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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,281
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:49am Feb 2, 2010 7:49am
Today is definitely a day for music, rather than trading. For those still trading here's something from me to chill the nerves.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VByvhDdTgsE
  • #13,282
  • Feb 2, 2010 9:52am Feb 2, 2010 9:52am
Quoting piccolo
Dow Jones: Brazil`s Central Bank Buys Dollars At BRL1.844

LOL, this action moved the market by one pip.
Yeah i see them on my news feed buying dollars a few times a week. Really dosent do any thing to the markets lol
  • #13,283
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:17pm Feb 2, 2010 7:17pm
Hi

I think E/U slowly on the way up (or may be for a while) because prices touched s/r in daily chart. any opinion?

Cheers,
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  • #13,284
  • Edited 7:41pm Feb 2, 2010 7:30pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi

I think E/U slowly on the way up (or may be for a while) because prices touched s/r in daily chart. any opinion?

Cheers,
I just went short,

Who Knows?

Just below here coming in 3800 or just a hair below is a important level, aprox.3800 is the 50% retrace of the bull run, while we are not suppose to put weight in the number itself, that's a big level being watched. 3735ish has played both sides in the past.
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  • #13,285
  • Feb 2, 2010 9:07pm Feb 2, 2010 9:07pm
eyes on e/u 3956 for scout entry.
  • #13,286
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:11pm Feb 2, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting auxesis
I just went short,

Who Knows?

Just below here coming in 3800 or just a hair below is a important level, aprox.3800 is the 50% retrace of the bull run, while we are not suppose to put weight in the number itself, that's a big level being watched. 3735ish has played both sides in the past.
myself, looking at the past 3 months, areas of extra interest for feb.
1.4931
4290
3648
  • #13,287
  • Feb 3, 2010 6:34am Feb 3, 2010 6:34am
8h with no new posts, this thread must be entering the twilight zone now.

Looks like we have scared off all the newcomers. (or hopefully they are reading the thread from the beginning and studying on their own)

Time for me to take a break aswell.
  • #13,288
  • Feb 3, 2010 6:40am Feb 3, 2010 6:40am
Quoting piccolo
8h with no new posts, this thread must be entering the twilight zone now.

Looks like we have scared off all the newcomers. (or hopefully they are reading the thread from the beginning and studying on their own)

Time for me to take a break aswell.
Hello Piccolo

I also have to have a break now... It is really hard work for me. The last 2month...
  • #13,289
  • Edited 7:38am Feb 3, 2010 7:00am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting lilpip
myself, looking at the past 3 months, areas of extra interest for feb.
1.4931
4290
3648
a lot of technical points cross around 1.3650/1.37 area. If I would plan a bottom then this would be it.

But it is common to shake off all the weak, overleveraged players. I would not be surprised to see 1.4290 this week after NFP before it goes back down.

For me it seems is best to stick to the small timeframe with 20-30 pip legs up to L3 attacks. Let's see if 1.4027 holds.

A lot can be made and lost in 500pip range. So this is just bla bla based on fumes.

PS - dollar bulls are back in town.
  • #13,290
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:39am Feb 3, 2010 7:39am
A friend of mine who trades a strategy based on the daily ranges showed me this interesting statistics that this week we had the smallest average daily ranges in all dollar pairs since 1999. That's some interesting timing, should we look from the perspective of the "Volcker rule". Let's hope it's all for good. Lots of action in London today. Still, staying on the sidelines for now...

Edit: We have G7 on Saturday - politicians discussing economy on that level usually gives good enough punch on the market.
  • #13,291
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:54am Feb 3, 2010 7:54am
our fren , mr. trend is back ... lets see how far he ll take the ladies
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #13,292
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:18am Feb 3, 2010 11:18am
Happy trading day everyone. Been busy today after no trades on Monday and Tuesday. Nice movement today and happy with my bucket of pips. Hope you all got some too. It's been quiet here this week, and it looks like everyone has scattered. I am taking a few hours off and will be back for Tokyo. Good trading everyone.
  • #13,293
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:24am Feb 3, 2010 11:24am
Quoting piccolo
8h with no new posts, this thread must be entering the twilight zone now.

Looks like we have scared off all the newcomers. (or hopefully they are reading the thread from the beginning and studying on their own)

Time for me to take a break aswell.
Don't worry piccolo! I'm working hard! Trying to eyeball charts, reading AOW, this thread and Steve Nison's book on candlesticks!
  • #13,294
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:23pm Feb 3, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting piscicida
Don't worry piccolo! I'm working hard! Trying to eyeball charts, reading AOW, this thread and Steve Nison's book on candlesticks!
Folks,
I will be taking a break from the thread, too.
Be carefull.
After the day is over it is important to be among those that survived.
Good luck to everyone and keep the faith.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,295
  • Edited 6:58pm Feb 3, 2010 6:33pm | Edited 6:58pm
just acts like she wants to south.
areas of interest for the day, as it stands now I have to say my bias is down from 3929.
1.4009
1.3929
1.3836

eyes open 3872-78
  • #13,296
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:05pm Feb 3, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting auxesis
I just went short,

Who Knows?

Just below here coming in 3800 or just a hair below is a important level, aprox.3800 is the 50% retrace of the bull run, while we are not suppose to put weight in the number itself, that's a big level being watched. 3735ish has played both sides in the past.
Hi Auxesis,

You were right, now is down, hope you 'll get big big pips.

Cheers,
  • #13,297
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:36pm Feb 3, 2010 7:36pm
I have been lurking here for 6 months and reluctantly post this, my first message in the midst of all this apparent gloom.

WHY the gloom on this thread?

I have been playing around with Technical Analysis for 12 years and now at last a Thread that tells it how it is! A thread that has the potential to lead the lost out of the jungle and into profitability.

This week has been my most profitable week. I now win far more often than I lose. I have abandoned all my indicators and Stop Losses. My account is steadily growing thanks to all that I have learnt on this thread and now it appears as if it is dying.

WHY ? I don't get it!
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #13,298
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:53pm Feb 3, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting piphop
I have been lurking here for 6 months and reluctantly post this, my first message in the midst of all this apparent gloom.

WHY the gloom on this thread?

I have been playing around with Technical Analysis for 12 years and now at last a Thread that tells it how it is! A thread that has the potential to lead the lost out of the jungle and into profitability.

This week has been my most profitable week. I now win far more often than I lose. I have abandoned all my indicators and Stop Losses. My account is steadily growing thanks to all that I have...
Good question. I think there has been some confusion about the direction of the forex market structure and liquidity. In my experience, the market operation is normal now and money is being made. Perhaps Volker's proposal to eliminate prop trading at US banks is part of this, but we know now that his proposal has no support in the US Senate or House. So, perhaps some people are using this time to evaluate their trading careers or are just giving up. In time, things may get back to normal but until then, patience is needed. I am waiting to hear from auxesis on his thoughts, and would very much like fti to return.
  • #13,299
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:55pm Feb 3, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Auxesis,

You were right, now is down, hope you 'll get big big pips.

Cheers,
Pete, Yep I did ok today, but something important to understand and remember.

You don't need to be right to make money in the markets.

regards,
  • #13,300
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:03pm Feb 3, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting piphop
I have been lurking here for 6 months and reluctantly post this, my first message in the midst of all this apparent gloom.

WHY the gloom on this thread?

I have been playing around with Technical Analysis for 12 years and now at last a Thread that tells it how it is! A thread that has the potential to lead the lost out of the jungle and into profitability.

This week has been my most profitable week. I now win far more often than I lose. I have abandoned all my indicators and Stop Losses. My account is steadily growing thanks to all that I have...
Piphop,

One of the unique aspects of this thread, if a person would study their way through it as presented, is that it deals with much more than the X's and O's of trading namely the mental aspects required to succeed. Part of that process is identifying self-sabotaging traits and exorcising those personal scorpions, which at times is a lonely self-endeavor. And sometimes people just need a break.

Posters are here for a while and then gone to return again when the timing is right.

Self-study is the key, if you have questions, fire away as there's usually someone around to help.

regards,
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