Indicators for Igroks method

I'm not sure what to say here. I haven't used it myself. The only time Igrok have mention outside/inside bars have been on yearly chart.

Then i guess we stick to the basics

Ok, as promised I included a very basic mechanism to adjust start of day/week/month/year for Main Moves. There is new parameter in settings TimeShift , which can be changed to adjust start of period in full hours vs the one used by broker. For example, if you have GMT+2 broker like Alpari, it starts period at GMT+2 or 2:00 GMT. We need to start period at 17 EST (?) or 21:00 GMT so TimeShift = -5 . Please refer to http://www.2009.worldmarkethours.com/Forex/index.htm for timing your time shift.

OK But still maybe we can do some things progammatically to get help in choosing setups, for example, an important thing in 18.x setups is daily range up to some point in time intraday. I have done some manual backtesting myself on the subject of changes of Main Move during a trading day against the MM at the point of EU session open at 8:00 CET. It would be interesting to compare notes if somebody else has done the same

Hi!

Here is the indi posted in the Mr Igrok's thread before, please check it out and suggest possible improvements.

Any updates on the topic?

Sorry for the late reply!

That indicator makes too much mess on our charts. Marking daily/weekly/monthly/yearly open with something that just paints the given bar would work better.

I wonder if this can be coded on mql language. No problem on TS though.

Any updates on the topic?

Found weekly and monthly open line indicator .... hope they will be useful ...

Labais53,

You have selected right system to understand and code it. It is discretionary and will lay a good foundation for your trading career. I am a retired business consultant and I use indicators to get information instantly so that I could act speedily. I have found forex as a good source of regular income, If the trader has patience, willing to learn from experienced traders and develop own feel for the trades, then it's not difficult to make regular income.

You don't seem to be carrying any baggage and that's why I am explaining you things I have learned in more than 10 years of my offline/online trading.
If you work diligently and with clear focus you will succeed. The work involves a lot of patience, control on the urge to trade compulsively and spending a lot of time on observations during the open time of any session or all the three sessions.

The MT4 charts doesn't provide for 8 hours. You have to treat each session as a different market. So if Asian session goes up, European session takes different turn and US behaves differently. When you are developing any indicator think of 8 hour time session. Custom Candles provide 8 hour candle shadow/rectangular. Please develop an indicator which gives the idea of each session average range based on eight hours of trading. And hi-low and open-close. If you can put fibo levels on that candle then the big candle will become a trading pad to make trade entry, stoploss, takeprofit levels.

If you think in terms of session , adr, open-close compared with high-low, drawdowns, money management for high/low probable trade and how the big traders move, you can trade without fear. Drawdown chart is a worst-case scenario I have painted and how even a trader has come out of it because of money management.

You have to understand the big traders movements. They will buy rapidly in one or two weeks and then sell/distribute whatever they have bought in next few weeks. So if they have bought 1200 to 1300 pips in two rapid weekly forays they have to sell all this in order to make profit and at the same time keep acquiring at lower prices, they have to distribute in such a way that the market is not depressed and remains orderly. You have to study the month-end pattern, the seasonal pattern like summer months, new year holidays period etc.


Just observe the market and try to develop indicators which can give idea as to where the market makers/big players (liquidity providers) are moving. If you can catch the speed of pip balls (amplitude) they throw through an indicator it will be quite useful for day trading.

The big players tactics are well documented. Bull/bear traps are laid by market makers, OTC currency option dealers, swinging trades to engage speculators (trend breakouts are thus established) and engage in range trading to meet the demands of regular business of selling/buying currencies to actual users like corporations and travellers. 10% trending and 90% range trading is the norm.

Big players like hedge funds have their own accounting to do. They have matrices to measure performance of their turnover. So they will have to take periodical profits. Normally the game starts in the first week of the month and then ends during the last Friday of the month. For instance you must have noticed just on Wednesday the market was losing from Open to Close and the last day of trading changed the picture.

