USDCAD trend reversal? | Page 140 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

Trend Reversal Confirmed? 0 replies

POLL- Trend Reversal or Retracement 0 replies

Are we close to TREND REVERSAL? 5 replies

Attachments: USDCAD trend reversal?
Exit Attachments

USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,781
  • Edited 11:18am Jan 20, 2010 10:43am | Edited 11:18am
Possible idea:

Hmmm, if gold and oil and can find support, then USDCAD can find resistance, maybe... (UCAD at twice it's average daily range)

**not sure if US crude oil inventory data at 16:30 EST will affect this

http://i48.tinypic.com/io13bn.gif
  • #2,782
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:11pm Jan 20, 2010 7:11pm
Venge: on D tf, $ @ 50ema (resistance?) maybe, but tend to doubt it.
STO & MacD heading up (bullish) 1.0486 50% 1.0540 is 62%

Down TL ( Dec 30-Jan 13) gives TPP @ 1.0630 (did a TPP on the D euro 2 weks ago that gave a TPP of 1.0480 - thought "No way" at that time $ was 1.45ish) Today, thought "summabich" good thing I was short!)

I'm looking long during this retrace with 50% 62% & 1.06ish as targets.
  • #2,783
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:18pm Jan 20, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting bit9ret
Possible idea:

Hmmm, if gold and oil and can find support, then USDCAD can find resistance, maybe... (UCAD at twice it's average daily range)

**not sure if US crude oil inventory data at 16:30 EST will affect this
Good question about oil inventories. Interesting to note that API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories came out today and were drawn down 1802K vs prior build of 1206K. Distillates also down agains last build. And Gas inv. was up tiny compared to prior build of 6824K. But API numbers don't really correlate well with EIA data...So not much use trying to forecast from API data...

My gut is telling me we are in for more USD gains...Not very scientific, but there it is. 1.0580 anyone?
  • #2,784
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:23pm Jan 20, 2010 7:23pm
GBP/Y referred to as Guppy.

I propose that CAD/Y be called Beaver. (due to special interest groups attempts to undermine Canada's national symbol)!

2 things on the D tf Cad/Y I mean BEAVER chart.
1) up TL break with possible TPP 82.50

2) possible H&S pattern with TPP suggesting 84.50


might be worth a glance.

BTW: bit9ret- good input!
  • #2,785
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:31pm Jan 20, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting Scarecru
Venge: on D tf, $ @ 50ema (resistance?) maybe, but tend to doubt it.
STO & MacD heading up (bullish) 1.0486 50% 1.0540 is 62%

Down TL ( Dec 30-Jan 13) gives TPP @ 1.0630 (did a TPP on the D euro 2 weks ago that gave a TPP of 1.0480 - thought "No way" at that time $ was 1.45ish) Today, thought "summabich" good thing I was short!)

I'm looking long during this retrace with 50% 62% & 1.06ish as targets.
Hey Scare! Agree with you on this one. Dailes have been oversold for a while now, and looks like EZ fears etc. have helped the USD with a nice correction. How much life does it have left is the question...?

I think 1.0580 (prior battle zone) is the next likey target and then 1.0625/30. I'd like to see a pullback to 1.0400/20 area and then go long a bounce. Missed the fun this a.m. as I stayed in bed with wonderful company - a cold!
  • #2,786
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:45pm Jan 20, 2010 7:45pm
For folks looking to go long, I'd be pretty happy entering circa 1.0400, depending on PA there. Worked this out in reverse: it's where I'd like to exit my short if possible . Why? Some confluence there:

* old hourly highs are there (old R=new support)
* it's 38% Fib retrace of last big swing up (38% may be all it will retrace before heading north again--dunno--and maybe not even that, given its such a bullish USD move)
* the up TL's of the current move up are around there
* it's a big round fat number of 1.0400.

Moved stop to breakeven now, so not too worried by bull train heading north. Looks like UCAD is finding support in Tokyo session.
  • #2,787
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:08pm Jan 20, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting Vengeance
Hey Scare! Agree with you on this one. Dailes have been oversold for a while now, and looks like EZ fears etc. have helped the USD with a nice correction. How much life does it have left is the question...?

I think 1.0580 (prior battle zone) is the next likey target and then 1.0625/30. I'd like to see a pullback to 1.0400/20 area and then go long a bounce. Missed the fun this a.m. as I stayed in bed with wonderful company - a cold!
Yo! Venge: bit9ret & you are on the same page re: pullback (me too-since angle of the TL on the D was so great & unsustainable).

Going down to 4H & H tf's to look for dips to long.

Feel better soon,Venge (have discovered that poutine,penisillin or beavertail are good fer what ails ya)!
  • #2,788
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:19pm Jan 20, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting bit9ret
For folks looking to go long, I'd be pretty happy entering circa 1.0400, depending on PA there. Worked this out in reverse: it's where I'd like to exit my short if possible . Why? Some confluence there:

* old hourly highs are there (old R=new support)
* it's 38% Fib retrace of last big swing up (38% may be all it will retrace before heading north again--dunno--and maybe not even that, given its such a bullish USD move)
* the up TL's of the current move up are around there
* it's a big round fat number of 1.0400.

