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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,801
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:00am Jan 22, 2010 2:00am
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting Scarecru
Personal ? to U.

What RSI parameters do U use ? eg: 9 on D tf, 54 on 4H.

Did you attempt the Beaver ( cad/y) yet?
I do not trade cad/y.
I trade EUR/USD and EUR/JPY euro based pairs.
Pound based GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF.
USD pairs I trade are USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

Lately my all trades are based on RSI in extreme and so far so good.
  • #2,802
  • Jan 22, 2010 5:42am Jan 22, 2010 5:42am
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting Kokan
Closed at 1.4888. Trailing done good job/
Added some more at 1.0506, 1.0508, 1.0513 and 1.0519 sl from 1.0542 till 1.0576
Closed at 1.0495.
  • #2,803
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:32pm Jan 24, 2010 6:32pm
Something going on in equities. This may be worth hanging onto a long USD position trade. Aka as holding cash.
Too much complacency and assurances that the financial crisis has become yesterdays news. The forces of deflation are powerful and once unleashed not so easy to contain. The debt load remains too high for new growth to come from credit expansion.
With the U.S the only real consumer Nation on Earth what other country will pick up the slack on the magnitude required to fuel World growth?
From a money management angle, a small size to get started, then build into the trade if a trend materializes.
  • #2,804
  • Jan 24, 2010 9:07pm Jan 24, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting foto
Something going on in equities. This may be worth hanging onto a long USD position trade. Aka as holding cash.. The forces of deflation are powerful and once unleashed not so easy to contain. The debt load remains too high for new growth to come from credit expansion.
With the U.S the only real consumer Nation on Earth what other country will pick up the slack on the magnitude required to fuel World growth?
From a money management angle, a small size to get started, then build into the trade if a trend materializes.
Foto: what causes your concern with equities?( told you that I'm a tekkie not a fundie) & what are "forces of deflation"? -could you suggest any sources whereby, I could get some info?

Some stuff that I read this weekend,suggested that USD index may have reached bottom & poised to go up. Others mentioned Yen x's going down.

In my limited experience, this suggests risk aversion.

Should gold & siver appreciate then? (if the big players are USD +ve).

Was recent news that Sam's club axing 11,000 jobs a factor? My understanding was that it was largest buyer from ProC. So if sam ain't buying from China,cuz people ain't buying from sam(walmart),China not going to buy commodities from Australia,etc.

Are you thinking- 2nd leg down in recession?
  • #2,805
  • Jan 24, 2010 10:21pm Jan 24, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting foto
Hi Scarecru,
Was just watching Aussie action, clear rejection of the opening spike up strength. Since I tend to be longer term oriented todays events might well be the turning point for the markets. We still have the government buying up equities during selloffs but the market will ultimately do what it wants.

Just have to give it a bit more time to establish a trend.
Foto: could you please explain ( in terms that my limited brain might handle) "gvnmnt bying up equtys during selloffs mktdoes what it wants"
Thank you ( trying to get a different view of charts)
  • #2,806
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:47pm Jan 25, 2010 7:47pm
Hi Scarecru, first let me say that there really is no right or wrong way to develop opinion. The only reason to have an opinion about a market is that it enables a person to know why they are in a position which means that when that reason becomes invalid then they should exit that position.
For instance two USD bull's could be buying the USD for two diametricaly different purposes. A person who believes that the U.S. is poised to recover and consequently the Fed will be reversing monetary policy and leaving zero interest rates behind will buy the USD against lets say the Euro as Europe is stuck in the mud with high unemployment and a severe winter which is knocking the stuffing out of Eastern Europe and thus threatens the banks of Europe with defaults.
Another person who believes that Fed policy is basicaly meaningless against the real market (this notion is supported by the total lack of economic response by Japan to a decade of quantitative easing by the B.O.J.) might precieve things like the Sam's club layoffs, the default by real estate giant Tishman Spears, the drop in existing home sales in Dec. as evidence that the recession is far from over. That commercial real estate without having business growth is going to be in deep trouble with cascading defaults. Equity market weakness.
These kinds of things would suggest staying in cash (Treasuries) and buying the USD rather then chasing the global markets. {You might check out the opinion of economist Gary Shilling.}

Both people are USD Bulls and both opinions would help boost the USD
Someone else a Chartist, might look at the USD Index and see a recently completed 1,2,3 formation on the Dailies, They buy the USD because the chart says that's the right thing to do.

For the USD to go up it takes more buying then selling, and the market really becomes a composite of opinion, and so the market moves.
In an analysis the more reasons (non synchronized ideas) that one has for taking an action, the higher the probability that one just may be sizing up the market correctly.
In the end game all we really trade is a probability, there is no certainty.
That is why there seems to be so much confusion when listening to different analysts. Everyone is just expressing their opinion.

This whole blurb from me is just my opinion, and maybe the market really moves due to planetary alignments. There are some who trade the astral bodies and make money.

Take what you hear with a grain of Salt and just work on staying with the winners and dumping losers, finding the best way you can to do that.
  • #2,807
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:59pm Jan 25, 2010 7:59pm
One other thing about the government intervening in the markets and buying up equities. It is well known that the B.O.J buys up the Japanese markets in an effort to boost public confidence.
The U.S. Fed probably through the N.Y. Fed would buy up the Dow because that is always front page financial news. The Public watches the Dow so to create confidence in happyland the Fed buys up the market.
The only trouble is that people do go home and talk and percieve the reality in their own lives that unemployment is high. That the neighbors house is getting foreclosed. That they are stuck in a job that is going nowhere and can't find something better. So the propaganda can backfire on those illusionists that attempt to control public opinion through manipulation.

