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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,821
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:27pm Jan 28, 2010 10:27pm
Im short at 680 with my target at 610
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #2,822
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:50pm Jan 28, 2010 10:50pm
Yo Venge: where you been?

I am thinking bullish - longer term.
D chart has down TL Nov 3-Jan 29, but,the upper BB is 0730; STO o/b ( flat-bulls in control & > signal) macd >H2O & RSI @75.
W chart is up.

Loonie needs to be weaker for export to Yanks. 85% goes there ( so I've read).

May be ready for dip-but you are wise re: awaiting news this a.m.

I expect USD to get stronger next couple of months,primarily as a result of risk-aversion.
  • #2,823
  • Jan 28, 2010 10:54pm Jan 28, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting defariak
Im short at 680 with my target at 610
Countertrend on 4H looks maybe some pips. Hope so for you.
  • #2,824
  • Jan 28, 2010 11:31pm Jan 28, 2010 11:31pm
Hey Scare! Been busy at work, etc. See you've been busy here.

I agree with the fact risk aversion appears to have risen from the dead and USD is looking like the place to park your cash, at least this week... Overall I'm feeling pretty neutral on this pair with a slight slant towards bullish. Overall, USD/CAD is still well with medium term range, so I feel 1.07s should be good spot to play the range...Although, like you said - bullish - so a break of 1.0750 could open open the 1.0870 high for a visit.

But as you know, with GDP out tmrw., this pair is no place to be before hand.

What's your feeling on the GDP numbers? I think both CAD number will be around exp. 0.2-0.3 and I feel US is gonna miss the f'cast 4.5%...maybe spectacularily so. Risk aversion day tmrw. is my bet, gentlemen's bet, though!
  • #2,825
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:04am Jan 29, 2010 12:04am
Quoting foto
Hi Scarecru, thanks for the heads up. Been busy thinking about what the heck is going on.
My only take on last nights State of the Union Message, was first I had to exit the room so as not to throw up. Secondly the White House is scrambling to come up with a course of action that might actualy work, as they are publicaly acknowledging via the Mouth (B.O.) that they really are out of touch with reality, and the economy is worse then they expected.
I do think politics is an important composite of how money moves around the globe. So it is a factor...
Yo FOTO: Of course, he had to scramble for a means to express his "dreams' for the masses. Crap- his numbers were dropping-faster than unemployment was rising.
When I see mass media coverage re: any event------I take the opposite approach.
Last month, the media (TV,radio&press) INUNDATED the masses to take the "swine flu" vaccination. LINEUPS beyond belief. Now they are shipping the stuff to Mexico.( they manufactured a shortage; now there is anoverage).

Same with BO: saying that they are out of touch with reality.
The little guy says: " wow he is my man, cuz he understands me.He cares."
IMHO: the more you see/read about what the gov't is doing- the wrse the economy.
BUT international-better for the USD
  • #2,826
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:04am Jan 29, 2010 12:04am
Quoting Scarecru
Countertrend on 4H looks maybe some pips. Hope so for you.
Im hoping
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #2,827
  • Edited 5:10pm Jan 29, 2010 4:51pm | Edited 5:10pm
Wish I had a great crystal ball to see the future, but the USD has been looking pretty directional now.

I have been building into a longer term position to hold onto and todays market sort of strengthens that outlook.
Those hard breaks in the Euro, Aussie, and the GBP would suggest there is some more to go on a long USD
  • #2,828
  • Jan 30, 2010 6:24pm Jan 30, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting defariak
Im hoping
Did you get some on yer short?

Comms are decreasing their short positions
.
CAD futures chart: MacD down (<sis & H2O line) 10sma x'd down 25 tells me to be US/CAD pair bull. However, STO CAD futures o/s (may be rally?)

I'm hoping ( but looking @ teks)
  • #2,829
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:42pm Jan 30, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting foto
Wish I had a great crystal ball to see the future, but the USD has been looking pretty directional now.

I have been building into a longer term position to hold onto and todays market sort of strengthens that outlook.
Those hard breaks in the Euro, Aussie, and the GBP would suggest there is some more to go on a long USD
YO, FOTO; to paraphrase Jack Nicholson- " You want the future? You can't handle the future!"

I put an M us/cad chart on: Aug 2000 til present shows down trend.
Fibs on rally ( Dec07low to Mar09hi) shows present $ approx 62% level.
M STO is O/S & rising.
Possible buy"dip in uptrend" scenario????

W tf: STO up MacD up & > signal RSI > 50
As you mentioned; E OZ & NZ have taken their lumps wrt USD.
My plan this week- smaller tfs with smaller targets for profit. General M-Tf bias : bullish USD.
As you so eloquently mentioned: the grasshoppers are freezing!
Ants collect crumbs & build up their storerooms for survival.
I shall take my 50-300 pips/wk profit.

The M chart (to me only) suggested that there may be the 2nd leg down in my RRSP forthcoming.
Sam's don't layoff if good times are acomin'
  • #2,830
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:53am Jan 31, 2010 10:53am
im not sure whether i want to short the dollar in any way after strong GDP data. take a seat back, short EURUSD on a retrace instead
  • #2,831
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:21pm Jan 31, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting Scarecru
Did you get some on yer short?