Moved stop to breakeven now,...
I got short at 1.04674 with a SL at 1.0498. Where'd you get in? Does look like it's finding some support in Asia...However, gonna throw a TP at 1.0420 and see what happens. After the run up today, I figure it's do for a bit more of a pullback, but that isn't always the case, is it?
  • #2,789
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:23pm Jan 20, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting Scarecru
Feel better soon,Venge (have discovered that poutine,penisillin or beavertail are good fer what ails ya)!
haha Yup. Beavertail cures anything and everything, and thanks! Gonna head back to bed soon...And although I really hate leaving trades unattended, I just can't be assed to care. Not too worried about a few hunder dollar loss at worst case...I figure the reward outweighs the risk. Although, I wouldn't be shocked to wake up tomorrow and see it sitting in the 1.05s with that earlier 1.0430s as the low.

Ciao for now!
  • #2,790
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:42am Jan 21, 2010 10:42am
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Short 1.0501 and 1.0509 sl 1.0550
Reason RSI in extreme on 4h
  • #2,791
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:29pm Jan 21, 2010 5:29pm
After todays selloff in equities and the recent crackup in the Euro there may be more to this financial crisis. Maybe we are entering another leg.
Just seems that cash (USD) is gaining strength pretty consistently.
The U.S. economy is not rebounding at anything other then a slow pace, so the prospects for growth remain muted.
The move into the USD may be from risk avoidance.


Anybody have any ideas?
  • #2,792
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:28pm Jan 21, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting foto
After todays selloff in equities and the recent crackup in the Euro there may be more to this financial crisis. Maybe we are entering another leg.
Just seems that cash (USD) is gaining strength pretty consistently.
The U.S. economy is not rebounding at anything other then a slow pace, so the prospects for growth remain muted.
The move into the USD may be from risk avoidance.


Anybody have any ideas?
Yo FOTO: the grasshoppers are freezing & realizing that the Ants are their salvation. USD & Yen strongest net bought currencies!!? Both economies (from what I read) not exactly stellar performers. I'm not certain, but I be inclined to think risk-AVERSION.

If China's news was good today ( from my limited fundie knowledge) & Australia viewed as a satellite province of the #2 economy; why did OZZIE dive?

2 further ?s similar to your query:
Why did Brown win Mass senate seat?

If a tree falls in the forest & no one is around to hear it- does it still make a sound?

OK 3 further questions: If a man is ALONE in a forest- is he still WRONG?
  • #2,793
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:58pm Jan 21, 2010 6:58pm
Today was uncertain re: US/CAD so remained long ( I am still Bearied; but, like that golfer guy-if an opportunity presents itself I am in there!).

Did good with shorting the Beaver today

Did anyone else make pips? Hope so.
  • #2,794
  • Edited 7:29pm Jan 21, 2010 7:28pm | Edited 7:29pm
Hi Scarecru,
Was just watching Aussie action, clear rejection of the opening spike up strength. Since I tend to be longer term oriented todays events might well be the turning point for the markets. We still have the government buying up equities during selloffs but the market will ultimately do what it wants.

Just have to give it a bit more time to establish a trend.
  • #2,795
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:30pm Jan 21, 2010 7:30pm
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting Kokan
Short 1.0501 and 1.0509 sl 1.0550
Reason RSI in extreme on 4h
Closed at 1.4888. Trailing done good job/
Added some more at 1.0506, 1.0508, 1.0513 and 1.0519 sl from 1.0542 till 1.0576
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD in trade 22.01.2010 RSI in extrem.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #2,796
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:36pm Jan 21, 2010 7:36pm
Just some #s for WTB's fans:

These are DAILY chart.

$> 50 ema (suggests O/B -but may be warning of uptrend to continue)
STO is up-but approaching extreme O/B.
MacD is up ( still < H2O)
$> 50% fib & 62% fib is(1.0545).

So from my view; we got the upper BB, the 62% fib & prev Resistance (Dec 30) as a Confluence of events.

I am long with this level as my limit. If $ goes thru this barrier, then look for yesterday's TPP.
  • #2,797
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:00pm Jan 21, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting Kokan
Closed at 1.4888. Trailing done good job/
Added some more at 1.0506, 1.0508, 1.0513 and 1.0519 sl from 1.0542 till 1.0576
Good stuff Kokan: yer sl's in the 0559 area similar to my 1.0550 resistance.

keep making pips ( & keep posting).
I am near ready to get back to my bear roots.
  • #2,798
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:13pm Jan 21, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting Kokan
Short 1.0501 and 1.0509 sl 1.0550
Reason RSI in extreme on 4h
Personal ? to U.

What RSI parameters do U use ? eg: 9 on D tf, 54 on 4H.

Did you attempt the Beaver ( cad/y) yet?
  • #2,799
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:20pm Jan 21, 2010 8:20pm
never mind: found -ve rsi div on your chart ( I use 9)
  • #2,800
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:55am Jan 22, 2010 1:55am
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting Kokan
Closed at 1.4888. Trailing done good job/
Added some more at 1.0506, 1.0508, 1.0513 and 1.0519 sl from 1.0542 till 1.0576
Stop loss moved to 1.0506. This might bee bear day. Price under daily pivot at 1.0495.
0 traders viewing now