Thus in my opinion there will be a massive taxpayer revolt in November that will totaly shock Washington. So I stick by the bullish case for the USD. The revolt of the Ants.
The Dollar bears believe the U.S. is irreversably in deep s_ _ t and so they sell the USD.

Thus the market moves.
Hope this helps demystify the financial market analysts.
  • #2,808
  • Edited 7:44pm Jan 26, 2010 7:33pm | Edited 7:44pm
Truly appreciate the information & the energy/time required for your responses!

Should be interesting to view the USD bear/bull camp battles.( I kinda favour the bulls cuz that was my interpretation from the chicken entrails-which was confirmed by the coin toss).

The risk aversion pundits-in my opinion-present their case more objectively. This ,to me, parallels tekkie analysis.

My TPP (Jan 29) of 1.0630 was hit!
The down TL (D) from 11/3-12/17 was "spiked" today.
I'm looking @ 1.0654 as Resistance & D STO is o/b.
PA is o/b so I am thinking short tonight (if 0650 holds). The rise from Jan 14 to present appears too steep.
2nd Resistance level: 0741 (prev hi's 12/17 & 11/27 '09)
Shall be interesting to read in the liberal press next Nov; "Ants are revolting!"
  • #2,809
  • Jan 26, 2010 8:57pm Jan 26, 2010 8:57pm
I got a short on the beaverTP 83.50
  • #2,810
  • Jan 26, 2010 9:11pm Jan 26, 2010 9:11pm
anyone here trading daily charts? i'm thinking of shorting this.
  • #2,811
  • Jan 26, 2010 9:13pm Jan 26, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting Scarecru
I got a short on the beaverTP 83.50
"beaver" ??
  • #2,812
  • Jan 26, 2010 9:16pm Jan 26, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting qwertymyfx
anyone here trading daily charts? i'm thinking of shorting this.
I am short from 1.0665.

Good Luck
  • #2,813
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:07pm Jan 27, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting qwertymyfx
"beaver" ??
Beaver: right now this lovely little creature ( nice to look at, pet & responds to attention ) has sunk her teeth into my shorts & causing me great pain.
  • #2,814
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:20pm Jan 27, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting qwertymyfx
anyone here trading daily charts? i'm thinking of shorting this.
I trade w D tf.

I am short biased (or was) starting to waver.

Why are you thinking short?
  • #2,815
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:24pm Jan 27, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting sohail212
i am short from 1.0665.

Good luck
come on guys; why are you short?

I got poutine & parity on the line here! I finally cross the line & go long, now short people appear!

Why????
  • #2,816
  • Jan 27, 2010 8:50pm Jan 27, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting foto
One other thing about the government intervening in the markets and buying up equities. It is well known that the B.O.J buys up the Japanese markets in an effort to boost public confidence.
The U.S. Fed probably through the N.Y. Fed would buy up the Dow because that is always front page financial news. The Public watches the Dow so to create confidence in happyland the Fed buys up the market.
The only trouble is that people do go home and talk and percieve the reality in their own lives that unemployment is high. That the neighbors house is getting...
Just finished a 1st read on an article on deflation (blog was posted today). He expounded the same thoughts that you posted earlier.
There was good global reasoning for his position. Bottom line "deflation is winning". What struck me was his final argument ( as you so articulately phrased it) I feel the pinch at my job, the neighbours are losing their houses,I ain't going out to dinner, movies,etc. cuz I have to cut down.
The author of this piece was also, the USD "bull mkt pundit" mentioned in an earlier post.

Keep making pips in your trades!
  • #2,817
  • Jan 28, 2010 6:34pm Jan 28, 2010 6:34pm
Hi Scarecru, thanks for the heads up. Been busy thinking about what the heck is going on.
My only take on last nights State of the Union Message, was first I had to exit the room so as not to throw up. Secondly the White House is scrambling to come up with a course of action that might actualy work, as they are publicaly acknowledging via the Mouth (B.O.) that they really are out of touch with reality, and the economy is worse then they expected.
I do think politics is an important composite of how money moves around the globe. So it is a factor in my trading.
  • #2,818
  • Jan 28, 2010 6:48pm Jan 28, 2010 6:48pm
Quote
Hi Scarecru, first let me say that there really is no right or wrong way to develop opinion. The only reason to have an opinion about a market is that it enables a person to know why they are in a position which means that when that reason becomes invalid then they should exit that position.
For instance two USD bull's could be buying the USD for two diametricaly different purposes. A person who believes that the U.S. is poised to recover and consequently the Fed will be reversing monetary policy and leaving zero interest rates behind will buy the...

Superb post. Great knowledge you have.
  • #2,819
  • Jan 28, 2010 7:11pm Jan 28, 2010 7:11pm
To paraphrase Shakespeare: " Much nothing about what to do!"

71 minutes. When he could have shrugged his shoulders & said: "WTF!"
  • #2,820
  • Jan 28, 2010 9:59pm Jan 28, 2010 9:59pm
Interesting to note he focused a lot more on domestic issues than intn'l as he did in his inauguration speech...Reminds me of of a tele-evangelist when he gets up on his podium and preaches to the masses. Anyone else think this?

Anyway, so what's everyone thinking on the USD/CAD? I was tempted to short it not too long ago in the 1.0680s, but with Canadian GDP out tomorrow, and it being a Friday I decided to still my itchy trigger finger. Looks a bit like a triple top forming if it doesn't break higher, but I've been waiting for a decent pullback to get long.. 1.0530/55 looking good at the moment. I think we are going to see a push into the 1.07s, though.

Who is short and who is long now? Me, I'll wait for tomorrow to try and get in a trade. Shorting around 1.0720 or 1.0750 would be nice R/R trade as lot of 'real' money selling interest up there...

Have fun!
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