I believe that to use the software successfully, you must already have a sound trading methodology in place. This is substantiated by a number of comments above.
I’ve been in this business for almost 15 years and have seen a number of s/w packages come and go. Some were good, some bad. Some, even when good, would only work for certain types of traders. A case in point is when I mentioned that Fiji might want to consider reviewing “Elliott Wave Analyzer”, he initially thought this s/w to be too subjective in its interpretation (I can't find that message anymore, has it been deleted?). That’s fine, but it’s been working fine for a good number of people including myself in the past. Just like finding the right trading methodology, it’s not a case of one size fits all. Each trader has to do his or her own due diligence.
My observations (earlier msg and below) that it would be tough to use the outputs on their own successfully are not meant to mislead, as Fiji suggested, but rather to inform and/or to elicit comments.
In the following, I chose 10 pips as an arbitrary number to see how close the actual high/low came to within the predicted high/low. The purpose is to see if the data would stand on its own. If not, would I want to use it to enhance my own existing trading methodology and if so, exactly what aspects of VantagePoint’s daily report would I use?
Findings on EURUSD:
Historical data spanning Sep.15/05 to Dec.7/05:
59 trading days -- of which the last two weeks (just when I happened to install the s/w) were the worst for predictions.
Number of days the direction of the market was predicted right (Index Indicator): 20
N.B. Fiji agrees here: “It was also from that information that I determined that the index indicator on its own was not sufficient to determine trend.”
Number of days that the actual high came to within 10 pips of the predicted high: 18
Number of days that the actual low came to within 10 pips of the predicted low: 7
Number of days that both the predicted high and low fell to within 10 pips: 4
(note that either side of the actual high or low are counted, otherwise results would be even lower)
Over the last two weeks that I’ve been using the software, the above would show zip except for one instance of the actual low coming to within 10 pips of the predicted low.
Average difference in pips between predicted high and actual high: 33
Average difference in pips between predicted low and actual low: 32
Would anybody conclude that based on this information you can go ahead and safely trade without further analysis and/or a working system already on hand?? That's why I said results have been mediocre.
To comment on earlier remarks:
Fiji: “Personally I've been busy with the PF lately and cannot comment on recent market activity. My guess is that I'd have made money.”
We’ll never know just how Fiji might have fared over the last two weeks. Based strictly on using VantagePoint’s output, one would have had a tough time making any money.
Fiji: “How you can report mediocre results unless you are talking about your own trading abilities?”
My purpose was to take VantagePoint’s results at face value and see just how accurate they were, regardless of what trading methodology I use. This is where the software, as the reports clearly show, falls short over the last two weeks. As I said in my initial message, the s/w’s predictions ended up throwing off my trading system, which is based on daily, 4H and 1H charts using Mark McRae’s “sure fire forex” and James16’s price action, both to whom I am deeply grateful. How my observations based strictly on the s/w’s output could possibly be a comment on my own trading abilities is beyond me. Then again, so is the Fiji’s “I've been trying to coach you on that issue” response, not to mention the derogatory next sentence “it does not seem to be sinking in but someday it may.” Kindly avoid patronizing me – I don’t care for it.
Fiji: “When you make statements that point people in the wrong direction I think it is detrimental to other traders who come along and read what you say because it is misleading. You stated that you expected something from the software that it did not give you. That is not the software’s fault.”
When you purchase anything, from a tootsie roll to a new car, you expect a certain result, don’t you? In this case, I certainly expected the predictions to be better than they have been. How is this misleading? Why should I not have expected better results? If the predictions would have been amazing, I would have gladly reported that too. It just wasn’t the case. Don’t shoot the messenger. I’ll keep analyzing and if I can come to any other conclusion, I will be posting so in the future.
