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Perstoman's T. Journals

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jul 17, 2010 1:31am Jan 26, 2010 7:21pm | Edited Jul 17, 2010 1:31am
For the past couple years, I have lost so much in FX market.(Not just money, but also Time)
But at the same time, I learned a lot from my past mistakes.

The reason for me to write this trading journal is to keep the record of trades and be able to see what I have done right and wrong.
I really hope I can regularly update this journal and end up as a successful trader.


*Edit:
From today (July 17th, 2010), I will post trade updates with how my account is growing.
I have opened a new account with $2k, and I am down 10-15% so far.
My initial goal is to double this account without risking too much.

My trading style is using S/R and trendline break outs.
My winning rate with BO trading is relatively high 70% or higher.
Plus, I won't trade long term trades, unless I am already in a winning trade.
This also means, I won't add to losing trades.
  • #2
  • Jan 26, 2010 7:28pm Jan 26, 2010 7:28pm
After seeing USD/CHF getting rejected at the previous high, I sold this pair.
Possible 1st target is circled on the chart.
There's no doubt that we are in a somewhat strong uptrend, but I also see that USD/CHF had not retraced for a quite a time.
So, let's see if my first trade works out!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3
  • Jan 26, 2010 7:45pm Jan 26, 2010 7:45pm
Similar idea with my analysis on USD/CHF.
This pair is testing the long term downtrend trend line atm.
I did enter a short position yesterday, but I got stopped out when it flied up.
However, this pair couldn't finish the day above the trend line.
So, I still believe it will retrace from here until another upmove begins.
Also, there's bearish divergence forming on 4h chart!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad1.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad2.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:59am Jan 29, 2010 9:59am
This trade did reach my first target, but it bounced back up
Still in the trade..


Quoting perstoman
Similar idea with my analysis on USD/CHF.
This pair is testing the long term downtrend trend line atm.
I did enter a short position yesterday, but I got stopped out when it flied up.
However, this pair couldn't finish the day above the trend line.
So, I still believe it will retrace from here until another upmove begins.
Also, there's bearish divergence forming on 4h chart!
  • #5
  • Jan 29, 2010 10:01am Jan 29, 2010 10:01am
Got stopped out initially, but reentered after seeing another topping formation at 1.054 area.
Even though bearish divergence looks very promising, I am not super confident with this trade, since Eur/Usd has just broke 1.39area.
However, I have a feeling that if this divergence plays out, then this pair will move down significantly.

Quoting perstoman
After seeing USD/CHF getting rejected at the previous high, I sold this pair.
Possible 1st target is circled on the chart.
There's no doubt that we are in a somewhat strong uptrend, but I also see that USD/CHF had not retraced for a quite a time.
So, let's see if my first trade works out!
  • #6
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:52am Feb 2, 2010 12:52am
Looking back at my previous chart, I see that I did enter somewhat correctly and was making green pips until the trend continued up.
So, I am rethinking about how I can play divergences with minimum risks.
I will find divergences on higher time-frames, and enter a trade, when I see a break of trendlines on smaller time-frames.
The second chart shows the example of entering a trade with less risks than my very first trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad1.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:27pm Feb 3, 2010 8:27pm
Depending on tonite's data from the US, I believe we could see USD/JPY moving up higher to my first target of 91.77, where we've seen cluster of sellers last time. (Maybe we need to clearly break 91.10 level first.)
The good part is that we have touched the 50% retracement level, and seems to be clearly turning the trend back to the upside. Also, USD/JPY has retested the broken downward trendline last nite.

My ultimate target is 95 and 100 until the end of 2nd quarter this year!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #8
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:05pm Apr 27, 2010 7:05pm
After being in forex trading for approx 2 yrs, I felt I was becoming a better trader not just technically but mentally. However, whenever I make a dumb decision to enter a long term trade, which I expect the price of certain pair to go against the long term trend, I end up adding too much of my account into one trade. At the end, I end up bailing out with huge loss or a margin call.
From now on, I am going to not enter "a long term trade" but only trade based on my trade setups.

Some thoughts on trading:
Supply and demand
buy at support and sell at resistance
drop base rally-where demand is
rally base drop-where supply is

SL&MM are the most important rules in trading

Follow my own rule
Focus on fibs, S/R, candle stick patter and PA

Patience is the key to success
  • #9
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:28pm Apr 27, 2010 7:28pm
All three trendlines were broken down and I was still too stubborn to change my bias...
no more explanations needed see chart below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #10
  • Apr 28, 2010 2:04am Apr 28, 2010 2:04am
Quick profit on breakout to downside
Out with 5pips...not that great but wasn't willing to risk earlier profits.
Also the price is bouncing right back out to either test the broken trendline or continue its up move from this morning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #11
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:12am Apr 28, 2010 11:12am
Had a horrible week holding losing trades.
I was planning to build long term long position on Euro, which was nonsense from the beginning screwed me up.
From now on, I am forgetting about long term positions and focusing only on intraday/short-term trading.
No losing trades will be left open overnite.

