TSF Mavin

TSF Mavin posted a fully qualified signal bar at the close of the 1600 GMT bar. The next bar managed to exceed the signal bar by one pip allowing us to open or fill our trades and so we are in the market waiting for a follow through to take profit or stoploss.

Since entering price retreated a fair distance and returned to set new highs but has retreated again. The area of rejection represents a range of resistance, beyond which, should price succeed in clearing it, there is another line of resistance right in the neighborhood of our take profit...

Shucks. I missed it. I didn't even see it till you pointed it out....

Actually, you haven't really missed it. It is still under the entry point. So, if I was you I would at least put the order in at the proper level and wait for the price to move back up and get you in (or not). More aggressive? Take a market entry right here. Shoot for 30 or extend up to where the indicated take profit would normally be. Good luck! I think if we finish in this area we will have a bullish pinbar form for the day. And that bodes well for a bull move.

So, we were cruising along ready to move and take our profit, and at 3:30am the Aussie Bank says they are holding their interest rate when the market was expecting a cut... at least that's how it looks to me... Anyway, result -- we dive hard. Who knew? The Aussie is driving the dragon? Really?

We then see a fight back, but then the Euro market opens and folks pile on again. Things the make you say, hmmmm.

Now we get a fully valid bear signal. Right before the drop we got a bull signal, but the entry never confirmed on my IBFX feed, so we dodged that bullet. But we are pretty far from the Sell orders too. So the question is, is the Euro open a head fake, or will London follow suit and make us drop? Do note that the Euro open drop was less than the previous drop. What will London do?

Drama, drama, drama... Oh well. Review the extended rules from yesterdays post and you'll know what to do. But in this case I say watch for that original bull order, just above the day's high.... Maybe we should keep that one in mind. Because so far, I don't know how much longer that Aussie move is going to push the beast around. It already confirmed a break out off the previous day's pinbar. The chances are pretty high that we'll go higher at some point. How far and when -- that's a guessing game. You all can play if you want. Me, I'll just wait and watch.

So, London bit too. Bit hard. Hard enough for that trade to be a winner. Good job to those who stick to the rules. Now, shall I remind you that every market so far has bounced back up after the initial shock of the news. So maybe we go up from here? Maybe... And then the US market will open... will they run screaming south too? Time will tell. Time will tell.

Hi Qman:

Outstanding analysis and observations. I've added 150 level on ema20 rule to reduce tp or avoid entry if trade needs to go past it.

Keep up your excellent work.

Steve

Stevewide, thanks for the feedback.

So what happened through the day. Well after the win from the London open price couldn't really commit, and somewhat predictably meanderd up. But unfortunately a fully qualified even bar formed at about 1400 GMT. That resulted in a filled order sometime in the 1530 GMT bar, which ultimately was closed by means of a reversed fully qualified bullish bar at 2030 GMT. So at the open of the 2100 bar we would close for a loss of around 18 pips. If you were slow to pounce on that close you might have done much better as price trailed down a bit -- but staying in to find break even would not have been advised. Take your 18 pip lump sandwich. Cause at 2200 GMT we even get a price improvement bar, and the next thing you know we've won 30 pips on the Tokyo open. Sweet!

Now we get a new day, and a fully qualified bar formed at 0300 GMT, and filled right away... Actually the close of the signal bar was right near the high, so I had to put on a market order after the new bar qualified by exceeding the signal bar by 1 pip... So I'm in on this one at 144.64, which is a pip higher than I want to be, but I'm not complaining. Price advanced a bit from there, and has pulled back a bit in the current bar, which is just closing... except it is up again on the close. So we are in no man's land at the moment, waiting for a follow through. I've set my take profit at the 1 pip higher level because in this case we'd hit that with room to spare before the big round 145.00 level... but if I'm available I'll be watching.

Good luck to all.

TSF Mavin posted another winning trade sometime during the 0600 GMT bar. Not sure what's next. Wait and see....

