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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #181
  • Dec 16, 2005 2:45pm Dec 16, 2005 2:45pm
Whoa whoa whoa, Claude thanks for sharing that with us.

In referance to adding the daily, must it agree with the weekly along with a northern moving 8 EMA on the 4hr in order to confirm a buy?

I dont use fib numbers. So those have no referance to me.

How have you yourself been doing with this method?
  • #182
  • Dec 16, 2005 2:46pm Dec 16, 2005 2:46pm
Quoting kwalberta
Thank you all for your hard work on this thread, especially Dial. A few weeks ago I sent an e-mail to Vegas; I just received a reply today which should be helpful for us all. Below is a copy of the e-mail exchange:

Hello Vegas,

I am interested in using a 4 hour strategy to trade the forex so I was very excited to read about your method.

Can you please give me an update about how this method has performed for you? and have you made any changes since you wrote this document?

-Claude in Calgary, Alberta


Claude,
Sorry for the delay.

Our performance results are quite good, but they are useless to you. It doesn't make any difference how much I make if you lose money. Discipline is the key.

The only changes we have made is that we now use daily candles with 24 and 28 ema's respectively as a guide in trading. Create a daily chart, then overlay 24 and 28 ema's, then plot the 144, 233 and 377 fib numbers. Do this on a weekly chart as well, but plot the fib numbers 377, 610, and 987 [these are for gbp. Other currency pairs will be different]. Now, look at all 3 charts [the 1 hour or 4 hour depending on which tunnel method you use, the daily, and the weekly. You will immediately see the wonderful trading opportunities.

-vegas
Thank you for sharing that kwalberta! And welcome to the factory, or thank you for delurking as the case may be. Always glad to have new members added to the FF family!

I wonder if they meant the 24 & 28 ema's to be on the close or the median? Thoughts anyone?

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #183
  • Dec 16, 2005 3:21pm Dec 16, 2005 3:21pm
Quoting diallist
Thank you for sharing that kwalberta! And welcome to the factory, or thank you for delurking as the case may be. Always glad to have new members added to the FF family!

I wonder if they meant the 24 & 28 ema's to be on the close or the median? Thoughts anyone?

Dial
Hmmm as in enter trades after close or during the open bar?

If thats the case, my opinion would be close to avoid fakes.

I am not sure since I dont now have my programs up right now (I'm at work) but using the daily would permit us to, I believe, find potential profits. For example USDJPY, the Daily is going negative, the weekly has gone negative, and the 8 SMA is heading down. That Spells short right there, rather then waiting til the end of the week to finally realize we have a reversal in place. In conclusion, it elminates lag by one week.

Dial let me know what you think on my analysis.. if I am viewing this right.
  • #184
  • Dec 16, 2005 3:55pm Dec 16, 2005 3:55pm
The information seems a bit vague, and thus open to speculation. Are they implying that you use the daily ma's in a similar manner to the weeklies so that would imply median rather than close?

Also are they fine tuning weekly momentum using a daily chart? How are you meant to use this new timeframe?

Was there any more information from Vegas in the email?

Quoting diallist
Thank you for sharing that kwalberta! And welcome to the factory, or thank you for delurking as the case may be. Always glad to have new members added to the FF family!

I wonder if they meant the 24 & 28 ema's to be on the close or the median? Thoughts anyone?

Dial
  • #185
  • Dec 16, 2005 4:01pm Dec 16, 2005 4:01pm
Quote
Claude,
Sorry for the delay.

Our performance results are quite good, but they are useless to you. It doesn't make any difference how much I make if you lose money. Discipline is the key.

The only changes we have made is that we now use daily candles with 24 and 28 ema's respectively as a guide in trading. Create a daily chart, then overlay 24 and 28 ema's, then plot the 144, 233 and 377 fib numbers. Do this on a weekly chart as well, but plot the fib numbers 377, 610, and 987 [these are for gbp. Other currency pairs will be different]. Now, look at all 3 charts [the 1 hour or 4 hour depending on which tunnel method you use, the daily, and the weekly. You will immediately see the wonderful trading opportunities.

-vegas

Hi,

Time for me to ask what may be a dumb question. Where they say plot the 144, 233 and 377 fib numbers.

Are they saying to plot more moving averages using the fib numbers for the period values or have I missed it completely.

I'm certainly lost in the tunnel trying to understand what they mean

Thanks
  • #186
  • Dec 16, 2005 4:05pm Dec 16, 2005 4:05pm
Quoting riveria
Hi,

Time for me to ask what may be a dumb question. Where they say plot the 144, 233 and 377 fib numbers.

Are they saying to plot more moving averages using the fib numbers for the period values or have I missed it completely.

I'm certainly lost in the tunnel trying to understand what they mean

Thanks
LOL You missed it completly buddy, but is ok.

They mean from the time you get a buy signal to plot those fib numbers in as a point to take of 1 unit off the trade.
  • #187
  • Dec 16, 2005 6:11pm Dec 16, 2005 6:11pm
I would like to have a meeting tonight in referance to this "PR" with other traders of the board. It can be with anyone who trades this. I wanna figure this out and reprogram my model.

Any messanger is good for me.
  • #188
  • Dec 16, 2005 7:04pm Dec 16, 2005 7:04pm
Quoting xspowerx
LOL You missed it completly buddy, but is ok.

They mean from the time you get a buy signal to plot those fib numbers in as a point to take of 1 unit off the trade.
LOL! You missed it too! (relax, I'm just picking on you good naturedly)

It has nothing to do with getting a signal. It has to do with plotting lines parallel to a central moving average at distances of 144, 233 & 377 pips above AND below the central moving average. What they didn't tell us was WHICH moving average to measure from. Therefore I shall make a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) and choose the slower, 28 EMA.

