Alifari's Trading Journal

Started trading forex in January 2008. After few years of struggle and experimenting with numerous strategies, I finally found some success by trading Supply & Demand concept. The goal now is to review my trades on regular basis and fine tune my strategies for consistent profitability.

Whatever little bit I have learned about Supply & Demand concept are from these threads. Thanks to lovejoy80, Kenneth Lee, Balhana, Keroro0o0o, Redsword11

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=288707 (LJ Forex Group - by lovejoy80)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=474155 (LJ Forex Group - PA Only Trades - by lovejoy80)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=311095 (B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee - by Kenneth Lee)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=453118 (Keroro0o0o's S&D + PA trading - by Keroro0o0o's + Posts by Balhana)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=230888 (Price is Everything - by Redsword11)


Update: October 10th 2014

Beside supply & demand concept, I am also trading strategies mentioned in these threads. The reason I added these strategies to my arsenal is that, once you master these patterns, it hardly takes 15 to 30 minutes of daily analysis and have potential for good risk to reward ratio. I think the challenge is to find an edge & make as much as possible before it dies. You can tell me markets are the same but they aren't.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=444458 (Up and Under Price Pattern - by Quidsey)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=287794 (Fail Better - by the_wizard)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=462458 (It's a Small Matter - by hayseed)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723 (Trading with Deadly Accuracy - by WMD)

In MT4 I have separate Profile for each Strategy

1) FTB (First Time Back - SR Level / SD Zone)
2) DRT (Daily Retest)
3) WRT (Weekly Retest)
4) FB (False Break of SR Level)
5) QM (Quasimodo Pattern)
6) SD (Supply & Demand Zones)
7) SR (Support & Resistance Level)
8) TRL (Trendline Touch / Break & Retest)
9) AVS (Average Wave Length)
10) DR (Daily Range)
11) WR (Weekly Range)
12) PA (Price Action - Combination of Higher & Lower Time Frame)
13)123 Pattern (Preempt 123 Pattern)
14) PRQM (Preempt Quasimodo)
15) PRBO (Preempt Breakout)
16) IR (Instant Retest)
17) TBR (Two Bar Reversal at SR or SD)
18) NOSE (Nose Pattern)

Trade Routine & How I Trade:
I am full time trader and on average I take 3 to 4 trades a day that comes to around 20 trades a week. I don't look at one particular time frame and have separate Profile for each strategy with different time frames and I switch back and forth and mark my zones and levels and put a price alert when price is close to level or zone of my interest and reassess the situation and decide whether to place pending order or wait for price action to enter trade or just ignore the trade.

The time frames I review are M15, M30, H1, H4, D1, W1, MO1 (Weekly & Monthly I review every week)

List of Pairs (16 Pairs)

1) AUDUSD
2) EURUSD
3) GBPUSD
4) NZDUSD
5) USDCAD
6) USDJPY
7) AUDJPY
8) EURJPY
9) GBPJPY
10) EURAUD
11) EURCAD
12) EURNZD
13) GBPAUD
14) GBPCAD
15) GBPNZD
16) AUDNZD

My point of view on some trading related topic:

1) Trade Expectancy http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post8721749
2) Recipe for Success http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post8704142
3) Trading Lower Time Frames http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post8598522
4) Risk Tolerance http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post8610684
5) Understanding Price Flow Chart http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post7779820


Useful posts from different sources related to trading:

1) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post8628558
2) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8667020
3) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post8672737
4) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post8694611
5) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post8704313
6) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post8704333
7) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post8557775
8) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8199726
9) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8137170
10) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post7965742
11) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post7984655
12) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7836308
13) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7810849
14) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7793769
15) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post7779803
16) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7779806

My favorite inspirational quotes:

"You have to know your setups and their probabilities. Then, once you see them you must act with conviction and without hesitation"

"I am in competition with no one. I run my own race. I have no desire to play the game of being better than anyone, in any way, shape, or form. I just aim to improve, to be better than I was before. That's me and I'm free"

Keep your ego & emotions aside and then analyze charts and you will see it from different perspective. It doesn't matter whether you missed a trade or you win or lose. Observe price action, make your notes and prepare yourself for the next opportunity. Study every day with the aim of being better today than you were yesterday.