I’ve been in this business for almost 15 years and have seen a number of s/w packages come and go. Some were good, some bad. Some, even when good, would only work for certain types of traders. A case in point is when I mentioned that Fiji might want to consider reviewing “Elliott Wave Analyzer”, he initially thought this s/w to be too subjective in its interpretation (I can't find that message anymore, has it been deleted?). That’s fine, but it’s been working fine for a good number of people including myself in the past. Just like finding the right trading methodology, it’s not a case of one size fits all. Each trader has to do his or her own due diligence.
My observations (earlier msg and below) that it would be tough to use the outputs on their own successfully are not meant to mislead, as Fiji suggested, but rather to inform and/or to elicit comments.
In the following, I chose 10 pips as an arbitrary number to see how close the actual high/low came to within the predicted high/low. The purpose is to see if the data would stand on its own. If not, would I want to use it to enhance my own existing trading methodology and if so, exactly what aspects of VantagePoint’s daily report would I use?
Findings on EURUSD:
Historical data spanning Sep.15/05 to Dec.7/05:
59 trading days -- of which the last two weeks (just when I happened to install the s/w) were the worst for predictions.
Number of days the direction of the market was predicted right (Index Indicator): 20
N.B. Fiji agrees here: “It was also from that information that I determined that the index indicator on its own was not sufficient to determine trend.”
Number of days that the actual high came to within 10 pips of the predicted high: 18
Number of days that the actual low came to within 10 pips of the predicted low: 7
Number of days that both the predicted high and low fell to within 10 pips: 4
(note that either side of the actual high or low are counted, otherwise results would be even lower)
Over the last two weeks that I’ve been using the software, the above would show zip except for one instance of the actual low coming to within 10 pips of the predicted low.
Average difference in pips between predicted high and actual high: 33
Average difference in pips between predicted low and actual low: 32
Would anybody conclude that based on this information you can go ahead and safely trade without further analysis and/or a working system already on hand?? That's why I said results have been mediocre.
To comment on earlier remarks:
Fiji: “Personally I've been busy with the PF lately and cannot comment on recent market activity. My guess is that I'd have made money.”
We’ll never know just how Fiji might have fared over the last two weeks. Based strictly on using VantagePoint’s output, one would have had a tough time making any money.
Fiji: “How you can report mediocre results unless you are talking about your own trading abilities?”
My purpose was to take VantagePoint’s results at face value and see just how accurate they were, regardless of what trading methodology I use. This is where the software, as the reports clearly show, falls short over the last two weeks. As I said in my initial message, the s/w’s predictions ended up throwing off my trading system, which is based on daily, 4H and 1H charts using Mark McRae’s “sure fire forex” and James16’s price action, both to whom I am deeply grateful. How my observations based strictly on the s/w’s output could possibly be a comment on my own trading abilities is beyond me. Then again, so is the Fiji’s “I've been trying to coach you on that issue” response, not to mention the derogatory next sentence “it does not seem to be sinking in but someday it may.” Kindly avoid patronizing me – I don’t care for it.
Fiji: “When you make statements that point people in the wrong direction I think it is detrimental to other traders who come along and read what you say because it is misleading. You stated that you expected something from the software that it did not give you. That is not the software’s fault.”
When you purchase anything, from a tootsie roll to a new car, you expect a certain result, don’t you? In this case, I certainly expected the predictions to be better than they have been. How is this misleading? Why should I not have expected better results? If the predictions would have been amazing, I would have gladly reported that too. It just wasn’t the case. Don’t shoot the messenger. I’ll keep analyzing and if I can come to any other conclusion, I will be posting so in the future.
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, this alone is worth the price of admission, (as always YMMV) ...
A totally different way from the way I trade; I’m looking forward to having a closer look at your approach. 
) , i.e. where predicted low was close to actual low on an uptrend day and vice-versa. I set out to find if there was a way to filter out the days when the report turned out to be off. I spent a bit of time over the week-end looking at different combinations of the report's neural indicator output and here’s the gist of what I found using sample historical EURUSD data from Sep15/05 to Dec07/05: