in the EUR/CHF. Managed to ride that gravy train from 1.4698 to 1.4807 in a matter of a couple minute. A happy camper here! Couldn't beleive that I was actually around to catch them doing this for once!

Main reason why to stay out of Friday trading.

Hi MackS10
Finding a timeframe that works for a trader is one of the key elements for success. Many traders think they can scalp or trade 10 minute thru 4 hour bars and end up ahead of the game. This is a difficult thing to accomplish since that person will also most likely be holding a full time job to pay the bills.
It also means they must have a method that generates winners in the face of tremendous market volatility, which for the most part is pretty much random in nature.
If one were to approach trading by asking what their goal for the year was. Do I want a 25% return on equity or 200% return then the desired rate of return might be the guiding force that determines the timeframe to trade.
Simply using end of day data when all of the days positioning has been accomplished would allow a trader to really follow the market and not be trading the days volatility. Clear trends do emerge and these markets are so large that there is plenty of time to think and then act upon what is actually a high probability event.
It does mean developing a lot of patience and the skill to know when to act. When to act large or when to act small. That becomes a money management issue in conjunction with the trading methodology.

Position trading does work once a clear move is recognized.

As to todays events, even if the IMF intervenes in Europe the southern tier nations are not globaly competetive at these levels for the Euro. So the question asked of the Euro nations in their desire to be a reserve currency, are you willing to fall on your own sword?
If spontaneous civilian disobedience sparks in Europe, watch out below Mr. Trichet.

Yo Venge: you must have been a Boy Scout! Glad that you caught the E/Chf { I don't look @ any Swiss pairs (SNB cheeses me off)}
Was out of market during Cad & NFP releases ( another poster gave a compelling chart why). After dust settled, checked BEAVER & chart gave me signs to sell her (made enough to buy a new Toyota, but I was only using a mini-lot)

Krikey! as stated yesterday- good news or bad news-the US$ comes up a winner.

Gonna check COT & see where USDX is ( re: FOTO's prognostication on 80).

Have a great weekend- GO COLTS!

If yer a Hockey fan: "GO LEAFS GO- & TAKE THE ARGOS WITH YOU"!!!!!