The image below is the daily chart of GBP/USD. The 24 EMA is blue and the 28 EMA is yellow. Above and below the 28 EMA are plotted the three fib levels (in silver) at which profit would be taken.
Attached Image
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  • #189
  • Dec 16, 2005 7:07pm Dec 16, 2005 7:07pm
Quoting xspowerx
I would like to have a meeting tonight in referance to this "PR" with other traders of the board. It can be with anyone who trades this. I wanna figure this out and reprogram my model.

Any messanger is good for me.
Why not post right here where everyone can participate and benefit from the brainstorming? And what does "PR" mean. Sorry, I don't know.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #190
  • Dec 16, 2005 7:14pm Dec 16, 2005 7:14pm
Whoa I did miss it completely. Thanks for correcting me LOL.

Now I gotta learn how to program that.. maybe thats why I never used them cause I never really new it was that.

Here people respond slower, in a chat I figured we can have a more timely discussion but here is good to. I am going to dinner now, will you be on tonight?

PR is stock term for Press Release, sorry LOL
  • #191
  • Edited 1:37am Dec 17, 2005 1:28am | Edited 1:37am
On the chart below I deleted the 24 EMA and left the 28 EMA. I added an 8 SMA on the close. I entered on the close after the slope change with three units and exited one unit per fib level. If only 1 or 2 fib levels had been hit, I would have closed the trade on the close of the bar after the next slope change.

Not bad for two trades, huh?

Dial

P.S. The secondary trade in the middle yielded 424 pips in one day, bringing the average pips per day to 66 over the 43 days. I think I like this!
Attached Image
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  • #192
  • Dec 17, 2005 1:47am Dec 17, 2005 1:47am
What is cool is you only have to check your trade once a day and adjust the limits to the new fib levels. Probably wouldn't hurt to trail a stop either. Hmmm....100 pips? Whadda ya think?

The whole deal should only take 5 minutes a day! (make that six minutes)

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #193
  • Dec 17, 2005 2:43am Dec 17, 2005 2:43am
Hey Dial good work! Your posts here are always insightful.

I'm gonna hammer this tunnel system to pieces over xmas and see what I can come up with before the launch of the pf.

To be honest once the pf opens, I'm gonna head straight to your section and grab all your stuff.

Quoting diallist
What is cool is you only have to check your trade once a day and adjust the limits to the new fib levels. Probably wouldn't hurt to trail a stop either. Hmmm....100 pips? Whadda ya think?

The whole deal should only take 5 minutes a day! (make that six minutes)

Dial
  • #194
  • Edited 5:20am Dec 17, 2005 2:56am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Isotonic
Hey Dial good work! Your posts here are always insightful.

I'm gonna hammer this tunnel system to pieces over xmas and see what I can come up with before the launch of the pf.

To be honest once the pf opens, I'm gonna head straight to your section and grab all your stuff.
Oh? Didn't Merlin tell you? Because you nearly gave me a heart attack by making me believe that BlueMonkey had quit the forum, your access to my section will be blocked until Groundhog day.

Have a nice day.

Dial
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  • #195
  • Edited 3:18am Dec 17, 2005 3:07am | Edited 3:18am
FYI everyone. I think the concept in post 193 above has potential, maybe. I already see some problems that could kill the profitability. But, I've already got some ideas of how to minimize those problems.

I'm going to try out a few other ideas I have; backtest them; and if they work out I'll present my findings as a new system in the Private Forum. Not sure what I'll call it yet. Perhaps "Arrow" or "Boomerang" or some such weird name as that. I've already experimented tonight with alternate MA's on different currencies and I might be on to something good.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #196
  • Dec 17, 2005 4:55am Dec 17, 2005 4:55am
Hi guys, do not you notice that 1hour system works well at the beginning of the momentum and 4 hour coming in action later?
kiss the trend
  • #197
  • Dec 17, 2005 5:28am Dec 17, 2005 5:28am
Quoting fx-trader777
Hi guys, do not you notice that 1hour system works well at the beginning of the momentum and 4 hour coming in action later?
No, I hadn't noticed since I don't trade the 1 hour system. There's nothing wrong with it. It's a great system too, but it doesn't fit my schedule.

But I can tell you this: Team Aphid discovered that the Bolt system (available in the Beginners Forum) is good for late entries if you happen to miss an entry on the Vegas 4 hour system.

Please tell us more about your observation.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #198
  • Dec 17, 2005 5:39am Dec 17, 2005 5:39am
Hi diallist

How do you construct "FIB" lines which are parallel to the 28 SMA at the pips required using Metatrader (FXStrategy) or Visual Trader?

Trinity
  • #199
  • Dec 17, 2005 5:58am Dec 17, 2005 5:58am
Quoting diallist
No, I hadn't noticed since I don't trade the 1 hour system. There's nothing wrong with it. It's a great system too, but it doesn't fit my schedule.

But I can tell you this: Team Aphid discovered that the Bolt system (available in the Beginners Forum) is good for late entries if you happen to miss an entry on the Vegas 4 hour system.

Please tell us more about your observation.

Dial
OK first of all execuse me if I misunderstood 1hour system
I have not read that but I guess it is with the same set up as 4 hour. only difference is that you use daily momentum as trend identification signal and 1hour charts for entry, MAs are the same. Am I right? If no then I have new system which comes from 4hour system but is valid only on beginning of momentum. If yes then I will provide charts that confirms how 1hour is good at the beginning of the momentum.
OK so my question is: Is 1hour momentum system as I described above?

thanks
kiss the trend
  • #200
  • Dec 17, 2005 7:36am Dec 17, 2005 7:36am
I did not have time to program and test last night but I will later today or tonight and post the results.

Keep in touch how you all are interpreting this.
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