I learn to trade J16 [chart with thoughts]

I open this jurnal, as I don't want to gunk around proper James16 chart thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

Hopefully it will be good record of turning into A+ trader .

Please don't rely on wgat I post here!!!

O have over 2 years of experience of watching charts, so I feel comfortable here and there. Here it goes

EU

EDIT:
Somehow I didn't write, what I think about this EU setup. I see there pinbar, but it formed just after very long bearish candle, therefore I expect it to rise not more that that 1.4250 resistance within two days, and then fall further down. That's why I decided not to trade it

Now that s a complicated chart !
What's your timeframe for trading ? Intraday trading based on the daily trend ? Daily trader ? Long term trader?

Intensity,
Here I trade daily chart setups, but after trade is trigger I manage it up to the 1M or 30M chart [still hesitate between those two]

So when I post my could be setups, I pos daily, but when entry order is trigered - I follow it closely on 30 or 1M. To scalp some early and move to BE quickly.

Euro Caught my attention for monday. I posted EURUSD chart above, so won't post the same. Just would like tp give some impression after EU went up as I predicted. On fact I expect another bullish day for this pair and then further decline from tomorrow.

If I didn't post my thoughts on friday, now I would be happy to long EU. This idea would be confirmed by EG long pattern. Howevr I did, I still believe EU is going to turn back down, so will not trade it.

In other hand I had second thoughts today - If I was sure EU will run higher on friday and today [monday] why on earth not to enter quick EU long? Isn't it that what is this business all about?
On my daily charts I saw no A+ patterns, however I expect UJ to fall further down, USDCAD will retrace a bit to rise further, AUDUSD will go up in my opinion, and here I was considered to set long orders, but the longer I watch it the longer I see 50/50 trade with not much of profit potential [to strong resistance]

I have spotted no plain J16 A+ setup, however took some action [four EO]
If any of them work I will post chart. Here some of my thoughts for purpose of keep track of my thoughts:

EU short [previous analisys] [sell @1.4108]

EJ long [IB] ona bottom of last 10 months range and BoJ thretening with "JPY is too strong"

UJ short [IB or DBLH - if it stands for dbl btm lower hihg] this can be nice bounce back from below 61%, that was good support on 19.01.10

GJ long IB or 2day pin

USDCAD I wouldn't call it a short setup, but it's near my 38% and medium S/R level.

AUDUSD formed IB just after hammer, or dragonfly, or what is the name for that... But nothing much more I can see, so will leave it for one more day. I would love to trade it long off 0.8950 [trendline + 23%fib] yesterday low is @ .8980 stay away.


My entry orders on demo are as follows:
EU sell @1.4108
EJ buy @128.29
UJ sell @89.70
GJ buy @147.30
USDCAD sell @1.0510


PS
I will add CHF crosses as it may give more opportunities of trading, I see a lot of CHF charts in H16 room, so maybe I should not waste this chance to practise.


EDIT:
I found nice setup on EURCHF. There was quite a long move down on this pair with no proper retrace, and now there is 2day PB off 23% fib and quite significant support area. I attach a chart where you can see it all [in small white frame there is bigger size picture so you can see my 2day PB]

As for end of 26-01-10 I have made following oservations:

GBPCHF kind a pinbar, but strong trendline down and 62% retracement. I expect price to do something strong.

GJ, bearish OB, short order below

UJ continuation of what I went out today, + bullish OB [entered half @market, rest below 50% fib]

EURCHF i left order from yesterday.


Currently I'm in GJ UJ and EU...

UJ - I like to short it on today pin, that bounced from 62% extension of recent leg up on daily, as some S/R line already formed there and major downtrend is with me as well.

EU follows my predictions on further falls, what really make me proud

EURCHF - finally I deleted buy order, as momentum dispointed me.

GBPCHF - I see very tasty pinbar short I place sell order just below.

My UJ OE didn't triggered, I canceled it later.
I shorted GBPCHF, taken out half over 30 pips profit, and set SL about 20 pips above entry and got hit there. That was pretty tricky bastard I must admit.

Hi there, I've got there i would say PSO - pinbar shaped object on GU. It's not exactly pinbar, but it looks a bit like one.
I believe this pair to go up to 1.6078, and turn nicely lower. I will maybe try to catch it on a way down.

EU caught my attention. There is no formation, but I have a feeling that this pair runs out of momentum.

I see no charts worth posting for today. I placed one order on GU above 1.60 with tight SL and TP before 1.6070.
Here's my comment:

I see UJ going down to 89.29, however as entry point would be around 90, there would be not much to gain there. If I would like to enter this trade, I would wait for price to bounce up off 90.0 and then short with tight SL. [all on 1M chart]

EJ may be very good benchmark for UJ trade, as there is very solid area around 125.64. So EJ certainly will affect UJ Price action. If EJ and UJ will approach their critical regions at the same time I would think of trading both with tight SL.

GJ same as EJ @ 143.63


Shame on me I missed yesterday Outside Bar on USDCAD
It was hardly protected form downside anyway, but price acted on it so perfectly it would be pride just to comment on it...

AUDUSD looks dogy and certainly will give some signal to hunt soon.

As I commented on EU yesterday it looses momentum. I see this pair react off 1.4028 dip on it's way up, and then after one day retrace I will aim for long ride.

My yesterday's predictions about GU was just perfect!

