TSF Mavin

Went long at 145.63 (+10ips above the High) and set 2 targets. Both were hit...

Glad to see you are having some success too.

I am nursing a back injury and am on some "good" drugs so my focus isn't so great at the moment. But I did manage to get 3 wins today (Thursday GMT).

I'm now thinking that 30 take profit and maybe 30 + spread stoploss are workable settings. Also considering that FOMC news days (US announcements) can be pretty risky, especially with the old 2+:1 R/R. But it is probably manageable with the more equal R/R I'm looking at now. Anyway, at this point it is a judgement call regarding trades just before and after major news. In general, I think only the Rate announcements are critical. I've been watching and note that recently the US Rate news days actually move GY more than GB or J Rate news. So keep an eye on that. Also, US unemployment at the end of the first week each month... If that coincides with the GB Rate (the day before), that can make for a really bumpy ride.

I see that most days have at least 2 valid trades, and many have 3. I'd love to get this system down to an EA and take advantage of those times that signal while I'm at work or in bed sleeping. Hardest part is moving orders for an improve price after they are placed.

On that note, everyone should realize that a scenario can happen like this. A fully qualified bar forms at a new extreme for the day and you place your order. Then there is a pullback and you get a new bar that forms allowing a price improvement -- let's say 10 pips better. Well, sorry, don't do it. You'll be too close to the extreme. If you take it there is a good chance price will move to fill your order and advance to just short of the old extreme, and then run away from you and trigger your stoploss. It is better in this case to leave your order where it is, as having to exceed the last extreme is a good challange to make the market prove its intent. However, if the price improvement is at least 20 pips, I'd consider it. Because having to make back that 20 pip offset is going to take some momentum, and there is a good chance there will be enough to move on enough to get to take profit... especially on a 30 minute chart. If I was trading on a higher timeframe I don't think I would take that improvement either. The safest thing is to take a price improvement if you can achieve your take profit without having to reach a new extreme.

Thanks for posting. I hadn't noticed your charts until just now. Might not be able to get back to commenting for awhile though. But I really appreciate your interest in this. Continued good luck to you.

Sorry about your injury...

It seems (visually) that this strat is suitable for the GBPJPY only. Yes. An EA would be good. At least we could have some answers to those questions..
You going for 30/30? Hmmm, perhaps the Binary equation can come to play? Right now, when there's a signal, I lowered the TF to 5 minutes to determine Stop Loss from the last Pivot High or Low and using the Fibo to project 3 TP targets. Also if the qualified bar is > 70 pips, i will ignore that signal.. Will do more tests
Anyway thanks again for a great strat. This thread deserves more participation

My "injury" is old age.… though I'm not THAT old.

I am interested by your multiple timeframe take on this, as well as your application of fibs for tp and sl. When you have a chance to mark-up a sample 5 minute chart I'd really like to see that. I am curious what a typical tp and sl might be.

Sure Qman. We may have a potential set-up here? Let see how this bar closes in the next 15 mins

Here is my current trade. I just placed the pending order, waiting for a fill.

Oops, actually this isn't a qualified trade because you notice the qualifying bar is not equal to or higher than the high of the day and is not 20 or more pips lower than the high of the day.

So I should take this one off and wait... but it looks mighty tempting...

ok.. We have a setup

I lower to a 5min and then pull a fib from the last high to the last pivot low. Perhaps the chart can explain better...

Qman, what time does your day start to determine the High of the day? I am using FXDD and it starts at 22gmt

Cashcalf, this is where your MTF and fibs might give you more options than I have with my straight 30/30. I see resistance around 144.57, and I think price might die at that point. Your approach would allow you to take profit earlier and close, where if price dies for me I'm headed for a stoploss. ... But then, I'm going to bed soon, so I can't hang around monitoring this all night.

I'm on IBFX, so I'm on GMT. Midnight was almost 7.5 hours ago on my platform... which was 2pm here in Hawaii.

My 1st TP is met. I have shifted the rest to Break-even

Perhaps a little to conservative. A shift to the 100% Fib ratio amy be more logical..

You are absolutely right Good night

This is where the new rule for not qualifying a bar if it is too close to the high or low of the day saves me. But of course the market could develop more "courage" and push through now, or in a little while from now. But my rules are meant to allow me to set and forget. I can trade actively when I want or need, but I generally don't have the time. So the rules I designed seem to protect me while allowing me to maximize my profit potential. But there are no doubt more opportunities. TSF Mavin -- meaning the ribbon with the EMA does a pretty good job of finding safe entries on breakouts. How one chooses to play it from there is where we can have lots of discussions.

As for other pairs, I think it MIGHT work, but not with these settings on this timeframe. There very possibly are other settings with different timeframes that will still work with other pairs... but who has time to investigate all of that? Maybe when I retire... Just remember, GJ moves nicely even at the 30 min level. To get that same amount of movement on other pairs you've got to be looking at a higher timeframe. I think that might be key if you want to look at other pairs. And TP/SL would also differ accordingly... not to mention the EMA... could be 13, or 25 ... who knows. If others have the time you are certainly free to investigate (and report back?).

Anyway, on my IBFX feed there is now a fully qualified bar that has closed, so my position is going on at 145.69.... and just got filled in fact!

Qman:

Thank you for this successful way to tame the beast! that is if I have the rules correct.

Attached is a template along with a picture so you can check each trade in more detail on a Interbank FX chart.

The ant_GuBreakout_V.O.4.1 draws a line that is set 20 pips from each days high and low to show a picture display of one entry filter. The 15 level is added to the 20ema to filter retrace entries.

Are these entries correct? If so I may work on improvemets.

Thanks again Qman!

Steve

Stevewide, thank you for your contribution! You have captured most of what I have been posting about. I have recently (from mid this week) been placing trades with 30 pip tp objective and 36 pip sl... However, I'm not sold on these limits. I see several trades that would have lost with those settings that would have come back to win eventually without reaching the 70 pip original rule stoploss. I guess it takes a lot out of me to lose that much... but with such a winning percentage I'd have to reconsider. I was looking back yesterday morning and noted that the 30/36 setting was really good last week, but other weeks it would really be a problem.

The only issue with your template for me was I needed to adjust the 15 pip standoff from the 20EMA for my broker feed, as I think you have 3 places after the decimal and I only have 2. Thus your 150 input is equivilent to my 15... Having said that, there could be something learned from how that appears... When you have a chance throw on +/-1500 standoff from your EMA and see if you see a pattern like I think I am. Not sure if it is useful, or just an illusion.

Also wanted to point out that your extreme lines would adjust through a given day. You probably know that, but you don't see that in the template and I just want to state it for anybody else that might look it over. This isn't a carry over from the previous day. It is real time day high and low to that point in the day that is used in the entry evaluations.

So, with all of that said, yes you've got it showing pretty accurately.

For me, I'm happy making a single trade a day if I'm a winner a huge percentage of the time and I can risk a higher percentage of my account. But losses on the first trade over multiple days is going to be really hard for me to take. Knowing that overall this method is going to pile up lots of winners over an average timeframe (weeks and months) keeps me hanging on to it to work something out. But to take the trades after the first of the day I'm going to have to have a robot assist cause I've gotta sleep, and I've gotta work too.

I suspect there are more optimal tp and sl levels that we could discover. And in the bigger scheme of things, I would suspect there are another filter or two that could be used to adjust tp and sl levels daily or weekly. Unfortunately, if you ask me what they are I can only say I haven't been looking yet... I'm still trying to get to evaluating tp and sl levels.

A fully automated system will allow us to automate backtests so that we can play around and find reliable and profitable tp and sl levels, and then evaluate the effect of other filters/indicators.

Still, your study clearly demonstrates the viability of the method in January. December was pretty good too if you leave off xmas and new years weeks. November was tougher but workable. I think the start of October was really rough --- but remember, I was only focusing on the first trades of the day. I'm not sure of any correllations between bad first trade days and options for the rest of the day.

I can program when I have a chance. I'm far from great but I can muddle through. But it takes me hours and hours. And that is not very popular with my wife at the moment. So I just can't do it. But if we get enough of a track record documented, and I can start showing that I can grow my little account, I can sell her on it I'm sure. That's my bridge, but I have to build it first. Assistance from folks like you is greatly appreciated and I'm happy you are finding it of some interest.

Cashcalf's profit and loss setting method is probably quite superior to anything I've specified here to date. It allows some variabiliity based upon known patterns in market behavior. I understand it, and would apply such things if I was able to constantly monitor the market. I just can't do that though, and and I think most folks are in that boat too. Cashcalf, you'll probably make your millions long before the rest of us... if you haven't already!

Stevewide, thanks for your post and your work. Have a great weekend too.

Qman:

Thanks for a great response. I am learning alot from you.

broker feed: I thought you used Interbank FX which is a 5 digit broker. That's why I used them. The 1500 level sends the level off the page so I must assume my 150 is equal to your 15. Please tell me your broker and I'll switch.

Extreme line indicator: Yes. they move throughout the day so you have to be careful. They may not be useful for this reason.

Cashcalf's profit and loss setting method: will have to look at it as I devote full time to trading.

Qman, this is my first method I can understand that tames the beast. That's huge. Be assured I will continue to work on this. I may go back to November 2009 this week and see how it worked.

I have a programmer friend who is very busy but I have shown him the thread. There's a chance he may work on the EA.

Have a God blessed week!

Steve

That is really excellent news! And thanks for the complements... I assure you the beast has bit me plenty and spit me out a few times too. In fact, it has swallod me whole more than once to be honest.

