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Silent Service Method

  • #7,021
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:34am Feb 4, 2010 9:34am
Quoting egkid
q
Chris I have a query
Do you ever break your rule and increase you risk higher?

No. never. I used to do that. But as soon as you do - that "can't miss" trade, well it does. Trust me on this.
  • #7,022
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:50am Feb 4, 2010 10:50am
Added a little to the position....making it 50,000

Also, locked in a little profit. If I get stopped out - I will look to short again. The NZD is certainly a short now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,023
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:56am Feb 4, 2010 10:56am
Anyone catch any pips from the smallish pinbar from yesterday on the EUR/JPY? Obviously this is not textbook, since the level (126.31?) is not ideal but wow...what a move.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...-04_eurjpy.png
  • #7,024
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:09am Feb 4, 2010 11:09am
Quoting InfinitySL
Anyone catch any pips from the smallish pinbar from yesterday on the EUR/JPY? Obviously this is not textbook, since the level (126.31?) is not ideal but wow...what a move.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...-04_eurjpy.png
Here is my take on this chart: I am watching it now....
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  • #7,025
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:11am Feb 4, 2010 11:11am
Quoting samer960
i am in it with a tight stop loss , it is an opportunist trade , i will be closing it at first sign of reversal

Dear Lord - Gold is down $49 so far today. Samer has just secured his financing for the Burj Dubai Tower.
  • #7,026
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:12am Feb 4, 2010 11:12am
Quoting clockwork71
Added a little to the position....making it 50,000

Also, locked in a little profit. If I get stopped out - I will look to short again. The NZD is certainly a short now.

Kicking myself for not adding at 71.50 or thereabouts. Looking for a retest of 69-70 for another one.

Just topped 500 pips.
  • #7,027
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:13am Feb 4, 2010 11:13am
Quoting clockwork71
Dear Lord - Gold is down $49 so far today. Samer has just secured his financing for the Burj Dubai Tower.
yeah...genius that I am, I shorted it on demo.

  • #7,028
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:28am Feb 4, 2010 11:28am
Quoting Low
yeah...genius that I am, I shorted it on demo.

I didn't have patience to chase profit. I already closed profit at 1074. Thinking now, I should have let the profits run.
  • #7,029
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:42am Feb 4, 2010 11:42am
http://i47.tinypic.com/21bpr1v.png
  • #7,030
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:45am Feb 4, 2010 11:45am
Quoting InfinitySL
Anyone catch any pips from the smallish pinbar from yesterday on the EUR/JPY? Obviously this is not textbook, since the level (126.31?) is not ideal but wow...what a move.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...-04_eurjpy.png
I shorted the mini pin yesterday but didn't feel too good about it. lol My tp was 124.80, now look at it! lol
  • #7,031
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:06pm Feb 4, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting clockwork71
No. never. I used to do that. But as soon as you do - that "can't miss" trade, well it does. Trust me on this.
Thank you
I'm on good profit now , Make devil play with my mind and think greedy,
"Hey egkid high your risk see u was right come on man >>make huge profit don't u wanna be Millionaire "
  • #7,032
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:19pm Feb 4, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting egkid
Thank you
I'm on good profit now , Make devil play with my mind and think greedy,
"Hey egkid high your risk see u was right come on man >>make huge profit don't u wanna be Millionaire "
hahaha ^_^
Number of Days without an idiotic request: 0
  • #7,033
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:20pm Feb 4, 2010 12:20pm
I also got into the Kiwi short, NZDUSD, after having taken several hundred pips off the Kiwi-Yen. Those bearish pin bars on the kiwi cannot be ignored and anytime the thought to close your trade enters your mind, simply think back to those bearish monthly pin bars and instead add to your position, eh?

Looking at gold now, I am thinking this thing is headed for $1,000 before it turns around. At the very least we should get a good bounce there. I am unconvinced, however, that gold will remain above $1,000, mostly because everyone is "gold gold gold, gold all the time, buy gold," which means being long gold is following the crowd, so maybe gold is not all it is being cracked up to be. OTOH, given the debt levels of almost everyone but Canada and Australia, maybe gold will be a good investment vis-a-vis the other fiat currencies. Wait and see I guess.

Bottom line is that this USD bullishness imho will present a golden opportunity, once again but not quite so golden as last Spring, to short the USD loooooooooooong term. Perhaps the Loonie is a good vehicle for that. FWIW, I "see" UCAD forming a long term wedge or descending triangle, at the end of which price should breakout to the bottom, so selling UCAD every time it reaches the top of the formation is my very long term plan.

Contrary/supporting opinions most welcome.
  • #7,034
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:59pm Feb 4, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting calderone
I shorted the mini pin yesterday but didn't feel too good about it. lol My tp was 124.80, now look at it! lol
400 pips in about 2 hours!!!!

I got caught long and wasn't at my screen!! I explain what I am doing with the trade and how I plan on working my way out of it on my blog post. Feel free to check it out.

Looking at it testing the support turned resistance zone between 125 and 124. Once there (my longs will be in profit!!) I will close all positions and watch Price Action to possibly go short.

Any thoughts?
  • #7,035
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:00pm Feb 4, 2010 2:00pm
It looks like several of you have done quite well with the Kiwi/Gold trades. Congrats!
  • #7,036
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:29pm Feb 4, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
Looking at gold now, I am thinking this thing is headed for $1,000 before it turns around. At the very least we should get a good bounce there. I am unconvinced, however, that gold will remain above $1,000, mostly because everyone is "gold gold gold, gold all the time, buy gold,"
Johnny -- I think that's a perfectly rational way of looking at it. It's basically the same principal as the "magazine cover" or "mother-in-law" signal. Not familiar with those? Let me explain:

Well the magazine cover theory states that by the time anything makes the cover on BusinessWeek (or other major magazines) the trend is over / overdone. There are plenty of examples of this, the one that made the biggest impression on me was during my senior year of college there was a cover story of BusinessWeek about the Genius of Jeffrey Skilling, then CEO of Enron. You all know what happen months later. This is not the exact cover, but this one from Feb 2001 proves my point:

http://www.businessweek.com/2001/01_...07/07covdc.jpg

Here's a good one that probably marked the peak of MySpace's popularity:

http://static.businessinsider.com/im...generation.jpg

This one is funny in hindsight, but doesn't exactly prove my point (1996):

http://static.businessinsider.com/im...d-to-apple.jpg
(BTW--Those aren't my fingers!)

Krugman has a great quote: "He whom the God's would seek to destroy, they first put on the cover of BusinessWeek". Love it!

The other indicator I mentioned is the "mother-in-law indicator" and this one is even simpler. Basically (as you can guess from the title) if your mother in law is telling you all about how much money she made on pets.com, that's a good indication is time to get out of your internet stocks. If she's worried about the impending "collapse of the dollar" - it's probably a good idea to close out your EUR/USD long... How many cabbies & mother-in-laws are saying now's a great time to buy gold?

Just some food for thought...Long term, gold is a buy, right now..eh... I don't know...

OK...sorry about my digression here. Back to your regularly scheduled programming!
  • #7,037
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:35pm Feb 4, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Johnny -- I think that's a perfectly rational way of looking at it. It's basically the same principal as the "magazine cover" or "mother-in-law" signal. Not familiar with those? Let me explain:

Well the magazine cover theory states that by the time anything makes the cover on BusinessWeek (or other major magazines) the trend is over / overdone. ...
I love this post...beautifully stated and well documented!

I also watch Jim Cramer (Mad Money) and just about do the opposite of what he is saying...that guy is a gold mine if you DON'T listen to him!
  • #7,038
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:16pm Feb 4, 2010 3:16pm
Ever hear the charts calling you? lol I usually don't have trades open during NFP but I am tempted to play this one. I'm open to thoughts and suggestions.

If this thing closes the way I think it will.
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  • #7,039
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:34pm Feb 4, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting bgin2end
400 pips in about 2 hours!!!!

I got caught long and wasn't at my screen!! I explain what I am doing with the trade and how I plan on working my way out of it on my blog post. Feel free to check it out.

Looking at it testing the support turned resistance zone between 125 and 124. Once there (my longs will be in profit!!) I will close all positions and watch Price Action to possibly go short.

Any thoughts?
Honestly, in my opinion prayer is not a good way to trade. I read you don't put in a stop loss.....why not?
  • #7,040
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:36pm Feb 4, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Johnny -- I think that's a perfectly rational way of looking at it....

Agreed 110%. I hesitated on buying gold, and am glad I did. The $1,000 mark is a major area. I will be more interested down there.

Chris
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