Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 663 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,241
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:09am Jan 29, 2010 9:09am
sure acts like she wants to continue south.

eyes on e/u 3904
au 8895
  • #13,242
  • Edited 9:41am Jan 29, 2010 9:22am | Edited 9:41am
Today i have -2,6%

I made big mistake. I just hold long eur and dont protect it when those news has come... I was angry and add one position. All was totally blindly done....

How can i be so foolish? So i have to accept mistake. Time for relax is here. I was a little exhausted from the week and today... Still by computer...

-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it again...

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

I know the rules, understand, just have to do it...

Happy trading friends and have a great weekend
  • #13,243
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:46am Jan 29, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Fana
Today i have -2,6%

I made big mistake. I just hold long eur and dont protect it when those news has come... I was angry and add one position. All was totally blindly done....

How can i be so foolish? So i have to accept mistake. Time for relax is here. I was a little exhausted from the week and today... Still by computer...

-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it again...

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

[color=blue]Happy trading...
I suggest you revise what Auxesis said in TAF Based Trade Discussion about the main trend over the last few days or so, and how to find it on pages 6 to 8.

I also suggest that you trade only when price moves in that direction, especialy when you are learning or just starting out.

Good luck for next week, I sure you will recover the -2.6% in a couple of weeks. Ray
  • #13,244
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:54am Jan 29, 2010 9:54am
Quoting Fana
Today i have -2,6%

I made big mistake. I just hold long eur and dont protect it when those news has come... I was angry and add one position. All was totally blindly done....

How can i be so foolish? So i have to accept mistake. Time for relax is here. I was a little exhausted from the week and today... Still by computer...

-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it again...

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

I know the rules, understand,...
my $.02,

we still in a down trend my friend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #13,245
  • Jan 29, 2010 10:23am Jan 29, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Fana
Today i have -2,6%

I made big mistake. I just hold long eur and dont protect it when those news has come... I was angry and add one position. All was totally blindly done....

How can i be so foolish? So i have to accept mistake. Time for relax is here. I was a little exhausted from the week and today... Still by computer...

-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it again...

COMMENTS APPRECIATED

I know the rules,...
this week has been easy on e/u (despite the uncertainty). tokyo sells, london buys and ny sells some more.. every day. why break the cycle if the market hasn't?

there is nothing much to say except:
1) you ignored the trend
2) you ignored the news
3) you ignored your own inner scorpions

-2.6% is cheap for a lesson learned.
  • #13,246
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:43pm Jan 29, 2010 12:43pm
1234, Auxesis, Piccolo

Thank you very much for help.

Yes, that is true. And i also find some scorpion.
(when i am succesful-...now for last 5 days i had good profits... I tend to take it easy and little gamble....)
Also my gf tells me that i do it... I have to cook big great lunch as a satisfaction for my bad result today...Cookies for her(not for me...). She was really angry

I am glad, that the result is only -2,6%. Because today i deserve....

I also remembered Fti's warning about what i do. Many of that i have solved. But not everything... Still the market reminds me, that one have to be well prepared and nimble all the time when trading. And despite of personal feelings that it is OK, collapse can be here in a minute... Like today. I go study manual and charts.
Happy weekend and many thanks again. Regards. Fana
  • #13,247
  • Edited 5:47pm Jan 29, 2010 5:28pm | Edited 5:47pm
Quoting piccolo
this week has been easy on e/u (despite the uncertainty). tokyo sells, london buys and ny sells some more.. every day. why break the cycle if the market hasn't?

there is nothing much to say except:
1) you ignored the trend
2) you ignored the news
3) you ignored your own inner scorpions

-2.6% is cheap for a lesson learned.
Couldn't agree more. I was struggling with the inner cycles myself, but the overall action was clear. I would even add that London was not really buying but simply keeping the job. Too bad I'm forced to trade London session. Ugly week. Good thing I managed to finish in the green. Next week should be a lot better. Have a nice weekend chaps.

Fana, for what it's worth, my opinion is that you got overexcited with the few successful trades you had earlier this week. Your scorpions were greed and ego. Learn your lessons but start every day fresh and restarted. Try to forget what the result of yesterday or the day before was. That works for me. Like I said - just my opinion.
  • #13,248
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:27pm Jan 29, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Setebos
Considering the week we had - slow is actually good Less is more.
You were right Setebos,
I shouldn't quit early, action happened after I quited 3 hrs about 100pips. Or may be weekly traders took their profit?

Cheers,
  • #13,249
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:58pm Jan 29, 2010 7:58pm
-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it

Hi Fana,

my suggestion - do journal that keep track on your records how was it going? what went wrong? & what was the best part?....etc(it put memory to your brain). And the most important thing it reminds & nails in your head to prevent the mistake happen again.

I am a very lazy person(never write my dairy & no way for journal). But after traded for few years still the same mistakes. So I siad to myself better do journal then my trading was improved.

My 2 pips hope it helps.

Cheers,
  • #13,250
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:47pm Jan 29, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting pete.alfa
-currently working on: What i did, why i did it, how to protect to do it

Hi Fana,

my suggestion - do journal that keep track on your records how was it going? what went wrong? & what was the best part?....etc(it put memory to your brain). And the most important thing it reminds & nails in your head to prevent the mistake happen again.

I am a very lazy person(never write my dairy & no way for journal). But after traded for few years still the same mistakes. So I siad to myself better do journal then my trading was improved.

My...


Everyone should keep a journal, I keep a file on the computer broken down in months and weeks, end of each session I take a snapshot of the screens with P&L and entries/exits marked, a note or two if something needs mentioning and a simple spreadsheet with EOD account info. You will be surprised what you will discover after the fact, when the brain is neutral.

Everyone needs to write out a business plan, how you will pay yourself, taxes, goals, disciplines, ect.... it's a business. start simple, but update as needed and review it often.
  • #13,251
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:02pm Jan 29, 2010 11:02pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
This has been mentioned before ..... here is a great tool to practice your battles ..... not to replace a "real" battles but it's fun to do over the weekend if you still have desire and time to watch charts :-)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

Everything is explained pretty much on a first page of thread ..... just follow the setup exactly. Nice tip came later in thread .... press "pause/break" on a keyboard instead of clicking "play/pause" button (on strategy tester settings tab/window).

The only thing I modified for myself is lots traded (Instead of "doubling" sequence found in thread I have changed it to fib's) and SL to 0.


It works only on 1 timeframe, (e.g. 5 min) ..... so I've set up hourly and daily on a separate windows. Bars can be moved on those one-at-a-time by pressing F12. (make sure auto scroll is off .... if market is open)

Have fun with it :-D

P.S. It's for MT4 platforms !
  • #13,252
  • Jan 30, 2010 3:21am Jan 30, 2010 3:21am
Quoting auxesis


Everyone needs to write out a business plan, how you will pay yourself, taxes, goals, disciplines,... it's a business.
well said.

This approach with market "snapshots" is very helpful. I have been doing it for a while now.
  • #13,253
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:26am Jan 30, 2010 7:26am
Quoting fti
Ps: if the name baffles you . today, it is known only by its initials, DMG. they did away with the name.

Sorry was 2 decades ago, 1988, I can still remember , every one resigned from the bank, one of my "brothers", he headed their far east regional treasury. They even tried to put one of the captains of finance, a director there, to pasture. Fortunately, God does not allow good men to go down easily. after his tour of eating the hunmble pie , he sits on the apex of SGX now.
@fti
hope everything is well with you.
this is true. After experiencing the fast lanes myself, a "brother" mentioned almost the exact same words to me, good will not be held down.
I do not know how you did that thank you.
Anyhow,13800 bids, done and done (week end and month end)
regards sir.

@fana

You survived and are still in working condition for more..
Record keeping and planning are important habits as outlined.
What you could also do is group trades in bunches of 20,30,40 trades over a period of time( frequency), this will help with important tactical analysis.
regards.
the waves can get big out there.. good trading

Inserted Video
  • #13,254
  • Jan 30, 2010 9:21am Jan 30, 2010 9:21am
It is very good idea to establish a journal....

Here it is : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post3415917

Regards
  • #13,255
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:35pm Jan 31, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Dow Jones
1941 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. SUMMARY: Pressure on euro accelerated Friday, with common currency falling below $1.39 for first time in more six months, as sentiment deteriorated over fiscal health of some European countries. Weakness appeared to prompt action by Swiss National Bank. Traders said bank intervened in currency markets just after noon New York time to stem a sharp rally in Swiss franc. Swiss National Bank couldn`t be reached for comment.
SNB didn't let the euro free fall (again). Remember to be nimble this week..
  • #13,256
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:12pm Jan 31, 2010 4:12pm
Yen selling at the open, Kaching.
  • #13,257
  • Edited 7:52pm Jan 31, 2010 5:52pm | Edited 7:52pm
Good evening everyone.
I am in..dancing a bear...
already collected...
now reaching into the future.
good luck to everyone!

Edit: collected and switch.
Now I am a bull...
U/Y made collect and switch.
Waiting for a final bull push..

Edit: squared
...Now done until tomorrow.
A very aggressive dance:
bull(switch)-bear-bull and exit

edit: gosh! a very active evening...
done for the night...
one more thing: the pound is being destroyed!

Good night everyone!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,258
  • Edited 8:28pm Jan 31, 2010 8:10pm | Edited 8:28pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Greetings to all,

Attached is a "cable" chart with some explanations on it. It was oscillating (range-bound) for the most part of the last week. It was possible (we need some bias otherwise we would never place a trade ???) that it could go up from "support" area, but it did not. (it started going up, but didn't get close to the top of the range). It broke out south during the news.

So ..... assuming we were long and there were no news ...... would you and where close your position(s). Would you flip and where (if you had more than a scout would you flip all the troops or just close all and went short with scout only). Would you stay on a sideline and trade another day ?

I know this is a "hindsight" question and watching PA as it develops tops all our analysis. But I just wonder should we have some kind of "predetermined" idea/scenario/possibilities when we would presume to be wrong about "direction" of the pair.

This might be a question that everybody will answer differently based on their experience with FTI's MM/MO and their DNA, but I would like to hear your answers. I hope I'm not deviating from FTI's teaching with this post.

Thanks :-)

P.S. Again, in hindsight, there were no "good" rescue opportunities unless one went with probably 13x scout with great timing. If "hoping" over the weekend ..... not a gap you want on Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fti 25.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #13,259
  • Edited 10:48pm Jan 31, 2010 9:42pm | Edited 10:48pm
as I consider the e/u for the day areas of extra interest to me are
1.4131
3970
eye on 3898 area
3809

for the week bias is down from 4103
4103
3743-70
  • #13,260
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:52am Feb 1, 2010 12:52am
fti has been missing in action for a while now. let's hope that he is allright.
20 traders viewing now