Looking back there are some situations that occur that I haven't specifically addressed in the "rules". Since these are situations that an EA writer would need to decide about I'll put them out now. But they are kind of rare, and so what I propose might not be the ultimate way to handle them... It's just how I choose to handle them now.

Your in a valid trade but it is going against you. Before it reaches the stoploss though you get an opposite qualifying bar. What do you do? I say we close the losing trade as soon as possible after the open of the next bar and get our next trade in place right after that. Sequencing is critical in an EA, especially in a US conforming account since we won't be able to put on opposing positions. The good news is this sometimes allows you to save some pips on the losing end.

Your in a valid trade but it is near the close on Friday afternoon. You haven't reached your tp yet... and maybe you are even in a loss to this point. What do you do? I say close it. Don't hold over the weekend. Not with GJ. The bugger is just as likely to toss you a 100 pip bonus as open with a locked in 100 pip loss.

Sometimes you'll be in a position and it will be moving to profit and will reverse some, then start to continue and will signal (fully qualified) another possible entry in the same direction. Maybe even at a better entry than what you currently have. What do you do? There are lots of ways to play this, but it is rare. If your first position is in profit, I'd close it to lock the profit if I could put on a trade at a better entry. That is a conservative play and gets my vote. But I wouldn't take it if I wasn't getting a better opening price because now you are tempting fate. Sometimes you'd win, for sure some times you'd lose. But it is greed creeping in and that is what we need to try and guard against. Your original position stands a better chance of winning then a new position at a worse entry. Keep the easier win. And don't open a second position in the same direction -- UNLESS YOU'VE MOVED TO A NEW DAY. If you are on to a new day, then I'd say you are onto a different ball game. I don't know why, it is probably all psychological, but it doesn't matter. A new day is a new day. Respect that. If the new day wants to continue in the direction the old day ended going, and it gives you a valid signal, go ahead an open the second position. It will usually work out. If the new signal happens to be against the first position, then respect that and get out of the old position as described a couple of paragraphs above.

The last thing I want to cover is when the signal comes and that bar closes at the favorable extreme. The bar that is forming as you try to place your trade might be too close to the price you are trying to get for your trade to be accepted. Well, I say get in where you can. My broker won't allow me to place a trade that is less than 3 pips from the current price. It kills me when it happens. So then I'm trying to put on a market trade, and then half the time you get some really sickening fill. Remember that you are trying to have the current bar confirm by moving at least a pip beyond. You have to be sure that happens or you have an incorrect entry, and someday you'll see price run away to hit your stoploss without ever actually qualifying getting beyond the previous bars extreme. So, this is tough, but a market trade is what is in order, and waiting for price to confirm might get you a bad entry price. I say if I'm not there to nurse it, I'm going to write off the few extra pips I lose on the poor entry. In an EA I'd have it check if the price qualified, and try to place the stop entry, and if that failed immediately place a market order. Keep the stoploss and tp where they should be off a proper entry. Doing otherwise is getting greedy and tempting fate. I usually don't take steps that tempt fate. ... Usually.

In the above case, if I have some time and I'm feeling lucky, I'm not against scalping in another trade at a better entry (which is tempting fate!), but only let it run enough to recoup what I'm missing on the original entry. Just realize you are set up for the duration of the second trade, for a double loss. If you don't have the balls for a double loss that day, be honest with yourself and DON'T DO IT.

I have a couple more things to reply to from yours, but I have company and will be away for a little bit.

Happy to report that we had an easy win on a sell trade earlier. Market seems to be trying to set up for another trade. Don't know which way it will go yet.

Now with regard to my account. I am with IBFX. I have an old account. I thought everybody was supposed to be switched over to an extra decimal place. And the extra decimal is in play on other pairs I can display... but not on GJ. I can't explain it. Maybe I'm the only person in the world still with this feed... who knows. But I'm not complaining.

With regard to the 150 pip standoff lines on the 20EMA, take a look at the attached chart. Price doesn't push out that far very often, but when it does it doesn't stay there very long. Check it out here and you'll see it only shot out there twice. I had to scroll back quit a ways to see the next time before these two, and while price (in that case... not shown here) rode the line for another hour and a half, after that it went into a long consolidation. So the lesson is that an extreme move that pushes out to 150 pips beyond the 20 EMA on a 30 minute chart has probably seen the maximum it is going to go. Sometimes it will snap back, other times it will go flatline for awhile. There are probably exceptions, but these moves themselves are exceptional, so you are talking about rare in the midst of the rare. Got it? So if you get a signal at that extreme telling you it is going to continue, you have reason to be distrustful. And with our goal of 30 pips, it could very likely still make it. But my personal tendency would be to shoot for a smaller goal, like 20 pips. Still, it is very unlikely that you'll be getting a continuation signal way out there. And though not part of the TSF Mavin, if I had another method that gave me a reversal signal out at that point, I think I'd jump on it.

Pips to all, and good night.