Those studying the market..are studying what someone said instead of what market said about itself" Richard Wyckoff

Education does not end in school. To be successful in life or trading we must never stop learning. The market and the world are constantly advancing and changing and the only way to keep up is to keep learning."

Losing is a learning experience. It teaches you humility. It teaches you to work harder. It's also a powerful motivator" - Yogi Berra

The hard work in trading comes in the preparation. The actual process of trading, however, should be effortless

You just can't beat the person who never gives up

Focus more on the structure and bias of the market, rather than looking for setups. If you are clear on the structure and bias, trade opportunity will reveal itself.

More important than the will to win is the will to prepare - Charlie Munger

Trade Details:

Pair : Eur/Jpy
Time Frame :15 Minutes
Short : 132.85
Take Profit : 132.43 (42 Pips)
Stop Loss : 133.20 (35 Pips)
R/R : 1.20%
Reason : Bearish Outside Bar at Round Number 133.00 with Down
Trend. Entered on break of Bearish Outside Bar.
Result : Winner (42 Pips)

The trade had potential to go another 40 pips (next round number) but I took profit at 132.43 as price reversed twice from 132.40 support in past.

CAD/CHF DAILY TRADE

1) 2 day pinbar off round number 1.000 and swing high
2) Bearish divergence on RSI

Short Entry: 0.9880
SL : 0.9990
TP : 0.9790 (Took take profit early at 0.9813, however price did reached initial take profit)
R/R : 1/1

Here is something I want to share. Every morning before starting to trade, I read these points. I have noticed it helped me a lot while trading. I hope this helps. I would also recommend to read "Trading in the Zone" (by Mark Douglas). It's a wonderful book.

KEY TO SUCCESS
1) TRADE WITH NO FEAR
2) TRADE WITH NO RECKLESSNESS
3) TRADE WITH POSITIVE ATTITUDE
4) TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR EVERY WINNER OR LOSER
5) LIMIT YOUR RISK WITH PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT (1% OR 2% RISK PER TRADE)
6) PRE-DEFINE RISK / CUT LOSSES / TAKE SYSTEMATIC PROFIT
7) DON'T BLAME MARKET FOR LOSSES
8) LOSSES / MISSING OUT ON A TRADE / LEAVING MONEY ON TABLE IS PART OF TRADING
9) LOSSES ARE COST OF DOING BUSINESS
10) ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN - NOTHING IS GRANTED
11) THINK IN PROBABILITIES
12) BE RIGID IN TRADING RULES & FLEXIBLE IN EXPECTATION
13) TRADING IS ALL ABOUT ODDS / HAVING AN EDGE
14) ALWAYS BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROFIT / LOSS AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT EDGE
15) TAKE WHATEVER MARKET IS OFFERING YOU
16) DON’T BE BIAS ON ONE SIDE - KEEP YOUR MIND OPEN FOR BOTH SIDE OF TRADING
17) TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT A GET RICH QUICK SCHEME
18) THERE IS RANDOM DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN WINNERS & LOSERS
19) DON'T GET UPSET AFTER FEW LOSSES - MEASURE YOUR SUCCESS AFTER 50 OR 100 TRADES

Trade Details:

Platform:FxPro

Pair:USD/CAD

Date:1/13/2010

Time Frame:4 Hour

Trade Type:Short

Entry:1.03283

Stop Loss:1.04283

Take Profit:1.02750

Reason:1) Bearish outside bar on 4 hour resistance
2) Descending trendline resistance
3) Round number 1.0400 resistance

Result: Winner (53 Pips)

Trade Details:

Platform: IBFX

Pair: AUD/JPY

Date: 1/15/2010

Time Frame: 1 Hour

Trade Type: Long

Entry: 84.12

Stop Loss: 83.65

Take Profit: 84.58

Reason: 1) Bullish outside bar at round number 84.00

Result: Loser (47 Pips)

* Missed take profit by 3 pips, I should have moved stop to breakeven but was out for some work

Here are charts for trades taken this week.

one more trade this week.

I am back after a gap of few months. During this period I was learning and trying to sharpen my trading skills. From now on, I will post all my trades in this Journal.

Here is one I took today.

15 minute pullback entry

Pair: AUDNZD

Reason: Daily Pivot / 50 fib / Daily Symmetry 460 Pips Order:
Pending Buy Limit at 1.2820 (SL 1.2750 - TP 1.2900)

Pair: AUDUSD Reason:
4 hour breakout and first time back Order:
Market Short Order at 1.0591 (SL 1.0680 - TP 1.0500)

I really enjoyed reading your journal hope you keep posting.

Will try to post as many trades as possible. Thanks for your interest.

Pair: EURUSD

Reason: 1 hour breakout and first time back Order:

Market Short Limit Order at 1.3150 (SL 1.3230 - TP 1.3090)

Edit: Trade Result: TP Hit +60pips

Result: SL Hit -89 Pips

Trade Result: Price reversed at 1.2829, as such ORDER CANCELLED

Here are quotes from successful traders, whom I admire and follow closely. I get lot of inspiration from reading these. Thought I would share these with you.

 

1. Most people like to be smart and show how good they are at catching the top or bottom. I LIKE MAKING MONEY.

1. We all have the same tools, the only difference is I keep my emotions under control, NO MATTER WHAT, if I get excited or feel anything about what is on my screen then, I am not IN CONTROL.

1. At this level, trading is just a thing and I know that I am going to have wins and losses and it does not matter AT ALL. I have no fear ever on any trade because how can you fear what you cannot control or predict, it's just stupid but we are wired from 1000's of years ago when fear = death. You should have fear if your house is on fire, or if you are about to get smashed by a 60k pound truck at a stoplight, you should NEVER fear this dumb market.

1. If you fail at something the 1st time do you jump off the roof or do you control your emotions and try to understand what is going on.

1. Stop being the market whore and taking everything that gets thrown in front of you. Do some back testing and see what works most of the time and trade the good trades, right now your just taking everything all the time.

1. 70% chance to lose before you even get in the trade, add emotion, money management and whatever else is going on brings it to about 80-85%. But as the PRO’S KNOW THEY have to let you WIN a few times or else it's just PRO’S vs. PRO’S and that's no fun.

1. LOL, look at the trend! Why do you think it's going to start going up? Because you want it too? If you are going 60mph in a car and I jump out in front of it do you think it will stop because. I want it too?

1. Got 3 messages so far today about "I can't make money with your system" hell I did not even know I had a system, it's just the way I trade.

1. What surprised me about it all is that it takes time to recognize 'issues'. Reading a book is great, but until that 'moment' happens, nothing is really clear.
   
   
2. Just like the "I want to lose 10 pounds" deal, everyone knows to eat less, 3500 cals = 1 pound right? They start out good then they slip a little then say screw it and hit the all you can eat place LOL. Trading is the SAME way, it's sticking to the plan and not hitting that BUFFET.

1. Once you get the emotion out of it a trade is just that, one trade. After taking 10K+ trades I can be down 10-15k on the day and it does not matter because, I have done this so much I know my money, just like the market, does not go up or down in a straight line.

1. Who cares if it's a good or crazy plan, but it's a plan. We need to have one.

1. Have plan, trade your plan... Don't ask your friends what to do, THEY'LL ALMOST ALWAYS ARE WRONG. This is YOUR Business, you have to know when to strike!

1. It comes with practice and can't be really learned by watching. You need to trade to get confidence. Contrary to popular believe, I don't agree that demo helps. Well, maybe helps you to get used to the new mouse, you just bought, but does nothing to make the psychology your friend... Off course, this is just my opinion, tested in battles.

1. Although many have eyes, some don't use them towards their advantage...
   It's okay though. Some people will never learn how to dance or sing others will never learn how to trade profitably. We're not created equal, as some would want us to believe... No matter how hard I tried, I could never sing...

1. When you have a good plan and spend enough time watching charts, things materialize in front of your eyes and you're already in. Now it's time for the crowd to follow.

1. Those who mastered making money in the sideways moving markets are very good and consistent traders. Any kid can make money when market is trending.

1. Picking probabilities. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. If you have the edge, you ARE marching forward.

Some more quotes from successful traders, whom I admire and follow closely:

 

1. We might not make profit from the opportunities that we miss, but we can certainly learn from them all, and that in itself is valuable.

1. We are all humans (at least most of us) and make mistakes, but failure to learn from them is a poor excuse of a human being.

1. Focus on doing what is right – instead of being right

1. I never think of what happens after because it doesn't matter to me. We are not in a competition. We just need to take our income from the market according to our plan.