Comms are decreasing their short positions
.
CAD futures chart: MacD down (<sis & H2O line) 10sma x'd down 25 tells me to be US/CAD pair bull. However, STO CAD futures o/s (may be rally?)

I'm hoping ( but looking @ teks)
oh yeah, i got my pips and got out
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #2,832
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:31pm Jan 31, 2010 4:31pm
what's up at 1.07
  • #2,833
  • Edited 5:08pm Jan 31, 2010 4:55pm | Edited 5:08pm
About trading reactions.
There was a statement in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator from a fellow known as Old Turkey. " I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I would lose my job cut in old Turkey. I said I'd lose my position ........you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford: not even John D. Rockefeller"
As to time frames, take a look at the monthly/30 year chart of the dollar index
  • #2,834
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:51pm Jan 31, 2010 5:51pm
i went short , but i dont know what my tp is. maybe down to 1.04 before it goes up
  • #2,835
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:19pm Jan 31, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting TGpop
im not sure whether i want to short the dollar in any way after strong GDP data. take a seat back, short EURUSD on a retrace instead
Yo TGpop: nice to read you.
I with you tonight re: short USD.
Last week, thought that I would do a scalp (countertrend E/US trade). This trade made my week pip count -42
I shall not countertrend ( I hope)
  • #2,836
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:45pm Jan 31, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting foto
About trading reactions.
There was a statement in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator from a fellow known as Old Turkey. " I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I would lose my job cut in old Turkey. I said I'd lose my position ........you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford: not even John D. Rockefeller"
As to time frames, take a look at the monthly/30 year chart of the dollar index
Yo FOTO: unable to do 30Y/M chart. Best I could do was 15Y(suggests double top approx 90)
Iffen you were a betting person; would you take parity before the Leafs win the Stanley Cup? That be my position!
  • #2,837
  • Jan 31, 2010 11:43pm Jan 31, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting Scarecru
Yo TGpop: nice to read you.
I with you tonight re: short USD.
Last week, thought that I would do a scalp (countertrend E/US trade). This trade made my week pip count -42
I shall not countertrend ( I hope)
Well I'm or was with you both. Got short at 1.0680 was happy to see the USD drop down to the 60s and then it came right back up fairly quickly...Watched the PA for a bit and didn't like what I saw so I got out with a 1.4 pip profit! haha Well at least I covered my comm. and have some left over for lunch tomorrow. I think we are going to see a retest of the 1.0750 and maybe even a spurt to the Nov. 9th high at 1.0780. Will look at selling a filure up there...

If I was more ballsy I'd just go long USD/CAD, but I think with nary a retracement of this run up that a bit of a pullback is due...maybe to 1.0625 or 1.0570/80 area? Therefore I feel a short play is best risk reward, but remain patient to look for the right moment...Hell, I might even have to revise my short a failure to the 1.0870 high if this think continues to just rocket skyward.

Have fun!
  • #2,838
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:56pm Feb 1, 2010 5:56pm
Hi,
With the 30 yr time frame you might interpret that the USD Index is near the bottom of virtualy all the major lows that it has ever been at.
Under Regan it went as high as 151 + before cresting. {so a taxpayer revolt is USD bullish as it has been in the past}

Whether or not the Loonie hits parity will probably be determined by equities. Todays ISM manufacturing may not be sustainable as U.S. Exports have probably peaked due to the very weak USD.

Europe is far from being able to support the current level of the Euro.
The countries of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and most likely Ireland
will fracture politicaly unless there is a huge change in unemployment.
For the Euro to be sustainable it must be a benefit for a nation to use the Euro as its' currency. 19.5% unemployment in Spain is not supportive of a beneficial result. These are old countries and you can be sure that the natives are indeed restless. Pronouncements from Brussels will not calm people who are unable to feed their own family. They will surely point fingers including the middle one at the bureaucrats of the E.U.

As the Euro tanks then the USD must rise resulting in a crackup in U.S. equities since exports will weaken from the U.S. An export led recovery in the U.S. will take more then words going forward.
If equities crack then the loonie and other commodity currencies will bust as well.

We are at the juncture point now. I am holding to my bullish position trades for the USD and only time will prove the wisdom of that opinion.
  • #2,839
  • Feb 1, 2010 6:10pm Feb 1, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting foto
only time will prove the wisdom of that opinion.
Amen to that!
  • #2,840
  • Feb 1, 2010 6:57pm Feb 1, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting Vengeance
I think we are going to see a retest of the 1.0750 and maybe even a spurt to the Nov. 9th high at 1.0780. Will look at selling a filure up there...

If I was more ballsy I'd just go long USD/CAD, but I think with nary a retracement of this run up that a bit of a pullback is due...maybe to 1.0625 or 1.0570/80 area? Therefore I feel a short play is best risk reward, but remain patient to look for the right moment...Hell, I might even have to revise my short a failure to the 1.0870 high if this think continues to just rocket skyward.

Have fun!...
Yo Venge: re: " nary a retrace....pullback due"; On D tf; appears -ve div on STO. -ve MacD histo div & RSI . 50 ( curling down).
I am looking @ shorting on Hr & 15 min tf's. 20 tpp's (like good sex- in & out quickly)
Big picture; 0750 & 0850 as resistance.
Gonna re-read FOTO's latest, there are always gems in those posts!
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