AUD traders thread

Hi guys,

This is the beginning of a new thread for all AUD related pairs.

Would like to emphasise the importance of of sharing your thoughts, analysis and charts.

Big dick traders, random calls, hindsight calls etc will not be permitted.

Please post your thoughts.

I will share my longer term thoughts tonight before the London open.

I copy the thoughts from ak4x on the EU Redux thread here:

Why another AU Thread? Some of the most compelling reasons to do so are…

New Threads now have certain permission privileges granted to the Thread Starter to allow who posts and who doesn't. The original AUDUSD thread starter “cvarnado” has been MIA now for over 5 years and therefore none of those Controls are applicable. I believe it's ultimately more productive to Start New than Fix Old.

The original “AUDUSD” thread has of late steadily deteriorated into what many traders have often found to be counterproductive. Disruptive members seemingly Roam at will and any attempt to reign them in gets the restraining members flamed in response. Meanwhile we All have to deal with their silly issues and the resulting Disruption which can and on occasion has gone on for weeks or even months. Ignore lists get longer and longer, but it doesn't matter cuz they constantly get quoted anyway. New traders have to wade thru yards of Drivel and serious traders get fed up with the Drama while wondering why they’re still hanging a’rd. Several have decided it's not worth it and all but disappear.

So, can this or any other new thread survive in this environment? I hope so, cuz the old one is Broken imo. It may have a good day here and there, but one glitch and it shows its age pretty quick.

What will it take to make this one work then?
Steady Participation from those who Think they have Something to Offer, those who Actually Do have Something To Offer, those who have Nothing to offer but do have Questions, those who want a congenial place to Hang Out and finally those who mostly just need a Safe Place to get some assistance while they Cycle in and out of the Forex Blender trying to gain some Traction in their learning curve.

I Hope a new thread started AND supported by both established members and newer ones with a Consensus of what we’re all willing to Put Up With and what we’re not can find a Place here at FF. I’m pulling the trigger, You can decide to Long it or Short it.

If this thread does Die, then so be it. The forum will have spoken, and Moving On remains an option for everyone. This thread will either accomplish its purpose or join the others in the Pile of Discarded and Forgotten Threads soon enough. With all that said…

The Room is Open...

Guidelines as things currently stand:

Rules 1 thru 3 …
They’re pretty simple and can be found in the User Guide at the bottom of every web page.

Cleanup Reports or “Urgent Action Required” reports by a senior member regarding Spam and other issues will still be sent to Twee as always at the discretion of the reporting member. Nothing changed there.

Oversize charts that blow up the thread…
Resize them, Delete them or else... This can be a Bigger Annoyance than one might possibly imagine. Check out This Link for Info on how to properly post charts and attachments. No excuses for Oversize charts or pics.

Ridicule and Insults…
Repeat offenders will wind up getting Blocked sooner or later.

Trolls and Borderline Disruptors who want to fly just under the threshold of actually breaking the rules…
If it’s your intention to just Disrupt, Derail, or Divert whatever the active flows of discussion are according to this definition of a Troll, keep your bags Packed as you won’t be here very long.

Noob Posters, Traders, and all other Clueless wanderers…
Relax and Don’t Worry about it; you’ll have to work at convincing us that you’re one of the above class of Foul Cretins and Miscreants and not simply Clueless. Most of us are smart enough to know the difference.

We want a Congenial and Productive thread that can contribute to helping someone move forward and assume you do as well.

AUD/USD and related issues are obviously the focus here, but unless something gets really Off The Rails, ain't no sense in getting all bothered about it. We’re Traders, and sometimes we all get bored or someone wants to give a heads up on something… or just have some fun

The Room is the best Judge of that at any given time anyway. And with that…

The Room is Open.

so what are yalls predictions on the AUD/USD triangle hm?

Hi Sinner

I hope your efforts to start this new room are successful.
My knowledge of forex is limited so mostly I will be watching from the sidelines. Hopefully a few months down the track I'll be able to add some useful information to the thread.

I'm concentrating on the aud/usd so looking forward to some analysis from experienced traders.

Barra

Hi defariak,

Triangle is generally a continuation pattern - so I will only be willing to play breaks south of that upwards trending line.

On the hourly - I am looking at 90687 (50 fib) as a possible level to be hit during the Hong Kong session. As is usual for AUDUSD - there is talk on the wire of China buying the dips. Most of the big dogs are looking to "sell rallies" so we might have a little way to go up (0.90942 - 0.91248?) before any fresh offers emerge.

On an intraday basis I am waiting to see how price reacts around 0.9058 before "buying a dip".

if you look at the 4 hr chart though this could just be a correction of the larger uptrend seeing as its hitting on the 50 fib lvl atm

Hi again defariak - it is an interesting name btw.

H4 uptrend was broken 2 days ago as your chart clearly shows. This triangle is to me a continuation pattern as well so any upside will be with a bearish re-test bias in my mind (sell the rallies).

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...rical_triangle

From my concern the re-test/breakdown of H4 trendline which occurred on Friday across almost all the USD pairs was valid and bearish. I will not regain a bullish bias until a break and consistent NY trading session above 0.9138 (current daily 14LWMA).

The rise on back of todays worse than expected PPI is interpreted by me as a short squeeze from Fridays oversold conditions.

0.90687 level hit to the pip as I type.

Took +10 ticks from 0.906 - 0.907 after a good PA reaction as mentioned above. Nice small intraday trades can help pay for longer term ideas so I like to take a few ticks here and there when possible.

I have added a small lot short from the 50 fib mentioned above (shown in chart) - plan on scaling in more at the next fib level if we go higher.

Otherwise I am pretty much done until London opens. See you then!

Building an AUDNZD long position into the last 30 minutes of Sydney session. The spread can be a bit wide on this pair and it is very rangey so I don't like to play it often. But I have been waiting for a few months now to try a long and keep seeming to miss my opportunities.

Today I have bought at what I hope is an accumulation level (so there might be some drawdown before a takeoff). My main thoughts are that AU economy in more robust shape than NZ, NZ less likely to raise rates, continued Chinese demand for Australian commods should create further rift between the two currencies.

Targetting 1.3 and beyond (yes - a long term trade for me - otherwise the spread cost is not worth it).

Open 1.267 (just below monthly MR1 with a spread of 20!) stops at 1.258.

aud/usd showing fading rsi

In the hopes of generating some actual thoughtful discussion on the AUD - rather than the literal SHIT that is being typed in the other thread I have included my charts for 4 of the 6 major AUD pairs I watch. I will include GBPAUD and AUDSGD charts tomorrow before the London open.

First on the list - AUDUSD:

AUDUSD surprised many in the first week of 2010 trading by mounting a strong rally to the 0.93 level. I actually anticipated this in the EURUSD thread "short squeeze into the New Year now that everyone is bearish".

The question is was this the resumption of "risk rally" or just one last shakeout before we tank?

I think this week will be the "decider". We have an extremely strong confluence of the 50 fib from the last engulfing wave and the current daily "senkou B" (top of the cloud). Hinting to us: AUDUSD could range around this area for a while to come unless we react strongly to this level. As mentioned above - I have scaled in a few small shorts when todays PA hit this level and may add more if we go to the 61.8 fib. Stops for longer term shorts residing at 0.9277.

As I mentioned recently in the AUDUSD thread in my "medium term" outlook for this pair - the key to watch here is the exotic carry pairs EURAUD and EURNZD - they should give advance warning of any decline in risk appetite.



Speaking of which - EURAUD:

It seems almost impossible - but this pair could have possibly gained some friction and be building a base to relaunch a long and arduous northward journy. The main issue with EURAUD is it just keeps going down! I am putting 1.5590 as my bullish support (close of high vol bullish outside bar on the daily) - as long as we stay above this I think we could be witnessing the carry trade begin to unwind. Moves like this are simply unsustainable (witness the USDX since Jan 09). I will be waiting to see some confirmation - but eager to build long term longs on this pair.



Next up - AUDJPY:

Hopefully for all the AJ traders out there you are finding this one very easy to track and trade. Nice clean order flow on the daily with pronounced reversals of any trend should allow you to scale in and scale out of carry trade positions.
For me 80 is the penultimate level in this pair - above we remain bullish to buy on dips and below we remain bearish to stay away from this pair (costs too much to short!). Currently the 4/8 MML octave and 50 fib confluence are providing support from a USDJPY induced turnaround.

