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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #212,961
  • Edited 1:05am Jan 25, 2010 1:03am | Edited 1:05am
gj4h 1w
Something like this.
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  • #212,962
  • Jan 25, 2010 1:20am Jan 25, 2010 1:20am
Just a heads up. Bearish Divergence on 15m TF.
  • #212,963
  • Edited 2:16am Jan 25, 2010 2:06am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I've been jumping in and out of the sharp moves down, but i've been confused by the PA. Here's why.

Attached a 4hr chart showing steadily declining volume since last Friday. Last Friday's volume looked very much like buying volume. The volume bar on the big move down was low, much much lower than I would have expected. The preceeding bars may have been Distribution, but looking at last Friday, i'm not convinced.
Almost looks like some very big players knew the Obama news and what it would be. I would have expected a ton of volume on that downmove...
UKDayTrader, Am just catching up on Friday's/weekends postings and saw your analysis here. I do appreciate your VSA input - and it tends to be spot on & timely, but I don't see the same type of volume trend or (lack of) spikes/potential stopping volume - I think your broker's volume is misleading you. Don't know who that is, but when I bring up my citibank liquidity provider view, the H4 volume between Jan 15 & Jan 22 in fact increased, and there was significant volume on the big downbar you mention. Similarly the H1 chart showed what looks like stopping volume on the 13:00 GMT (red) downbar, but then the 22:00 new low showed absolutely no interest (albeit that was v. late & on a Friday).

I agree with all your conclusions, and can fumble my way thru some VSA, but wanted to point out that your broker isn't likely a good indicator of what the big boys are doing, or overall volume in general, since, we don't know who's trading with them (I doubt the big boys are). In comparisons I've done with volume, citibank as a big FX player has volumes very similar in bar to bar distinction compared to esignal, and, I would think it's representative of some smart/big boy players, if not citi themselves. MY worry with using smaller/smallish brokers, it can only show their member's volumes, which, could be completely whacked. I was using a demo for Akmos out of Russia for a few weeks, and their volume portrayal was dismal, ie., 40x less than even an FxPro. Just wanted to let you know on the discrepancies. theCollectivefx.com I believe still gives out demo accounts; I would think the best VSA comes from the likes of getting the best LP views ; in fact, I'm off to dbfx to see how their volume compares.
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  • #212,964
  • Jan 25, 2010 2:43am Jan 25, 2010 2:43am
i'm looking for a retrace below 147.15 , seems now we are correcting 5th wave, and i think today we are closing bullish , tommorow is kaboom , to up 146.20-146.45 is a nice area to retrace , more down move excpected
Making money not by predicting just by following ...
  • #212,965
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:22am Jan 25, 2010 3:22am
Can someone tell me why this sucker is not going down?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #212,966
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:26am Jan 25, 2010 3:26am
Quoting PandoraBox
Bro, how about if I told you ...wave C already completed. Now we are in wave 1 up
huh?
  • #212,967
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:31am Jan 25, 2010 3:31am
Quoting Gucc
huh?
I think he's saying you should forget whatever bias you have. Just imagine for a minute Obama's speech last week was an elaborate shakeout designed for the big players to buy cheaper.
  • #212,968
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:32am Jan 25, 2010 3:32am
Quoting Beljevina
UKDayTrader, Am just catching up on Friday's/weekends postings and saw your analysis here. I do appreciate your VSA input - and it tends to be spot on & timely, but I don't see the same type of volume trend or (lack of) spikes/potential stopping volume - I think your broker's volume is misleading you. Don't know who that is, but when I bring up my citibank liquidity provider view, the H4 volume between Jan 15 & Jan 22 in fact increased, and there was significant volume on the big downbar you mention. Similarly the H1 chart showed what looks like...
Thank you for this, very useful. I realise that any MT4 vol is not as accurate as say Esignal. The question is to try to find the most accurate MT4 feed there is. Hmmmm...
  • #212,969
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:33am Jan 25, 2010 3:33am
Sold @ 1.4580, lets see where is goes
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #212,970
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:41am Jan 25, 2010 3:41am
Quoting ukdaytrader
i think he's saying you should forget whatever bias you have. Just imagine for a minute obama's speech last week was an elaborate shakeout designed for the big players to buy cheaper.
bro try ifcmarkets there volume is close to interbank..the problem is there platform dont allow custom indicator but fast execution.AND THEY OPEN 1HR BEFORE MARKET OPEN SO U CAN TAKE FAST EXECUTION IF THE GAP GOES UR WAY.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #212,971
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:45am Jan 25, 2010 3:45am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I think he's saying you should forget whatever bias you have. Just imagine for a minute Obama's speech last week was an elaborate shakeout designed for the big players to buy cheaper.

its possible..im still add more shorts at 146.20/25..if we go past 147.20,then the bear move is on hold ..i dont know..i wont let it go to 139..my exit is at 142,,and see if we reach 139,,and hopefully we get a retrace back to 149

the COT index reading on the jpy is at 0 ... it mean extreme bullish
  • #212,972
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:07am Jan 25, 2010 4:07am
Good morning,

I just bought GBP JPY at 14589. The pair is building momemtum after a divergence low last Friday. Regards,
  • #212,973
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:12am Jan 25, 2010 4:12am
Quoting donfriday
bro try ifcmarkets there volume is close to interbank..the problem is there platform dont allow custom indicator but fast execution.AND THEY OPEN 1HR BEFORE MARKET OPEN SO U CAN TAKE FAST EXECUTION IF THE GAP GOES UR WAY.
Thanks, will have a look at it.
  • #212,974
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:25am Jan 25, 2010 4:25am
look at this ,at the NZD/JPY.. a diamnd top formation.. looks all good for a huge drop..
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  • #212,975
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:26am Jan 25, 2010 4:26am
Quoting quecee5
Weekly and Monthly gann ar'd 143.70 - 144 area please post yr chart with weekly and monthly gann. . .
i found the problem now....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #212,976
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:34am Jan 25, 2010 4:34am
Quoting donfriday
i found the problem now....
i still not found the problem. Not same with Q setup
  • #212,977
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:48am Jan 25, 2010 4:48am
Quoting special0nefx
i still not found the problem. Not same with Q setup
you are using Gann hilo activator Q is using Gann Hilo....so if u have the to add it on your chart u will see ...see it
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #212,978
  • Jan 25, 2010 5:15am Jan 25, 2010 5:15am
Quoting gl4di4t0r
i'm looking for a retrace below 147.15 , seems now we are correcting 5th wave, and i think today we are closing bullish , tommorow is kaboom , to up 146.20-146.45 is a nice area to retrace , more down move excpected
Agreed, max retrace would be a touch of the daily 5 sma then down from there. Daily 5 sma sits at 146.85 area which we should see plenty of supply. . .

However there should also be plenty of supply sitting at ar'd 146.10/30 area as well. . . After that I expect to see a continuation of this move lower as indicated by daily chart. . .

Target now set at 143.80/143.00. If breached with a daily close below 143, expect 141.50/140 as a target to start. . .
  • #212,979
  • Jan 25, 2010 5:39am Jan 25, 2010 5:39am
Quoting donfriday
you are using Gann hilo activator Q is using Gann Hilo....so if u have the to add it on your chart u will see ...see it
I use Gann Hilo , i just rename it cos from Q. But still the month Gann is not like yours. Mine Gann is above the candle price but yours is below the candle ... zzz can i have ur template?
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  • #212,980
  • Jan 25, 2010 6:12am Jan 25, 2010 6:12am
I am short GBPJPY now at an average of 145.80. First profit target is quite far away at around 143.60-ish. Let's see how it goes...
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