Aox's 2010 Journal

I've decided to begin anew with a much more organized record of my trades and thoughts on the sytem I use. Though I use several channel based ways of looking at the market, I will limit my posted charts to bollinger bands, moving averages, S&R lines (fibs,trendlines & horizontal) all revolving aroung price action analysis through the use of candlesticks.

I will also for 2010 and beyond expand my selection of currency pairs that I'd like to trade to include the gbp/usd. Growth in any endeavor must be encouraged and documented and I hope that with a little humility and luck that my trading knowledge will continue to expand and success will become as consistant as possible.

My 200 ema of course shows a downtrend on most st timeframes.But I decided to take this long trade based on the 5 minute hammer and the yellow extension fib based on the daily retracement between the first leg of the downtrend and this current extension of the move. Price testing the fib as support and the 20 sma combined with most recent 5 minute fib corelation prompted me to open a 2nd position. My Target on both positions is the 121.4 extension of the 5 minute fib.

Entry at 139253 exit at 139489 2nd position entry at 139361 exit at 139514 in proximity of the 121.4 fib
38 pips

This is strictly a scalp trade that I saw as a oppotunity to grab at least 20 pips.

I could not escape reality and had to go with the flow. The $ is on a run and though it may find support on the weekly 200 ema. For today the U.S gpa report helped push the $ higher.

I took two positions:
1st in at 139399 out at 138847
2nd in at 139649 out at 138857
Total pip gain of 134

All things moves in cycles. Nothing is more accurate especially in the markets. Knowing what is to come is best prepared for when one learns from what has already past.

Hindsight too often is used by some as a way of showing others their ability to trade using charts whose price action has already happened and much to easily analyzed. That is not what I'm talking about in this case. On a more personal level, let's say that we've chosen our strategy and now it is time to become proficient with it and intuitive in it. One way of doing this is to study as many charts as possible while only focusing on the sections of the chart that contain picture perfect patterns and triggers that would cause us to initiate an entry based on that respective strategy. I say picture perfect because that afterall is the benefit of hingsight. Concentrate on focusing on the really good examples of the system we use.

Taking these mental snapshots and then retreat to a place of silence and comfort to reflect on these mini trading stills as clearly as possible in our minds and what they look like, including instructions on how to react to these can only help us when we see them play out in live trading. Over a short time these examples of price action will be firmly placed into the subconscoius memory. If I hold true to my strategy I will see these set-ups again over time. The prepared mind need not hesitate. The patterns will be remembered and the correct action becomes almost instinctive. This in my opinion is the great advantage of hindsight. Atheletes do this all the time. Use these examples of the past to prepare for future market action. It seems uncanny how well we can react to future situations by placing these mental snapshots into our minds as memories. They need not be a trade I've taken, only price action that fits my system that I can place into my mental action plan to act off of in the future.

Currency pairs have tendencies that are unique to themselves. Timeframes have the same. By placing past price action mated with our unique reaction to them into our minds will over time open the door to the wonderful world of foresight.

Do not be too timid and squeamish about your actions. All life is an experiment- Ralph Waldo Emerson

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It's the start of a new week in the markets. Hopefully this long trade against the mid term trend is profitable. I have placed tight stops because it's either going to work or it isn't. Price action is sitting atop the 200 ema on the weekly chart as shown in the yellow line on the chart. The tan line just below the 138 extension is a down sloping trenline off of the 1 hr chart. A break and retest as support my prompt another entry.

As for now my stops are in place and I'll let it play out.

Price action hit the down sloping trendline and is in close proximity to the 200 ema on the 5 minute chart and the MA is angled steep at around 4 o'clock. Slim chance that a close above that would occur without a substantial pullback first. So I'll take what I've got and wait.

Entry one at 138713 closed at 138834
Entry two at 138713 closed at 138834
Total pip gain 29

Buy 139255 exit at 139100 15 pip loss
Sell 139109 exit at 139147 4 pip loss
Buy 139131 exit at 139101 3 pip loss
Buy 139111 exit at 139110 1 pip loss

I purchased $ strength across these pairs based on several factors.

Eur/$ - Shorted this pair based on news out of the Euro zone that countries such as Greece, Spain, Etc. are looking at soverign debt issues.

Eur/$ - Entered with 1 stan lot at 138893 initial stop at 139070 closed trade at 137054 -
183 pip gain

$/Cad - Commodities in this case oil took a hit based on the overall $ strength. Entered with 1 stan lot at 106136 move stop to 107150 Closed trade at 107249- 103 pip gain

Aud/$- Another Commodity currency (Gold) gave way to $ strength.
Entered with 1 stan lot at .88133 stop at .88270 closed trade at .86556-
157 pip gain

Eur/Yen- Placed a buy trade that did not work out at all.
Entered with 1 stan lot at 126311 closed trade for a loss at 125705-
took a loss of 66 pips. This was actually the first trade I entered of the rest and was not as quick to exit as I should have been. I must place stops on all my trades regardless of what I think may happen. 66 pips loss was way to high. very disapointed.

With the NFP tomorrow I'd rather close all trades and remain Neutral until next week.

Entry at 105929 exited at 107532- 149 pip gain

entered at 136910 exited at 136636- 27 pip gain

entry at 136765 stop at 136870

entered at 136765 stopped out at 136870.

entered at 148585 and exited at 148421 for 16 pips

So far the trade is going well and I intend to hold onto it as long as it continues to make new lows. I'd like to see a consolidation pattern near a support level during the asain session to really make me confident in holding onto this position for longer than 24hrs.

My entry was 148842 and my target for now is 14650. Currently up 86 pips

This is what I get from trying to post my journal from Work. My trade entry was 148842 and is now trading at 14790. up 90 pips.

As long as price remains below the 50% level of the fib stud from 153872 hi to 142237 lo I will remain in this trade hoping for a hit of my target at 14750 which also meets a up sloping trend line on the 4 hour chart. Up currently 100 pips.

Decided to close my first trade once it hit the 4 hr up trendline. Price seemed to have strong support at 14770 that may hold for the short term.
I'd rather take the 110 pips and begin to build a trade plan moving forward.

I opened a smaller sized short position at 147804 as a hunch on a consolidation and break of the trendline at a later time. Currenlty up 16 pips and will look to move to break even fast, I will not give any wiggle room on this position at this time of the day.

I do not think that the doji on the monthly chart is the bottom. Only a retest of the break of support as resistance and it has held very well. It can be seen clearly on the daily and weekly charts.

The bottom of my up sloping channel has finally broke after it held throughout Asia and part of the Euro session. I'd feel better if my 21 channel crossed the trend lind too but so far it has given good resistance on most timeframes. With the US rate data out soon I really do not know how much push we'll see. If price crosses back up accross the TL then I will close this trade. up only 25 pips right now.