Now they will establish new trading zone starting Monday. Summer is over the big boys are back on their desks full of energy. July and August are among the months when big moves happen. Initially a big move will be established. It's like marking the boundaries for the new game to start. Within a couple of days say another high of 800-1300 pips will be established and once the breakout happens for the next two months range trading will happen. Traps will be laid and the speculators will be led to believe that the zones are going to be breached soon. Market noise is used by liquidity providers to unleash bears and bulls, whose reins they control and if necessary when it doesn't suit the market makers or liquidity dries up they intervene which you can feel when market moves in just one direction like a tidal wave.

Attached are three charts where I give some ideas for making improvements to your indicator.

Another chart showing drawdown and variation between open-close and high-low pips.

Labais53,

Uploaded wrong chart. New one with suggestion for session indic is attached.

Labais53, contact me by PM when you logon. Cheers.

Hi all!

My apologies to all (and especially to Belekas) for not being active in the thread and not answering to PMs. I was on holidays with my spouse and next week heading to a decent Empirical Finance workshop. Scientists still reject short-term predictability of asset prices but they handle very clever math (useful for new indis ) and it is always good to listen carefully to your opponent I am interested in the topic of Regime Switching - when a trend starts, just get in

Big thanks to pj9100, I will certainly look into it. Session statistics should not be a problem if painted in the corner.

In actual trading using ADR setups I had been more than once frustrated by effect known in science as volatility clustering. In plain English you might have 200+ pip ADRs and less than 100 pip ADRs on EURUSD. You never know The good thing is that they tend to cluster, bad thing that there is no indi or system to deal with it for intraday trading. Maybe pj9100 could give me some ideas?

Labaise53,

Regime switching is something very interesting topic. I am glad you have raised the issue of volatility clustering which is part of the tactics market makers tech teams employ. The tech team job is to keep the markets in order and at the same time make money for the market makers.

Market makers are big businesses looking for pure profit. Media and analysts are there to create market noise, look for sensationalism and drama, and promote the analysts.

Big research institutions/think tanks (covertly financed by big business) are there to protect the interests of the big businesses, and put out research findings to influence the public opinion or veer them around to a point of view where the big businesses ultimately stand to gain.

Another set of research institutions are there who influence policy making in favour of big businesses.

Coming to forex market makers' operations, most of it is done covertly because currency is a very sensitive matter. OTC cover provides excellent opportunities for big businesses to play a game where the opponent is already weak. They have two to three so-called research institutions whose job is to keep a tab on the flow of OTC currency options and spot fx and devise appropriate strategies on an ongoing minute- to- minute basis.

Market makers are very clear in their business-like approach.

(a) They will not upset the US Government. Otherwise anytime IMF can act as a global clearer . Why do you really need so much volatility in the currency market? If China, Brazil, India and other countries are upset it is because of this reason.

(b) They will keep the market orderly because after all the currency exchange is meant for purposes other than speculation. The moment the government realises this purpose is being overlooked, market makers will be out. Some kind of a regulatory body will be established to keep the markets orderly. May be one of the wings of IMF.

You can check the net change every month (open to close prices) in G-7 currencies, it will be quite orderly. Just a simple example. One/two/day up three down/four/five day up and at the end of the week/2 weeks/3 week/4 weeks the levels are there where the market had earlier opened.

OTC speculation gets market makers big profits and most of it is not their doing. Hedge funds/investment banks are the challengers. The ongoing fight is between the hedge funds and the market makers. Hedge funds created the derivative monsters in all the money-related markets.

Hedge funds tech teams have devised strategies based on interplay of G-7 currencies with commodity currencies. You can watch when G-7 currencies are moving sideways commodity currencies become active . Cross-currency rates are purely for speculation. It is the ultimate forex casino.

Carry trade became big when hedge funds jumped in to take advantage of interest-rate differentials. Market makers were delighted. The huge volume generated good profits for them. But sooner they had to cope with the huge volatility caused by hedge funds tactics. Once in a while they used to send huge spikes of 3000-4000 pips both ways in a matter of five minutes by doing fake buying/selling operations to active various stops and wipe out margins as a warning to hedge funds. And the retail traders on this forum thought the retail fx operators were doing this. No they were not doing this. What power have these small fry Interbankfx or Oanda got on the currency market? They are mere brokers.

Carry trade (OTC options) ultimately grew to such an extent that it would have either resulted in huge losses for market makers or would have invited government wrath. Market makers were left with no choice. Kill the monster. So started the move to bring the carry traders to their knees. The US dollar strengthened in such a drastic way in July that for sometime the market went haywire, much against the intentions of the market makers. But they were left with no choice. Either perish or upset the market. It was a matter of survival. .

By making the market so volatile, the market makers were forced to take a gamble. Now they know how far the market can be pushed and whether it is acceptable to policy makers and the traders as well.

The fact that the US government has accepted this kind of volatility might have encouraged the market makers to become aggressive and we are seeing it again or is it hedge funds back again with new tricks to milk the currency cow. We retail traders have no means to know this.

We are left with our simple MT4 indicators, observations skills, money management techniques, support and resistance lines and our capacity to withstand drawdown to chart our course of action. That's all. And they are not inadequate.

We need to know the intentions the market makers as well as big hedge funds have on a daily basis and try to make profit by remaining at the right side. How do we do? Only by taking a look at a big picture on a day-to-day basis with the help of reporting tools (indicators) which help us determine patterns which are regular but we feel are random.

An intelligent person like you, who understands volatility clustering and is not really into oscillators, would be able to decipher their movements. It needs hard work. Just observe the market and don't get involved in scalping or daytrading unless you have established the patterns the market makers will move in.

At the moment market makers are making the moves and not the hedge funds. Hedge funds are following them and trying to benefit. Carry trade is on the deathbed. Whether it will revive or not remains to be seen. There is hardly any interest differentials. Yet attempts - however feeble they may be - will be made.

I have already talked about the limits the market makers can breach. They can't push up market by 1000 pips in a day and bring it down by same amount of pips in a day. They have to keep the market orderly.

The market tactics are to create uncertainty, fear (panic), euphoria (greed) and big market noise (data releases and media analysis) for ordinary souls like us so that we make no decision at all.

The usual tactic is to create trading zones (range trading) and use pre- opening/opening/closing hours of each session: Sydney, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt and US to make moves and keep the market guessing all the time. It is random yet have a decipherable pattern.

Trading zones are shifted up and down in certain periods which again can be estimated with the help of indicators devised to study movements during specific hours/days/weeks/months/quarters/6months/yearly.

Trading zones have gap times which are used to take profits as well as act as stop hunts. We can see an 24 hour session dissected by five gap times which can be stop hunts/profit-taking depending on who is doing it.

Volatility clustering is their major tool to keep traders guessing. One hour/session/week/month up and second hour/session/week/month down - not necessarily in same order. If you can estimate it, your probabilities of making more profit and less profit go up.

Cross-currency trading is a different game and it has its own timing and rules and those don't clash with the majors ones all the time.

Effectively currency trading has been divided into several markets (clusters) and the market makers have all the data about the buy/sell spot and buy/sell OTC options which retail traders don't have. Yet it will not be difficult to establish patterns if we keep away from market noise and instead just focus on big picture.

A study of Sniper trading workbook by George Angell will give real-life perspective of how market makers (inside traders) operate in each and every money-related market. This was valid in the past, is now and will remain in future. Nothing will change except tactics and weapons.


PJ

pj9100,
Thanks for your insights here & in other threads.
I hope u'll be able to open your intended thread soon, so u will be able to share further other insights.

Finally I managed to find a time to make some small improvements to the indi:
- added yesterdays main move - needs testing
- added ability to switch off all info in the comment (upper left) part

ignore previous file, sorry

How are the things going around for you? Haven't seen you online lately.

Hi! My first post with respect to Igrok and all forum members

Another simple indicator. Coded not by me.