This is just me talking. Believe me, I make plenty of mistakes in my analysis, okay, so don't start thinking of me as some kind of guru. So, with that caveat, let me hazzard these comments...

European markets have opened. They took the edge off the current advance. But notice that the current bar has (so far) been unable to pass the bottom of the last bullish bar (0600). To me that says those folks are not ready to take this beast anywhere. They are waiting for London to speak. But often they try to manipulate things some by going against an obvious trend. I think they manage to fool folks occasionally to think there is a reversal so that they can enter with the trend at a lower price. Is that always the case - NO. But reluctance to make a new high or low shows there is no real leadership, and so you can read into that whatever you want on any given day.

Now there is news due in Great Britan at 0930 today that is supposedly of some importance (check the FF Calendar). I don't think London will be interested in making too much of a move at the open either... THAT IS A GUESS.... Nothing in the charts to suggest it. But that is what I expect to see. If it does something else, it doesn't much matter to me because I try to trade on my blind guesses as little as possible. NOTE AGAIN, there is nothing in the charts to suggest this. All the same, if I was wrong, and it shot one way or the other, I wouldn't trust that move either. Just too many people trying to jocky in around significant news. It's really hard to tell what is real and not. I don't think we'll get another signal before that news tonight, but stranger things have happened. But here is what I'd watch for. If the news comes in at or very close to expectations... best to ignore the move -- 99 times out of 100 whatever way it moves, its going to come back to an average starting place. If it comes out way beyond (either way) expectations, the move might have some staying power, but let the Mavin try to pick a safe entry for you. If the entering trend was bullish and the news concurs, you might miss a big move... don't worry, more trades tomorrow. If the news reverses the market, well if it has some legs you might just get a valid signal down the road a bit. And if it gets you in at the wrong spot... well... I'm sorry. But you know, over the long run, the Mavin is going to try to make it up to you. Just don't risk more than you can afford to lose.

Good night all.

Not too much happened overnight (for me). I see a Mavin signal bar post with the close of the 0930 GMT bullish bar. Orders would have filled on the next bar, with the market largely marking time after that. Bigger bullish bar completed at 1300. I woke up around 1325 GMT. Price came back down to a point that made it worth my while to jump in about 15 minutes ago. So nice of the market to wait for me. So I'm in on this trade, that hasn't managed to get beyond a 15 pip profit, and is hovering around a little negative, but nothing to worry about so far.

I do worry a bit about the lack of motivation in the market. I would expect this kind of movement on, say, Thursday as the market jockys for position ahead of the US Employment numbers this Friday.... It makes me think "What am I missing". Maybe I should stop typing and look around some more. But the reality is, it doesn't much matter. Right? The method is the method. Am I smarter than the method? Not usually.

Actually, this bar close could be a reversal signal...

Reversal, but just barely....

I hate it when that happens. But umm, here is the human side coming through. Mechanically we are out at the open of the 1400 bar and have positions waiting just below the previous bar. But me, as a thinking body, I decide that the market isn't going anywhere, so I don't close my trade right away... Price has a fair distance to go to trigger the new trade. I was originally willing to risk 70 pips to lose. So, I say, move my stoploss to the bottom of the signal bar, to get me out before the reversed orders I have put in. Then I watch and close half of my position with a 10 pip trailing stop, which you have to do manually. That got me half out at +1 pip, and I have a half position remaining to decide what I want to do. But the stoploss is still in place. Price is moving favorably for the original open position. We'll wait and see. If I get positive I might trail manually 10 pips until it reaches 15 again and then let the software follow at 15 from that point... Almost certain we won't make take profit before the wolves come eat us up. There is a possibility that the sell stop could wedge in a price improvement up here, which might be interesting too. Keep watching.