GU Now this pair formed bearish outside bar [BEOB], it will go lower from where is it now, but before falling further it will bounce off somewhere between 1.58 and 1.5850, to penetrate some level around 1.59, so I would short it wit caution below today low 1.5875, but it need to be monitored closely.
As a bigger plan I will wait for price to retrace 50-80 pips off recent resistance first. However if price will turn back first and then proceed below daily low, then there may be no significant bounce off 1.58 area.

EU There is similar bounce on today candle here, but
1. Price didn't close below yesterday's low
2. Very strong resistance area just below corrent level
3. I still think EU is loosing momentum on it's downmove.

UJ didn't touched 90.0 EJ and GJ didn't even touched previous day lows so no trade there. The pair finished as a BUOB, however I see small reason for it to work [like shorting GU] and severe reason to stay away [trend down and general trendlines nearby].

EJ - no specific formation, but very tempting level tested. I think that if it is reversal here, best strategy would be enter above today's high, and when price rise to 127.40 [important daily dip] move SL to break even.
In my opinion if price is not going to reverse up, it will no reach todays high. If it's going to reverse it will proceed very quickly through 127.40.

If it will 128.50 is more than great for first target.

I had GU and EU positions that are already closed and now both pairs are in range mode [loosing momentum?].


Not a single proper J16 setup for now.

However three charts drag my attention today:


UJ short - general trend down, swing down on daily. Retrace on daily chart seems to lose power and Friday candle pops above the line and turn back on nice PPZ

USDCAD short
really attractive inside bar, that additionally is inverted hammer, bounce down off B grade PPZ and on 30M chart there is really nice descending Price Action.
This one will certainly react on Thursday low, but then it will fall freely to nearest level @1,0413 [TP1], and possible further down [TP2 @ 1.0315]

GOLD
I added this metal to my watchlist, and currently see opportunity for good hunting.
Last three months gave clear daily trendline down and last 6 days gave good 30M trendline up. I expect price to fall further and that trendline is good spot to lurk for trade.

Note on a side:
First of all market needs some activity to produce Price Action. Monday, no news, there is no reason to do anything and inside bars on all pairs are not signs of consolidation, but signs of taking day-off.

I have just realised that times, when levels hold best are news release. And I think reason is that prevailing majority of participants of markets at release time are traders that believe in those levels, so random trades that don't respect lines of exporters or carry have no much meaning and definitely have no power to change trend where no one would expect.

I keep my USDCAD short, I don't really like this position, I would not trade it, or if I would I would wait for price to bounce down off 30M trendline down just after breaking last week low.

USDCAD holds trendline I drew on Friday. I closed half on 1:1 RR and set rest to close at 1.0320.

Today I see nice price pattern on USDCHF, that is not J16 signal, however I will watch closely this pair if it retrace to 1.07 to short it on 30min chart.

I will watch closely mini-Dow as it stopped on important PPZ and it may turn lower from here.


Pair I decided to ignore today was GBPCHF as it took too much time to think should I short it or no [there are some reason to short it, but time of considering pros and cons was one of a reason to leave it.

If I were long on UJ I would close it now. In other hand I thing USDCAD will go up and hit 1.0560 in two or three days. Maybe I should consider shorting CADJPY that have just approached nice support on daily chart, Let's see how situation will emerge on daily chart tomorrow...

USDCHF - there is 2day pinbar up. You can judge it as PPZ there, however price was already wandering around area for more than week so I'll skip this one.

EURCHF - I just mention this pair as it is extremely interesting. It stopped in one place after one extremely volatile day, and now it's over one week with totally no move there... Interesting to see this sort of thing...

GOLD 2day pinbar. I like it a lot. There is very solid PPZ here in my opinion, and nice downtrend since beginning of December. I will trade it from yesterday's low...

EU - two reasons to go long: very nice 2day pinbar, and lack of momentum on it's recent downmove.
Big disadvantage for this pair is very strong PPZ just 100 pips above potential entry point, so I will trade it long however It requires much attention

USDCAD - BEOB, what I don't like is that price was on a sharp downtrend for over a week, what I do like is that price have just broken important PPZ, so if this pair would keep corelation with EU, I will possibly trade it.

AUDUSD - 2day PB up that I like: PPZ, and advantage of SWAP.

USDCHF - may turn down here but I would prefere it to go a bit higher before go short.

Hi Krysztau!
I'm lost : what's PPZ ?

PPZ stands for Price Pivot Zone, it means area, where price was bouncing off up or down earlier [or had hard time to cross it].
It's not necessarily one line, rather area 25-50 [maybe more] pips wide. For better information find james16 chart thread - there you'll find all explanation of what do I try to spot here...

I didn't post yesterday as it was really late night. I set short EO on CADJPY, and this was perfect snip. Closed already 2,5% and still keep 1/4 of position going with SL @ BE.

For tonight I really like short AUDUSD. I marked on chart as follows:
yellow: S/R lines above my entry point, white circle marks level that is 10 pips below my EO, and orange Fibonacci extensions calculated between this January high and this February low.

I had problems with internet, here are thought's for 1.03.2010, based on last friday candle

USDCAD - has some potential to fell based on 2D pinbar, some fibs there and position around a middle of a swing low in a channel. there is good entry around 1.0488.

USDCHF - is struggling in a channel right below 61% retracement.with a bottom below 1.06, may be a good trade there...

MINIDOW - very good looking pinbar up with high @ 10400. Whatever you trade watch 10432 [BE up there TP1 below 10500].