As anticipated, TSF Mavin method would have registered a loss today had we been trading. After getting close to a win, price ultimately failed to close above the 148.99 resistance despite 7 consecutive bars touched or exceeded that level. In the end it has collapsed back, touching our stoploss level along the way. Price might succeed on a reattack later today, or not... Doesn't much matter. For now TSF Mavin focuses only on the first fully qualified bar each day. So for this method the day is over... And let's not forget, we weren't supposed to be trading today anyway. Win or lose today, we will be trading tomorrow. But now we go into tomorrow knowing in advance that the odds lean a little more in our favor tomorrow because consecutive losses are very rare with this system (maybe 4 times a year). Two days of not trading leaves us at break even, while had we traded these questionable days we would have been down a net of 31 pips. So we are certainly out ahead of where we otherwise would be. I'll post a marked up chart in a few hours after I sleep. Have a good night all.
This was a Do NOT Trade day, and the MPC Statement from the day before did not result in a notional losing trade day... which conditionally disqualifies today for trading (Rule addition #1).
22 Jan2010 is a new day and will be an authorized trading day, with a higher probability of TSF Mavin generating a winning trade.
Method trading results remain 22 wins and 2 losses (after applying rule addition #1 - as it proved it can occasionally predict a losing trade) from the charts I have posted here. Thats 91.6% win rate so far, with 338 net pips, averaging about 14 pips per tradeable day. One day previously counted as a loss (8 January 2010) is not counted as a winner or loser as it no longer qualifies as a tradeable day.
If the current (3am GMT) bar closes down or even it will be a fully qualified TSF Mavin signal bar and a sell stop order will be placed one pip below the low of the bar.
TSF Mavin fully qualified bar has formed and sell stop order is in place at 145.52, take profit 145.32 (or approximately 145.26 for the bid display) and stoploss at 146.03 (or appx 145.97 on the bid). Just waiting for the fill and follow through now.
Price is bouncing around an area I see defined by resistance at about 145.81 and support around 145.55. The support must be broken for the trade to fill as it currently stands, and I always feel a bit more comfortable when price has to get through a support/resistance level to get to an entry or to a stoploss. Having said that, the TSF 19 is in a position that, with the close of a down bar we have an opportunity to adjust our pending trade to a more favorable entry (at a higher low, so an earlier entry). I'm happier with this kind of development if after filling price would not have to make a new low to make take profit. But I suspect that will not be the case today, and the better entry will probably force price to successfully pierce support to get to take profit. So I'm a bit nervous about it, but it is what it is. If you start second guessing everything you'll end up not knowing what to do. If you use the method you use it all. So, we sit and wait and watch, but try not to think too hard... but notice if things evolve for or against you. I've seen some trades look like certain losers and suddenly, out of nowhere you make a take profit... And of course there are those upleasant reverse cases too. It happens.
Right now I see three rising bars that don't yet surpass the last falling bar, which I think is a bearish pattern... But we'll see. W & W -- Wait and Watch. It will be what it will be.
Since my last post price has managed to climb above the 145.81 resistance. We will see in a moment if it can close above that price. It is another bullish bar and it looks like it will pull the TSF 19 up enough to not allow an improved entry price at this time. Our pendding order still stands unfilled, which is fine for now. It will still take quite a bit more to get a bullish setup though, so I don't see that kind of change coming around in the near future (say the next hour or so) although anything is possible. It is much more comfortable sitting and waiting like this when your order hasn't filled yet. A sharp move down from here could pull the TSF 19 to the bottom of the ribbon and reactivate to possibility of an improved entry, so we'll keep watch for that. Right now the market is just meandering up. I don't think it is committed yet. The new bar has opened and price is now testing support on the old resistance at 145.81. Next resistance is around 146.05. We've been seeing alot of activity in the 6am and 6:30am bars recently, so a market move could be right around the corner.
TSF 19 is moving to the bottom position on the ribbon more easily than I anticipated. It looks like there is a chance to move the pending orders to a better entry if this current bar closes bearish. Watch carefully.
Okay, got our improved entry at 145.79. Order was filled quickly after. Now waiting for the follow through. Take profit is 145.59 (or about 145.53 on the bid feed), and stoploss is sitting at about 146.30 (or 146.24 on the bid).
Well there you go... a loser. On a most unlikely of days, but hey, it happens like that sometimes. So, fortunately, we didn't trade yesterday or we would have 2 losses in a row. I'll be posting the chart in the morning. Today's result put together with yesterday's result suggests very good news for tomorrow... but we'll have to wait and see how that develops. One day at a time.
Sorry everybody... I've been stunned by the 3 consecutive losses the method has posted... including yesterday.
While this has happened in the past, I was getting comfortable that it was particularly rare. But I realize that even if it happens 2 or 3 times a year, that is unacceptable to me personally. And this is why I started this thread, in the hope that someone might offer some help. But while many are reading, few of you are posting.
So, over the weekend I continued to brainstorm, trying to find something that might shake some more pips out of this tool. The good news is, I think I might be on to something. I am however a little reluctant to share it here though because, unlike other threads, I'm finding I myself am doing all the heavy lifting in the further development of this method. But in the end, if that is how it is to be, so be it... on the other hand, if anybody has anything to add, please feel free.
Having said all of that, what I am just beginning to fiddle with is the concept that there needs to be a further qualification to a currently qualifying bar. Namely, it needs to form such that if an order is placed it will either be a new extreme price for the day (high or low according to the current signal), or it must be at least 20 pips from the days extreme. If it doesn't meet this criteria it is not a fully qualified bar and no orders will be placed.
With this new criteria in place it looks as though it qualifies further trades through the day. The issue is that the stoploss needs to expand to about 70 pips, but you can move your take profit out to 30 pips.
Also, I think it is possible to re-enter on an existing trend if the TSF19 recrosses the EMA 20 and then moves back to make a fully qualified signal. Similarly, it seems that a price movement back to within 15 pips of the EMA 20 that then returns to signal a trade can also be safely re-entered.
I will be back testing these new qualifications over the next few days and may not have time to make postings for some time. I will be watching for comments any of you might have though, so again, feel free to chime in.
The revised TSF Mavin rules I outlined above, would have resulted in 2 winning 30 pip trades so far today on GBPJPY. The first was just an "obvious" ride on the middle of a very big move. But the second was a re-entry after a large recovery bar and consolidation that I think most people would not have expected to see. TSF Mavin "Improved" though, would have made it easy.
I am very excited by this. I believe there are an average of 2 good trades a day... sometimes more. Today we have two good trades and London is just opening. I do look forward to reviewing this and playing it forward as I think in provides lots of opportunity.
After I made my screen capture a bar has just formed that actually crossed the 20 EMA. That means we have another reset for the day. So we can look for a new qualifying bar (the setup).
On the attached chart there are three trades - One that setup yesterday afternoon and closed right before the end of the day, and two more so far today. Remeber, take profit on these is 30 pips, stoploss is 70 pips. Always start evaluating at the start of a new day -- even if you still have an open trade from the previous day. Each day stands on its own. Make sure to apply the new rule for bars not qualifying if they are too close to the daily high or low without actually being the new high or low. Their extreme must be the day's high or low, or they must be at least 20 pips short of the day's high or low to fully qualify now.
Sell orders are placed 1 pip below the fully qualified bar. Buy orders are placed 1 pip plus spread above the fully qualified bar (my charts are from IBFX where my spread is typically 5 or 6 pips... I usually just figure on 6 pips -- So my orders fill at 7 pips above the fully qualified bar).
The TSF ribbon is currently oriented to allow a new sell signal. TSF19 is also below EMA 20, allowing the sell signal. Price has climbed back up to touch the EMA 20, allowing us to take new signals as they might form.
The missing piece now is a bearish bar. If we get one that has a low that doesn't exceed 144.26, we will have a fully qualified setup for a new sell trade. Otherwise, we need it to set a new low for the day to qualify.
I would personally prefer if the signal came allowing an entry above 144.42, which would allow me to exit without setting a new low -- but there is still plenty of time in the US market for us to set new lows for the day.
I hope to open a position before I have to go to work...
Sell stop order is in place 1 pip below the close of the last bar. Now we wait for the fill, or possibly an improved entry.
It is always possible that the market will just run away from this setup too. And that is perfectly fine. This order will remain in place through the day as long as there is no improved sell signal, or a reversed buy signal. If it doesn't execute by the end of the day or isn't superceded by improvement or reverse it will cancel at midnight GMT.