For those that are working this mechanically and are already out -- I salute you. I have other buy trades on that I am reluctant to close, and that is weighing on my decision making. Still, it isn't often that we see this method release you with only a partial loss, and I would be happy with that. You certainly have nothing to get worked up about. Given the winning percentage of this method you will be making money over time (I believe), and a partial loss beats a full loss any day.

I actually would prefer to be on the sidelines right now. So if you are, congrats.

My positions are all closed now. I closed my Mavin position at about break even. I have no idea why price spiked after that, but it went far enough to take profit on my other position, and so I'm now safely on the sideline. Market is pulling back since then but it could give us a buy signal at any time in the current configuration. Just make sure you don't buy (if it comes) closer than 20 pips from the current daily high, and be real comfy if you are able to buy 36 pips or more below the high, cause I don't know if this market has the will to put in a higher high today... But if the Mavin signals, I'd take it... And that would reverse the early signal and pending orders we should still have standing. Keep watching, because this puppy may come roaring back and fill your orders (and then hopefully continue on). I'd stick around and play through the day if I could babysit my positions, but my J-O-B is demanding my attendance and I don't trust putting on positions I can't monitor today. If more volatility returns I hope I'm in a position to notice. Otherwise I might be done until the late night GMT times.

Pips to all.

Just a quick note. None of these seemingly qualifying bullish bars that have formed are fully qualified. I don't think anybody could have gotten a fill off of them where your entry would have been 20 pips or more from the high of the day. Keep watching though. You never know for sure. I think that short trade should still be sitting out there... Getting lonely. But like I said, you just never know.

thanks Qman.

Results of backtesting using current rules(template of chart with data attached). All news, holidays ignored. anayalysis includes every trade found regardless:

From first week in November, 2009 to date:

116 wins
21losses ............85% win rate

.........3,480 pips won
...less 1,470 pips lost
equals 2,010 pips gained starting November , 2009 todate, or 70% win rate based on pips.

Fantastic. Thanks much. At work. More comments later. One question. How many trading days? Thanks Stevewide

since first week in November, 2009; will update my previous post.

I assume you did not do trades xmas week or new years week. I'll count the actual days when I get home.

I couldn't figure out why the market was so sluggish yesterday and didn't follow through looking over things. Then it hit me -- TODAY IS THE MPC MINUTES DAY. It is supposed to be a do not trade day today. And I should have seen that coming after the London open yesterday, as in, I think trading the day before is probably okay, but not after 0800. Refining the rules... I had not considered this much until you pointed out how well the system works through the rest of the trading day. (Thanks again!). I don't have analysis to back the next statement up, but it is my gut feeling that it is probably okay to trade today a couple hours after the announcement, but I'll have to take a look over a few months to be sure.

Trading before... pretty iffy I think. If before, better be done before 0500 or 0600. But if you consider how "stupid" the market has been about where it is going since yesterday (stumbles like a drunken sailor), I don't think you want to take trades today until sometime after those minutes get digested... and if there is a wicked move... it could take awhile for normalcy returns. The method works well when the market is in a "normal" rythm, I think you'd agree. Pre news doldrums and pre and post news spikes get tricky, and not just for this method. So beware all. But lets see what happens. If I skip the morning and sleep I'll be looking things over around 1400 GMT after I get up, and we'll see if things look more favorable then.

Okay, assuming no trading the last 2 weeks of the year... And presuming your numbers don't include GBP Rate announcement and meeting minutes days... Up through yesterday there were 52 trading days. So your numbers break down to:

2.63 Trades per day
2.23 Wins per day
0.40 Losses per day
38.65 Net Pips Per Day

The other critical thing I'd want to know is what is the maximum number of consecutive losers... And if you have the time, what was the worst run you saw -- maybe 4 losses in 6 days? Something like that. It helps in trying to figure maximum money management percentage. I wouldn't want to set that on just this short period, but it would be interesting to know.

There's so much red news being released today it is no wonder the market is doing nothing.

Thanks again.