I am expecting this pair to continue to defy expectations (remember how long it stayed under 80 while AUDUSD was over 90?) and remain above 80 in the near-medium term and only join the bear party once the rest of the JPY gang are well underway.



Lastly for today - AUDNZD:

Please see above post for analysis - I will only include chart below.

Alright - well the London open is in and I have added a position to EURAUD long (or from my broker: AUDEUR short).

This leaves 3 positions currently - all long term - AUDUSD short from the 50 fib level I mentioned today - AUDNZD long from 1.267 and AUDEUR short from 0.6938.

Have a great day traders - I will post again at some point during the Tokyo/Hong Kong session tomorrow (or tonight again if something spectacular happens).

Hi Sinner,

I have been posting my analysis and trade setups on the other thread ,
hopefully I will start posting here...

Would be good to ensure no random calls are made on the thread as a thread just becomes vile....

Good Luck

So it's just me in here then is it. Threads are only interesting if they are updated 50 times a day to talk about every 2 pip move?


Scaling in completely unnecessary. Captured the entire weekly range with a few 10 and 20 pip SLs.



EA and AN longs stopped out for BE+2.

See you next week.

Ok i'm going to give this a go. The following are short term (6-12hr) positions (which i think is relatively conservative) i have set up.

R3 - 0.9137
R2 - 0.9092
R1 - 0.9018
Piv- 0.8973
S1 - 0.8899
S2 - 0.8854

Currently @ 0.8930
Senario1 - Price moves up, see chart for reason i'll be placing shorts at 0.9035 SL 0.9050. Higher risk will be placing shorts at ~0.8990 SL 0.9005

Senario2 - safer option is placing longs at ~0.8840 and SL 0.8810 and TP 0.8890. Here i'm taking advantage of a possible stop hunt, and i think is a pretty safe range to be in, given past history.

As I mentioned RE the AUDJPY 80 level:

From forexlive this morning (attrib. Sean Lee):

The 200-day MA proved a bridge too far for the AUD/JPY bears and the cross has jumped from 79.15 to 79.70 in a little over 30 minutes. The retail market was not convinced by the move lower in the interbank market, and with interest rates set to rise in Australia again tomorrow, they saw these levels as excellent buying opportunitie

Thanks for your thoughts BobbyBob. Hope your trades are going well!

Further to my thoughts on AUDJPY and the 80 "line in the sand", I have decided to put my money where my mouth is this evening and buy a few small AUDJPY lots at 79.5. As mentioned, no issues with this pair, just only like to trade it to the long side - here is an opportunity to make some carry.

Stops are only 20 below entry, but if we bounce from here I see no reason to exit longs at all.

I am aware this is a contra trend trade - and want to avoid the trite "we are due for a retrace" so I will say this: my conviction in the 80 line on AUDJPY is quite strong and there is a lot of untested "resistance" above (I put in quote marks because we need to test for it to be resistance).

We are currently 50 minutes before the NY open.

Please see my last post. 3/8MML held and then some.

The 80 line is just too psychologically strong for this yield chasing market. Too much 0% money is holding this pair up and I am loving it.

Currently the cost of carry from 79.5 and a 75 pip run up last night from my entry price is keeping me very happy.

Sinner,

You have created a #PH#CandleDivergence 03 indicator and I like it and have been using it. However, I am always late finding it on H4 or daily.
Can you please add an email alert on it if possible. Thanks.

Auddkk
short zone area

All of these pairs are trending strongly and offered great trading opportunities in the last week or two. But this is the time when professionals use extreme patience and discipline in waiting for the next selling opportunity. Notice how the Slow Stochastics, using values of 15,5,5, have not yet come close to the overbought level, which is considered 80 or above. I have circled three occasions on the chart where the indicator did move up to above 80, which signaled a selling opportunity since the direction of the trend was down. We want to wait for the market to reach a point where the odds of a successful trade are better and this is where the use of technical indicators can be of great value.