Well, 3weeks into trading with my new fund and I am already down 60%...
However, I know that I can recover that loss soon and I am confident I will.

No regret on closing all of my losing trades today.
  • #12
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:37am Apr 28, 2010 11:37am
1. When entering a trade, enter 3 lots
2. SL must be set to previous high/low
3. When in profit by 10-20pips, close 1 lot
4. When I believe price is moving in my favor, place SL to BE
5. Close 1 lot at initial target point
6. Let the 1 lot run until 2*tp

*I will be entering trades based on my 15chart signals/breakouts
  • #13
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:14pm Apr 28, 2010 8:14pm
Think smarter and trade smarter!

Starting a new day with my brain fresh.
Once again, I learned the most important lesson "SL&MM"

I can do this and I will do this!
  • #14
  • May 4, 2010 9:26pm May 4, 2010 9:26pm
Closely watching three trendlines drawn here.
If it breaks upside, then my first tp is the blue shaded area.
or if it breaks downside, then previous low becomes my tp.

However, looking at how G/U is holding up relatively well compared to E/U, I am leaning toward break to the upside.

This will be my trade for today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g%u.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #15
  • May 4, 2010 11:55pm May 4, 2010 11:55pm
Looking at 4h tf, I still see a major downtrend...no reversal signs at all
With this momentum, G/U will form triple bottom at 1.479ish area by the end of this week.
However, I am still playing this dangerous game of picking bottoms and tops...dunno why I am still doing this...maybe it will be my last time...Ok

on 30min tf, g/u broke the important support area at 1.515ish and slipped to 1.509ish till the market realized it was too oversold and jumped back up to 1.517ish.

I am not familiar with UK politics or its economy, but by just looking at this 30min chart, G/U could go back up to 1.52ish area to test the resistance before moving further down.

Maybe this is what I want to see.

but if we can gather enough momentum to break resistance at 1.517ish, then surely we can see 1.52area by LD or NY open.


*Invalidated only if the lower trendline on 30min chart is broken
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: g%u30m.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #16
  • May 5, 2010 3:10am May 5, 2010 3:10am
It did go to my favor and went up to today's pv...
but it turned right back down after seeing some sellers up there at 1.517 area
Now, price is back down to 1.5125ish...
Strong down candles on 30m/1h tfs.

Although the market is selling at the moment, I believe it will have to fight off of many buyers down at this level. Unless the lower trendline is broken and the last nite's low is taken out, I am staying bullish on this pair.

Next two 30m candles will tell me where this pair is gonna go to.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g%u30m.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #17
  • May 5, 2010 5:27am May 5, 2010 5:27am
First it has to drop to check if there was enough buyer, then it took off to test the daily pv once again.

Now I have closed a half of my position at +20pips, and the rest is still running till 1.52ish.

However, there seems to be sellers at daily pv. Price back down to 1.515ish.

SL moved up to BE...will wait and see how PA works out
  • #18
  • May 5, 2010 5:37am May 5, 2010 5:37am
U/Chf is showing a very interesting PA...
Basically trading today in a tight range of 50pips...
Unless it breaks to the topside, which I doubt....it would be a great opportunity to short from the top to the bottom of the range.

Need to wait until the price actually comes close to 1.1070area...at least 1.1065

*Basically the same story for E/U, I am not trading that pair until I can see what's really happening there.

*Short position entered at 1.1061(4pips shy of my actual target) SL at 1.1080
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc 5m.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #19
  • May 5, 2010 6:03am May 5, 2010 6:03am
Quoting perstoman
U/Chf is showing a very interesting PA...
Basically trading today in a tight range of 50pips...
Unless it breaks to the topside, which I doubt....it would be a great opportunity to short from the top to the bottom of the range.

Need to wait until the price actually comes close to 1.1070area...at least 1.1065

*Basically the same story for E/U, I am not trading that pair until I can see what's really happening there.

*Short position entered at 1.1061(4pips shy of my actual target) SL at 1.1080
opps....sl hit -19pips on 2 lots so 38pips in loss
  • #20
  • May 5, 2010 8:06am May 5, 2010 8:06am
Quoting perstoman
opps....sl hit -19pips on 2 lots so 38pips in loss
Reentered short and another 20ish pips loss on 2lots...

However, I was able to catch lt break on G/U for 10~15pips on 5lots.
I got out too early and I have to admit that getting out was a bad choice!!!
It has dropped 20+ more pips from the level where I chickened out.

Well, could have been a different story, if only price had bounced right back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g%u30m.gif Size: 17 KB
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